And next, Syria?

[purenarcotic]

Apologies if this is a stupid question but if you bomb a chemical facilities plant do you not release all those chemicals into the local environment?

 

[Raheem]

Apologies if this is a stupid question but if you bomb a chemical facilities plant do you not release all those chemicals into the local environment?

Not a stupid question. Iirc from commentary at the time of the last airstrikes, the answer is yes, but not usually in a way that mimics a chemical attack. You get land contamination and stuff.

 

[2hats]

Apologies if this is a stupid question but if you bomb a chemical facilities plant do you not release all those chemicals into the local environment?

Yes, they get splashed around. Not so much of the end product. Those would be in the storage facilities.

 

[2hats]

MoD reporting that four Tornado GR4's attacked a Syrian base with Storm Shadow missiles. All the aircraft returned safely.

Short flight for the RAF. FAF and USAF required tankers - up to 13 of them in the air at any one time over the Med last night.

e2a: Global Hawk and Rivet Joint running tracks off the Lebanese coast both pre and post attack (they got out of the way of the incoming strike packages) gathering SIGINT/ELINT/IMINT, identifying air defence beforehand, battle damage assessment afterwards.

 

[Pickman's model]

Apologies if this is a stupid question but if you bomb a chemical facilities plant do you not release all those chemicals into the local environment?

further to raheem's post it'd be like a great food fight in a kitchen with cake ingredients. you'd get a bloody big mess but you wouldn't have bits of your actual cake lying around at the end of it. it's the same with the ingredients for chemical weapons, they'd be splashed round the place but wouldn't form any chemical weapons as the combination would have to take place under specific conditions of e.g. temperature, quantities, pressure etc.

 

[Knotted]

I remember back in 2003 the Worker Communist Party of Iraq theorised about the situation they were in a as a "dark scenario". The scenario being that the state had been destroyed and that there were no revolutionary forces to champion and that this was a radically different scenario to scenarios classically faced by socialist revolutionaries. They ended this analysis on an upbeat note - basically carry on regardless what they always do. I think it is a permanent blind spot for the left - even when you see a scenario so bleak there is no way forward you end denying it and ploughing on regardless.

The situation in Syria at present is not particularly similar to that of Iraq in 2003. It's its own dark scenario. The horror of either the regime or the armed opposition being victorious is hard to even contemplate and yet these are only the only outcomes available other than prolonged war followed by either the victory of the regime or the armed opposition. As tempting as it is to find a lesser evil to rally behind and of course to give a makeover to, or to simply oppose your own government's bombing (plough on as you would normally), maybe some fresh thinking would be idea. That said I have no idea what this fresh thinking would be. All I can offer to Syrian revolutionaries (not the Sunni sectarians) is to keep your heads down and to quietly organise relief at a community level.

Maybe we could hope against hope that in the shattered country the forces that revolted in 2011 can somehow organise and revive but my guess is that people are too busy trying to survive. Even the silver lining of a possible independent Kurdish state is rapidly vanishing. It is now clear that the regime is going to stay and may even be able to reassert itself over the whole country and the one and only positive is that the armed revolt is going to be defeated. It's now not a realistic option. The left lining up with Al Qaeda now no longer even makes military sense. And likewise with those who want to find a lesser evil in Assad - the regime is going to make it clear it is no lesser evil. Perhaps minds will be focused.

 

[butchersapron]

further to raheem's post it'd be like a great food fight in a kitchen with cake ingredients. you'd get a bloody big mess but you wouldn't have bits of your actual cake lying around at the end of it. it's the same with the ingredients for chemical weapons, they'd be splashed round the place but wouldn't form any chemical weapons as the combination would have to take place under specific conditions of e.g. temperature, quantities, pressure etc.

Which is a good reason why the russian and regime explanation for the kahn sheikoun attack in march 2017 were nonsense. The very idea that they hit a rebel factory and the chemicals they were cooking up to use against the regime just formed sarin spontaneously as a result.

