BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[farmerbarleymow]

It's such a fucking shitshow I've no idea wtf is going to happen.

Parliament and government have turned the country into an international laughing stock.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Tuesday: Parliament rejects May's deal
Wednesday: Parliament rejects no deal
Thursday: Parliament rejects extension to A50

Nowhere to go but leave without a deal on 29th. Job's a good'un.

How do you get that? Parliament won't reject an extension.

 

[SpackleFrog]

But would a GE result in a parliamentary majority for any kind of Brexit/Breentry? Feels like a very long winded way to end up right back where they started

It has to be long winded. Would be ok for them cos they could start again with a new leader. Or just give up. Either way. Eventually, no Brexit.

 

[Dogsauce]

I think May’s most recent strategy has been to use the threat of ‘no brexit’ rather than the threat of no deal to bring people round to her inflexible deal. Giving Labour/people’s vote types a bit of rope has been very much part of this, however a second vote is just as unlikely as a no deal at the moment and I don’t think many are fooled. Still won’t give her the numbers.

Can’t see it going anywhere with May being as stubborn as she is, so until she’s jettisoned it’ll just go round in circles. Only way out is a GE, probably after an extension, which (on current standings) the tories will gain from, possibly with enough seats to get a May-type deal through without significant trouble or a need for bribery. This would also be helped by them having a leader with enough humility to bring both sides of the party onboard, maybe only Gove able to do this, although I don’t discount the membership sticking a headbanger in charge and the whole fuckshow dragging on until some other events (something of the magnitude of a good war) overshadow the process and it’s thrown to one side indefinitely.

 

[redsquirrel]

... and the tories call a snap general election.

The vermin would have to elect another leader before announcing a GE.

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the Tories cannot just call a GE. There needs to a vote in the HoC with a 2/3 rds majority.

Considering 2017 I think there will be more than a few on the Tory (and Labour) benches that are wary of a new GE, and both the LDs and tinge have said that they are pushing for a 2nd referendum rather than a VoNC in the Tories (which could lead to a GE). So getting a 2/3rds majority through the HoC is not inevitable.

 

[Flavour]

No deal can still happen even if they vote to reject it and there is no guarantee the EU will accept an a50 extension. They won't give it without conditions

 

[MrCurry]

I’ve got to say, I really don’t know much about all this, because I’ve mostly been covering my eyes and shaking my head for the past 18 months. But because it’s fun to speculate, I’m going to guess that the EU will not be making any last minute concessions, because they probably don’t believe “hard Brexit” will happen.

That being the case, I can’t see how May’s deal will make it through parliament, even with the last gasp support of brexiteer MPs. So this will leave us looking down the barrel of a hard Brexit or an article 50 extension. I’m going to go with A50 extension as most likely, but this has to be granted by the EU side, who already said they won’t give a short extension.

So are we looking at a 2 year extension, with an election followed by 2nd ref? Or am I waaaayyyy off the mark?

 

[Libertad]

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the Tories cannot just call a GE. There needs to a vote in the HoC with a 2/3 rds majority.

I know that, it was lazy shorthand because I couldn't really give a fuck. Not my circus, not my monkeys.

 

[redsquirrel]

I know that, it was lazy shorthand because I couldn't really give a fuck. Not my circus, not my monkeys.

Sure just wanted to make the point that the FTP act does slightly constrain the governments options here

 

[Kaka Tim]

I see a that quite a few people have gone for "mays deal after a short extension"

there are two problems with this. Firstly the EU27 have to grant the extension - and they will be very reluctant to have another 3 months of may going round and round in circles trying to force her deal through. They could make an extension conditional on the UK taking a significant step towards resolving the whole shit show - a 2nd ref, a general election, a new government.

Also - i dont know why people think mays deal will get through if she has another crack at it. People have been saying this since dec - that labour brexiteers will come round, that the DUP will be bought off, the all but the hardcore of the ERG will fold for fear of no brexit .
But tuesday will be the third time they have tried and failed to get it through - (they pulled the vote in Dec cos they knew they would get defeated). But the opposition to the deal has not softened because absolutely nothing has changed - and nothing will - the backstop is going nowhere and the EU are not going to re-open negotiations.

