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And next, Syria?

1) There has been and is a regime sectarianisation plan. It was there from 20012 when the shabihia hundrrds of killed men and women in an attempt to make it a a sectarian war - the easier for the regime to sell itself.

Regime thugs attacked anyone who protested the regime regardless of sectarian affiliation - so you can say the regime turned the revolt into a war (there were armed groups right from the beginning mind), but can you deny that it was the opposition who turned the war into a sectarian war? What happened in 2012 (and earlier) was a growing dominance among the opposition of a theme about the regime being a case of Alawite oppression of Sunnis, this later got served up by various secular liberal/nationalist/leftist allies of the Muslim Brotherhood (and other now "moderate" islamists) in a more palatable form for Western audiences. I don't remember anybody talking about the regime being a case of minority sect rule or about the regime's sectarian strategies in 2011, I remember prominent Alawites coming out against the regime and there were no shortage of Shabiha and killings in 2011.

There is nothing inevitable about the sectarian degeneration of the revolt and nothing inevitable about the regimes strategies succeeding (if you genuinely think there was some sort of sectarian strategy). And so regardless of whether there was some (cryptic?) sectarian plot being pushed by Assad, the writer you promote is still deflecting the essential business of critiquing the revolt onto a quick and easy "lets blame Assad for the sectarian nature of the conflict".

Regarding the figures - there are no reliable figures for who is killing more civilians, not even any rough approximations. More to the point why are you asking? What do you hope to prove with such figures? That the armed revolt only kill tens of thousands of civilians? What is the maximum amount of blood shed by these groups before they cease to be the lesser evil? Is that a sensible question? Besides the evil of the regime is not solely measured in terms of its conduct during the civil war and neither is the evil of the opposition regime to follow it.
 
Regime thugs attacked anyone who protested the regime regardless of sectarian affiliation - so you can say the regime turned the revolt into a war (there were armed groups right from the beginning mind), but can you deny that it was the opposition who turned the war into a sectarian war? What happened in 2012 (and earlier) was a growing dominance among the opposition of a theme about the regime being a case of Alawite oppression of Sunnis, this later got served up by various secular liberal/nationalist/leftist allies of the Muslim Brotherhood (and other now "moderate" islamists) in a more palatable form for Western audiences. I don't remember anybody talking about the regime being a case of minority sect rule or about the regime's sectarian strategies in 2011, I remember prominent Alawites coming out against the regime and there were no shortage of Shabiha and killings in 2011.

There is nothing inevitable about the sectarian degeneration of the revolt and nothing inevitable about the regimes strategies succeeding (if you genuinely think there was some sort of sectarian strategy). And so regardless of whether there was some (cryptic?) sectarian plot being pushed by Assad, the writer you promote is still deflecting the essential business of critiquing the revolt onto a quick and easy "lets blame Assad for the sectarian nature of the conflict".

Regarding the figures - there are no reliable figures for who is killing more civilians, not even any rough approximations. More to the point why are you asking? What do you hope to prove with such figures? That the armed revolt only kill tens of thousands of civilians? What is the maximum amount of blood shed by these groups before they cease to be the lesser evil? Is that a sensible question? Besides the evil of the regime is not solely measured in terms of its conduct during the civil war and neither is the evil of the opposition regime to follow it.

They attacked sunni villages and pretended to be alawites. You should know this. I don't want to read anything else from you now.
 

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If Damascus cleared the use of the poison gas in Idlib, it likely anticipated two scenarios: the US would either respond with punitive measures or continue to ignore such attacks. The regime knows that the consequences of the first scenario, while real, are limited. The regime, its backers as well as its opponents, recognise that the US has no interest whatsoever in destabilising it, at least while the threats of Isis and al-Qaida are still present. Contrary to popular narrative, even regional backers of the opposition have no interest in the disorderly fall of the regime.

Here, then, might have been the thinking before the attack: if the US were to opt for inaction, as usual, the regime would obviously stand to benefit from setting the tone against the new administration in Washington. Despite the change of rhetoric in Washington a week before, the situation in Syria was still fluid and the regime believes it had a high point of leverage as the US readies its troops to fight in Raqqa. Rather than showing gratitude to the changed tone, runs this theory, a regime such as the Syrian one would not risk wasting such an opportunity to double down and gain tangible compromises from the US, which can change its policy after Raqqa.

