And next, Syria?

[CrabbedOne]

In JPost COMMENT: ASSAD’S POLITICAL ALCHEMY

...
ASSAD’S GAS delivery is part of a strategic vision.

The location of the attacks this week, the town of Khan Sheikhoun, is just east of the Nusayriyah Mountains, the Alawite minority’s stronghold east of Syria’s Mediterranean coastline. At the same time, the town also sits smack on the M5 highway, Syria’s most important artery, which runs from the Jordanian border through Damascus and Homs to Aleppo.

The gas attack and the hospital bombings that followed it are part of an ethnic-cleansing effort that is designed to chase Sunni populations to the east of this north-south axis and replace them with Shi’ite Arabs from Iraq.

The quest to remap Syria ethnically has been raised by Iranian negotiators in talks with the Syrian opposition. The Iranian rationale is clear. Having already consolidated its political grip on Baghdad, Tehran now wants to extend its reach to the Mediterranean, by cultivating a belt of predominantly Shi’ite communities checkered by an assortment of subservient non-Sunni minorities.

Assad’s interest in this scheme is obvious. He will rule over a shrunken but much more cohesive Syria.

The problem is his other great ally, Russia. Iran’s plan leads to a clash of imperial wills with Moscow.

Moscow’s entry into the Syrian war was sparked by NATO’s removal of Russian ally Muammar Gaddafi, but the Kremlin’s deeper motivation was the historic Russian quest for a warm-water seaport. All czars since Peter the Great sought such a maritime prize, but Russia won it only 250 years after his death, when Hafez Assad leased the Tartus seaport to the USSR.

This is what Vladimir Putin was out to secure when he unleashed his fighter jets on Assad’s rebels, and this is what the Iranians are now threatening, whether consciously or not.

Israeli intelligence believes the Iranians are out to build their own seaport in Syria. That is what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Putin during their meeting in Moscow last month. Netanyahu would not peddle such a report to the Kremlin, had it not been convincingly substantiated.
...

An Israeli view.

 

[not-bono-ever]

The iran seaport theme has been kicking around for some years, propelled mostly by Israel and ranging from an informal dock to a land corridor linking Iran to the mediterranean scenario - but is there any factual basis to this ? I am loath to take anything uttered by Netty as fact just yet

 

[CrabbedOne]

In Arutz Sheva No to bombing Syria

...
Despite all this, it was right not to intervene because Iranian- and Russian-backed Shi'ite pro-government jihadis are best kept busy fighting Saudi-, Qatar-, and Turkish-backed anti-government Sunni jihadis; because Kurds, however appealing, are not contenders for control of the whole of Syria; and because Americans have no stomach for another Middle Eastern war.

The direct American involvement that a few hours ago with nearly 60 cruise missiles in an hour attacking Shayrat Air Base implies siding with one side against the other, even though both of them are hideously repugnant. (While the regime has done the great preponderance of the killing, estimated at 94 percent, that's due only to its greater destructive power, not the humanitarianism of ISIS and its other enemies.)

I see this military action as an error. Nothing in the U.S. Constitution requires that American forces fight in every war around the world; this one should be sat out, letting enemies of the United States fight each other to exhaustion.Midd

The immense resources of the United States should be dedicated, rather, to two goals: reduce human suffering with blankets and soup and prevent the stronger side (now the regime) from winning through the provision of intelligence and arms to the weaker side (the Sunni rebels).

Trump should immediately cease all direct attacks on the Syrian regime and instead help its enemies to fight it more effectively.

Daniel Pipes ever the humanist. Though not that different an approach to the one taken on the Iran-Iraq war.

 

[kebabking]

On The Aviationist US military has launched 59 cruise missiles at airbase in Syria. Here’s what we know so far.

If that's what the aviationist knows, then look elsewhere for information.

The blurb on the S400/SA-21 system is laughable wishful thinking that ignores the laws of physics - i doubt that even the sales brochure makes those kind of claims, let alone reality.

It's also worth noting that the only way an SA-21 would get to 17,000 KPH is if you tied it to a comet and the comet went zooming off into the far reaches of the solar system.

