Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The problem is not that they don't know when to stop but that they continue starting. It's the first bet that starts the whole sorry mess again.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Man 1066 has such a lot to answer for.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Man 1066 hasn't been seen since he absconded
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I've been telling everyone fibs today about coming back from Portugal but no one seemed to give a fig
So it's not really about lying either
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
That's all well & good, but Botswana isn't testing much, and besides it's not about number cases per se, it's about the potentially more dangerous variants, which is clearly the 'South African' one in their case.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
I've got a bridge I can sell you.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
I just checked Botswana's figures. They only report figures every three to five days. The current 7 day average is 316 new cases per day, but on the days they don't report the reported cases are obviously zero.
maomao
普費斯
And UK population is 29 times the size of theirs so that's equivalent to over 9,000 cases a day per capita.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
And, they are not testing anywhere near the levels of the UK & US, and if you're not looking, you're not finding.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Might have worked better if the pair of them had actually had the vaccine on screen.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
At least vaccines seem to work just as effectively (?) against that variant, as opposed to against the South African variant </clutches straws ....
>
andysays
Love and solidarity
As I understand it, it hasn't been proved that existing vaccines don't work with the SA variant (which isn't of course the same as proving that they do).At least vaccines seem to work just as effectively (?) against that variant, as opposed to against the South African variant </clutches straws ....
The WHO is still advising use of existing vaccines, even if the SA variant is a likely to be a factor.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
editor
hiraethified
Anyone know anything about this lot? Medic Cities – UK Online Medical Market Place | PCR Testing
I was sent a release saying about their amazeballs testing abilities but it was light on detail.
I was sent a release saying about their amazeballs testing abilities but it was light on detail.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
They lost me at 'we need to re-open today' vibe. Just a money grabbing private company pretending to be doing it for the common good.
Supine
Newt Member
The only question is... Which Tory MP owns them.
sounds about right. Judging by my Zimbabwean mate, who I spoke to the other day. he lives over here but he’s obviously in touch with friends and family. Things are bad there too. Lots of people work in South Africa and went home for Christmas, Family gatherins. Virus everywhere. Hospital s literally full. sick people having to be left at home.
editor
hiraethified
Yep. The 'visionary entrepreneur' London Mayor candidate Farah London has done some sort of deal to endorse them. T... A... C.. K... Y
Supine
Newt Member
From a look on companies House website medicities was setup in Jan and the guy also owns an urban planning and landscaping business. Make of that what you will.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Today's reported figures -
First dose vaccinations now just over 13.5m
New cases - 13,494 from over 760k tests yesterday, overall a drop of 28.6% in the last week.
New deaths - 678, which is down 237 on last Thursday's 915, that brings the 7-day average down to around 754 a day, a drop of 25.9% in the last week.
BCBlues
Lend us a Twenner
editor
hiraethified
It's been posted before but this site is always good for interactive stats
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
The quarantine hotel stuff seems to be another half-arsed project. No daily testing for staff, not the higher quality PPE for staff, people allowed out for smoking and fresh air (reasonable, but has been identified as a route for transmission in Australia), and security staff not exclusively working at the hotels (shift there, shift at supermarket, etc.)
Someone involved in the quarantine hotels in Australia was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning and he was slightly incredulous the UK was doing it this way.
Also the figure I've heard is 21,000 people entering the UK every day. Like wtaf are they coming back from, can't all be essential work abroad?
Someone involved in the quarantine hotels in Australia was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning and he was slightly incredulous the UK was doing it this way.
Also the figure I've heard is 21,000 people entering the UK every day. Like wtaf are they coming back from, can't all be essential work abroad?
ska invita
back on the other side
Here comes Herd Immunity as Open Government Policy
www.ft.com
UK scientists call for debate on allowing ‘big wave of infection’ Advisers to government warn of national discussion after most vulnerable are vaccinated Scientists say the UK needs to have a national discussion on whether a wave of infection should be allowed to take place once all the over 50s have been vaccinated
UK scientific advisers have questioned whether a “big wave of infection” should be allowed to flow through the country’s population once the most vulnerable groups in society have been vaccinated against coronavirus, in comments which may reopen the contentious debate around herd immunity. With prime minister Boris Johnson preparing to set out the road map for lifting England’s Covid-19 lockdown on February 22, the scientists have warned a national discussion will soon be needed on the level of risk people are prepared to accept from the virus in the future.
“There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we’ve vaccinated all the over 50s,” one influential member of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) told the FT. “Are we going to aim for low prevalence or accept high prevalence for a period?” “It boils down to what we, as a society, are prepared to accept,” added Mike Tildesley, an academic at the University of Warwick and also a member of SPI-M.
“We see waves of seasonal influenza and we don’t lockdown every winter, we accept a level of risk. “It’s possible you could run hot in terms of cases, and low in terms of number of hospitalisations and deaths,” he added, noting that having a high R number — which indicates the rate of transmission of the virus — would not necessarily be a bad thing if hospitalisations are low.