Russia has insisted that it opposes any offensive in Raqqa that does not go through Damascus and Moscow. Unlike previous US-led offensives against Isis, the regime positioned its troops near the front lines in Raqqa, as well as between Raqqa and areas controlled by the Turkish-backed rebels in the eastern countryside of Aleppo. So, in this scenario, the regime viewed that the time was ripe for playing rough with the Americans and the use of chemical weapons would be a tool of defiance.

And what if the US was to respond, as it did? Such a scenario counterintuitively serves a fundamental purpose for the regime, which goes to the heart of specific fears by Damascus and Tehran. Such fears arise from a stated plan by the Trump administration, to drive a wedge between Russia and Iran as a way to roll back Iranian influence in the region.
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Hassan Hassan is a very shrewd Syrian commentator always good at spotting hidden advantages.

The decision to use Sarin certainly seems to have fucked Putin's fading hope for detente with Trump. Assad often does things that are basically a poke in Putin's eye and demonstrating independence. But we don't know if the Russians were on board with poking Trumpski in the chest to test his limits though I think they'd be wary of the known danger of enraging the Israelis. I would not rule out Assad simply being a brutal twit under resource pressure who miscalculated. Why be in such a hurry in squabbling rebel held Idlib crawling with AQ that the Americans were already targeting?

On the other hand I can imagine folk in Teheran thinking Allah has been most generous and has probably welded in their Russian air cover. They do appear to be taking it better than I expected.
 
On Defense One Easy There, Blob. With Obama, We Faced A Different Syria
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One lesson learned from Obama’s “red line” was that it proved very difficult to achieve a common understanding of the goal. To Obama, the “red line” was always about the specific issue of Syria’s chemical weapons, not the future of Assad or how American military power should be used to shape the underlying dynamics of the Syrian civil war. But at the time and ever since, these issues often got conflated.

The same is true for Trump today. Unlike Obama, Trump has not made much of an effort to explain himself, and his advisors have offered different explanations of the overall goal. The president’s actions were those of an instinctual counter-puncher, a discrete use of military power to punish and deter Assad for using chemical weapons. Despite what many cheerleaders are asserting, I don’t see any evidence the strikes were intended to be an opening salvo in a fundamentally new approach of greater U.S. involvement in the Syrian conflict. In this sense, Trump’s action seems akin to President Bill Clinton’s Tomahawk strike on Baghdad in June 1993, to punish Saddam Hussein for trying to kill George H.W. Bush.

But could Trump’s intervention lead to more? This could happen by design, in which the new administration, now more confident in its abilities and feeling the wind at its back, threatens force to gain greater leverage over the Russians and Assad to negotiate a peace. Although such a larger strategy isn’t apparent, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Moscow this week will be pivotal (although if Russian President Vladmir Putin snubs him, then the visit will be a dud).

The likelier scenario is that greater intervention happens by default. As Obama learned the hard way in Libya, once intervention begins, the logic of deeper involvement is a powerful force — which is a key reason why he was so careful in Syria. As Trump comes under greater pressure to get more deeply involved, he will feel compelled to act to maintain his credibility — and given his almost pathological need to be seen as “tough” and proclivity to shoot before aiming, he seems especially vulnerable. If this happens, Trump — and all of us — will begin the familiar slide down the slippery slope.
The military equation has become a great deal more complicated:

Syria in 2017 V 2013=
-1,300 tons of CW but not all of it
- Much of the credible opposition
+ AQ in charge of half of Idlib revolt
+ IS taking Mosul
+ A US backed PKK war on IS
+ A PKK war in SE Turkey
+ An anti-PKK/IS Turkish incursion
+ Dense Russian AD and 30+ airframes
- 50K+ SAA conscripts
+ 20K of Iranian backed militias​
 
On The HillPoll: Slim majority supports strikes on Syria
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A HuffPost/YouGov survey finds 51 percent of Americans support the president's decision to order the airstrikes in retaliation for a chemical attack last week that killed civilians in northern Syrian.

