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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Really good point made by Pagelmeister in the Indy sage presentation today. Vaccinating the older population will help the death figures but really won't impact #'s in ICU's / admissions for some time.

The age breakdown of the population and their representation in terms of cases, admissions and deaths shown in this graph.

7259E310-0B0F-4B3B-9D6F-3C24E6CAFCDF.jpeg
 
I know the Telegraphs own correction has already been discussed on the thread about him, but I feel the need to add BBC coverage of it to this pandemic thread.


The July 2020 article claimed the common cold could provide "natural immunity" to Covid-19 and London was "probably approaching herd immunity".

The Telegraph referred to surveys listed in an article on Young's own Lockdown Sceptics website in its defence, but the Ipso committee judged these did not accurately reflect "how herd immunity is reached and whether it exists in London".

"While some of the things I wrote in that article would be contested by some scientists, they would be confirmed by others... Have we achieved herd immunity in London? I think that's an open question and the 'case' data is unreliable because of the well-documented shortcomings of the PCR test.

An open question, not :facepalm: Unless his version of herd immunity involved thousands of people still being hospitalised, in which case what bloody use would that be anyway? What a fuckwit.
 
I know the Telegraphs own correction has already been discussed on the thread about him, but I feel the need to add BBC coverage of it to this pandemic thread.








An open question, not :facepalm: Unless his version of herd immunity involved thousands of people still being hospitalised, in which case what bloody use would that be anyway? What a fuckwit shit for brains.
fify
 
Really good point made by Pagelmeister in the Indy sage presentation today. Vaccinating the older population will help the death figures but really won't impact #'s in ICU's / admissions for some time.

The age breakdown of the population and their representation in terms of cases, admissions and deaths shown in this graph.

View attachment 249217
That's rather discouraging, in terms of vaccination being able to impact figures I had assumed much more of the hospital/ICU intake would be 70+ - is this because older people are more likely to die from symptoms aren't as severe, eg they never get to hospital before they die?
 
And now the figure for the 11th Jan that I mentioned going over 900 earlier, is only just below 1000, on 998.

UK Deaths by date of death within 28 days of a positive test:

View attachment 249139
Am I reading the first chart on the Government's website correctly that the 3 previous highest number of deaths per day (based on date of death and the revised 28 day limit) were 998 (9 April), 999 (7 April) and 1,072 (8 April)? If so, the 11th looks like it will be at least the second highest so far in the UK. :(

Deaths | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)
 
That's rather discouraging, in terms of vaccination being able to impact figures I had assumed much more of the hospital/ICU intake would be 70+ - is this because older people are more likely to die from symptoms aren't as severe, eg they never get to hospital before they die?

She said it was because old frail people are not always put into ICU because it's too damaging to the body or something like that.
 
And finally, admissions covering the entire pandemic data available so far, so the size of admissions at the moment can be compared to the first wave.

Different regions and nations charts use very different scales, so dont use these to compare the size of admissions in different places with each other, just the shape and trends over time.

View attachment 249208
Scotland and Wales have managed to keep their 2nd wave admissions lower than 1st wave so far...but none of the English regions have.
 
Am I reading the first chart on the Government's website correctly that the 3 previous highest number of deaths per day (based on date of death and the revised 28 day limit) were 998 (9 April), 999 (7 April) and 1,072 (8 April)? If so, the 11th looks like it will be at least the second highest so far in the UK. :(

Deaths | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

Yes that sounds right.

Even worse than the grim detail of whatever peak level we reach this time, is the fact that there have already been over 4000 more deaths since September 1st than there were before September 1st (by this particular 28 days of positive test measure, other measures especially ONS/death certificate will have larger first wave totals). And a lot of the deaths will happen after the peak, on the downward curve. So the overall total and the comparison between waves will feature really horrible numbers.
 
Scotland and Wales have managed to keep their 2nd wave admissions lower than 1st wave so far...but none of the English regions have.

When it comes to admission figures I would pay attention both to the peak levels reached but also how high the levels are over time. ie the total area occupied by Scotlands admissions curve in the second wave hardly compares favourably to the totals over time in the first wave. Plus admissions can be influenced by other limits to the admissions system, limits to how many people can actually be admitted in one day, or changes to admissions policies to try to manage demand. Wales figures are also complicated by the inclusion of suspected cases that are not included in data from other regions. And there are the other usual complications including these figures including hospital diagnoses that stemmed from people catching it in hospital or coming into hospital for another reason but having happened to have caught covid before admission.
 
Advice please! I received a negative test result, that was really impressively quick.
But sense of smell is worse not better (can only smell things if i basically touch them with my nose and even then its distorted like bad translation).
Apart from that just mild body aches, no cough don't think any fever.
I want to know if it could be a false negative - can't find any reliable source for how likely that is. ("between 2 and 30%"??)
Is it possible i tested too early, test was well within 24 hours of first noticing the malfunctioning nose.
Otherwise I'm totally stumped what could be causing this and a bit scared tbh. I think anyway I'd be best not to see anyone or go to the shops for at least a day or two.
 
