BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[killer b]

The Benn amendment is the one. Bryant might pass too I guess, but it's just trolling really. The others dont have a chance.

 

[Teaboy]

Absolutely.

I tend not to admit this for obvious reasons, but I voted for Brexit.

I didn't believe any of the made right wing nonsense by the leave campaign. I despise every one of them, and what they stand for.

I do believe the EU is not democratic (but I also believe that the UK parliament is not democratic).

Honestly, this is along the lines of what I wanted to see. I know it's bad. I wanted to give the political class an impossible task, one that would tear them apart. I wanted to see the Conservative party destroy itself. I wanted to see reform in the Labour party, and also felt that for it to move to the left that we would need to sever some links with the EU, which is after all a neoliberal project.

I agree that it is kind of terrifying. I don't know how this will work out. I hope the chaos of it will open up some possibilities for change. But in the meantime it is very very satisfying to see the Tories exposed as ruthlessly incompetent.

Spot on. This has exposed so much that was already obvious. Democracy in this country is a sham. This seems like an ideal time for change but where from and how? Fuck knows.

 

[tommers]

The Benn amendment is the one. Bryant might pass too I guess, but it's just trolling really. The others dont have a chance.

May I remind you that last night we had the government whipping against its own motion?

I mean, you're almost certainly right but they all seem to have gone mad.

 

[Teaboy]

She cant be removed by an official procedure (an MPs vote). But the cabinet can ultimately just tell her to fuck off. I really cant see her lasting much longer - her position is utterly untenable. When she is finally forced to abandon her deal that could be it for her.

Even if her deal does pass she seems like toast.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Even if her deal does pass she seems like toast.

tbh if her deal somehow does squeak through, it doesn't solve much. It might be a Pyrrhic victory that simply leads to years and years of division and bitterness within her own ranks as the full implications of her shit deal slowly make themselves apparent, leaving nobody happy.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Even if her deal does pass she seems like toast.

To be replaced by who exactly? You and Kaka Tim seem convinced she's a goner. Walk me through how the cabinet tell her to 'fuck off' works and who they replace her with who's appointment doesn't immediately trigger a deepening of the war for the losing side.

If the Tory split could be ended by replacing the leader it would have already happened. This isn't an incompetent/unpopular leader problem they have, it's an existential problem.

 

[philosophical]

The can has to be kicked as far down the road as needed to await a change to the Geography on the island of Ireland.
I believe the Mesolithic period was about 5300 years long.

 

[killer b]

May I remind you that last night we had the government whipping against its own motion?

I mean, you're almost certainly right but they all seem to have gone mad.

I know it's fun to say this, but it's not really true - the amendment had changed the motion completely.

 

[SpookyFrank]

When she is finally forced to abandon her deal that could be it for her.

Which could in theory be today if Bryant's amendment passes. Which tbf it probably won't.

 

[Kaka Tim]

To be replaced by who exactly? You and Kaka Tim seem convinced she's a goner. Walk me through how the cabinet tell her to 'fuck off' works and who they replace her with who's appointment doesn't immediately trigger a deepening of the war for the losing side.

If the Tory split could be ended by replacing the leader it would have already happened. This isn't an incompetent/unpopular leader problem they have, it's an existential problem.

Because the party is in chaos and they hope that by replacing May some sort of order can restored - a new leader will not have the same baggage and will have - initially - more authority. May might just resign anyway. Yes - its a short term fix at best - but what else can they do?

How it works is - the cabinet says en masse - "we cant support you anymore - you have no authority" - Which is pretty much exactly how they got rid of thatcher.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

My best mate - to my massive surprise at the time - voted leave. His reason then was nothing more than "it'll be a right laugh seeing what happens". At the time I thought he'd gone mad, now I'm starting to think I should ask him for some lottery numbers.