 

[butchersapron]

I remember back in 2003 the Worker Communist Party of Iraq theorised about the situation they were in a as a "dark scenario". The scenario being that the state had been destroyed and that there were no revolutionary forces to champion and that this was a radically different scenario to scenarios classically faced by socialist revolutionaries. They ended this analysis on an upbeat note - basically carry on regardless what they always do. I think it is a permanent blind spot for the left - even when you see a scenario so bleak there is no way forward you end denying it and ploughing on regardless.

The situation in Syria at present is not particularly similar to that of Iraq in 2003. It's its own dark scenario. The horror of either the regime or the armed opposition being victorious is hard to even contemplate and yet these are only the only outcomes available other than prolonged war followed by either the victory of the regime or the armed opposition. As tempting as it is to find a lesser evil to rally behind and of course to give a makeover to, or to simply oppose your own government's bombing (plough on as you would normally), maybe some fresh thinking would be idea. That said I have no idea what this fresh thinking would be. All I can offer to Syrian revolutionaries (not the Sunni sectarians) is to keep your heads down and to quietly organise relief at a community level.

Maybe we could hope against hope that in the shattered country the forces that revolted in 2011 can somehow organise and revive but my guess is that people are too busy trying to survive. Even the silver lining of a possible independent Kurdish state is rapidly vanishing. It is now clear that the regime is going to stay and may even be able to reassert itself over the whole country and the one and only positive is that the armed revolt is going to be defeated. It's now not a realistic option. The left lining up with Al Qaeda now no longer even makes military sense. And likewise with those who want to find a lesser evil in Assad - the regime is going to make it clear it is no lesser evil. Perhaps minds will be focused.

This is what's coming: A few days ago, several hundred people in Kafr Batna were filmed demonstrating, chanting “We do not want Freedom anymore!”

 

[purenarcotic]

Thanks all, science was never my strong point.

 

[Knotted]

Yep grim. In 2011 the fear of the regime had been broken - people openly criticised it.

 

[T & P]

Do we know if the surface-to-air missile defences deployed by the Syrians last night were their own Soviet-era systems, or the much talked about S-400 Russian kit?

It is no secret that Russia has been combat testing all kinds of hardware in Syria. Apparently they're trying to sell the allegedly state of the art S-400 to various nations, so a lot would ride on their performance against modern Western weapons.

 

[butchersapron]

Great honest piece from Leila Al Shami:

The ‘anti-imperialism’ of idiots

This ‘anti-imperialism’ of idiots is one which equates imperialism with the actions of the US alone. They seem unaware that the US has been bombing Syria since 2014. In its campaign to liberate Raqqa from Daesh all international norms of war and considerations of proportionality were abandoned. Over 1,000 civilians were killed and the UN estimates that 80 per cent of the city is now uninhabitable. There were no protests organized by leading ‘anti-war’ organizations against this intervention, no calls to ensure that civilians and civilian infrastructure were protected. Instead they adopted the ‘War on Terror’ discourse, once the preserve of neo-cons, now promulgated by the regime, that all opposition to Assad are jihadi terrorists. They turned a blind eye to Assad filling his gulag with thousands of secular, peaceful, pro-democracy demonstrators for death by torture, whilst releasing militant-Islamists from prison. Similarly, the continuing protests held in liberated areas in opposition to extremist and authoritarian groups such as Daesh, Nusra and Ahrar Al Sham have been ignored. Syrians are not seen as possessing the sophistication to hold a diverse range of views. Civil society activists (including many amazing women), citizen journalists, humanitarian workers are irrelevant. The entire opposition is reduced to its most authoritarian elements or seen as mere conduits for foreign interests.