Thirty-two percent of Americans are opposed to the strikes and 17 percent are uncertain.

Among Trump voters, 83 percent support the president's decision, while just 11 percent oppose it.

About 40 percent of Americans think the strikes were an appropriate response, compared to 25 percent who think they were too aggressive and 10 percent who think they were not aggressive enough.
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These are quite low support numbers. Marginal support and quite a lot of opposition. America has not just had a yeehaw moment. Trump has carried his voters despite the flip flop and Alt-Right outrage.

Consider this:
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Fifty percent of Americans believe the U.S. should not intervene in the wake of suspected chemical weapons attacks by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to the poll. But the public is more supportive of military action when it's limited to launching cruise missiles from U.S. naval ships — 50 percent favor that kind of intervention, while 44 percent oppose it.
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That's from 2013 and it's only 12% more anti the sort of strike Trump just tried and that was much more limited than what Obama spoke of doing i.e. "degrading Assad". Obama had painted himself into a corner but would have been taking a big political risk if he'd gone ahead.

Trump appears to have returned to something close to Obama's position in 2013 which focused on taking CW out of the Syrian equation while insisting Assad had to go eventually. If he was going to shift to a policy more focused on regime change he'd have a very big marketing job to do.
 
This article is two years old but it contains a lot of interesting stuff, things that I didn't know or really even think to consider about the role of Hezbollah as an anti-worker regional actor

Nationalism, resistance and revolution – International Socialism

There is no need to prove the bourgeois nature of Hizbollah or the Syrian regime, as many have written on this subject before; their bourgeois nature is irrefutably proven by their economic role, and in the case of Hizbollah, by the social and economic policies that they have adopted in the past few years. Hassan Nasrallah’s famous “We will not stand behind bread”,30or Hizbollah’s support for privatisation, its opposition to the demands of the trade union Coordinating Committee31 and the agreement it made with the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement to stop the state electricity company workers winning their demands, are all proof of Hizbollah’s bourgeois nature. Other indicators are the extensive sums Hizbollah invests in the real estate sector, which made the Southern suburbs of Beirut (a pro-Hizbollah stronghold) one of the most expensive neighbourhoods in greater Beirut. There is no need to mention the tuition fees of Hizbollah-run schools, which have become schools for the Shia middle classes rather than the poor, or the substantial amounts of money Hizbollah amasses through its healthcare institutions such as the Great Prophet Hospital in South Beirut. All of this proves that Hizbollah is the party of the Shia middle classes and bourgeoisie, the hegemony over whom it shares with the Amal Movement, and not, as many on the nationalist and Stalinist left picture it, the party of the poor and deprived.

Owing to its capitalist nature, Hizbollah has clearly entered a phase of bureaucratic bourgeois growth, particularly since the Israeli war on Lebanon in July 2006. This is evidenced by the way its cadre and members display their wealth and the privileges they enjoy such as social, economic, educational and health services. This will naturally cause a split between this arriviste bureaucracy and the large masses that Hizbollah relies on to assert its political legitimacy during elections or popular rallies. This is sometimes shown by the latent complaints of common Hizbollah supporters, who have expressed their resentment over that flaunting of wealth, and the bullying influence that members of this bureaucratic clique often exert on other people in the neighbourhoods where they operate.32

This divergence between the class nature of Hizbollah’s supporters—and
part of its membership—and its cadre, particularly at mid and senior level, is the main contradiction that Hizbollah will face in the current and future periods. This is indicated by the fact that Hizbollah is increasingly providing a Jihadi religious cover for their policies, by building mosques, depicting their intervention in Syria as a religious duty, or through the provocative sectarian slogan “Zeynab shall not be captured twice”.33 Hizbollah’s increased use of religious messages compared to previous years indicates the necessity for them to contain their base, through an ideological and religious discipline that is bound to become more and more necessary in a context of class crisis, on a local and regional scale. Perhaps—although we cannot be certain in this case—the latest Al-Manar affair (the Hizbollah TV station had apologised to the Bahraini government for its coverage of the revolution there, after which Hizbollah sacked the TV station’s director) can be seen as an indicator of the influence of that class crisis on the party’s bureaucratic discipline; it has shown a contradiction between the party’s political and media apparatus.

