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And next, Syria?

On CMEC What’s Next in Idlib?

Heller on Idlib. He describes a stew of groups but with HTS increasingly dominant. He thinks it would hard for the regime to take bumpy Idlib. Waiting for the "international community" to do it for them. Thinks AQ would go to guerrilla warfare. Current inter-opposition dust up often over service provision e.g. who keeps the lights on.
 
I thought this was a very good article, chuckled heartily while reading it . One could almost swear it was describing the coterie of twats on this thread this past years . Then you realise they're just cardboard cut outs .
Eerily accurate I thought . Do you lot get your insults and screeching training from the same training manual or something ? It's uncanny . :D:D

Controlling the Narrative on Syria | MR Online
 
CrabbedOne said:
On CMEC What’s Next in Idlib?

Heller on Idlib. He describes a stew of groups but with HTS increasingly dominant. He thinks it would hard for the regime to take bumpy Idlib. Waiting for the "international community" to do it for them. Thinks AQ would go to guerrilla warfare. Current inter-opposition dust up often over service provision e.g. who keeps the lights on.
Click to expand...

I think it's a poor piece . Idlib at the moment is very low down the Syrian governments list of priorities . The relief of Deir Ezzor..besieged for years by IS..is at the top of the agenda . And seemingly imminent ,in the coming weeks possibly . That'll be a massive victory , a seemingly impossible task previously . Idlib has long been a handy dumping ground for various factions who opted for the green bus option . A good place to dump them and then sit back with satisfaction watching the head choppers inevitably fight among themselves . Which they've done yet again , this time with serious gusto . Disturbing them while they're busy fighting each other would be pretty silly . Even their respective foreign backers..chiefly Qatar and Saudi... are fighting among themselves. Meanwhile Trump has cancelled the CIAs funding and arming of various fuckwits too . Idlb can wait .
The main reason these guys are killing each other is because they're fanatical fuckwits . it's what they do . They are deeply intolerant madmen running about with guns . They've done this everywhere . They are shooting lumps out of each other wherever they are in Syria, not just idlib . They are enraged at the sight of ungodly flags and stuff like that . It's not about service provision .

What's highly likely to happen is that at some point in the near future the Idlib fanatics will launch another big offensive , once they've regrouped from slaughtering each other yet again . Just like they did at Allepo , which resulted in them getting their asses handed to them by the SAA . They're still recovering from their massive losses in trained fighters and armour there . It was a major catastrophe for them in not just losing Allepo but having their supposed reinforcements annihilated .
they have to try something big soon while the SAA are concentrating on Deir. To divert them from acheiving that massive victory against IS and a morale boost of epic proportions accross Syria .If that happens there'll be a massive response to Idlibs assault . They'll lose even more equipment and men . And then territory, and after that the jig will soon be up for them .
Daeshs jig is nearly up . Idlibs foreign backers are either at each others throats or withdrawing support altogether . AQ becoming the dominant player in Idlib assures its eventual destruction as a jihadi bastion . Containing them there until the day of reckoning comes is the perfectly sensible strategy . Assad has a noose around them . The time to tighten it isn't just at the minute, but that day will come soon enough .
 
CrabbedOne said:
On CMEC What’s Next in Idlib?

Heller on Idlib. He describes a stew of groups but with HTS increasingly dominant. He thinks it would hard for the regime to take bumpy Idlib. Waiting for the "international community" to do it for them. Thinks AQ would go to guerrilla warfare. Current inter-opposition dust up often over service provision e.g. who keeps the lights on.
Click to expand...

Just a few days earlier you posted this And next, Syria?
From the same writer claiming an all out government assault on Idlib was imminent . And now it's the total reverse . Do you even read what you post ?
 
CrabbedOne said:
On Bloomberg This Is What Putin Wants From His Syria Deal With Trump
What a carve up.

