Bye bye MEAT! How will the post-meat future look?

[Jeff Robinson]

As FM says, this has come up before. About one third of the value is in human food, two thirds in animal food. I don't think it's straightforward to say what is driving deforestation, and animal agriculture is certainly a big part of it, but if you eat tofu, you're taking part in the same system, a system in which the choices of farmers are very much influenced by the human food part of the equation when deciding what to farm.

Animals could be fed and tofu could be made in a system that doesn't drive deforestation. We don't live in that system. How do we get there?

Some creative 'rounding up' of stats here. About 20% of soy production is for direct human consumption. Of that only 7% is for tofu, soy beans etc. that are often used as high protein substitutes for meat. Meanwhile 76% is for animal feed. In any event, if we are talking about deforestation, as the World in Data article goes on to point out, 'by far the largest driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has been driven by the expansion of pasture land for beef production'.

 

[WouldBe]

Some creative 'rounding up' of stats here. About 20% of soy production is for direct human consumption. Of that only 7% is for tofu, soy beans etc. that are often used as high protein substitutes for meat. Meanwhile 76% is for animal feed.

Yawn

Did you know black is white? Just wondering if we repeat it often enough you'll believe it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Some creative 'rounding up' of stats here. About 20% of soy production is for direct human consumption. Of that only 7% is for tofu, soy beans etc. that are often used as high protein substitutes for meat. Meanwhile 76% is for animal feed. In any event, if we are talking about deforestation, as the World in Data article goes on to point out, 'by far the largest driver of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has been driven by the expansion of pasture land for beef production'.

We went through this before. Of the soy that is grown for oil/animal feed, the value of the crop is roughly 1/3 human : 2/3 animal. It only makes sense to split the crop via the monetary value of its various constituents. The bits that humans can't eat have less monetary value by weight.

Soybean oil trades globally at about three times the price per kilo of soybean meal. That works out at roughly 1/3 income from oil, 2/3 income from meal for the farmers who grow the soya crops. (Prices have changed since I last looked this up, mind you. Last time I looked it up, the oil was only twice the price of soybean meal, so if anything the income from oil is currently more than a third - probably a recent change due to food inflation.)

My bad mentioning tofu above. Lazy of me. The relevant commodity is soybean oil.

 

[Funky_monks]

I have no idea if the film is fabricated. I didn't say it was. I did say that it isn't a fully worked piece of journalism. Because it isn't. And because of that, its value on its own is limited.

And if you look at their website, Viva most certainly put across the misleading impression that these conditions are typical of the dairy industry. Bit like you did with your post despite knowing that they're not.

That's the "problem" with extremists like Viva! Make enough shit up and people stop believing you.

I suppose its slightly mitigated by the fact that most people have never been anywhere near a farm.

 

[Funky_monks]

We went through this before. Of the soy that is grown for oil/animal feed, the value of the crop is roughly 1/3 human : 2/3 animal. It only makes sense to split the crop via the monetary value of its various constituents. The bits that humans can't eat have less monetary value by weight.

Soybean oil trades globally at about three times the price per kilo of soybean meal. That works out at roughly 1/3 income from oil, 2/3 income from meal for the farmers who grow the soya crops. (Prices have changed since I last looked this up, mind you. Last time I looked it up, the oil was only twice the price of soybean meal, so if anything the income from oil is currently more than a third - probably a recent change due to food inflation.)

My bad mentioning tofu above. Lazy of me. The relevant commodity is soybean oil.

I've literally posted the oil yield of those varieties of soy - if people are too daft to work out the rest is byproduct then there's no helping them.

 

[Funky_monks]

Just in case we are unclear what type of "scientist" Joseph Poore is, by the way:
"Joseph earned his MA and M.Phil in Land Economy from the University of Cambridge. He then worked in management consulting in London for four years. Following that he completed his D.Phil in Biology from the University of Oxford."

He also spent four years at Marakon:
https://www.marakon.com/media/1730/commentary-rebasing-covid.pdf

 

[WouldBe]

That's the "problem" with extremists like Viva! Make enough shit up and people stop believing you.

I suppose its slightly mitigated by the fact that most people have never been anywhere near a farm.

