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British & Irish Lions tour of South Africa 2021

Elpenor

Dancing as fast as I can
So, after 4 years, the Lions tour rolls round again and this time it is South Africa who will be the opponent.

The tour is shortened to 8 matches + the Japan game due to the home unions interfering - so a match vs Japan in Edinburgh plus 5 warm up games in South Africa is all they have before facing the Bokke.

Whichever teams are in the English Premiership final will not have their players involved in the Japan game or the 2 week training camp beforehand which puts the England-based players from these clubs at a major disadvantage for Test selection. I think any tourists from the losing Premiership semi-finalists may also lose some training time.

Covid means that there will only be 2 match locations - Cape Town and Johannesburg and of course bubbles will be in place for the players. This means that sadly none of the usual community outreach work that normally takes place is going to be possible. It is unlikely that any Lions fans will be able to travel to South Africa, and I am not even sure if fans are currently attending domestic figures in South Africa anyway. Still at least the talk of the tour being moved to the British Isles or Australia or even Dubai was all tosh.

Regardless of where the matches take place, there will 2 Tests at altitude (the first and the third I believe). These will be very difficult to win - the victorious 1997 Lions may have won 2-1 but both wins were achieved at sea level, with the final dead rubber won by South Africa being at altitude. In fact out of 6 Test matches played in the professional era, the Lions have only won 1/3 at altitude - the final dead rubber in 2009. In effect it means the Lions must win the first Test at altitude to have a chance of winning the series.

Anyway, the squad is announced on Thursday 6th May, and it will be interesting to see how many deserving Scottish players are left out as usual, how many England players playing rugby in the Championship are undeservedly selected on past reputation, how many of Gatland’s Welsh favourites get in, and whether the 48 year old grandfather Jonathan Sexton gets to tour.

The European semi finals this weekend are the final chance to influence the selectors, although of course there may be some be tour-ending injuries before the end of the season. Already today we have heard that George North, who was in many people’s teams of the 6 Nations at 13, has done his ACL and is out of the tour. Hopefully there are not any other withdrawals.
 
Gutted for North as I love a redemption story. Thought he was shot as an international player let alone a lion and then he somehow finds a way to reinvent himself as a very tasty 13. ACL as well, poor sod. Likely to be the Irish boys at 12 and 13 now, which is OK because they're fine, fine players but I do think Gogzilla would have brought a lot to the test XXIII

E2A: Launchbury also broken, no?
 
At least the Saries players will be available. Well, unless they have a difficult fixture against Ampthill...
 
Ah, forgot Launchbury being injured although I think he suffers from not being one of the “big names”. I would have him ahead of James Ryan who I feel is a bit overrated.
 
Squad is announced tomorrow, and here is what I would take.

LH - Marler, Wyn Jones, Healy
Hooker - Cowan-Dickie, Owens, George
TH - Furlong, Sinckler, Porter
Lock - Itoje, AWJ, Henderson, Gray, Beirne
Back Row - Curry, Faletau, Van Der Flier, Navidi, Underhill, H. Watson

SH - T. Williams, Murray, Care
FH - Biggar, Russell, Farrell
Centre - J. Davies, Ringrose, Henshaw, Tuilagi
Back 3 - L. Williams, Hogg, A. Watson, LRZ, Adams, Nowell

12 English, 11 Welsh, 9 Irish, 4 Scottish

I expect the actual squad to be different by at least 4 names, a few players I’ve picked are borderline to be fit, or perhaps won’t elect to tour. My focus is on a competitive scrum, dominant line out, ball carriers in the pack and guile in the back row. I want my halfbacks to move the ball quickly to the power runners in midfield who can release the back 3.

12 English, 11 Welsh, 9 Irish, 4 Scottish
 
Oh that’s a shame, he was the one player who I could rely on in the scrum. Bit of a tit though
 
Seriously surprised by Jack Conan’s inclusion, he’s never really shone for Ireland and tends to drift in and out of games. Looking at the squad he’s gone for size and strength Bundee won’t have to dip when tackling saffas.
 
I feel like he’s gone for every player who’s been sent off in the 6 Nations.

Johnny Hill lucky to be on the plane. Surprised no Sinckler.