The nationalist and Stalinist left do not grasp the fact that the conditions that gave birth to revolutions in the region are the same conditions that govern the resistance to occupation and imperialism. The continuation and success of that resistance are not only dependent on the degree of enthusiasm about arms; it is also necessary to see if the arms-bearing side can escape the balance of interests that controls those arms and makes them available, and if it will escape, with its bourgeois alignment, from the ongoing implosions in the class structures of regional and Arab societies.
 

It's more likely Assad was winging it but Russian complicity here isn't impossible. One thing to understand is the Western taboo on CW doesn't really exist in the wider Middle East. Several ME states developed capabilities. The most notable instance of use is by Saddam against the Iranians perhaps with a resulting 150K casualties. Something he was never brought to account for. There are other instances of states using CW especially in Counter Insurgency operations.

The Russians made quite a lot of use of CW in Afghanistan though pounding civilians with artillery was much more common. In Chechnya they made extensive illegal use of incendiary weapons against civilians. Such things are very suitable for state terror operations. That's very much the operating philosophy of the Russian style of COIN and even more so of the Syrian Baath. It's not like there are many real scruples here. The Russian army has a doctrine of rapid resort to tactical nukes by battlefield commanders that's fully on display in training exercises.

It may have been felt with the bulk of Assad's CW arsenal disposed of and the tough talking refugee hating Trump in power the R+6 could maybe get away with occasional battlefield uses for psychological effect despite Assad have signed up to a treaty banning then. The regime had got away with repeated use of (not banned) chlorine in mass casualty attacks. They may not have expected a close to hysterical reaction in Tel Aviv for about a day before the Israelis decided it was probably only a small residual threat.
 

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The United States has been conducting limited strikes against al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Idlib, now called Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which has a significant presence on the ground. Meanwhile, however, the administration has also cut off all aid to moderate groups fighting in Idlib, according to Hijab, placing them at a disadvantage as they struggle to maintain credibility among the civilian population.

Aid groups warn that up to 1.5 million civilians could face a humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib if the Assad regime begins bombarding the province on a large scale, causing a huge flow of refugees into Turkey and Europe and resulting in devastation and suffering on a scale many times greater than what was seen during last year’s siege of Aleppo.

“An Assad regime campaign in Idlib is inevitable,” said Charles Lister, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “When exactly it will happen we don’t know, but the U.S. needs to be prepared for that.”

Stretched thin after six years of war, the Syrian army cannot take Idlib through conventional means. That’s why Assad is using weapons of terror, such as nerve gas, to break the will of the civilians before the battle there begins in earnest. When the ground war erupts, a thick stew of Shiite militias, Hezbollah fighters, Afghan mercenaries and Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers, all covered by Russian air power, will be ready to take on the regime’s adversaries.

Despite the risks and challenges, the best option for the United States is to reengage with those rebel groups on the ground that are most closely aligned with U.S. objectives and give them the money, arms and training necessary to defend Syrian civilians from the onslaught to come, said former State Department Syria official Frederic Hof, now at the Atlantic Council.

“There are units on the ground with which we have had relationships for years,” he said. “These units are fighting a three-way battle right now, against the regime, al-Qaeda and ISIS. They need our support.”
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Piece rather ignores AQ hasn't just a "significant presence on the ground" but leads a Salafist coalition (HTS) that controls a large part of Idlib including Idlib City. That may be a reason to continue to support some rebel groups even if those are not particularly moderate. However as with the Jordanians in the South that may be more a way of containing a dangerous AQ coup that's occurred within the Northern revolt since Idlib fell and may still spread further than doing anything about Assad. A revolt this broken can only deny Assad complete victory it's never going to replace him in Damascus.

Heller points out in this thread giving them MANPADs in this situation to shoot down R+6 air by proxy is nothing short of insane. He sees the main group left the Ankara backed Ahar al Sham as an awkward US partner. They are not really willing to get into a suicidal war with the ideologically similar AQ. Team Trump has been flirting with rating the MB as a terrorist organisation. How does such an administration reconcile with folk that rather like the Taliban as a model of governance? They seem to be managing to stomaching Apoism so who knows. Heller thinks it would be best to prepare for a humanitarian disaster in Idlib and big refugee flows that the Turks won't be able to cope with.

