BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[Pickman's model]

I'm not suggesting they could disappear but an existential crisis doesn't neccessarily mean that - they exist to be a party of govt, to wield power but their social base is in rapid decline, they're struggling to remain unified, and apart from 2015 when they squeaked it they haven't won a majority since 1992. Most Tory MP's care more about having strong Tory govts than they do about Brexit.

their current social base is in decline, but the tory party hasn't survived hundreds of years without a certain electoral agility.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think you could be right - as I posted up thread odds say that the next election will produce another hung parliament. My point though was that the Tories will know they can't win an election - a hung Parliament could see them having to work with the DUP again or tack together confidence and supply from somewhere to form a govt. That would further exacerbate their divisions - they either need a strong majority or failing that some time in opposition to regroup.

I'm not suggesting they could disappear but an existential crisis doesn't neccessarily mean that - they exist to be a party of govt, to wield power but their social base is in rapid decline, they're struggling to remain unified, and apart from 2015 when they squeaked it they haven't won a majority since 1992. Most Tory MP's care more about having strong Tory govts than they do about Brexit.

Ironically enough the one strong govt the tories have formed since 1992 was the 2010 coalition. That coalition suited the tories magnificently. The libdems were so spineless they had zero influence, and could be used as cover for a brutal set of reforms, but their presence could at the same time be used to keep the tory eurosceptics at bay. It all started to go wrong from 2015.

 

[SpackleFrog]

their current social base is in decline, but the tory party hasn't survived hundreds of years without a certain electoral agility.

Sure but right now they're split on how to regenerate a social base - one side want to hark back to the Conservative party from days of yore, flags and church and traditionalism, and the other side want Thatcherism with a human, socially liberal face. Making them about as agile as

 

[Sprocket.]

indeed there are, eg
View attachment 164433

Another tale from another time. Yet I am not allowed to forget.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sure but right now they're split on how to regenerate a social base - one side want to hark back to the Conservative party from days of yore, flags and church and traditionalism, and the other side want Thatcherism with a human, socially liberal face. Making them about as agile as

two social bases are better than one

 

[Smokeandsteam]

She wouldn’t be replaced to ‘end the split’. She would replaced for one side to seize power. The ERG boneheads know that it could split the party, but they may prefer a ‘pure offer’ because they believe it would make the party what it should be. Up until now the Tories have successfully avoided this, but the divisions are so great now, May so lacking in authority, that it is a real possibility.

But therein lies their problem -neither side fancies their chances of seizing power. As for the ERG they have already had a go and failed badly.

 

[rekil]

Looks like City of Sadness, what a great film.

Yep. The first in a list of 100 forrin fillums I lined up.

 

[SpackleFrog]

People's Vote campaigners frothing at Benn amendment by the way - not the right time etc.

This is interesting - Alistair Campbell saying fact that Caroline Flint supports shows it's not a good idea. I guess he means that the vote would be on May's deal v Remain and he's worried May's deal will win:

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sure but right now they're split on how to regenerate a social base - one side want to hark back to the Conservative party from days of yore, flags and church and traditionalism, and the other side want Thatcherism with a human, socially liberal face. Making them about as agile as

Yep, the very dilemma that the coalition solved for five years - Cameron could side definitively with the Thatcherism with a liberal face wing. May appears to be trying to be both of these things at the same time - as reflected in her oobleck brexit deal - and ends up pleasing neither wing.

 

[SpackleFrog]

But therein lies their problem -neither side fancies their chances of seizing power. As for the ERG they have already had a go and failed badly.

How many of the socially liberal side have already decided they'd be better off without the ERG? How many will decide that at some point? We already know the ERG can't take over the party.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

People's Vote campaigners frothing at Benn amendment by the way - not the right time etc.

This is interesting - Alistair Campbell saying fact that Caroline Flint supports shows it's not a good idea. I guess he means that the vote would be on May's deal v Remain and he's worried May's deal will win:

Yup. A major overreach at this point. If you are going to subvert a vote of 17 million plus people you need to follow the process.

 

[SpackleFrog]

two social bases are better than one

But one of those group is Remain and the other is Leave.

 

[Teaboy]

Its the Wollaston amendment and yes they don't appear to be happy. It's trying to call Labour out when Labour are clearly not ready.

 

[Kaka Tim]

How would replacing her with a remain supporter or a leave supporter 'restore order'? It would do the opposite never mind the absolute bloodbath of the leadership contest from which in the current moment they might not be able to recover from.