I think there is a good chance that May gets pushed out after tuesday in the hope that a new leader will be able to change the fundamentals - and also clearing the decks for a General Election.

 

[Mr Moose]

No deal can still happen even if they vote to reject it and there is no guarantee the EU will accept an a50 extension. They won't give it without conditions

But Article Fiddy can be cancelled and reissued. Or not reissued.

 

[MrCurry]

Just wondering - what happens if an article 50 extension is requested by the Uk but denied by the EU side? Does that leave the UK with a choice of hard Brexit or withdraw A50 entirely?

 

[flypanam]

Also - i dont know why people think mays deal will get through if she has another crack at it. People have been saying this since dec - that labour brexiteers will come round, that the DUP will be bought off, the all but the hardcore of the ERG will fold for fear of no brexit .
But tuesday will be the third time they have tried and failed to get it through - (they pulled the vote in Dec cos they knew they would get defeated). But the opposition to the deal has not softened because absolutely nothing has changed - and nothing will - the backstop is going nowhere and the EU are not going to re-open negotiations.

The IT did a poll in the north that survey Catholics and Protestants, the findings of which will put the shits up the DUP, even their own base is hacked off with them, dropping to 20% approval. They may have to take note that even their core support in and around East Belfast, Ballymena and Colraine are unhappy. I think the poll even drilled down to the fact that the majority in the north would rather see customs checks between the North and Britain than at the partition border.

Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI Poll | The Irish Times
Inside Politics Podcast | The Irish Times

 

[redsquirrel]

The IT did a poll in the north that survey Catholics and Protestants, the findings of which will put the shits up the DUP, even their own base is hacked off with them, dropping to 20% approval.

Yes, and that's another reason why more MPs will be wary about any GE.

 

[Gerry1time]

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the Tories cannot just call a GE. There needs to a vote in the HoC with a 2/3 rds majority.

Considering 2017 I think there will be more than a few on the Tory (and Labour) benches that are wary of a new GE, and both the LDs and tinge have said that they are pushing for a 2nd referendum rather than a VoNC in the Tories (which could lead to a GE). So getting a 2/3rds majority through the HoC is not inevitable.

Yep, fair point, lazy language on my part I confess. I do still think though the FTPA is a bit toothless in reality. If the government decides to go for a GE, and the opposition gives a free vote or whips against it, then there's a whole bunch of shouting 'chicken / what are you scared of' at them that they incur. How can you claim to be a government in waiting when you reject the chance of a GE? But yes, it's not entirely straight forward these days.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yep, fair point, lazy language on my part I confess. I do still think though the FTPA is a bit toothless in reality. If the government decides to go for a GE, and the opposition gives a free vote or whips against it, then there's a whole bunch of shouting 'chicken / what are you scared of' at them that they incur. How can you claim to be a government in waiting when you reject the chance of a GE? But yes, it's not entirely straight forward these days.

Yeah this is the thing it's quite difficult for the opposition to say no to an election - although I distinctly remember many Labour lefts actually arguing they should in 2017 and that it was "irresponsible" of May to do so at that time.

 

[Dogsauce]

Labour right would be up for it as a chance to eject Corbyn if they don’t get anything other than a landslide. Any other outcomes would be acceptable to achieve this, such as Tory rule forever.

 

[redsquirrel]

Yep, fair point, lazy language on my part I confess. I do still think though the FTPA is a bit toothless in reality. If the government decides to go for a GE, and the opposition gives a free vote or whips against it, then there's a whole bunch of shouting 'chicken / what are you scared of' at them that they incur. How can you claim to be a government in waiting when you reject the chance of a GE? But yes, it's not entirely straight forward these days.

In general I'd agree with you but here I think there's a number of 2nd refers (from all parties) that might decide that the best way to get a 2nd Referendum would be to block a GE. The LD and tinge have already hinted at that with their ruling out of a VoNC in May.