I no longer have an answer. I’ve consistently opposed all foreign military intervention in Syria, supported Syrian led process to rid their country of a tyrant and international processes grounded in efforts to protect civilians and human rights and ensure accountability for all actors responsible for war-crimes. A negotiated settlement is the only way to end this war – and still seems as distant as ever. Assad (and his backers) are determined to thwart any process, pursue a total military victory and crush any remaining democratic alternative. Hundreds of Syrians are being killed every week in the most barbaric ways imaginable. Extremist groups and ideologies are thriving in the chaos wrought by the state. Civilians continue to flee in their thousands as legal processes – such as Law No.10 – are implemented to ensure they will never return to their homes. The international system itself is collapsing under the weight of its own impotence. The words ‘Never Again’ ring hollow. There’s no major people’s movement which stands in solidarity with the victims. They are instead slandered, their suffering is mocked or denied, and their voices either absent from discussions or questioned by people far away, who know nothing of Syria, revolution or war, and who arrogantly believe they know what is best. It is this desperate situation which causes many Syrians to welcome the US, UK and France’s action and who now see foreign intervention as their only hope, despite the risks they know it entails.

 

[kebabking]

Do we know if the surface-to-air missile defences deployed by the Syrians last night were their own Soviet-era systems, or the much talked about S-400 Russian kit?

It is no secret that Russia has been combat testing all kinds of hardware in Syria. Apparently they're trying to sell the allegedly state of the art S-400 to various nations, so a lot would ride on their performance against modern Western weapons.

i'd put very good money on Russia not providing the most capable versions of its equipment to the Syrian Government - there are two reasons for that: 1. Russia has a long established policy of providing its client states with 'monkey models' because it knows that to to give its high end systems to its often less than entirely reliable partners in the ME is to give them to the Israelis, which is the same as just posting them to the DIA in Washington. 2. is that, particularly in the Syrian case, Russia wants an utterly compliant Assad, so they give him the less capable version, and rock up with the more capable version themselves to play the saviour.

they probably also want exclusive access and contol of the radar feeds so that they can see what int they can generate about US aircraft capabilities - they don't want Assad doing a side deal with the Chinese because that would a) undermine Assads' dependance on Russia, and b) they don't want to help China's stealth or radar and SAM programmes any more than they can help.

in PR tems, Russia will take the view that if a SAM system shoots down a cruise missile it was a Russian SAM, if it misses it was a Syrian one.

 

[2hats]

Range of claims…

US/FR/UK:
105 stand off missiles (TLAM, Storm Shadow, Scapel, JASSM)
3 targets
no known intercepts

Russia:
103 cruise missiles, unknown numbers of bombs and air-surface missiles
8 targets
71 intercepts by Syrian AD

Syria:
110 cruise missiles
13 intercepts by Syrian AD

The Syrian AD doesn’t appear to have SA-21/S-400 (there are Russian S-400 installations in the country) but much older SA-3 (S-125), SA-5 (S-200) and SA-6 (Kub), with some slightly more recent SA-17 (Buk), many of which were reported to have been fired too late (which, if true, would result in local collateral damage as they ended up in uncontrolled ballistic flight). The DoD briefing clearly stated that Russian S-400 AD radar installations were measured as active but did not engage. Leaves one wondering, did they decide to avoid escalation, or is there a level at which the S-400 command/control/firing system saturates and it’d be a bit embarrassing and awkward for sales to demonstrate this publicly.

 

[agricola]

Range of claims…

US/FR/UK:
105 stand off missiles (TLAM, Storm Shadow, Scapel, JASSM)
3 targets
no known intercepts

Russia:
103 cruise missiles, unknown numbers of bombs and air-surface missiles
8 targets
71 intercepts by Syrian AD

Syria:
110 cruise missiles
13 intercepts by Syrian AD

The Syrian AD doesn’t appear to have S-400 (there are Russian S-400 installations in the country) but much older SA-3 (S-125), SA-5 (S-200) and SA-6 (Kub), with some slightly more recent SA-17 (Buk), many of which were reported to have been fired too late (which, if true, would result in local collateral damage as they ended up in uncontrolled ballistic flight). The DoD briefing clearly stated that Russian S-400 AD radar installations were measured as active but did not engage. Leaves one wondering, did they decide to avoid escalation, or is there a level at which the S-400 command/control/firing system saturates and it’d be a bit embarrassing and awkward for sales to demonstrate this publicly.

TBH its hard to see why they would reveal what it can actually do, given the way this raid seems to have been negotiated in advance.

