Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

There has already been detailed analysis of eat out to help out which suggested a significant role in increasing cases, so I dont know where your claim about no major increase in cases comes from. People here (not me initially) certainly noticed the increase in cases in daily published data during the latter part of August, and by the start of September the testing system was under incredible strain, which itself was a giant warning of what was to come.

I dont think there was any great mystery about why case numbers were relatively low over summer - things take time to bounce back. So the effects of a long lockdown took some time to reverse, and the unlocking happened gradually. The resurgence likely followed a very similar dynamic to what we would have observed at the start of the very first wave if we had proper surveillance of those first wave beginnings at the time, which we did not. It takes time for multiple generations of infection to occur involving the exponential growth that eventually causes quite small numbers to become very large ones. And since we never went back to 100% normality over summer, the resurgence resembled things resembled happening in slow motion for ages, until a point came where that was no longer the case and the numbers involved were large again.

We can apply the same sort of logic to the threat of a third wave. If we completely relaxed now, when infection levels are still high, then the time required for things to bounce back would be short. But if we wait until the numbers have been pushed down to pretty low levels, it will take longer before another resurgence would get back to high levels again.

Chuck some seasonal factors into the mix, whether schools etc are open, and the idea that once community cases go beyond a certain threshold the chances of shielding non-Covid hospital patients, care home residents and older people in society from the virus rapidly diminish.

 

[elbows]

I picked the wrong time to try to take a break, but I will still try over the weekend and the start of next week at least. I am trying to resist wading through the SAGE minutes myself at the moment.

Newly-released minutes from a meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 21 January, conclude that only a "complete, pre-emptive closure of borders or the mandatory quarantine of all visitors upon arrival in designated facilities, irrespective of testing history, can get close to fully preventing the importation of cases or new variants".
Responding to media reports earlier this week about Sage's views, No 10 said the committee put forward policy options rather than recommendations and it believed its discussions would show that existing measures, including pre-departure testing were "effective in mitigating risks".

Thats from:

Covid-19: No contracts awarded yet for hotel quarantine plan

 

[platinumsage]

There has already been detailed analysis of eat out to help out which suggested a significant role in increasing cases, so I dont know where your claim about no major increase in cases comes from.

Perhaps from the unpublished analysis touted by the Treasury press office last week and uncritically covered by the media:

The Treasury’s attempt to repair Eat Out to Help Out's reputation is dubious

 

[Cid]

There has already been detailed analysis of eat out to help out which suggested a significant role in increasing cases, so I dont know where your claim about no major increase in cases comes from. People here (not me initially) certainly noticed the increase in cases in daily published data during the latter part of August, and by the start of September the testing system was under incredible strain, which itself was a giant warning of what was to come.

I dont think there was any great mystery about why case numbers were relatively low over summer - things take time to bounce back. So the effects of a long lockdown took some time to reverse, and the unlocking happened gradually. The resurgence likely followed a very similar dynamic to what we would have observed at the start of the very first wave if we had proper surveillance of those first wave beginnings at the time, which we did not. It takes time for multiple generations of infection to occur involving the exponential growth that eventually causes quite small numbers to become very large ones. And since we never went back to 100% normality over summer, the resurgence resembled things resembled happening in slow motion for ages, until a point came where that was no longer the case and the numbers involved were large again.

We can apply the same sort of logic to the threat of a third wave. If we completely relaxed now, when infection levels are still high, then the time required for things to bounce back would be short. But if we wait until the numbers have been pushed down to pretty low levels, it will take longer before another resurgence would get back to high levels again.

Chuck some seasonal factors into the mix, whether schools etc are open, and the idea that once community cases go beyond a certain threshold the chances of shielding non-Covid hospital patients, care home residents and older people in society from the virus rapidly diminish.

I probably shouldn't have mentioned 'eat out to help out'... I was just looking at hospitalization stats.

 

[elbows]

Perhaps from the unpublished analysis touted by the Treasury press office last week and uncritically covered by the media:

The Treasury’s attempt to repair Eat Out to Help Out's reputation is dubious

Cheers, I had missed that attempt at reputation management.

 

[elbows]

I probably shouldn't have mentioned 'eat out to help out'... I was just looking at hospitalization stats.