On your latter point there is simply not the mass - or a figure who a mass could or would unite around (can you imagine Amber Rudd speaking for Gove etc) - in the Cabinet.

When do you think she goes by the way? today? this week? this month?

well it wont "restore order" - but it might move things - right now the government is spiralling out of control.All precedent says that May can not survive. And if they decide they have to have a general election none of them want may fronting it.
They may think that some sort of "compromise" candidate (i.e. Gove) could limit the damage. They may well end up with something worse - a hard brexiteer in charge and the party splitting.

When does she go? Probably depends on what happens over the next 48 hours. a boat load of fuck knows - but if her deal gets finally killed - then it could be within days. If she manages to find some road to kick the can down - a couple of months.

All sorts could happen - enough tory mps could resign the whip and bring down the government, the ERG might declare UDI, a military coup led by the larry the cat. everything is on the table

 

[Teaboy]

Yup. A major overreach at this point. If you are going to subvert a vote of 17 million plus people you need to follow the process.

I'm against a second vote but you don't subvert a democratic process by having another democratic process. By that logic the last vote subverted the original Thatcher led referendum.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

How many of the socially liberal side have already decided they'd be better off without the ERG? How many will decide that at some point? We already know the ERG can't take over the party.

The problems for the double liberal wing is that a) they are not strong enough to emphatically defeat the other wing; b) they lack a candidate and c) to so do risks a split in which case they are all fucked.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I'm against a second vote but you don't subvert a democratic process by having another democratic process. By that logic the last vote subverted the original Thatcher led referendum.

What Thatcher referendum? if you mean the Wilson referendum the key difference is that that one was enacted and set the rules for 50 years.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The problems for the double liberal wing is that a) they are not strong enough to emphatically defeat the other wing; b) they lack a candidate and c) to so do risks a split in which case they are all fucked.

This is a fair point but I reckon someone like Gove or Sajid Javid might be up for having a go at trying to clear out the most hardline while still attempting to face both ways.

 

[killer b]

Hilariously, the People's Vote Campaign have come out against Sarah Woolaston's people's vote amendment, just as everyone was gearing up for a few hours screaming at Labour for whipping to abstain.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

All precedent says that May can not survive. And if they decide they have to have a general election none of them want may fronting it.

Precedent was ditched months ago. On the latter point I agree - she's already had to concede that however.

 

[Pickman's model]

What Thatcher referendum? if you mean the Ted Heath referendum the key difference is that that one was enacted and set the rules for 50 years.

40 years.

or rather 25, the labour referenda of c.1997 setting subsequent precedents esp the welsh devolution one setting the precedent on what to do with a very narrow majority

 

[Teaboy]

What Thatcher referendum? if you mean the Ted Heath referendum the key difference is that that one was enacted and set the rules for 50 years.

I meant this one,

But yes everything is predated by something.

 

[Pickman's model]

I meant this one,

But yes everything is predated by something.

she always reminds me of davros

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I meant this one,

But yes everything is predated by something.

That picture was taken during the referendum called by Harold Wilson.

What happened in 1975 was that voters decided to stay in the EEC. What then happened was that Britain stayed in the EEC.

Can you see the difference between that referendum and this one?

 

[Sprocket.]

What Thatcher referendum? if you mean the Ted Heath referendum the key difference is that that one was enacted and set the rules for 50 years.

Harold Wilson’s Labour government voted into power in the second GE of 74 promised the 75 referendum.

 

[Sprocket.]

That picture was taken during the referendum called by Harold Wilson.

What happened in 1975 was that voters decided to stay in the EEC. What then happened was that Britain stayed in the EEC.

Can you see the difference between that referendum and this one?

Cross post!

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Harold Wilson’s Labour government voted into power in the second GE of 74 promised the 75 referendum.

Indeed. if I remember correctly once we voted the Government enacted the decision too. What an old fashioned response eh?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

That picture was taken during the referendum called by Harold Wilson.

What happened in 1975 was that voters decided to stay in the EEC. What then happened was that Britain stayed in the EEC.

Can you see the difference between that referendum and this one?

Yeah, in 1975 people voted correctly.

 

[Sprocket.]

Indeed. if I remember correctly once we voted the Government enacted the decision too. What an old fashioned response eh?

The Labour Party started to regret it by 1980 though.

 

[ska invita]

Indeed. if I remember correctly once we voted the Government enacted the decision too. What an old fashioned response eh?

The government enacted it this time too.