The US will probably release some battle damage assessment photos in the next few days, we'll see then if a weapon that's been in service for 25 years or so and has a 95+% reliability record has suddenly stopped working 60% of the time...

 

[Teaboy]

If that's what the aviationist knows, then look elsewhere for information.

The blurb on the S400/SA-21 system is laughable wishful thinking that ignores the laws of physics - i doubt that even the sales brochure makes those kind of claims, let alone reality.

It's also worth noting that the only way an SA-21 would get to 17,000 KPH is if you tied it to a comet and the comet went zooming off into the far reaches of the solar system.

So as a system its useless?

 

[kebabking]

So as a system its useless?

It's not useless, you wouldn't want to be flying at medium/high-level in an unstealthy aircraft with crap ECM/DAS within a long way of one - but it's not a super system, it's radars can't see below the horizon, it's still tied to a fixed position, and while the Russians tend not to export the most capable versions of their military equipment, the capabilities/vulnerabilities of the system are not unknown to the US. Not least because the Russians sold it to a NATO member...

There's also the most basic truth - no SAM system anywhere has ever lived up to even half the hype it's surrounded by. There's not a single 'missile barrier of death' that has stopped the opposing air force laying waste to the country it's supposed to be defending.

I'll believe in an effective SAM system when i see one...

 

[CrabbedOne]

The iran seaport theme has been kicking around for some years, propelled mostly by Israel and ranging from an informal dock to a land corridor linking Iran to the mediterranean scenario - but is there any factual basis to this ? I am loath to take anything uttered by Netty as fact just yet

The Iranian Med port thing is not such a big deal. The Iranians have so much influence in Lebanon they now virtually own the place. I have read Israeli articles that really worry more about the not less dangerous Russians bulking up their naval/air presence. A former Israeli enemy that is currently friendly but could turn nasty.

However supply to HA is really the main strategic reason Iran has an iron commitment to Syria. Without a good communication line to HA their ability to deter IAF attacks on Iran would wither. The Iranian Ground Line Of Control out via Anbar to HA in the Bekka Valley was available up to 2013. The GLOC's closure has been mitigated by massive air supply but they do want it back. HA has been consolidating control out back from the Lebanese border to Damascus since they entered the war and saved Assad. There's IS and still some rebels/Jordanian mercenaries in the way. The next bit of Iran's war with IS may feature a push into Syria by their Iraqi assets.

HA are quite frank about wanting to have a crack at the Israelis. It is their raison d'être. Their Iraqi Hashd allies make similar noises that the fun on the Golan will really start after the rebellion/IS is shutdown. This is genuinely quite a big problem for the Israelis. HA always a canny defensive enemy thanks to Syria has got bigger tougher and skilled in big offensive operations. They can call on a large international reserve of Shia militia men providing perhaps 1-2 Divisions. Their missile arsenal has expanded and is thought to held in reserve in Syria under what is now a dense Russian Aerial Defence network. The Israelis have a MV with the Russians over hitting supply to HA occasionally but it has its limits. The Iranians are also building air assault units modelled on Russian practices. They've built up a unique ability to bolt on line IRGC and HA officers onto militia units. The IDF is still massively superior but this is potentially dangerous hybrid force unlike anything they've faced. It does make IS and AQ look like chicken shit operations.

Assad needs this capability to survive and without it the Russian would sinking tens of thousands of their own men into a Syrian quagmire. Neither want trouble with the Israelis but it is probably coming.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

don't know if it's been posted somewhere already but I saw this shared via Leila al-Shami's twitter

link here for any who can't see twitter posts

it's a google doc of a large collection of links to various articles and resources (including documentaries and pdfs of books). I've not yet had a chance to look through it really myself but I thought I'd pass it on in case it is of interest to anyone.

for info, the section headings are:
regime oppression (historical + current)
stats on damage
prison torture
syrian women and state violence
civil and nonviolent defense
palestine/yarmouk
sieges
chemical weapons
syrian armed opposition
the left and syria
syrian refugees (with subsections for different countries)
syrian refugees/idps and gendered violence
interviews
primary accounts
resources (databases, statistics, media archives + more)
details on specific cities in the conflict (Dara'a, Raqqa, Damascus, Homs, Aleppo)
international community's failures