I think Trump's is being played. It may not be what the Russian want but this is going to end up with HA and the Iranians owning a lot of key Syrian real estate including that up by the Israeli border with supply routes that stretch all the way back to Iran. They can deploy a dozen brigades of Shia militia in Syria with deep reserves and have a shit load of rocket artillery. Some "peacekeeping" force that is. The world's largest revolutionary Jihadist army is no match for them but no wonder the Israelis are nervous. Bashar having dodged one bullet is probably shitting himself about this new army of occupation as he never wanted real trouble with the IDF. Plus he has to pay the buggers off with a grand fire sale of state assets. With the Iranians it's mostly real estate but now the Russian oil majors have got scent of Syria's Eastern hydro-carbons the real looting can start. It's pure vulture capitalism really. Like when the mafia move in on a nice family business to asset strip it.
Click to expand...

What a load of old bollocks . The western states proxies have been looting Syria dry for years now . Everything from ancient artefacts to entire factories have been systematically looted , on a literally industrial scale .I posted a video here a while back of hundreds of Aleppo factories being dismantled and taken away on trucks to Turkey . Syrias industrial heartland systematically looted to the tune of billions by the rebels and their backers . On top of that it's the rebels who've been looting Syrias oil and gas..selling it direct to Erdogans family . Billions upon billions systematically stolen for years . A massive theft only brought to a stop when Russia intervened and did this . Bringing it to world attention by pretty spectacular means . Yanks , Brits etc had known all along of course and said nothing .

WATCH: Russian fighter jets smash ISIS oil tankers after spotting 12,000 at Turkish border

Syrians oil and gas wells have been largely destroyed by retreating rebels and US bombing . They need to be secured and rebuilt . That's going to cost an absolute fortune otherwise there'll be no revenue from them . How do you suggest the Syrian government pay for all this, bearing in mind they're also under crippling economic sanctions as well as being wracked by years of war ? With foot rubs ? Lemonade stands ? They have every right to use state assets in this manner . The Syrian people desperately need that revenue and energy stream back online if they're to rebuild .
And the Russians don't need to steal anyone else's oil either . They've already got more oil and gas than they know what to do with . In a nice peaceful country that isn't infested with head chopping bastards . it's hardly a risk free investment .

You're flooding the thread with this tired rubbish incessantly . Only now when syria ousts the jihadis do you start talking about mafia and looting, completely ignoring the behemoth of theft thats been the hallmark of the last 6 years . How do you suggest the Syrians actually go about paying for both the security of and rebuilding of their hydro carbon assets ? What alternative other than a share of the revenue to companies willing to take the very substantial risk is there ? This is a perfectly sensible move, there's no other options . Unless you can suggest an alternative .

Which you can't and won't .
 
CrabbedOne said:
From The World Bank THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA

From Key Findings:
Based on recent conflicts the mean time a civil war lasts is about a decade. A decade is an optimistic estimate for this one really cooling down. So a loss of 13 years of GDP and considerable additional population flight. They often end messily sowing the potential for further conflict. This won't be stable. The Turks will have at the PKK. Israel will clash with the Iranian occupation of Syria. Some Rebels will be sustained as mercenary forces in buffer zones. Takfiri will persist and fight an insurgent war. The immovable Assad will have his family's estates back even if it takes decades but the longer it last the poorer his realm will be.

From the conclusion:
In addition to all this damage Assad is selling off large chunks of the future means of production to his allies on fire sale terms. It was Assad or we burn the country and that they did. Now how many who have profited from the war will actually stay to live amongst the ruins? They make a desert and call it peace.
Click to expand...


This is making a desert . This is the mafia moving in .

Aleppo's businessmen blame Turks for damaged factories, looted equipment
 
Fisk on the frontlines , one of the very very few western journalists to even bother reporting from Syria .



There he's at Qalamoun . The mountain ranges around lebanons Arsal are finally being cleared , Al Q and affiliates fleeing and surrendering . The Lebanese army and thousands of Hezbollah fighters have gone in on the Lebanese side of the border while the SAA have gone in on the Syrian side. With the Syrian air force providing top cover for both . Al q have been thoroughly routed from their stronghold. Another brilliant win and another step forward to rebuilding Syria .