Given how much attention 'local lockdowns' such as Leicesters, and some other reports about how the virus was never driven down to low levels in some communities in lockdown 1 (eg some sections of society in the North West) received at the time, I was a bit disappointed that there wasnt more focus on how even in those areas, hospitalisation figures fell to quite low levels over summer and didnt bounce back until the viral resurgence happened more widely and infection levels went through the roof.

 

[andysays]

I picked the wrong time to try to take a break...

Take care of yourself

 

[cupid_stunt]

Today's reported figures...

First dose vaccinations now 10,971,047.

New cases - 19,114, overall a drop of 26.5% in the last week.

New deaths - 1,014, which is down 231 on last Friday's 1,245. That brings the 7-day average down to 984 a day, below 1,000 at last, and a drop of 17.8% in the last week.

 

[StoneRoad]

Today's reported figures...

First dose vaccinations now 10,971,047.

New cases - 19,114, overall a drop of 26.5% in the last week.

New deaths - 1,014, which is down 231 on last Friday's 1,245. That brings the 7-day average down to 984 a day, below 1,000 at last, and a drop of 17.8% in the last week.

There's something weird going on with the ventilation figures.
C&P direct from the dashboard ...

04-02-2021	6,847
03-02-2021	3,628
02-02-2021	3,638
01-02-2021	3,726
31-01-2021	3,687
30-01-2021	3,806

I really hope that's a typo for today's total

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

There's something weird going on with the ventilation figures.
C&P direct from the dashboard ...

04-02-2021	6,847
03-02-2021	3,628
02-02-2021	3,638
01-02-2021	3,726
31-01-2021	3,687
30-01-2021	3,806

I really hope that's a typo for today's total

Currently says on there:

05 February 2021
Due to an issue with the processing of healthcare data for England, the most recent figures are incorrect. We are working to fix the issue and will publish corrected figures as soon as possible.

So I guess that's one of the figures affected. No need to panic!

 

[elbows]

I dread to think of what sorts of manual data processing tasks are still required to get all data shown by the dashboard updated every day, or how fragile any automated processing is.

Some weeks ago when they came to add the weekly ONS etc Covid-19 death certificate deaths to the dashboard, they accidentally added figures for all deaths from all causes for that week instead! At least they corrected that particular mistake.

Anyway I believe they fixed the healthcare data and the UK mechanical ventilation figure now shows 3,572.

When looking for the very latest healthcare figures I often have to bypass overall UK figures and look at individual nations instead, because the dashboard is usually an additional day behind for Scotland, Wales and Northern Irelands figures, and some of Northern Irelands health figures get changed retroactively (eg their figures for number of Covid-19 patients in hospital tend to get added to further as the days go by, similar to how data accumulates over time for the deaths by date of death figures). Some figures from the individual nations can sometimes be a day or two late to show up on the UK dashboard compared to when they are available from other official sources, or in the case of England, available on the dashboard if you look at figures for that nation instead of UK figures. For example that UK figure of 3,572 includes Englands figure for that day of 3,275, but I can already see that the day after thats figure for England is 3,217, either by looking at England on the dashboard, or by clicking the 'by nation' option on the UK bits of the dashboard, or by looking at the daily spreadsheet at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[BigMoaner]

does hotter weather kill covid?

Today's reported figures...

First dose vaccinations now 10,971,047.

New cases - 19,114, overall a drop of 26.5% in the last week.

New deaths - 1,014, which is down 231 on last Friday's 1,245. That brings the 7-day average down to 984 a day, below 1,000 at last, and a drop of 17.8% in the last week.

Cheers for update

 

[elbows]

does hotter weather kill covid?

The simple answer is that it probably has some effect, but we saw in countries such as the USA that any seasonal advantage gained in summer was not enough to prevent plenty of infections and deaths at that stage of this pandemic, if you dont carry on with other measures and come out of lockdown based only on a calendar and political stupidity rather than epidemiological data.

I would generally expect behavioural, environmental and health factors that vary with the seasons to have an impact on respiratory viruses and their ability to thrive and cause the most severe strain on hospitals etc. Just avoid thinking about it in a binary way. I tend to think of it in the same way that no single measure was enough to protect us from the pandemic, we had to use combinations of measures to get the R below 1. So my default assumption is that the seasons may have an impact on R, some seasons may give us more wiggle room and some seasons make things worse. The first summer with the virus was not enough to thwart the virus on its own, it did not push R down enough on its own. And if we think in terms of tipping points, the relative effects in our favour in seasons such as summer may be more likely to tip us over into the 'doing quite well' zone more in future once other factors relating to immunity etc are more in our favour than they were when the virus was new to every body and there were no vaccines.

