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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Just my own thinking based on nothing other than paranoid intuition, but do people predict that we will for a long long time living under some sort of restriction because of the threat of new varients, or will it operate like the flu, I. E vaccinate the old, upgrade vax each year?

I ask because I can easily speculate (stress on speculate, based on nowt) that we get a hold of it this summer, lock downs etc almost cease and then bang, new varients and we're back to square one?
 
Just my own thinking based on nothing other than paranoid intuition, but do people predict that we will for a long long time living under some sort of restriction because of the threat of new varients, or will it operate like the flu, I. E vaccinate the old, upgrade vax each year?

I ask because I can easily speculate (stress on speculate, based on nowt) that we get a hold of it this summer, lock downs etc almost cease and then bang, new varients and we're back to square one?

I'm sure the vaccine suppliers will be happy to produce annual supplies :)

Could be topups every 2-3 years if mutation rates stay lower than flu.
 
I'm sure the vaccine suppliers will be happy to produce annual supplies :)

Could be topups every 2-3 years if mutation rates stay lower than flu.
It feels like the light at the 3nd of the tunnel is growing brighter these last few days.
 
How do you mean, cos it was table service only? i'd imagined that is how they would open again for a while at least, anyway.

I did / do miss standing at the bar in my local though. Much prefer standing up to drink.
aye, and the social distancing
 
We do seem to have an awfully long way to go before we can get down to c1000 new cases a day that makes things 'manageable' to consider reopening - still at 19,000 a day, as I understand it :(

Yes, but the peak less than a month ago was nearly 60,000. Of course it will depend on the extent to which that curve starts to flatten out, but direction of travel is positive.

Talk of slackening lockdown now seems very premature... We're still not at the levels achieved in November (at least not by the base infection rates). Course it will depend on government thinking as regards vaccine effectiveness etc.
 
Yes, but the peak less than a month ago was nearly 60,000. Of course it will depend on the extent to which that curve starts to flatten out, but direction of travel is positive.

Talk of slackening lockdown now seems very premature... We're still not at the levels achieved in November (at least not by the base infection rates). Course it will depend on government thinking as regards vaccine effectiveness etc.

Yeah, I wont deliver my own verdict about whether various relaxations from April onwards are a terrible idea, an OK idea or how likely the government are to get away with them, until quite a bit closer to the time. My opinion will be based on things like vaccine data, and whether the downwards trajectory continues at rapid pace or whether things get stuck at a certain level. And we are absolutely going to have to recalibrate our sense of what counts as a bad level of infection, since even before the insanely high climb to a peak began rapidly at the start of December, levels were stupidly high by previous standards. But now look rather low compared to how high the peak was. But they arent rather low, so I am quite glad there was some talk of 1000 infections per day to try to help reset the sense of what good looks like, what a reasonable target looks like, getting back to thinking about the sort of levels of infection that were considered a bad sign that needed dealing with last summer.

I doubt even the anti-lockdown shitheads expect any relaxation right now. They have probably started their incessant pressure about this now because they think they can dare to spout their shit now we are past the peak of this wave, and because they think the sooner they start the sooner they will get their way, and because Johnson is due to provide some tentative unlocking timetable/targets in the middle of February.

Schools will be the first thing to discuss, and I suppose I was surprised there wasnt more talk here of things Scotland and Wales announced in this regard in recent days, and I did no better since I didnt get a chance look into what was announced properly at all yet. I'm not even completely sure which UK nations announced stuff, I just saw some headlines in recent days.
 
My niece (25) has just tested positive. Couple of interesting things about this are that; she was vaccinated 14 days ago, she lives with a vulnerable person and swears she's been careful, and she was pretty ill last April and convinced she had it then (but was not tested). Lives in Hackney.
 
Anyway caught a bit on radio about this pressure to reopone ASAP again. Much as I still miss the pub, cinema... Any where to go basically, it would be criminal to open up whilst cases and hospitalisation numbers are still this high.

Spot the problem
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My niece (25) has just tested positive. Couple of interesting things about this are that; she was vaccinated 14 days ago, she lives with a vulnerable person and swears she's been careful, and she was pretty ill last April and convinced she had it then (but was not tested). Lives in Hackney.

Entirely possible to have been vaccinated 14 days ago and have caught it, I think iirc correctly infection rates actually go up in the immediate post-vaccination days (5-7 or something) that's tentatively been put down to people relaxing with restrictions. What day post-vaccination did she start with symptoms? Very unlikely she had it in April though if she's got it now. I know loads of people that swear they had it but when questioned in detail it clearly could have been a few other things.
 
Entirely possible to have been vaccinated 14 days ago and have caught it, I think iirc correctly infection rates actually go up in the immediate post-vaccination days (5-7 or something) that's tentatively been put down to people relaxing with restrictions. What day post-vaccination did she start with symptoms? Very unlikely she had it in April though if she's got it now. I know loads of people that swear they had it but when questioned in detail it clearly could have been a few other things.

No I agree with you, the number of people (on here alone) who were certain they'd had it by March 31st was...unlikely. And I know about the research you mention as well, people being a bit vaccine cavalier. With my niece I find it interesting purely because I do know her quite well and do trust her when she says she's been careful (she is a sensible soul). It does seem to suggest it's ridiculously easy to catch. I don't know when her symptoms started.
 
Even with high protection some people are going to catch it, and it is also going to be very hard for some people to keep sticking to the restrictions post-vaccination. I was surprised how relieved I felt to get my jab, and I can totally see how tempting it would be to slacken off if there were people you wanted to spend time with or things you really wanted to do.

(Wrote before saw your post above planetgeli )
 
My niece (25) has just tested positive. Couple of interesting things about this are that; she was vaccinated 14 days ago, she lives with a vulnerable person and swears she's been careful, and she was pretty ill last April and convinced she had it then (but was not tested). Lives in Hackney.

Very unlikely to get it twice.

As the people in Israel have discovered, vaccinations aren't instant protection.
 
Pubs in Scotland (and perhaps Wales?) were open and not serving booze at various points in autumn, how did it work out there? I'd be fine with it tbf. But then, I'd be fine with that permanently so I guess I'm not the best person to ask...
 
Very unlikely to get it twice.

The SA variant (one of them anyway) seems able to reinfect without any lack of efficiency - in the Novavax(?) trial in SA people in the control group who had had confirmed infections before caught it at the same rate as people in that group who hadn’t (about 4%) - it is presumed that it was the new variant (inc E484K substitution I believe) as it was the prevalent strain at the time of the trial.

It’s still rare here though at the moment so unlikely to be that yet. But you can catch it twice.
 
i dont agree with some of the opinions here about how unlikely it was for people to have caught it by the end of last March, or how unlikely people are to catch it twice by this stage. Yes there will be some false impressions in some peoples minds about whether they had it back then, but I cannot rule individual cases in or out of that and a really large number of people had caught it by then.
 
And I suspect the reinfection picture is complicated, and I certainly dont feel like I have an accurate sense of that stuff yet. Especially not for people that may be repeatedly exposed to lots of high viral loads from different strains, such as healthcare workers in certain roles.

Meanwhile I see the BBC has taken another look at PPE and some of the disgraceful decisions that were made on this front last year.


I'm running late with starting my break but am still planning to have one.
 
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