Advice please! I received a negative test result, that was really impressively quick.
But sense of smell is worse not better (can only smell things if i basically touch them with my nose and even then its distorted like bad translation).
Apart from that just mild body aches, no cough don't think any fever.
I want to know if it could be a false negative - can't find any reliable source for how likely that is. ("between 2 and 30%"??)
Is it possible i tested too early, test was well within 24 hours of first noticing the malfunctioning nose.
Otherwise I'm totally stumped what could be causing this and a bit scared tbh. I think anyway I'd be best not to see anyone or go to the shops for at least a day or two.
IMO
yes it sounds very much like you have some of the classic symptoms, you should act as if you are positive
yes it could be because it was too early into it -problem is depending on your condition, doing it later is when its harder to make it to get a test!
good luck with it all
 
Advice please! I received a negative test result, that was really impressively quick.
But sense of smell is worse not better (can only smell things if i basically touch them with my nose and even then its distorted like bad translation).
Apart from that just mild body aches, no cough don't think any fever.
I want to know if it could be a false negative - can't find any reliable source for how likely that is. ("between 2 and 30%"??)
Is it possible i tested too early, test was well within 24 hours of first noticing the malfunctioning nose.
Otherwise I'm totally stumped what could be causing this and a bit scared tbh. I think anyway I'd be best not to see anyone or go to the shops for at least a day or two.

You need to stay home. You have classic symptoms but luckily so far it sounds like a mild illness.
 
I’d isolate for the ten days based on those symptoms, get a second test if you can. Obviously it could be a total coincidence but it’s not worth the risk.
 
So we should brace ourselves for the inevitable interviews from people forced to cut short their trips and banging on about how unfair it all this.
Will this do for now?

Covid: 'Urgent' aviation support plea over travel curbs
The UK's aviation sector "urgently" needs more government support if it is to survive another long period of travel curbs, industry groups say.
From Monday, all travel corridors to the UK will be closed to prevent the arrival of any new variants of Covid. Airport operators said the move was understandable, but warned that it would deepen the crisis for the sector.
 
Advice please! I received a negative test result, that was really impressively quick.
But sense of smell is worse not better (can only smell things if i basically touch them with my nose and even then its distorted like bad translation).
Apart from that just mild body aches, no cough don't think any fever.
I want to know if it could be a false negative - can't find any reliable source for how likely that is. ("between 2 and 30%"??)
Is it possible i tested too early, test was well within 24 hours of first noticing the malfunctioning nose.
Otherwise I'm totally stumped what could be causing this and a bit scared tbh. I think anyway I'd be best not to see anyone or go to the shops for at least a day or two.

I work in acute medicine (too thick and too lazy to be a doctor, so don't credit me with that level), and my thought processes (it's not advice) in your position would be:

You've had a negative test, so are allowed to go back to normal.
It could be a false negative, but it's much, much more likely to have been a genuine negative.
I'd have a think about what I'd been doing the last 10 days and make a judgement if catching it was even likely.
Loss or change of sense of smell isn't rare, it happens with a few things, colds for example. Lost or changed sense of smell
The brain does play very convincing tricks on us with things like this, especially if anxiety is a factor, and especially with vague things like mild body aches.
If isolating isn't really hard then maybe I'd do that anyway to be safe, and maybe get another test if things are the same or have worsened in a few days.
I'd try and calm down and not worry and as much as possible not think about it.

Hope you feel better soon.
 
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There might be a better thread for this but anyway. Popped up in my Facebook feed. https://gb.c19proventstudy.com/?utm...gn=23846221664120534&atid=PROUKENMF0001948#!/
What is the PROVENT Study?
The PROVENT Study will research a combination of 2 investigational monoclonal antibodies for the prevention of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The study is looking at how well the investigational antibodies work and how safe they are.
 
The florist across the street from us (which has always previously been only a florist, and which constantly reduces the pavement space for social distancing with big displays) which should very definitely be closed under current Scottish Government regulations, even for click and collect, has opened today with a couple of trays of carrots and potatoes outside, in a very cynical attempt to claim essential business status to justify opening. Mr W is busy writing to our MSP about it.
 
There might be a better thread for this but anyway. Popped up in my Facebook feed. https://gb.c19proventstudy.com/?utm...gn=23846221664120534&atid=PROUKENMF0001948#!/
What is the PROVENT Study?
The PROVENT Study will research a combination of 2 investigational monoclonal antibodies for the prevention of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The study is looking at how well the investigational antibodies work and how safe they are.

There's a whole thread on treatments and possible treatments.
 
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