Most of them wouldn't recognise a cow if it came up and mauled them.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Just in case we are unclear what type of "scientist" Joseph Poore is, by the way:
"Joseph earned his MA and M.Phil in Land Economy from the University of Cambridge. He then worked in management consulting in London for four years. Following that he completed his D.Phil in Biology from the University of Oxford."

He also spent four years at Marakon:
https://www.marakon.com/media/1730/commentary-rebasing-covid.pdf

As an aside, I've never understood how people can become management consultants in their early 20s straight out of uni, like Poore did. What can they bring to the table at that point in their lives?

 

[Jeff Robinson]

We went through this before. Of the soy that is grown for oil/animal feed, the value of the crop is roughly 1/3 human : 2/3 animal. It only makes sense to split the crop via the monetary value of its various constituents. The bits that humans can't eat have less monetary value by weight.

Soybean oil trades globally at about three times the price per kilo of soybean meal. That works out at roughly 1/3 income from oil, 2/3 income from meal for the farmers who grow the soya crops. (Prices have changed since I last looked this up, mind you. Last time I looked it up, the oil was only twice the price of soybean meal, so if anything the income from oil is currently more than a third - probably a recent change due to food inflation.)

My bad mentioning tofu above. Lazy of me. The relevant commodity is soybean oil.

Assuming those stats are correct, I don't the think the correct inference is to say that animal agriculture accounts for 2/3 of soy production and human consumption accounts for 1/3. More important is to identify which of these products is the principle economic driving engine for increased soy crop yields and which 'piggybacks' off that as it were as a byproduct. The deranged and idiotic ramblings of that fuckwit FM aside, everything I've read online suggests it is demand for animal feed that its principle-driving factor:

Demand for soybean oil and meal are the critical factors determining market value for soybeans.

Although the price per pound for soybean oil is typically higher than the price per pound of meal, the comparison doesn’t mean oil contributes more value per bushel of soybeans.

“The need for both oil and meal makes processing plants run, depending upon what the market wants at the time," says Bruce Weber, director of soybean product line grain marketing for CHS, Inc. “Meal is more important to the price structure, and the impacts of supply and demand are much closer.”

Both components are important, but when it comes to providing value to farmers, meal is the engine that drives profitability.

South Carolina Soybean Board

scsoybeans.org

This is obvious once you realise that soybeans contain the least oil of all major oilseeds. What makes its production so profitable then?

Given the soybean's low oil content, what are the major factors that have contributed to the rise of soy oil as the world's leading oil? First, its highly competitive price, which is based both on the relatively low costs of soybean and soy oil production, and on the fact that soy oil is but one of two valuable products derived from the soybean. Since about 1946, the demand for (and thus the price of) soybean meal as a protein source for livestock has increased faster than that for oil. Thus, the large supply of soy oil relative to the demand has kept prices low; in effect, soy oil has almost become a by-product of the meal.

History of Soybean Crushing: Soy Oil and Soybean Meal - Part 1

www.soyinfocenter.com

 

[butcher]

Now then there was a direct request by Ed to lay off the personal name calling Jeff Robinson

Personally I find Funky Monks posts measured, referenced and balanced.

 

[Cid]

All in the last 12 months - and these were just the ones who were caught.

Footage reveals evidence of animal abuse on farm

Footage shared with BBC Panorama reveals cows being hit and kicked on a large dairy farm in Wales.

www.bbc.co.uk

Dairy farm fined £52,000 for causing unnecessary suffering to cows - Dorset Council news

A West Dorset dairy farm has pleaded guilty to causing unnecessary suffering to a cow and a calf by failing to care for them, along with a series of other offences relating to conditions on their farm. Ireosa Ltd, who operate Higher Kingston Russell Farm near Winterborne Abbas, appeared at Poole...

news.dorsetcouncil.gov.uk

Costa and Iceland milk supplier accused of ‘rampant animal cruelty’

https://www.cips.org/A%20campaign%20group%20has%20claimed%20a%20farm%20supplying%20milk%20to%20brands%20including%20Costa%20Coffee%20and%20Iceland%20is%20mistreating%20cows,%20with%20animals%20being%20%E2%80%9Ckicked%20and%20slapped%E2%80%9D%20and%20living%20in%20faeces.ashx?width=300&quality=80

www.cips.org

New allegations of animal abuse won’t help a dairy sector already on the brink

The BBC's Panorama on Monday night saw workers on a dairy farm in west Wales engaged in a series of alleged animal welfare breaches

www.thegrocer.co.uk

Dairy farm has milk contract suspended due to alleged animal cruelty

Madox Farm in Carmarthenshire recently featured on an episode of BBC1's Panorama

www.walesonline.co.uk

Red Tractor terminates farm after BBC uncovered animal abuse

Red Tractor has terminated a dairy farm from its assurance scheme after BBC Panorama showed systematic disregard for animal welfare on the farm.