Will be very interested in reading that when I get the time, important to share this information so that these struggles and the people involved are not forgotten.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's not useless, you wouldn't want to be flying at medium/high-level in an unstealthy aircraft with crap ECM/DAS within a long way of one - but it's not a super system, it's radars can't see below the horizon, it's still tied to a fixed position, and while the Russians tend not to export the most capable versions of their military equipment, the capabilities/vulnerabilities of the system are not unknown to the US. Not least because the Russians sold it to a NATO member...

There's also the most basic truth - no SAM system anywhere has ever lived up to even half the hype it's surrounded by. There's not a single 'missile barrier of death' that has stopped the opposing air force laying waste to the country it's supposed to be defending.

I'll believe in an effective SAM system when i see one...

 

[teqniq]

 

[butchersapron]

The public release of 'the other plan' - the one that Trump considered too much right now, was not an accident. He isn't trapped by assad as putin is.

 

[teqniq]

What 'other plan''?

 

[butchersapron]

What 'other plan''?

Far more extensive attacks across a range of targets.

 

[teqniq]

Far more extensive attacks across a range of targets.

I did't see this anywhere, I've been at work since yesterday. Have you got a link?

 

[butchersapron]

I did't see this anywhere, I've been at work since yesterday. Have you got a link?

Yep.

 

[teqniq]

ta

 

[kebabking]

Assuming that it's true, it suggests that Assad doesn't quite grasp how ego driven and toddler-like Trump is - if you want him to go away, you take the punch and lie on the floor until he gets distracted by the next shiny thing. Do not just get back up again and go 'ner-ner, nah-ner' - coz he'll come back, outraged at the explicit slur on his might and power...

 

[butchersapron]

Assuming that it's true, it suggests that Assad doesn't quite grasp how ego driven and toddler-like Trump is - if you want him to go away, you take the punch and lie on the floor until he gets distracted by the next shiny thing. Do not just get back up again and go 'ner-ner, nah-ner' - coz he'll come back, outraged at the explicit slur on his might and power...

He could - and has - got away with that with russia as they are now trapped. Not so Trump. No sirree.

 

[Buckaroo]

 

[butchersapron]

Sort of thing not posted on here for age:

How should progressives respond? Many have understandably reacted with revulsion at Assad’s crime, and compassion for the victims. The “anti-imperialist” left, however, remains perplexed. It is “anti war” but not against the war that Assad has been waging on his people since 2011.

The only time during the past six years that the anti-war movement was stirred into action regarding Syria was in August 2013, when, after a chemical attack on Eastern Ghouta killed over 1,400 civilians, it came out not to protest the atrocity but to reject any attempt to hold the perpetrators accountable (the British “Stop the War Coalition” banned Syrians from its platform, though it made an exception for a regime representative). Indeed, prominent left-wingers showed greater alacrity than the Kremlin in trying to absolve Assad, blaming victims, fabricating evidence.

Four years on, there is little sign of contrition. Even as the smell of sarin lingers over Khan Sheikhoun, former U.S. Representative Dennis Kucinich is in London making a case for rehabilitating Assad and writer and activist Phyllis Bennis is casting doubt on the regime’s responsibility—not just for this attack, but also for the one in 2013. Small wonder that few Syrians see the Western left as allies in their struggle for justice and self-determination.

For the left to become relevant again, it will need to revive an old principle: “no justice, no peace.” Without accountability for war crimes—rebel or regime—there is no hope of ending the carnage. And without Assad’s removal, half the country will remain displaced. It is time to put civilians, not states, at the center of our concerns.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TNI How Russia Will Respond to America's Missile Strike in Syria

Simple enough: cease what cooperation there was with US and just attack the "moderate" rebels more aggressively. It'll mimic the long sulk with Turkey.

Like the Iranians they may now seek to gradually exclude the US from Syria.