I'm not sure if Assad realistically has the resources to do more than squeeze and contain Idlib. The recent events there follow the SAA running away from a big HTS offensive above Hama. As IS falls back the R+6 is stretched thin securing strategic assets like Aleppo's water supply and reaching out for hydro-carbons in the Homs desert. Assad seems to realise that he's too weak as yet to take back all the country quickly but is pulled back and forth by commitments to displaced loyalists.

The Turks to some extent have directed their rebels away from Assad towards a fight with the PKK and IS. This clearly isn't what the rebels that aren't aligned with AQ want to do but stopping fighting Assad may be the only way that they don't end up feeding the civilians they live amongst into the R+6 meat grinder. Trouble is the just cause of fighting Assad then may end up belonging to AQ and widening their base.
 
This story was floating around earlier today but it was being touted by a times reporter who I surmised was trying to promote their article (particularly with the follow-up retweet of some guy saying about the pilot dying in an IED attack but offering zero evidence). But now we have Lister repeating it. Still 'allegedly' though



 
This story was floating around earlier today but it was being touted by a times reporter who I surmised was trying to promote their article (particularly with the follow-up retweet of some guy saying about the pilot dying in an IED attack but offering zero evidence). But now we have Lister repeating it. Still 'allegedly' though





Looks like he knew what was coming.
A "general" flying bombing missions? Curioser and curioser.
 
Looks like he knew what was coming.
A "general" flying bombing missions? Curioser and curioser.

This is Syria where rank inflation was rife in peacetime, allah knows what it's like now. My father in law was a full colonel when he was in charge of a wireless hut where the weapons under his authority were a signal pistol (to signal the arrival of the Israeli army in the likely event his wireless didn't work) and a bag of sunflower seeds (to keep him alive until the Israeli army arrived to kill him).
 
On POMEPS The Politics of Militant Group Survival: A Conversation with Ora Szekely

A podcast with the author talking about her book. Looks at a number of groups.

Notes HA started off as a rather inept group often regarded by locals as Iranian stooges and known for blowing up shops that sold alcohol. However became a much more subtle group that was a reliable provider of services branding itself as a less obviously sectarian defender of Lebanon.

On the PLO she point out their excellent handling international relations but woeful grasp of local politics. Hated at times both in Jordan and Lebanon to an extent were the locals in the latter were delighted when the Israelis arrived to duff Yasser's knuckle draggers up. Talks about PLO commanders regretfully confessing they did really dumb things like taking the tank to buy fags in a local shop and chewing up the roads in the process.

How groups sometimes become captives of their sponsors with differing agendas. Hamas very strangely ending up as a Syrian client. A state renowned for battering very similar MB groups. Then Hamas's quickly flipping to Morsi in the Arab Spring. Not actually a shrewd move in retrospect. An aspect that strikes me here is Hamas retaining some relations with HA despite their part in the Syrian war.

IS with the Caliphates almost non-existent inter-state relations. Glossy internet appeal to frustrated foreign teenagers but pretty woeful entirely coercion based domestic politics in Syria itself. This brief interview perhaps misses IS's handling of tribal relations which while brutal often displays a great deal of understanding of intra-tribal dynamics. She also didn't mention AQ's more stealthy ways showing great profits currently in Idlib as an obvious contrast. Another interesting comparative study would be the rise and fall of the rather efficient Jaish al Islam. The revolt's mostly been pretty lousy at domestic politics and displays a very high degree of capture by foreign sponsors.

And the success of the Syrian PKK in being pretty good at reaching out to different ethnicities in Syria and producing credible state services. While being very able at international PR and milking an ideologically incompatible US for support. I'd add their arms length handling of the weak but still dangerous Assad regime has also been deft. They've also kept their options open with Russia and Iran. A key to their success and perhaps longterm survival. It's a pity they managed to make enemies of other actors in and around Syria: the Turks, the KRG, some Syrian Kurdish parties, most Syrian rebels in fact most Syrians.
 