The scientists’ comments come as the Covid Recovery Group of 50-plus Tory MPs who are sceptical of lockdowns urge Johnson to set out a road map for exiting the restrictions soon, with some forecasting a “battle royal” between Conservative MPs and the government. Recommended Anjana Ahuja Vaccines have been oversold as the pandemic exit strategy Steve Baker, vice-chair of the CRG, accused some scientists of “failing to recognise their power to spread despair and despondency”.
He added: “Some seem to be floating untested hypotheses in the media. Doing so is not science. It is the death of science. Perhaps worse, it brings scientists squarely into the political domain, something we would I am sure all like to avoid.” Mark Harper, chair of the group, urged the government to stick to its schedule to reopen the economy.
He said: “It’s crucial we don’t backslide on this, not least because the government has said it wants to give schools two weeks notice before they open, and — as the PM said — it is the ‘settled will’ of most MPs that pupils should be back in school on 8 March.” Prof Tildesley cautioned however that if only 10 per cent of the population are left unprotected by the vaccine — in an optimistic scenario — that still leaves millions of people exposed to severe outcomes, including a protracted form of the illness, known as Long-Covid.
The scientific advisers noted that another important factor in the debate is whether the UK should ship vaccine supplies to other countries struggling to inoculate their most vulnerable populations, once all over 50s have received a jab. “If we start vaccinating the young, at that point we will be depriving other people,” said one member of SPI-M. “Global equity is going to become a bigger issue,” added Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). “All public health experts would like vaccination to be used to improve global health rather than focus on individual countries.”
---
UK scientists call for debate on allowing ‘big wave of infection’
Advisers to government warn of national discussion after most vulnerable are vaccinated
UK scientists call for debate on allowing ‘big wave of infection’ Advisers to government warn of national discussion after most vulnerable are vaccinated Scientists say the UK needs to have a national discussion on whether a wave of infection should be allowed to take place once all the over 50s have been vaccinated
UK scientific advisers have questioned whether a “big wave of infection” should be allowed to flow through the country’s population once the most vulnerable groups in society have been vaccinated against coronavirus, in comments which may reopen the contentious debate around herd immunity. With prime minister Boris Johnson preparing to set out the road map for lifting England’s Covid-19 lockdown on February 22, the scientists have warned a national discussion will soon be needed on the level of risk people are prepared to accept from the virus in the future.
“There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we’ve vaccinated all the over 50s,” one influential member of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) told the FT. “Are we going to aim for low prevalence or accept high prevalence for a period?” “It boils down to what we, as a society, are prepared to accept,” added Mike Tildesley, an academic at the University of Warwick and also a member of SPI-M.
“We see waves of seasonal influenza and we don’t lockdown every winter, we accept a level of risk. “It’s possible you could run hot in terms of cases, and low in terms of number of hospitalisations and deaths,” he added, noting that having a high R number — which indicates the rate of transmission of the virus — would not necessarily be a bad thing if hospitalisations are low.
The scientists’ comments come as the Covid Recovery Group of 50-plus Tory MPs who are sceptical of lockdowns urge Johnson to set out a road map for exiting the restrictions soon, with some forecasting a “battle royal” between Conservative MPs and the government. Recommended Anjana Ahuja Vaccines have been oversold as the pandemic exit strategy Steve Baker, vice-chair of the CRG, accused some scientists of “failing to recognise their power to spread despair and despondency”.
He added: “Some seem to be floating untested hypotheses in the media. Doing so is not science. It is the death of science. Perhaps worse, it brings scientists squarely into the political domain, something we would I am sure all like to avoid.” Mark Harper, chair of the group, urged the government to stick to its schedule to reopen the economy.
He said: “It’s crucial we don’t backslide on this, not least because the government has said it wants to give schools two weeks notice before they open, and — as the PM said — it is the ‘settled will’ of most MPs that pupils should be back in school on 8 March.” Prof Tildesley cautioned however that if only 10 per cent of the population are left unprotected by the vaccine — in an optimistic scenario — that still leaves millions of people exposed to severe outcomes, including a protracted form of the illness, known as Long-Covid.
The scientific advisers noted that another important factor in the debate is whether the UK should ship vaccine supplies to other countries struggling to inoculate their most vulnerable populations, once all over 50s have received a jab. “If we start vaccinating the young, at that point we will be depriving other people,” said one member of SPI-M. “Global equity is going to become a bigger issue,” added Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). “All public health experts would like vaccination to be used to improve global health rather than focus on individual countries.”
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I tend to respect the majority of FT articles that I get to see, but that one above is a complete mess, absolutely riddled with inconsistencies!
And as for this from Mike Tildesley, Universityof Warwick**, talking about after all over-50s have been vaccinated :
[**so what are his credentials, then?
]
You what, you what, you what???
And as for those CRG Tories...... x 10,000
And as for this from Mike Tildesley, Universityof Warwick**, talking about after all over-50s have been vaccinated :
[**so what are his credentials, then?
]Financial Times said:
You what, you what, you what???
And as for those CRG Tories......
x 10,000
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souljacker
innit
I'd support this. A fight to the death. Last man standing wins a chicken dinner. A couple of tories are ex-SAS so it would be an interesting fight. Johnson would probably be out early thankfully but Patel could be a contender because she'd be the most evil person out there. I reckon she could be in the final 10 due to being incredibly devious.
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