A lot of Scots will be playing midweek games I assume
 
Well no-one got close to naming that squad. Some genuinely suprising omissions and selections.

Really surprised no Stander as well
 
Not liking the look of the likely first choice midfield based on that selection, especially if Henshaw or Farrell get borked.
 
Aki's a bruiser but that's about it for me , over a fit Tuilagi? No way. I really rate Navidi so he's v unlucky I think, wasn't he injured in the 6n though?

Surprised about Sinckler, he's a great player and he also has the combative mentality (maybe a bit too much!) that you will need against the Bok at home.

Still Gatland has a good Lions record so we'll see.
 
I reckon he'll find his way on the plane with injuries and all that.

Some random selections with this one! Also, way too many Scots... ;)
Reading between the lines there are 3 of the specialist lock contingent who are equally comfortable at 6, with no specialist blindside being named in the squad at all. Gatland is going for maximum bosh with massive slabs of meat all over the park. Suspect a starting pack to contain AWJ and Itoje at lock and Beirne, Faletau and Curry in the backrow. Sadly can't see Tipuric featuring in the test side for this reason.

E2A - would also explain the omission of the likes of Ryan and Gray in favour of the blatantly not as good Hill, who can play 6
 
Gutted for Navidi, seriously surprised about Sinckler
I’d have had Navidi, and not just because he looks more like he should be playing bass for Crass, rather than rugby.
How do England get 11 players after such a poor 6 Nations?
Itoje was a shoe in, but needs to be coached out of giving away so many penalties.
Farrell? I was not impressed with his 6N performance. Presumably for his place kicking. Certainly not his tactical kicking.
 
Reading between the lines there are 3 of the specialist lock contingent who are equally comfortable at 6, with no specialist blindside being named in the squad at all. Gatland is going for maximum bosh with massive slabs of meat all over the park. Suspect a starting pack to contain AWJ and Itoje at lock and Beirne, Faletau and Curry in the backrow. Sadly can't see Tipuric featuring in the test side for this reason.

E2A - would also explain the omission of the likes of Ryan and Gray in favour of the blatantly not as good Hill, who can play 6

Henderson plays 6, not Hill I think you mean. Agree it’s all a strategy to tackle Pieter Steph Du Toit, and it looks like there may be a 6-2 split on the bench.

God knows what the centre partnership is
 
Surprised Johnny may didn't get on there. Sexton may have missed out through age and injury but he is a much better kicker than those going.
 
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Henderson plays 6, not Hill I think you mean. Agree it’s all a strategy to tackle Pieter Steph Du Toit, and it looks like there may be a 6-2 split on the bench.

God knows what the centre partnership is
Thought Hill also played blindside?
 
I’d have had Navidi, and not just because he looks more like he should be playing bass for Crass, rather than rugby.
How do England get 11 players after such a poor 6 Nations?
Itoje was a shoe in, but needs to be coached out of giving away so many penalties.
Farrell? I was not impressed with his 6N performance. Presumably for his place kicking. Certainly not his tactical kicking.
If Biggar plays, he kicks. His success rate at international level is one of the best in the world.

E2A - Farrell is a decent place kicker, nothing more. The rest is hype.
 
What kind of kick? Out of hand or place? If the latter, no, he's not.
He's got better stats than Biggar or Farrell:

Sexton – 87%


Biggar – 86%


Farrell - 82%

 
He's got better stats than Biggar or Farrell:

Sexton – 87%


Biggar – 86%


Farrell - 82%

sleaterkinney i like sexton, like his attitude but he does have a history of missing important kicks. We lost a number of games over the years due to sexton not slotting them.
 
He's got better stats than Biggar or Farrell:

Sexton – 87%


Biggar – 86%


Farrell - 82%

Fair play, I didn't know that Sexton's career average was higher and was basing my opinion on Biggar's % a few years ago, which was 89-90%. He's obviously dipped.

However, you could if you so wished also factor in the difficulty of the kicks attempted (distance, proximity to the touchline) when deciding who is the best. I forget that Scottish player who had something like a 95% conversion rate but who only ever made attempts from close in and relatively central.

Some boffins have attempted to do just that and concluded that Biggar is the superior kicker. Worth a look if you have any faith in how they mathematically weight it...

 
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