On War ON The Rocks SYRIA: A JOURNEY INTO THE UNKNOWN
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The apparent success — so far — of limited U.S. action is not a vindication of earlier half-baked appeals to topple the Assad regime. U.S. intervention in Syria that fundamentally threatened the Assad regime and its allies’ vital interests would inevitably invite a more vigorous and dangerous reaction, and would in any case be unlikely to achieve any positive result. Thursday’s military action should not be an occasion to unbox mothballed plans for regime change. Whether framed in familiar – and implausible – escalate-to-deescalate terms or proliferating in new, fantastical variations, these ideas are dangerous and unworkable. Even less ambitious goals like revitalized negotiations for a top-down political transition are so low-percentage that they’re not a worthwhile use of American time and effort.

Despite criticism that this strike is untethered from any big-picture political strategy, the United States should resist that linkage. It would confuse the strike’s message and inevitably create a logic for escalation when its political goals are inevitably not met. If military pressure is recast as a means of gaining leverage against the regime and its backers more broadly, the next step will logically require further action and greater force. Calibrating military action against the regime to produce conditions conducive to negotiations has consistently proven unworkable.

These strikes might succeed on their own limited, deterrent terms. And success is just that: success. However, some people might try to retroactively move the goalposts. In the immediate aftermath of these strikes, the Trump administration should continue to explain — repeatedly and in painstaking detail, if necessary — the specific objective of this military action to Americans and the other parties to Syria’s war. America acted Thursday for a reason. Everyone should be made to understand it.
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Points out the US really needs to get its act together and do some clear, precise messaging as the regime is actually often pretty dense and may misinterpret mixed signals.

Well you'd hope Team Trump would have got that by now but I do wonder if there's really much coherent thought about what's next in the Oval Office for the out of synch Haley and Tillerson to project out to the world. I get the impression both are winging it without much direction. There's a place for strategic ambiguity but chaotic reactivity without any real design isn't good.
 


Whether or not this is is a Freudian slip is probably besides the point. Syria is already destabilised and fragmented.
 
On War Is Boring Trump’s Cruise Missile Strike Could Be a Sign of Weakness
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Mohammed Alloush, a senior Syrian opposition negotiator, supported Trump’s strike but bluntly said in a tweet that: “One airbase is not enough. There are 26 airbases that target civilians.”

Tomahawks are quite useful when used as part of a combined arms attack on an adversary. They are also useful for attacking targets deep – such as air defense systems—in enemy territory, where the risk of manned aircraft getting shot down is too high. The Obama administration used Tomahawks early in the campaign against Islamic State in Syria to hit the shady Khorasan group.

Assad, however, could violate Trump’s declared red-line on chemicals by using, say, mobile artillery guns in the future instead of a fixed base of operations. Then, as was the case with Saddam in Iraqi Kurdistan in 1996, Assad could frequently challenge Trump’s red-line while remaining elusive to targeted tit-for-tat retaliatory air or cruise missile strikes.

When Russia condemned Friday’s strike it declared it is freezing the “deconfliction line” with the United States to avoid aerial clashes. This comes at a time when risks of clashes between the two are already a serious risk with this line in place. According to the Washington Post, U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighters are back to flying above “stack” formations, using their powerful radars to “keep track of incoming aircraft and direct other coalition planes to shift out of the way of incoming Russian aircraft.”

If Assad never uses chemical weapons again, then the air strikes might turn out to be a success. But without careful coordination with the Russians, the White House may find it harder to enforce its red-line against Assad. This, coupled with the aforementioned reports about aircraft continuing to operate from Shayrat, may actually indicate weakness on the part of the Trump administration rather than the intended projection of unequivocal resolve and strength.
My bold, not that unlikely, article compares this to Operation Desert Strike under Clinton.

If Assad started using less easily traceable mobile artillery to deliver nerve agents you could always hit the field command HQ involved. Or in fact any known HQ in proximity and disrupt the operation that the attack was intended to advance. The idea being to create some real disincentives for field commanders to request tactical CW use. Of course this would be an escalation that would kill SAA officers and might kill some Russian advisors. You'd have to decide if that's worth it.
 


