BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[Flavour]

It most definitely will not be open season. We've been through this many times. The Tories prioritize keeping their party together over protecting the british economy from the potential chaos of a no deal exit. Withdrawing article 50 would split the party. It isn't going to happen. And Cornyn wouldn't do either in the unlikely event he won a GE

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Who would be mad enough to actually try and withdraw Article 50? Nobody is going to do that. Not may or any possible successor, GE or no GE. The only way A50 could be withdrawn would be if Remain won in a hypothetical 2nd ref which is similarly improbable. It's no deal brexit, as it's the result with fewest obstacles in its path.

How so? We already know that no deal doesn't have a majority in parliament, so if there is a vote on May's deal tomorrow as planned and it is defeated as expected, there will be a vote on no deal and it will be rejected. That leads to a vote on asking for an extension, which will also pass. I don't see any path to 'no deal' at the moment.

 

[Mr Moose]

It most definitely will not be open season. We've been through this many times. The Tories prioritize keeping their party together over protecting the british economy from the potential chaos of a no deal exit. Withdrawing article 50 would split the party. It isn't going to happen. And Cornyn wouldn't do either in the unlikely event he won a GE

A no deal would be equally likely to split it.

Fudge. Like they make in Norway.

 

[Flavour]

A vote to reject no deal does not change the legal default on march 29. An extension would be conditional on Britain changing its red lines. At best you're looking at a no deal exit after a short term bullshit extension where nothing happens.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A vote to reject no deal does not change the legal default on march 29. An extension would be conditional on Britain changing its red lines. At best you're looking at a no deal exit after a short term bullshit extension where nothing happens.

Or Britain changes its red lines. I think an extension really would be the end of May's deal. It ought to be the end of May, but we'll see. If it does, then all bets are off.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The UK asking for an extension is pretty much nailed on i would say. the big question is what the EU would want in exchange for granting one - im pretty sure they will not just give may another couple of months keep fucking about going nowhere. So she may have - finally - run out of road.

 

[Gerry1time]

In general I'd agree with you but here I think there's a number of 2nd refers (from all parties) that might decide that the best way to get a 2nd Referendum would be to block a GE. The LD and tinge have already hinted at that with their ruling out of a VoNC in May.

Just when you thought that one tiny, tiny part of the current political situation might be relatively straightforward...

 

[Gerry1time]

im pretty sure they will not just give may another couple of months keep fucking about going nowhere.

I really hope she just snaps under the pressure, and asks them for exactly that using exactly those words.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I don’t think any of the options will get through parliament but I don’t know what that means? I guess May will have to piss off just to get some movement and then that changes things? The deal or cancelled or soft brexit after an extension seem more likely to me than a no deal.

Parliament and government have turned the country into an international laughing stock.

I couldn’t move in Paris for people laughing at me, the rumours are true.

 

[marty21]

Queen wrests control from parliament, revokes a.50

that would get the brexiters into a right old fizz

 

[8ball]

that would get the brexiters into a right old fizz

She would seem more likely to wrest control from Parliament so that we can frolic on the sunlit uplands of WTO terms.

 

[danny la rouge]

sunlit uplands

There was trouble* last time someone used that phrase!


(*racist cartoons).

 

[redsquirrel]

Corbyn / front bench genuinely wants an election so it would pass.

That's probably true but I don't think it's certain. Lots of Labour and Tory 2nd refers might resist, the tinge will probably try to block and LDs could vote against.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That's probably true but I don't think it's certain. Lots of Labour and Tory 2nd refers might resist, the tinge will probably try to block and LDs could vote against.

Hard for any opposition mp to vote against a GE, though. Hard to justify publicly wanting to prop up a government. You could potentially have a situation where the govt wants a GE but the opposition blocks it. No. You stay in power whether you want to or not.

 

[butchersapron]

In general I'd agree with you but here I think there's a number of 2nd refers (from all parties) that might decide that the best way to get a 2nd Referendum would be to block a GE. The LD and tinge have already hinted at that with their ruling out of a VoNC in May.

This types know full well a general election will see the end of their voice It's the last thing they want.

 

[redsquirrel]

Hard for any opposition mp to vote against a GE, though. Hard to justify publicly wanting to prop up a government. You could potentially have a situation where the govt wants a GE but the opposition blocks it. No. You stay in power whether you want to or not.

Both tinge and the LDs have stated that they won't vote for a VoNC in the government (which could lead to a GE). Logically the same position should apply here, and they would try to sell opposition to a GE as a practical measure to force a 2nd referendum.