And a good piece by Fisk here on one of the people he met regularly on the front line against Daesh .

The Syrian army were standing up to Isis long before the Americans ever fired a missile

Mentions the 40,000 plus dead in the retaking of Mosul . Barely a peep from the western media . Too busy fawning over wee Bana probably .
 
One of the few journalist prepared to to take the coin. They killed the others and made it impossible to report. So few took the coin though.
Assad was building up ISIS with the US before you ever heard of them. The rendition programs that they allowed and the the jihadis they released in order to say the opposition is jihadis - support us in our killing of these people demanding democracy.
 
Casually Red said:
Fisk on the frontlines , one of the very very few western journalists to even bother reporting from Syria .



There he's at Qalamoun . The mountain ranges around lebanons Arsal are finally being cleared , Al Q and affiliates fleeing and surrendering . The Lebanese army and thousands of Hezbollah fighters have gone in on the Lebanese side of the border while the SAA have gone in on the Syrian side. With the Syrian air force providing top cover for both . Al q have been thoroughly routed from their stronghold. Another brilliant win and another step forward to rebuilding Syria .

And a good piece by Fisk here on one of the people he met regularly on the front line against Daesh .

The Syrian army were standing up to Isis long before the Americans ever fired a missile

Mentions the 40,000 plus dead in the retaking of Mosul . Barely a peep from the western media . Too busy fawning over wee Bana probably .
Click to expand...

Military expert. Knows all the areas.

Probably part of the pogroms in lebanon.
 
The regime's victory in idlib in giving HTS the upper hand is prob a slow death blow unless the southern front can get some work going. The regime wanted ISIS and AL-qaedea to win. Their plan is alnost final in idlib.
 
On From Chechnya To Syria A Russian-Speaking Mom Writes About Educating Her Kids in Idlib:
There was a lot of interest in the piece I translated here, about a North Caucasian woman’s view of making hijra to Syria along with her husband and others. So I thought I would also do a quick translation of the below piece, which was also written by a Russian-speaking woman in Syria, in which she talks about the issue of educating her children. A few points:

— The woman has nothing to do with Islamic State and my discussion below doesn’t either. I’m talking here about people who join or are affiliated with groups other than IS and also those who are independent and not part of any group/jamaat (yes they exist). These groups either get overlooked completely or reporting on them is limited to sometimes ridiculous distortions based on a few social media posts.

–When we write about jihad as a concept in general and in particular about how it relates to foreign fighters in Syria, usually we focus on military aspects. The jamaat is an important element of Russian-speaking social structure in Syria but it is not the only social structure. Many people came to Syria with families or have started families since coming to Syria. Women and children don’t live in military bases even if their husbands are part of a jamaat. Not everyone is part of a jamaat and not everyone came to Syria to fight (at least one Russian-speaker is working as a doctor in Idlib for example). So this piece offers a glimpse into one aspect of the lives of Russian-speaking Muslims in Syria beyond the “military.”
...
Click to expand...
A glimpse of the practicalities of a mother emigrating into a war zone.
 
Torture and Sexual Violence Against Women in Assad’s Detention Centres - A 36 page report by Syrian NGO 'Lawyers and Doctors for Human Rights'

http://ldhrights.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Voices-from-the-Dark.pdf

8 cases covered.

“Zahira”: Five months in detention, which started with 15 days of relentless brutal sexual violence including gang rape for which she needed four months of reparative surgeries and treatment.
Click to expand...

“Amina”: detained for three months whilst pregnant, she saw the dead bodies of men get dragged around by jailers and men hanging from the walls, screaming.
Click to expand...

“Rima”: Detained for three months, she was beaten and kicked and threatened with rape and the rape of her daughter.
Click to expand...