What this doesn't consider is the regime's Sarin stocks. The Israelis will want that gone.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Lawfare China’s Surprising Refusal to Criticize the Legality of the U.S. Attack on Syria

...
There are numerous possible explanations. One is that since the strikes occurred while Chinese President Xi Jinping was in the middle of a summit with President Trump, the Chinese government felt it was not in a position to issue a full-throated criticism. Another is that China has much less invested in the Assad regime than Russia (which did not hesitate to condemn the strikes as a violation of international law). China has joined Russia in blocking UNSC actions on Syria and has generally stood with Russia in the UN on all other aspects of the Syria crisis. But no doubt it cares less than Russia does. And it may see a U.S. that is entangled in Syria as a U.S. will be less able to harass its interests in North Korea or the South China.

Or is it possible that there is a real shift in Chinese thinking on the legality or propriety of these kinds of military strikes? It is way too soon to tell, but it is certainly something to keep an eye on.

Well it is only Syria. Chinese interests are really limited.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TAC Bombing Syria Doesn’t Provide Humanitarian Relief

Contrary to the way it has been framed, the Trump administration’s bombing of a Syrian military base has virtually nothing to do with humanitarian relief. Hurling 50 Tomahawk missiles at a single military base does not fundamentally undermine the Assad regime’s ability to harm its own people, and it has zero chance of altering the military and political realities on the ground. It is merely a symbolic gesture intended to deter further use of chemical weapons.

The problem with this rationale, from a humanitarian perspective, is that by last week the Assad regime had killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians with conventional weapons. On Tuesday, it reportedly killed about 75 people with chemical weapons. If saving Syrians from regime violence is the justification, this is a wholly irrational way to go about doing it.
...

Trump's framing this as being about "regional stability". That's Blob speak for Israel. I'd not assume he's seen the light over Assad as yet. Trump may have experienced a genuine moment of compassion but a large part of his schtick is about demonising Muslims.

His was a rather calibrated attack but undoubtedly an escalation. The R+6 response will be as always a counter-escalation.

I would expect the tempo of Russian air strikes to lift. This can rapidly kill far more Syrians than Sarin attacks would.

Assad may well be chastened his Sarin gambit caused Trump to draw a clear redline. Assad has little real capacity to escalate beyond doing something like dump Sarin on some kids again and even he is not that boneheaded. He's lost some scarce air frames and that may save some rebel lives as his air is more indiscriminate than the Russians. Loyalist air simply went on bombing after Trump's attack and there's even reports of chlorine being used. Chlorine isn't what worries the Israelis. Now an ugly bombing of a humanitarian convoy that would be Bashar's style. Again test Trump's limits but he's essentially a timid critter and may bide his time.

The Iranians are the ones to watch. Where the US is vulnerable is actually in Iraq. It has 12K+ people deployed there and they are in proximity to far larger number of IRGC backed militias. The Iranians do want IS suppressed in Iraq. They want Mosul taken, Tal Afar, al Qiam opening up land routes to supply HA so it's a bit early to be blowing up US soldiers. This is the sort of situation where they might grab hostages.

And what Trump will do is less predictable at he's simply erratic but he's liable to be in a more difficult spot than he was a week ago.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's blog US strikes in Syria: This isn't regime change (but it might be)

...
Risks of escalation

The only way to bring about a real change in the government in Damascus would be through destroying the regime militarily.

Even supposing no insertion of troops on the ground, such a campaign would entail unacceptable risks, whether in triggering a direct confrontation with Russian forces, creating large swaths of newly displaced people, or greatly empowering the likes of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

However, the volatility of the Trump administration means that a broader strategic shift in this direction cannot be completely ruled out. A sounder approach will recognise instead the need to minimise the humanitarian suffering and fall-out from the present state of the civil war.

Even if it becomes totally unfeasible to repeat strikes on regime positions, the fact that the regime has fewer aircraft to attack civilians as a result of this strike is by itself a positive development.

The two other main measures to be encouraged at this stage are letting into neighbouring countries more Syrians who risk being trapped by regime advances in places like Idlib, with more assistance to be provided to those countries, and keeping a firm distance from the Assad regime.