 

[mauvais]

Range of claims…

US/FR/UK:
105 stand off missiles (TLAM, Storm Shadow, Scapel, JASSM)

Scalpel is a guided bomb. I think you mean SCALP EG which is just Storm Shadow renamed for the French.

AFAIK noone has ever demonstrated a consistent ability to defend against cruise missiles. Regardless I doubt the Russians really want to try, for a variety of reasons.

 

[2hats]

Sky News Arabia reporting, in the last few minutes, a huge explosion in one of the largest military storage facilities near southern Aleppo (Jabal Azzan Iranian base?).

Scalpel is a guided bomb. I think you mean SCALP EG which is just Storm Shadow renamed for the French.

I think I do but my autocorrect didn’t.

 

[Geri]

Robin Yassin-Kassab is reporting news of "large explosions at the Iranian occupation base at Jabal Azzan, Aleppo countryside" and reports of " dead Iranian, Afghan and Lebanese officers."

Speculation as to whether this is the Israeli round.

Edit - a Syrian friend is saying it was a British strike.

 

[butchersapron]

Big stuff tonight. Iran getting told to back off.

 

[agricola]

Robin Yassin-Kassab is reporting news of "large explosions at the Iranian occupation base at Jabal Azzan, Aleppo countryside" and reports of " dead Iranian, Afghan and Lebanese officers."

Speculation as to whether this is the Israeli round.

Edit - a Syrian friend is saying it was a British strike.

Much more likely to be the former rather than the latter, unless this is the first bit of an absolutely huge raid.

 

[friedaweed]

In with the old

and out with the new.

 

[Geri]

Much more likely to be the former rather than the latter, unless this is the first bit of an absolutely huge raid.

Yes, he has revised his opinion now.

 

[agricola]

Yes, he has revised his opinion now.

various other strikes reported around Deir ez-Zor and Quneitra as well... according to twitter

 

[StigoftheDig]

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Their latest:

Syrian War in year 7: The age of cyber warfare

In this article, we will expand on 3 main stands adopted by people in relation to the Syrian war.

1. The pro-Assad anti-U.S imperialism Stand
2. The Silent Stand
3. The Solidarity Stand

I wish I didn't watch the second video in that link... How anyone can genuinely believe that's fake is beyond comprehension.

 

[coley]

Indeed so.

As in to little to late!

 

[coley]

I suspect neither Russia or USA wants to shoot each others stuff.

Or, either Russia doesn't want to demonstrate its 'capabilities' or its capabilities are Shyte....?

 

[kebabking]

Or, either Russia doesn't want to demonstrate its 'capabilities' or its capabilities are Shyte....?

Probably both - if Russia and the US do go to actual conflict over Syria then there are risks of that conflict spiralling out of control. Not big risks IMO, but they do exist.

Vlad the Invader also knows that his much vaunted Air Defence Systems were to get a very public shoeing by the USAF, then 20 years of playing the hard man on a big bear would go down the drain in one night. No one is going to put their eggs in a Russian basket if it gets demonstrated that the US can put it's hand in that basket as and when it likes...

 

[donkyboy]

interesting that the s-300 and s-400 have never been tested conflict yet the Patriot and Israel's Dome have. Makes one wonder how good this Russian missile defence system really is.

 

[kebabking]

..Makes one wonder how good this Russian missile defence system really is.

Probably somewhere between 'better than previous systems', and 'not nearly as good as the sales brochures and internet trolls say it is'.

To be strictly fair to the sales brochures, no SAM system produced by anyone in history has entirely lived up to its hype, but to add to which the history of Russian supplied SAM systems is replete with claims of an impenetrable belt of air defences which will prove lethal to all attackers - which western air forces then fly through, to the ever less convincing astonishment of its owners.

We - NATO - think that S400 is a step-change in capability. Computing tech has moved on exponentially since the old Soviet systems were being produced which has massively increased missile and radar capacity - Russian systems, for all the problems that Russia has in producing a product that matches the science of its designers, has dramatically moved on. But so has ours, and we were further ahead...