«Manar»: A mother of five, detained at the border and terrorized by the torture of others at the Palestine Branch.
Click to expand...

“Hayah”: held in solitary connement for 22 days, she was sexually assaulted in her cell, her hijab forcibly removed and she was brutally beaten during interrogations.
Click to expand...

«Munira»: Detained for eight days, she was beaten, threatened with rape and forced to watch naked men be electrocuted and beaten.
Click to expand...

«Ayda»: Shortly after her arrest, she was brutally raped, then endured three months of inhuman torture, including one month interred in a pitch black solitary confinement cell with a dead body, where she tried to commit suicide.
Click to expand...

«Janan»: 11 months detained, she was subjected to repeated falanga and confined to a dark insect-infested cell for 5 months.
Click to expand...
 
Casually Red said:
Just a few days earlier you posted this And next, Syria?
From the same writer claiming an all out government assault on Idlib was imminent . And now it's the total reverse . Do you even read what you post ?
Click to expand...
Not what Heller said (my bold) if you bother to read it.
...
But the United States and its allies also need to do some serious contingency planning for a northwest that in its current state is, realistically, unsustainable. The world will not indefinitely tolerate a northwest that is a Nusra-dominated jihadist haven. There are some longshot solutions that can be tried in the meantime, including a Hail Mary play by Ahrar al-Sham to expel the Nusra Front from northern Idlib and establish a Turkish-sponsored, internationally tolerable safe zone. These probably won’t work, and opposition backers should not plan on the basis that they’ll work. Eventually, an assault by the Assad regime and its allies is coming, and millions of civilians will be in its path.
...
Click to expand...
The regime is running East to take advantage of IS's retreat, to deny IS territory to rebels, for the hydro-carbons and because that's Iran's strategic priority.

Assad attacking Idlib again is inevitable but as always he'd pick at soft targets and bomb the shit out of civ pop. In Idlib that's the fragmented remnants of the rebellion that still hold territory. Heller's just saying don't expect Assad to retake Idlib easily as the R+6 is over stretched. A core AQ infestation will persist. Destroying that may require additional resources e.g. plentiful US airpower and JSOC teams.

Few wonks think IS will vanish from the Syrian middle Euphrates either any time soon. Like Idlib it will probably have a persistent insurgency. It's the same weary pattern we see in Iraq.

I'd say Assad's incentives are not that high to root the Takfiri entirely. He's plainly courted them as tactical assets in the past. They are good for his international position as he can pose as a brave ally in the GWOT as the pretty brutal Saleh once did in Yemen. Nipping at Rojova might well be higher priority in Assad's reconquista. Afrin after all is valuable real estate and the Russians appear willing to barter with the Turks over it.
 
In The National Senior Trump Mideast adviser removed following differences on Syria and Iran
...
The NSC spokesperson added that Mr Harvey might be reassigned within the administration and both sides were working to “identify positions in which his background and expertise can be best utilised”.

David Shor, a Middle East policy analyst based in New York, said Mr Harvey’s departure should be understood in the context of “the Trump administration's recent change of course in Syria, and attempts at a new approach in regards to Iran”.

Mr Shor referred to the shift in tactics in Syria, focusing solely on ISIL while ignoring the Assad regime and abandoning the Tanf airbase following friction with pro-Iranian proxies in the area. The administration also ended the CIA programme to aid Syrian rebels.

“These changes were surely opposed by Mr Harvey, and his departure should be seen in that context,” he said.
Mr Harvey, known for his hawkish views on Iran and favouring a holistic approach in confronting both Iran and ISIL in Syria and Iraq, found himself at odds with his superiors and generals at the Pentagon, former officials told The National.

“There is no desire to take the fight beyond ISIL,” said one former official. Another former official who previously worked with Mr Harvey at the Pentagon said there were personality differences between Mr Harvey and his bosses.

“He is very hard to work with, and is obsessed with countering Iran,” the official explained.
...
Click to expand...
Trump’s senior director for the Middle East Derek Harvey pushed out by The Pentagon.