Whether or not this is is a Freudian slip is probably besides the point. Syria is already destabilised and fragmented.


I wish people would stop quoting that tweeter 'Sarah Abdallah'. Look at what the account is doing, it's just an Assad promotion vehicle pushing alt/far right folk (Le Pen, PJ Watson etc) in support of that aim far as i can see. Sexy pic though.
 

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America can now lead the effort to bring some semblance of stability to Syria. Washington should recognize that peace is impossible with Mr. Assad still in power, but also that millions of Syrians—particularly the Christian and Alawite minorities—may feel endangered by the strongman’s departure. The aim should be to replace Mr. Assad’s regime with new governance arrangements that can provide assurance to these minorities while also ending the current government’s oppression of the country’s Sunni majority.

Fashioning such an outcome would require diplomacy of extraordinary creativity. But the U.S. starts with a distinct advantage. Unlike Iran and Russia, America has no interest in exercising control over or acquiring a military position in Syria. To the contrary, as long as the bleeding stops, the U.S. would be happiest to leave Syria to the Syrians. So how can Washington strengthen its diplomatic effort in Syria and at the same time weaken Iranian influence in Iraq?

First, the U.S. should use public diplomacy to highlight the responsibility of the Assad regime for the suffering of thousands of innocent Iraqis over the past 14 years. This effort should also explain, to the extent that evidence is available, Mr. Assad’s efforts to strengthen Islamic State. The dictator has tried to make his regime seem like the only alternative to domination by terrorists. He has done this by attacking Syrian moderates and freeing imprisoned extremists who went on to become ISIS leaders.
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Wolfie still howling at the moon! Good luck with this one. Most Iraqis don't just blame the US for the rise of IS they actually poll as believing the US is still an active supporter of the group.
 
I wish people would stop quoting that tweeter 'Sarah Abdallah'. Look at what the account is doing, it's just an Assad promotion vehicle pushing alt right folk (Le Pen, PJ Watson etc) in support of that aim far as i can see.
Yeah I kinda guessed she is, and it's not an endorsement by me posting it, there's another very similar one that I used to follow doing pretty much the same thing. I posted it because it's interesting how they'll grasp any little thing to expose what they consider to be some 'hidden agenda'. Never mind the facts already on the ground.
 

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The short answer is that their air defenses were meant to defend Russian forces, not Syrian assets, and probably not armed to take on a 60 cruise missile salvo anyway. The primary Russian fear was that a country like Turkey or someone else might hit concentrated Russian assets in Latakia. From their positions these air defenses probably had little to no chance of hitting cruise missiles meant for a different airbase, and the U.S. likely routed the strike package in such a way so as to make it impossible.

There is an often spotted S-400 system at Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia, together with Pantsir-S1 short range air defense and medium range point defense Buk systems (not many photos of the Buk but supposedly its there). The common depiction of the S-400s capabilities is also pretty inaccurate. For one, it does not have a 400km range missile (the 40N6). That long range missile has never been seen in operation, nor a new canister for it, which suggests it’s still not ready for prime time. So the actual maximum range is 250km, which still makes it a great system, but cuts down on the imaginary 400km firing ring. Furthermore the system is at the airbase, and there is a mountain range running north to south just east of Latakia, so naturally the radar is going to have a hard time seeing most of eastern Syria – and the Russians have admitted as much in their own press.
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“We are no longer talking about sanctions relief, [but how to] prevent new sanctions from being imposed,” Gvosdev said.

Assad’s actions have upended what was an important foreign policy priority for Putin — exploring the potential for cooperation with the United States on Syria and a possible rapprochement — and have seemingly taken sanctions relief off the table for discussion for now, and Russia will not forgive him, Kofman said.

“They are furious; it is very clear,” Kofman said, noting that there has been “no actual statement from Putin in support of Assad.”

“That is why I am saying he has signed his own political death warrant,” Kofman said of Assad. “They [the Russians] will never forgive him. They will wait. The time will come when Syria is stabilized, and they can actually have a change of power at the top. And then come for him.”
That may be wishful thinking but it does fit into a pattern of rebellious behaviour with Bashar. He's often acted to apparently bugger up Russian diplomacy. Bombing that aid convoy after the US hit Deir comes to mind. But who knows if in fact he just got the nod and gets to be the patsy while the Russians wring their helpless hands. That's how the Kremlin rolls as well.