Brexit or Bremain - Urban votes


No need to thank me

 

[ska invita]

She's going nowhere. No leadership contest is possible for 12 months. The Tories would want a larger poll lead before calling an election, plus there is the fixed term parliament act . Brexit will now be kicked down the road until it can be safely overturned by the remain section of the elites. Plus, and this is the key point, there is no other leader who could hold things together any better than May. In fact a leadership contest would fuel the war.
You'll just have to make do with the slow motion car crash.

Also Tories are 7 or 8 points ahead in a lot of recent polls. Though things are a bit up in the air at the moment so could change

 

[Pickman's model]

To be replaced by who exactly? You and Kaka Tim seem convinced she's a goner. Walk me through how the cabinet tell her to 'fuck off' works and who they replace her with who's appointment doesn't immediately trigger a deepening of the war for the losing side.

If the Tory split could be ended by replacing the leader it would have already happened. This isn't an incompetent/unpopular leader problem they have, it's an existential problem.

an existential problem with their support hovering around 8 points ahead of labour

yeh it's a real existential problem

 

[killer b]

Because the party is in chaos and they hope that by replacing May some sort of order can restored - a new leader will not have the same baggage and will have - initially - more authority. May might just resign anyway. Yes - its a short term fix at best - but what else can they do?

How it works is - the cabinet says en masse - "we cant support you anymore - you have no authority" - Which is pretty much exactly how they got rid of thatcher.

there's a reason this hasn't happened. it's because they have no intention of replacing her right now.

 

[Dillinger4]

We should have a general election.

 

[Teaboy]

To be replaced by who exactly? You and Kaka Tim seem convinced she's a goner. Walk me through how the cabinet tell her to 'fuck off' works and who they replace her with who's appointment doesn't immediately trigger a deepening of the war for the losing side.

If the Tory split could be ended by replacing the leader it would have already happened. This isn't an incompetent/unpopular leader problem they have, it's an existential problem.

Up until last night she by and large had the support of the cabinet. Last night cabinet members abstained on a 3 line whip with rumours they were even allowed to. In any other situation they would have all been sacked but she simply can't do that. Any vestige of authority she had left was smashed. There is even a question of whether the main motion tonight will be in her name or the government's because she can't whip anymore because no one will take any notice.

At some point when some sort of change happens (her deal passes or A50 extended for longer than a couple of months) the cabinet as a whole will tell her she no longer has their support. She lost the backbenchers a long time ago. Even she is not so stubborn as to realise that she can't carry on as she'd be unable to get anything at all through the commons.

Who they would choose after that I don't know but she will be out shortly.

 

[planetgeli]

an existential problem with their support hovering around 8 points ahead of labour

yeh it's a real existential problem

It's the buzz word of the day, have you noticed? It permeates into general usage so people end up, like here, talking absolute shit for the sake of using the latest 'in' word.

 

[SpackleFrog]

She's going nowhere. No leadership contest is possible for 12 months. The Tories would want a larger poll lead before calling an election, plus there is the fixed term parliament act . Brexit will now be kicked down the road until it can be safely overturned by the remain section of the elites. Plus, and this is the key point, there is no other leader who could hold things together any better than May. In fact a leadership contest would fuel the war.
You'll just have to make do with the slow motion car crash.

I agree Brexit will be kicked further down the road. But while up until this point May has acted as a useful aid to that can-kicking, she doesn't any more. There will be a move now towards a 'softer' (hate these terms but shorthand) Brexit than she was offering and her Brexit was too 'soft' for the Brexiteers.

The EU will I expect say for an extension to be granted some red lines have to go, particularly now Parliament has officially signalled it does not want no deal at any time, and that therefore Brexit will only happen with a deal. May can't abandon her red lines but someone else could.

I'm sure she'll probably have one last crack at passing her deal first but do you see it passing? After that, what?

an existential problem with their support hovering around 8 points ahead of labour

yeh it's a real existential problem

Labour were 20 points behind in 2017 - I don't think the brighter Tories think they can win an election. Certainly not having failed to 'deliver' Brexit.