This means no provision of air assistance even on its frontlines against IS (as happened in Palmyra) and refraining from any cooperation on counter-terrorism grounds. Hopefully, this line of thinking becomes the established course of action

The trap Trump is in. Well he's sunk any GWOT collaboration with the Russians in Syria but this was always dubious.

Has the regime adopting its usual passive aggressive stance. Hunkered down for the long bloody slog.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In Politico So Trump Attacked Assad. What Now?

...
So what now? Assad cannot and will never put Syria back together again, but partition is not an answer. Foreign intervention for rapid regime change promises only further chaos, but determined U.S. leadership backed up by the credible and now proven threat of force presents the best opportunity in years to strong-arm actors on the ground into a phase of meaningful de-escalation, out of which eventually, a durable negotiation process may result. This is something Obama never understood: His efforts to broker peace failed because he refused even to consider threatening war. Every feeble threat given from an Obama podium effectively amounted to a further emboldening of the Assad regime’s sense of immunity and its free hand to murder its people en masse.

Bringing peace to Syria will undoubtedly necessitate a further strengthening of the U.S. posture toward the Syrian situation and toward Russia, Iran and other involved states. More military strikes and other assertive acts of diplomacy will be inevitable but if anything is now clear, it is that the U.S. has more freedom of action in Syria than the Obama administration was ever willing to admit. Opponents of limited U.S. intervention who have long and confidently pronounced the inevitability of conflict with Russia are now faced with the reality that Moscow failed to lift a finger when American missiles careered toward Assad regime targets. For now, that discovery was made through a tactical reaction to a brazen war crime, but a holistic strategy must now be developed that treats all threats emanating from Syria as individual components of a single problem: the Assad regime.

Russia’s seat on the U.N. Security Council and its conventional military assets make it appear to be the key obstacle to progress, but Iran is arguably a greater challenge. For Russia, Assad is disposable—an asset to potentially be haggled over at the negotiating table. But for Iran, the survival of the Assad regime remains an existential issue. While Russians privately acknowledge that Syria’s army retains no more than 20,000 offensively capable and deployable personnel, Iran-backed Syrian paramilitary and foreign militia forces may now number over 150,000 men. Some of those groups are designated terrorist organizations, legally no different from al Qaeda or ISIS. As one prominent Russian in Moscow recently told me in Europe, even Russia’s own Spetsnaz special forces have come to respect one such Iran-backed terrorist group — Hezbollah — more than the Syrian Army itself.
...

I think Lister's living in cloud cuckoo land here.

The Russians choose not to react militarily but start killing some of their guys even accidentally and this can go South rapidly. With deconfliction channels no longer in place with CENTCOM that'll be harder to avoid. We saw what happened with Turkey and the Turks were not without deterrent capability but ended up getting faced down and basically humiliated.

He may despise Assad but the bugger simply isn't disposable for Putin. This was just Lavrov smoke being blow up John Kerry's arse. The Assad clan is the linchpin of the Russian MENA strategy as it was for the Soviets. There is no plug and play replacement. And Assad needs Iranian support on the ground and financially even more than he needs the Russians.

 

[CrabbedOne]

He's right there, it's quite a significant degrade.

However Putin can always add more Russian air to the mix.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Thread on what Trump failed to do before making the strikes i.e. grill the Russians for completely failing to live up to their Syrian CW commitments. They do appear to somewhat complicit. There are CW storage containers littered about that base Russians military are sharing with the Syrians.

The desired political effect here is certainly at a minimum to get Assad to cough up his last stocks of Sarin and ensure he's not set up production again. For that to work you really need to squeeze Putin's balls. Now Trump's used one of the few fairly safe military coshes available without first bracing the Russians. But this is perhaps all Trump could do as Tillerson's State Department isn't really operational. The Donald doesn't do well prepared.

 

[CrabbedOne]

 

[CrabbedOne]

But Trump so far does appear very prone to mission creep. Trump sensibly to some extent gives the military planners their head. But he wants fast results and is prone to theatrical stunts. That's often not good in this sort of war amongst the people.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Good point but here the loss of life was much smaller. Assad's reply to Deir was to bomb an aid convoy a few days later.