And certainly dont think only of heat, human behaviour is probably quite a factor, and perhaps human health seasonal variations (vitamin D etc), but also perhaps number of hours of daylight since UV light is a threat to the virus when its outside a host, and I assume hours of sunlight affects our bodies too, beyond the usual vitamin D focus.

 

[Artaxerxes]

does hotter weather kill covid?
Cheers for update

I don't know if its like the common cold which incubates better at lower temperatures, but hot weather has the effect of increasing ventilation, ensuring people go outside to mingle and generally boosts the immune system via sun exposure and exercise. This should assist lowering transmission but not kill it.

 

[2hats]

does hotter weather kill covid?

It's more complex than that.

 

[2hats]

I am trying to resist wading through the SAGE minutes myself at the moment.

Couple of interesting points:

30. CO-CIN data indicate that there are differences in the age and sex distribution of people being hospitalised in the second wave when compared to the first, including an indication of an increase in hospitalisations of younger women.
31. The underlying reasons for this are unknown. There is no evidence yet that this is due to new variant. ONS is doing further analysis of CO-CIN data, though difficulty in obtaining unified data on occupation makes any analysis relating to this challenging.

I noticed that in the government briefing slide this other day (standing out from the expected COVID and age pyramid M:F asymmetries):

Younger males less likely to seek medical help and/or a reflection of exposure by job/workplace type and/or childcare duties and the inequalities thereof?

 

[Sunray]

I am done with the concept of 'Covid secure' which cannot ever be true when a virus whose size is measured in nanometers.

Read it as 'Covid stupid' now.

 

[Sunray]

I was surprised by the news of the Sputnik V vaccine. When Putin authorised and took it after phase 2 trials, the world went "Those crazy Russians again".
But if the Russian data is to be believed (hmmm Winter Olympics) its got 91% efficacy. This is great, the more of these vaccines that work the quicker the world will put this behind us.
Its two different vaccines.

I didn't realise, a second dose of a different vaccine might be the better booster shot.

Talk on Sputnik V

 

[Badgers]

Pint of cordial and a Scotch egg in April lads?

 

[MBV]

I think that has the potential to go wrong with people either pre drinking or taking hip flasks in.

 

[William of Walworth]

Re-opening pubs with no option for alcohol has always seemed fairly pointless to me.

Personally/selfishly , I'd rather wait until May or June for proper pints!

But I suppose there might be a case for a soft and safe earlier stage maybe??

Presumably this would be limited numbers, table service only, etc., as before.

And no doubt Wales and Scotland and NI would do things somewhat differently anyway.

 

[The39thStep]

I think that has the potential to go wrong with people either pre drinking or taking hip flasks in.

Cant be trusted eh?

 

[Badgers]

Any chance this is more about removing financial support from the hospitality industry?

 

[editor]

I think that has the potential to go wrong with people either pre drinking or taking hip flasks in.

Or just go for drugs. It'll be like the birth of rave all over again!

I can see how reopening some community pubs may be a real boon to those living on their own but I'm not sure how it would work with pubs firmly associated with full on partying/boozing

 

[platinumsage]

Absurd idea which probably never actually got serious consideration but makes a good headline. I can imagine people necking takeaway pints on the pavement and then going back in to sit down.

 

[William of Walworth]

Any chance this is more about removing financial support from the hospitality industry?

The above Telegraph text was a bit too small for me to read easily -- how do you reach that possibility?
Not saying you're wrong, just wondering.

 

[Sunray]

This government is dumb as fuck. Oh look something is happening, don't know why, but we can open up hurrah!
What is the point of opening up a public enclosed space if there isn't anything to do other than spread covid-19?

It appears the pandemic preparedness book was written in crayon.

 

[Looby]

The above Telegraph text was a bit too small for me to read easily -- how do you reach that possibility?
Not saying you're wrong, just wondering.

Because they could remove support if the venue is open even if it can’t fully trade or even break even.

 

[Orang Utan]

I’m deffo staying away from them the day the pubs reopen. It’ll be carnage, worse than an NYE

 

[xenon]

I’m deffo staying away from them the day the pubs reopen. It’ll be carnage, worse than an NYE

They said that last summer, and it wasn’t. Well not everywhere.