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Brexit or Bremain - Urban votes

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  • Bremain

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Fozzie Bear said:
One possibility is a successful Leave campaign, on the terms of the right, will be a huge boost for the right wing in general. We know that because of first past the post that splits in major parties are incredibly unlikely. So it is possible that the various factions will continue to hold their noses and unite to shaft the rest of us with their newfound independence. Which is ultimately their plan whether we leave or stay.

Paul Mason saying we should vote Remain and then unite behind Jeremy Corbyn is la-la land.
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tbh if it's exit i wouldn't be surprised if net migration is +500k for a couple of years as departing will become more enticing if johnson and his ilk get their lizard hands on power
 
Fozzie Bear said:
One possibility is a successful Leave campaign, on the terms of the right, will be a huge boost for the right wing in general. We know that because of first past the post that splits in major parties are incredibly unlikely. So it is possible that the various factions will continue to hold their noses and unite to shaft the rest of us with their newfound independence. Which is ultimately their plan whether we leave or stay.
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Even if the result of a leave vote is the Tories all pulling together (I don't see it, however), how will they do any better than they are doing this Parliament? Look at how many u-turns they have had to make recently. Things are beginning to shift against them. The electoral arithmetic of the commons at the moment makes brexit much less risky than it might have been under other circumstances.
 
Fozzie Bear said:
I think this is an instance where people's opinions don't exist in a vacuum. The wider context is important. The terrain has shifted since the beginning of the campaign. It hasn't shifted in a progressive direction and if progressives are losing ground now that will only intensify after a Leave victory.

It won't be much of a consolation prize to be able to say "Oh no I voted for the nice Brexit, not the racist Brexit".
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I doubt it'll be much of a consolation prize to say you voted to remain to show you weren't a racist rather than because the EU has any value either.

And the wider context is important, like what path the EU and us in it will follow. I don't believe the right is on the verge of controlling the entire population, what power it has can be fought. Will have to be fought in fact, regardless of the result. This will be the last vote on the EU for decades to come though and the weight of interest it contains from capital can't easily be fought - it certainly hasn't so far. Not a chance to be wasted.
 
I've got the window open and heard an amplified voice which I thought was a referendum megaphone. When I heard it properly I could tell it was 'Warning, this vehicle is reversing!" Not sure if the Good Lord was trying to send me a message for Thursday after I announced my abstentionist position? :hmm:
 
YouSir said:
I doubt it'll be much of a consolation prize to say you voted to remain to show you weren't a racist rather than because the EU has any value either.

And the wider context is important, like what path the EU and us in it will follow. I don't believe the right is on the verge of controlling the entire population, what power it has can be fought. Will have to be fought in fact, regardless of the result. This will be the last vote on the EU for decades to come though and the weight of interest it contains from capital can't easily be fought - it certainly hasn't so far. Not a chance to be wasted.
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Yeah I agree. I'm posting here to persuade myself as much as anything else. :):facepalm:
 
ItWillNeverWork said:
Even if the result of a leave vote is the Tories all pulling together (I don't see it, however), how will they do any better than they are doing this Parliament? Look at how many u-turns they have had to make recently. Things are beginning to shift against them. The electoral arithmetic of the commons at the moment makes brexit much less risky than it might have been under other circumstances.
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Do you honestly think that a Leave win will lead to a Labour victory in 2020? I can't see it myself.
 
It seems to me that fear of what the Tories might do after leaving is a main driving motivation for many on the left who want to stay/abstain. I think these fears are unfounded.
 
Fozzie Bear said:
In the absence of a voice on the left, the terrain has shifted even further to the right.
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it's not something I've noticed. it's seemed to be as right wing and argued in the same terms as it was at the start to me. the official campaigns were never going to be anything else, but I still think there is something we can work with and draw upon in the event of leaving if we are willing to.
 
Fozzie Bear said:
Do you honestly think that a Leave win will lead to a Labour victory in 2020? I can't see it myself.
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I don't think the result of the 2020 election will depend directly on this referendum. What happens between now and 2020, and how the labour party respond to those events is what counts. Even in my infinite wisdom I'm not sure I can predict the future like that.
 
Fozzie Bear said:
Yeah that all makes perfect sense...
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Woah sarcastic urban backed up by likes. was my entire comment wank or a specific part :)
inva said:
it's not something I've noticed. it's seemed to be as right wing and argued in the same terms as it was at the start to me. the official campaigns were never going to be anything else, but I still think there is something we can work with and draw upon in the event of leaving if we are willing to.
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fwiw I braved the terror of Facebook comments on a few ref related things and as far as I could see for every one overtly racist comment there was at least ten re the EU not being democratic. Anecdotal I know but it was Facebook. I've not noticed it getting worse at all but the fear my remain lefty friends seem to be experiencing re anti immigration sentiment is through the roof.
 
diamarzipan said:
Woah sarcastic urban backed up by likes. was my entire comment wank or a specific part :)

fwiw I braved the terror of Facebook comments on a few ref related things and as far as I could see for every one overtly racist comment there was at least ten re the EU not being democratic. Anecdotal I know but it was Facebook. I've not noticed it getting worse at all but the fear my remain lefty friends seem to be experiencing re anti immigration sentiment is through the roof.
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Ah dammit - no I actually meant that what you said made perfect sense! :D
 
ItWillNeverWork said:
Who the fuck are you? Have we ever spoken?
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Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I was referring to 8den with the muppet comment. Before I saw his posts it looked like you were just shouting at the internet about un-elected European Commissioners.
 
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