www.farminguk.com

'Newborn calf kicked on Somerset dairy farm housing young cows in hutches'

AN investigation by Animal Aid into a Somerset dairy farm has revealed the horrendous toll calf hutches play on the animals' mental wellbeing, as…

www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk

Er... four of those are about the same farm.

 

[Funky_monks]

Re: soybeans
A) Plant breeding companies are continuing to develop new strains with a higher oil content
B) Animals can eat soy whole crop, why bother going to the expense of pressing them for oil if its more lucrative to feed them to animals?

We also feed rapeseed cake to livestock post oil extraction, but nobody seems to think that's the reason we grow it....

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Wholesale prices reflect the relative demand for the two products, so I would still say that 1:2 is roughly the correct proportion to use when considering the economic drivers of soy production - it may be more like 2:3 now given the recent changes in prices. That still means that animal feed is the more important of the two, but the oil for humans is far from irrelevant to the equation. As ever, it is whole systems that need considering. It's not as simple as 'the oil is a byproduct of the meal therefore I do no harm consuming it'. The oil is a product made in the same system as the meal. If you use the oil, you are also propping up that system. (Not that I think viewing this from a consumer pov is necessarily the best way to view it. I generally don't think that when it comes to systems change.)

 

[Funky_monks]

Wholesale prices reflect the relative demand for the two products, so I would still say that 1:2 is roughly the correct proportion to use when considering the economic drivers of soy production - it may be more like 2:3 now given the recent changes in prices. That still means that animal feed is the more important of the two, but the oil for humans is far from irrelevant to the equation. As ever, it is whole systems that need considering. It's not as simple as 'the oil is a byproduct of the meal therefore I do no harm consuming it'. The oil is a product made in the same system as the meal. If you use the oil, you are also propping up that system. (Not that I think viewing this from a consumer pov is necessarily the best way to view it. I generally don't think that when it comes to systems change.)

It's pretty unlikely you'd consume the oil anyway - the vast majority of south America, oil (and meal) goes to China

 

[Funky_monks]

Er... four of those are about the same farm.

Are you surprised?

 

[Funky_monks]

As an aside, I've never understood how people can become management consultants in their early 20s straight out of uni, like Poore did. What can they bring to the table at that point in their lives?

The (undeserved) confidence you get going on the public school/Oxbridge route through life?

God knows, clearly someone is employing these people.

 

[WouldBe]

B) Animals can eat soy whole crop, why bother going to the expense of pressing them for oil if its more lucrative to feed them to animals?

Exactly and has been pointed out several times before.

We also feed rapeseed cake to livestock post oil extraction, but nobody seems to think that's the reason we grow it....

I suppose barley used for beer is also grown purely for animal feed as well.

What would the veggies prefer happen to waste material? Landfill? Composted? Ploughing back into the ground isn't a good idea as it can spread / encourage diseases.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Wholesale prices reflect the relative demand for the two products, so I would still say that 1:2 is roughly the correct proportion to use when considering the economic drivers of soy production - it may be more like 2:3 now given the recent changes in prices. That still means that animal feed is the more important of the two, but the oil for humans is far from irrelevant to the equation. As ever, it is whole systems that need considering. It's not as simple as 'the oil is a byproduct of the meal therefore I do no harm consuming it'. The oil is a product made in the same system as the meal. If you use the oil, you are also propping up that system. (Not that I think viewing this from a consumer pov is necessarily the best way to view it. I generally don't think that when it comes to systems change.)