Putin reportedly despises him personally but Bashar like his father before knows Russian policy in Syria collapses messily without the Assads. Putin did have a broader game in mind with Trump. You can rely too much on leaders being rational actors.
 

I'd not rule out that Putin could be a bit deluded about his chances of replacing Assad with a SCAF like junta. Russian leaders often badly misunderstand foreign politics and how the Syrian regime works is pretty opaque even for experts.

What I'm not seeing is any preparatory Russian information operations that actually suggest a concrete transition rather than talking about it as a vague future possibility. The Russians have done that more likely because otherwise what would be the point of all that gum flapping with Kerry or Tillerson if in fact they admit they have very little leverage in Damascus and Assad can go off reservation pretty much any time he wants to constrained mainly by resources. Which he does again and again.

To me it looks more like the slightly embarrassing sub-dom US-Israeli relationship where Bibi could slap the Obama Administration around with little fear of sanction to in fact be rewarded in the end with a massive aid package on top of the existing lavish US generosity. Putin has probably got more and more committed to Assad as he invested in Syria. If he intended to get rid of him Assad would be dead already.
 
It's perhaps a bit surprising the author felt the need to correct some of the weird ideas about the obviously highly reactionary HA.

I don't think it's that surprising, Hezbollah is well enough regarded by many who should know better.
 
Looks like he knew what was coming.
A "general" flying bombing missions? Curioser and curioser.
It's what Patton would have done god damn it.
This is Syria where rank inflation was rife in peacetime, allah knows what it's like now. My father in law was a full colonel when he was in charge of a wireless hut where the weapons under his authority were a signal pistol (to signal the arrival of the Israeli army in the likely event his wireless didn't work) and a bag of sunflower seeds (to keep him alive until the Israeli army arrived to kill him).

"Shoot dogs, you are only killing a full colonel, and his lifetime supply of sunflower seeds".

Re; Knotted's tussle with butchersapron above, concerning the sectarianisation (or alleged lack of same) of the regime. This shouldn't be considered outrageous at all: the region has more than one case of leaders that started out secular, but then turned to weaponised religion when the going got tough - Nimeiry in Sudan in the 1980s, and Saddam in Iraq after 1991.
 
I don't think it's that surprising, Hezbollah is well enough regarded by many who should know better.
Well that's mainly through ignorance and a blinkered attitude to anyone having a pop at Israel. HA are successful at what they do which is rather the point of that Podcast. Though HA supporting despotic Assad clan rule in Syria I would have thought would have caused some right-on reflection. It did cause a dramatic fall in their regional popularity. After all nothing the Israelis have ever done to Arabs compares with Assad's domestic predations.

Mind, if you are going to get picky about class struggle that's hardly what Salafist revolutionary groups like Jaish al Islam are mainly about either. JaI strongly resemble the HA model of governance in a lot of respects. They're pretty effective but actually appear even more sectarian than HA and less able to make wide alliances. They've fallen to fighting even within conservative Sunni Arab circles. Mainly about smuggling routes. Even much more moderate Islamists are a very awkward fit with the one dimensional Marxist views that used to fairly common in the ME back in the 70s.

Unless the erratic Trump does something far more dramatic AQ may well soon be the main standard bearer of the doomed anti-Assad cause in Idlib. With HA propping Bashar up and the PKK acting as a powerbroker for him in Eastern Syria. I long ago stopped picking white hats in the ME beyond hoping the Iraqis can get their shit together.
 
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Re; Knotted's tussle with butchersapron above, concerning the sectarianisation (or alleged lack of same) of the regime. This shouldn't be considered outrageous at all: the region has more than one case of leaders that started out secular, but then turned to weaponised religion when the going got tough - Nimeiry in Sudan in the 1980s, and Saddam in Iraq after 1991.
You could say the same about the Syrian Baath with the Assad's cultivating the Mosque and permitting a high degree of Saudi ulema influence in some places. I think it was more a regional trend towards conservative Islam than anything.
 
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