 

[DotCommunist]

I was leaning towards mays deal, expecting a good chunk of Lab to shit it/smite corbyn/mah constituents and vote for it. But now I'm not so sure.

 

[SpackleFrog]

In general I'd agree with you but here I think there's a number of 2nd refers (from all parties) that might decide that the best way to get a 2nd Referendum would be to block a GE. The LD and tinge have already hinted at that with their ruling out of a VoNC in May.

That's a good point but if Tories and Labour both called an election they wouldn't be able to stop it and would look like they were afraid of losing seats if they tried - particularly in the case of the SNP who have a lot of seats to lose and not many to win.

 

[ska invita]

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the Tories cannot just call a GE. There needs to a vote in the HoC with a 2/3 rds majority.

Considering 2017 I think there will be more than a few on the Tory (and Labour) benches that are wary of a new GE, and both the LDs and tinge have said that they are pushing for a 2nd referendum rather than a VoNC in the Tories (which could lead to a GE). So getting a 2/3rds majority through the HoC is not inevitable.

Corbyn / front bench genuinely wants an election so it would pass.

If an election was Tory negotiated no deal v labour soft brexit Labour might win it even.

 

[alsoknownas]

General election is what Corbyn and those around him want too and I assume they would whip hard to support any motion. Bound to pass if initiated by Torys I would have thought.

 

[skyscraper101]

It's such a fucking shitshow I've no idea wtf is going to happen.

Parliament and government have turned the country into an international laughing stock.

This.

 

[xenon]

Anyone think she'll pull the vote again tomorrow.

Is a vote on ruling out No Deal, actually what happens if May's deal is rejected tomorrow. Or is it speculative / wishful thinking by some? Maybe I've missed where this has been confirmed amongst all the meaningless meaningful votes.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Anyone think she'll pull the vote again tomorrow.

Is a vote on ruling out No Deal, actually what happens if May's deal is rejected tomorrow. Or is it speculative / wishful thinking by some? Maybe I've missed where this has been confirmed amongst all the meaningless meaningful votes.

There is supposedly a timetable - it all happens this week: Tues May's deal is rejected, Wed there is a vote on No deal, Thu there is a vote on asking to extend.

 

[Dogsauce]

It’d be funny if the margin of defeat was even larger than last time. Unlikely, but still.

I guess if it looks clear that it won’t pass, more likely people won’t support it as they get to signal their brexitiness without any consequence.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Can't really vote in this. I can't see May's deal winning tomorrow, and if it loses (if it's put to a vote at all), it seems inevitable then that no deal will be ruled out and an extension requested. The EU has said effectively that such an extension would have to mean the end (finally!!) of May's deal, so that ought to mean the end of May, but that's where logic breaks down and I can't see any further through the filthy brown water.

 

[Mr Moose]

Anyone think she'll pull the vote again tomorrow.

Is a vote on ruling out No Deal, actually what happens if May's deal is rejected tomorrow. Or is it speculative / wishful thinking by some? Maybe I've missed where this has been confirmed amongst all the meaningless meaningful votes.

The vote ruling out no deal doesn’t change the fact that leaving is statute. The Govt would still have to do something to stop it.

The mad old bat and colleagues could still drive us out without a deal, though the Tory Party would combust as it happened.

 

[Flavour]

Who would be mad enough to actually try and withdraw Article 50? Nobody is going to do that. Not may or any possible successor, GE or no GE. The only way A50 could be withdrawn would be if Remain won in a hypothetical 2nd ref which is similarly improbable. It's no deal brexit, as it's the result with fewest obstacles in its path.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Who would be mad enough to actually try and withdraw Article 50? Nobody is going to do that. Not may or any possible successor, GE or no GE. The only way A50 could be withdrawn would be if Remain won in a hypothetical 2nd ref which is similarly improbable. It's no deal brexit, as it's the result with fewest obstacles in its path.

May can't do it, but when she's gone it's open season.