 

[andysays]

How so? We already know that no deal doesn't have a majority in parliament, so if there is a vote on May's deal tomorrow as planned and it is defeated as expected, there will be a vote on no deal and it will be rejected. That leads to a vote on asking for an extension, which will also pass. I don't see any path to 'no deal' at the moment.

Assuming there is a vote for an extension and assuming it does pass, there is still considerable uncertainty about what sort of extension the other EU states would be willing to grant, and under what conditions. See here, for example

The prediction now in Brussels is that Theresa May will end up asking the EU for an extension - a short one - to this negotiating period. Which she will get (under EU law, all 27 EU leaders need to agree on this). But you may be shocked to hear that the "short" three-month extension being debated in the UK is not the same "short" Brexit delay the EU has in mind right now.

EU Parliament elections are held between 23 and 26 May. If the UK doesn't want to field its own candidates in the vote, then the current thinking in Brussels is that Brexit has to happen around 20 May.

And if you are hoping for that infamous "EU blink" before then, I will leave you with the thoughts of a well-placed Brussels official: "Things would be different, if Theresa May had one, clear objective in these last-minute negotiations. A clear concession - that we could grant at a push - that would turn things around definitively in Westminster."

"But we look at the UK and everyone seems to be fighting everyone - about the backstop or whether Brexit should happen at all; over Norway or no deal and whether Theresa May should stay or go. There are splits in the prime minister's cabinet; we even see UK civil servants disagreeing amongst themselves now. These are UK domestic problems, yet the prime minister looks to us (the EU) to sort it out. We can't. We simply can't."

As things stand, it would be Theresa May asking for an extension, and the sort of extension the EU27 are prepared to offer might not be one which she is prepared to accept.

 

[8ball]

I find it interesting how a second referendum is seen as such a terrible option.

 

[Wilf]

I notice amid all the harrumphing in the house of commons, May has fucked off to church. Corbyn miffed that they put a minion up against him.

Mother of Parliaments.

 

[8ball]

...May has fucked off to church...

So this is the stage we're at.

 

[Wilf]

So this is the stage we're at.

'Go back to your constituencies and pray for deliverance'.

 

[danny la rouge]

I find it interesting how a second referendum is seen as such a terrible option.

Well, it’s like when people ask you something then when they don’t like the answer keep saying “do you really mean that, though?”

However you voted, it’s surely obvious that flaking and saying “for real, though?” is just the most irritating response.

 

[Wilf]

Amid the carnage caused by a bit more paperwork at the border, the likes of Gove and Johnson will be first in line for the underground emergency shelters. Rees Mogg will be wandering round the blackened landscape like the wraith of a demented Duke of Wellington.

 

[8ball]

Well, it’s like when people ask you something then when they don’t like the answer keep saying “do you really mean that, though?”

However you voted, it’s surely obvious that flaking and saying “for real, though?” is just the most irritating response.

Depends on whether what you were promised bears any resemblance to what gets delivered.
No one objects massively to Amazon having a returns policy.

 

[Supine]

A general election wouldn't solve the brexit issue anyway. Brexit doesn't fall on the left / right spectrum so it wouldnt give a mandate for brexit.

2nd ref here we come

 

[8ball]

A general election wouldn't solve the brexit issue anyway. Brexit doesn't fall on the left / right spectrum so it wouldnt give a mandate for brexit.

Indeed. It's a Tory internecine squabble that has mutated.

 

[Wilf]

Well, it’s like when people ask you something then when they don’t like the answer keep saying “do you really mean that, though?”

However you voted, it’s surely obvious that flaking and saying “for real, though?” is just the most irritating response.

Would you like tea of coffee?
- Tea please.
...
My government has spent the last 2 years, entirely focused on sorting your brew
- Great, can I have my tea please?
We believe this tea is the best possible beverage that can be achieved
- Sounds good, so can I have my brew? Getting a bit parched now.

...
Erm, are you sure you really want a brew?

 

[Pickman's model]

Indeed. It's a Tory internecine squabble that has mutated.

metastasized

 

[8ball]

metastasized

Depends where you draw the limits of the 'host' in your analogy, but that will also do.

 

[chilango]

'Go back to your constituencies and pray for deliverance'.

Was about to say her church isn't actually in her constituency...but when I double checked I'm astonished to see how close to Reading the Maidenhead constituency comes