 

[Badgers]

Had a meeting with someone who heads up part of Médecins Sans Frontières today and he laughed a lot about Brexit. Used the words 'stupid' and 'idiots' a lot, described Brexit as 'self harm' and said that world looks at Britain as a hostile/selfish country.

Good to get some feedback eh?

 

[DotCommunist]

I'm backing a GE just to see the Tinge chancers meet reality

 

[Pickman's model]

Labour were 20 points behind in 2017 - I don't think the brighter Tories think they can win an election. Certainly not having failed to 'deliver' Brexit.

i suspect the composition of the next house of commons will not be too dissimilar from the composition of the current one, i don't believe that win or lose the conservative party will disappear as the liberal party disappeared in the 1920s.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm backing a GE just to see the Tinge chancers meet reality

the t-chancers as you might call them

 

[Badgers]

We should have a general election.

Bring back Guy Fawkes

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Because the party is in chaos and they hope that by replacing May some sort of order can restored - a new leader will not have the same baggage and will have - initially - more authority. May might just resign anyway. Yes - its a short term fix at best - but what else can they do?

How it works is - the cabinet says en masse - "we cant support you anymore - you have no authority" - Which is pretty much exactly how they got rid of thatcher.

How would replacing her with a remain supporter or a leave supporter 'restore order'? It would do the opposite never mind the absolute bloodbath of the leadership contest from which in the current moment they might not be able to recover from.

On your latter point there is simply not the mass - or a figure who a mass could or would unite around (can you imagine Amber Rudd speaking for Gove etc) - in the Cabinet.

When do you think she goes by the way? today? this week? this month?

 

[Pickman's model]

Bring back Guy Fawkes

i wonder who the last mp to be hanged was, it seems an awful long time ago

milligan i suppose

 

[Pickman's model]

How would replacing her with a remain supporter or a leave supporter 'restore order'? It would do the opposite never mind the absolute bloodbath of the leadership contest from which in the current moment they might not be able to recover from.

On your latter point there is simply not the mass - or a figure who a mass could or would unite around (can you imagine Amber Rudd speaking for Gove etc) - in the Cabinet.

When do you think she goes by the way? today? this week? this month?

being as there's not going to be a leadership contest as matters stand for almost a year 'the current moment' is of er no moment

 

[Mr Moose]

To be replaced by who exactly? You and Kaka Tim seem convinced she's a goner. Walk me through how the cabinet tell her to 'fuck off' works and who they replace her with who's appointment doesn't immediately trigger a deepening of the war for the losing side.

If the Tory split could be ended by replacing the leader it would have already happened. This isn't an incompetent/unpopular leader problem they have, it's an existential problem.

She wouldn’t be replaced to ‘end the split’. She would replaced for one side to seize power. The ERG boneheads know that it could split the party, but they may prefer a ‘pure offer’ because they believe it would make the party what it should be. Up until now the Tories have successfully avoided this, but the divisions are so great now, May so lacking in authority, that it is a real possibility.

 

[Mr Moose]

being as there's not going to be a leadership contest as matters stand for almost a year 'the current moment' is of er no moment

More than one way to send her on her way.

 

[SpackleFrog]

i suspect the composition of the next house of commons will not be too dissimilar from the composition of the current one, i don't believe that win or lose the conservative party will disappear as the liberal party disappeared in the 1920s.

I think you could be right - as I posted up thread odds say that the next election will produce another hung parliament. My point though was that the Tories will know they can't win an election - a hung Parliament could see them having to work with the DUP again or tack together confidence and supply from somewhere to form a govt. That would further exacerbate their divisions - they either need a strong majority or failing that some time in opposition to regroup.

I'm not suggesting they could disappear but an existential crisis doesn't neccessarily mean that - they exist to be a party of govt, to wield power but their social base is in rapid decline, they're struggling to remain unified, and apart from 2015 when they squeaked it they haven't won a majority since 1992. Most Tory MP's care more about having strong Tory govts than they do about Brexit.

 

[Pickman's model]

More than one way to send her on her way.

indeed there are, eg