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two sheds said:
You might think so :( perhaps on the masks they're sending out : :hmm:

Eta: Mind you most stuff gets sent out by sea doesn't it? Has taken a fair bit more than 9 days when I've ordered stuff not realizing it was coming from China. Otherwise tends to go to a holding area over here.
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4 to 6 weeks by sea (usually closer to 4) a couple of days by air.
 
OneStrike said:
Was just thinking the same, elbows should be doing Merch!
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Thanks, though I never really know what to say to stuff like that. And I've not been trying to cover everything, eg I havent given running totals for countries. I'm mostly trying to pick the significant events/indicators. And my sources arent all that broad really, and lots of the unknowns might stay that way for ages. So there might be a lot of repetition here if the same themes keep coming up, especially if new people start joining in as the coronavirus starts to show up more on their radar.
 
Fez909 said:
Is there a meme/panic/fear-mongering thread? I keep coming across loads of mental articles that I feel the need to share, but this thread is good and useful and I don't want to ruin it. :hmm:
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Yeah, it’s a shame that all articles can’t be shared and disseminated appropriately without fear of being barked at by a small rabble of self anointed gatekeeper’s.
 
Marty1 said:
self anointed gatekeeper’s.
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Do not anoint yourself with sesame oil.

15.png


Posted for a dual purpose, since it also answers more of the earlier question about disinfectants.
 
I find this assessment fascinating:

During an appearance before the House Committee on Ways and Means on Capitol Hill, Azar said the United States can still expect to see new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus as the response efforts now focus on containing the spread of the disease on American soil, but he said that doesn't mean there will necessarily be a large number of people who will need to be hospitalized.

Has he forgotten one in five need ICU? Stay at home means infect housemates. Madness.

On France's sudden rise in cases 12 are related to the 55 year old in ICU in Oise, Amiens.

Parmi les nouveaux cas figurent "12 nouveaux cas liés au patient infecté dans l'Oise", a précisé Olivier Véran, précisant qu'ils "semblent être liés entre par une chaîne de contamination". Un voyage en Egypte est à l'origine de deux cas, a annoncé le directeur de la Santé, Jérôme Salomon. "Nous avons ensuite des cas isolés", a-t-il continué, notamment un cas de retour d'Italie hospitalisé à la Pitié-Salpêtrière et une personne prise en charge à Montpellier. Suivez notre direct.

This virus makes less and less sense a trip to Egypt is at the origin of two cases?
 
I heard of a case of a person who was infected, confirmed by a test, recovered and was released from hospital and then a few weeks later was tested again and had again become infected.

Did anyone else hear that or see a link anywhere?
 
Another one of these early/late warning signs of broader community spread:

MADRID (AFP) - Spanish health authorities said on Thursday (Feb 27) they were investigating the first suspected cases of local transmission of the deadly coronavirus in the country, including an elderly man who was in "serious" condition in hospital.

Three people are in hospital - two in Madrid and one in Seville - with the flu-like disease and have no known travel to a country with an outbreak of the virus, said the chief coordinator for health emergencies at Spain's health ministry.

Neither did they have any connection to a known patient, health emergencies coordinator Fernando Simon told a news conference.
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www.straitstimes.com

Coronavirus: Spain probes first suspected cases of local transmissions

MADRID (AFP) - Spanish health authorities said on Thursday (Feb 27) they were investigating the first suspected cases of local transmission of the deadly coronavirus in the country, including an elderly man who was in "serious" condition in hospital. Read more at straitstimes.com.
www.straitstimes.com www.straitstimes.com
 

Detection of low level of COVID-19 virus in pet dog

A spokesman for the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said today (February 28) that a pet dog had been tested weak positive to COVID-19 virus. The...
www.info.gov.hk

The AFCD received a referral from the Department of Health on February 26 that a dog of a patient infected with COVID-19 disease virus will be handed over to the AFCD. Staff of the AFCD picked up the dog from a residential flat at Tai Hang in the evening on the same day and sent the dog to the animal keeping facility at the Hong Kong Port of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. Oral, nasal and rectal samples were collected for testing of COVID-19 virus. The nasal and oral cavity samples were tested weak positive to COVID-19 virus. The dog does not have any relevant symptoms.
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At present, the AFCD does not have evidence that pet animals can be infected with COVID-19 virus or can be a source of infection to people. The Department will conduct close monitoring of the above dog and collect further samples for testing to confirm if the dog has really been infected with the virus or this is a result of environmental contamination of the dog's mouth and nose. Repeated tests will be conducted for the dog and it will only be returned when the test result is negative
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weltweit said:
First, I think the fatality rate might be 2% so twice your number. And that 2% is of the whole infected population. If you are in one of the higher risk groups, i.e. older people or people with existing conditions, the rate among those groups will be much greater than 2%.

So perhaps you are young and vigorous, you think I am allright jack, but what about your parents, or your grandparents, or anyone you know who is a smoker, or your friend's parents or grand parents, an elderly neighbour?
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Its not "im alright jack" - im asking how is this different to stuff like SARS and bird flu - or normal strains of flu? So far we have approx 100,000 reported cases and 3000 fatalities - yes there are almost certainly a huge number of cases going unreported, but presumably not so where people get seriously ill.
But we are talking about a couple of billion people living in the affected countries - so why is there this level of concern?
 
Much of the answer has already been explained to you.

The problem is that in order to see for yourself at full scale why such a response is deemed necessary, we would need to see to what extent infection ultimately spread in a country that didnt bother doing much about it at all. Since China intervened heavily in their outbreak after a certain point, we did not get that full picture. However the picture of overwhelmed healthcare in Wuhan before countermeasures were taken was quite sufficient for the strong reaction to result.
 
Kaka Tim said:
Its not "im alright jack" - im asking how is this different to stuff like SARS and bird flu - or normal strains of flu? So far we have approx 100,000 reported cases and 3000 fatalities - yes there are almost certainly a huge number of cases going unreported, but presumably not so where people get seriously ill.
But we are talking about a couple of billion people living in the affected countries - so why is there this level of concern?
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There's been answers on this thread to this question already, but it's about scale.

Covid19 has killed more people in less time than SARS. It's brand new so there's no immunity/community reisstance. We also don't know anything about it, so there's that....
 
We started gaming some of this stuff at work today (I work in local govt)

It gets quite frightening quite quickly tbh. The system can deal with spikes in illness and death, it plans for it for terrorism and major incidents, right down to storage and disposal of bodies, hospital beds etc. But that's a spike on a relatively small footprint that assumes other local services across a region can support in the short term.

But when you start mapping the work force issues in social care (which is what we were doing) based on a moderate outbreak but a large shut down of schools etc. it gets quite difficult quite quickly - suddenly your care work force is hugely depleted by people having to stay at home to look after kids, who may all be perfectly well.

Just as one 'for instance' - layer a few of these up and it gets quite scary with the time frames for quarantine being discussed.

We are doing it properly next week with health partners. Should be fun.
 
FridgeMagnet said:
If you have Covid-19 and housemates you are going to expose the latter to the former whether you stay at home or not.
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But you will expose them to a larger viral load if you stay anywhere near them without PPE when they have symptoms.

elbows said:
Staying at home if you are only suffering mildly is a critically important part of the plan. I dont imagine any country taking a different approach if/when they have large outbreaks, as opposed to small initial clusters when you can actually hospitalise every known case.
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The makeshift hospital approach is the other course.
But stuff is so difficult when it gets out of control, in Hubei there have been around 120,000 medical personnel moved there and it's still nowhere near being cleared up.
I think the current approach is setting the match for painful things.
 
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