It's not that that the production and sale of soy oil is irrelevant to the cultivation of soy crops, but rather that it's a secondary cause, largely epiphenomenal even. Consider two counterfactual worlds - one in which manufacturer demand for soy oil for human consumption collapses and one in which farmer demand for soy cake for animal feed collapses. Ask yourself this: in each world which supply of the surviving product is more effected by the collapse of the other? It would clearly be in the world in which soy cake demand collapses. This is because soy oil really isn't that great. Consumers don't want it (its just a filler ingredient for processed foods, most of which aren't vegan btw) and manufacturers only want it because its cheap due large supply of it relative to the demand. And the reason for so much of it being around is because of the demand for soy cake. Demand for soy cake would barely be effected - if at all - if say, soy oil stopped selling. In terms of cheap, high protein animal feed, what else realistically competes with soy?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Looking it up, soybean oil is a little cheaper than sunflower oil, a little more expensive than rapeseed oil. It's significantly more expensive than palm oil, another oil used as a filler ingredient for processed foods. So without soybean oil, would palm oil production be ramped up? That's also massively destructive, as I'm sure you know.

We need to change the way we use these kinds of oils and move away from the production of this kind of processed food. Another systems change. That is what would stymie demand for these cheaper oils.

India has shot past China as the biggest consumer of soybean oil. Demand for it appears to be strong.

Global Market Trends: Soybean Oil - Tridge

 

[WouldBe]

And the reason for so much of it being around is because of the demand for soy cake. Demand for soy cake would barely be effected - if at all - if say, soy oil stopped selling.

If you didn't need to extract the oil due to lack of demand then soy 'cake' would become cheaper in price as you wouldn't have the costs involved in pressing the beans and could just feed the beans direct to the cows. The extra oil content would increase the energy content of the feed.

 

[editor]

Er... four of those are about the same farm.

I need to put in multiple sources because the meat lovers here constantly try to dismiss anything that doesn't support their argument.

 

[editor]

Now then there was a direct request by Ed to lay off the personal name calling Jeff Robinson

Personally I find Funky Monks posts measured, referenced and balanced.

LOL. He's as biased as anyone in this debate.

 

[Spymaster]

Now then there was a direct request by Ed to lay off the personal name calling Jeff Robinson

Personally I find Funky Monks posts measured, referenced and balanced.

Yep. His and LBJ's are the only posts worth reading here if you actually want to learn anything. The rest is just fluff and guff at best, and psychopathic bullshit in some cases (looking at you Jeff ).

 

[editor]

This thread is like a casebook for bias confirmation and cognitive dissonance, with some quite awesome levels of denial.

 

[WouldBe]

This thread is like a casebook for bias confirmation and cognitive dissonance, with some quite awesome levels of denial.

You do know black is white don't you?

 

[Funky_monks]

Once again, this thread illustrates the Dunning-Kruger effect quite spectacularly.

Posting the same thing three times "for emphasis" as opposed to "because I never actually read anything I post"....

 

[friedaweed]

LOL. He's as biased as anyone in this debate.

So you've nothing to say about this then?

The deranged and idiotic ramblings of that fuckwit FM aside

 

[kabbes]

When is personal abuse not personal abuse?
When the judge‘s levels of head-in-the-sand denial are bordering on Olympic.

 

[Funky_monks]

So you've nothing to say about this then?

Doesn't really bother me that much to be fair.
Academics constantly come up against this from arrogant idiots who have watched some YouTube videos or read a newspaper and seem to think they magically know loads more than someone who's lifes work it's been.

Jeff consistently embarrasses himself with his unhinged rants, and is a walking example of a radicalised misanthrope who ought to act as a warning to other would be cultists.

 

[friedaweed]

Doesn't really bother me that much to be fair.
Academics constantly come up against this from arrogant idiots who have watched some YouTube videos or read a newspaper and seem to think they magically know loads more than someone who's lifes work it's been.

Jeff consistently embarrasses himself with his unhinged rants, and is a walking example of a radicalised misanthrope who ought to act as a warning to other would be cultists.

I get that FM but a week ago there was a warning on this thread about personal abuse by a moderator of the boards. One which would have likely seen a thread ban for any of the rabid meat eaters for continuing to give as good as they get from the prominent vegetable-folk.

Consistency is all I'd like to see. Which I believe was the point that butcher was trying to make however, instead of responding to it as such you can see the response it got.

Like others I quite enjoy reading yours and LBJ's posts. It's one of the few reasons I read the thread.

If you set the rules you should apply them consistently IMHO.