In NavyTimes US parts ways with Syrian partner force involved in ISIS fight
...
The fighters are one of several coalition partner groups at a garrison at Tanf, a small town in southeastern Syria on the border with Iraq. They have received training from U.S. and UK troops, as well as equipment.

But U.S. officials have disavowed recent actions of the rebel group.

The Shohada Al Quartyan “unilaterally and without U.S. support, permission or coordination, conducted a patrol outside the agreed upon de-escalation zone [around Tanf] , and engaged in activities not focused on fighting ISIS,” said Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesperson for Operation Inherent Resolve.

He would not provide details as to what those activities were. “Fighting the regime could be one of their objectives,” Dillon acknowledged.
...
Click to expand...
I infer that isn't a US withdrawal from al Tanf but just a withdrawal of support for anti-regime activities.
 
CrabbedOne said:
Not what Heller said (my bold) if you bother to read it.
The regime is running East to take advantage of IS's retreat, to deny IS territory to rebels, for the hydro-carbons and because that's Iran's strategic priority.

Assad attacking Idlib again is inevitable but as always he'd pick at soft targets and bomb the shit out of civ pop. In Idlib that's the fragmented remnants of the rebellion that still hold territory. Heller's just saying don't expect Assad to retake Idlib easily as the R+6 is over stretched. A core AQ infestation will persist. Destroying that may require additional resources e.g. plentiful US airpower and JSOC teams.

Few wonks think IS will vanish from the Syrian middle Euphrates either any time soon. Like Idlib it will probably have a persistent insurgency. It's the same weary pattern we see in Iraq.

I'd say Assad's incentives are not that high to root the Takfiri entirely. He's plainly courted them as tactical assets in the past. They are good for his international position as he can pose as a brave ally in the GWOT as the pretty brutal Saleh once did in Yemen. Nipping at Rojova might well be higher priority in Assad's reconquista. Afrin after all is valuable real estate and the Russians appear willing to barter with the Turks over it.
Click to expand...

erm...Daesh are retreating in the east because the Syrian army and it's allies are hammering the shite out of them . On multiple fronts . From Palmyra right up to Hama . The Syrian army are taking the territory and whatever's in it because it's fucking Syria, their country . It's what they're supposed to do..them being the Syrian army . Relieving the siege of deir Ezzor ...just like the seiges of Kweires and Aleppo prison...is a massive Syrian priority regardless of Iran . That the city has held out this long is a major feat of military endurance . Taking back control of their own borders is a national priority . And it'll happen soon .

As regards the SAA only attacking soft targets , they haven't lost over 100,000 men dead..not including wounded..persuing that strategy . To post something like that is just inane . let's just forget the Battle for Allepo and all those other places ever happened . It's this type of childish nonsense that makes your posts more dreary than informative .
The Syrians have the Russian airforce in the air 24 / 7 . They can attack whatever targets they choose in Idlib when that offensive begins .
 
A good piece her by Patrick Cockburn on how the dominant narrative of the western media..and indeed NGOs and the like.. as regards reporting what's going on in Syria is pretty much controlled by Al Qaeda . Their word is taken as gospel, and it shows . Aq propaganda basically . Western journalists who were stupid enough to try reporting from among tHe rebels were kidnapped by the FSA and promptly sold to IS . Just as happened western aid workers . They then got their heads chopped off . That then left the way clear for the jihadis to control the news output . An arrangement that suits everyone on the " Assad must go " loony bandwagon .

LRB · Patrick Cockburn · Who supplies the news?: Misreporting in Syria and Iraq

And here

Why everything you’ve read about Syria and Iraq could be wrong

The silence over the 40000 dead in retaking Mosul is in very stark contrast indeed to what we heard as regards Aleppo .
 
teqniq said:
butchersapron Yeah I attempted to read that article by Fisk the other day, unfortunately it is indeed propaganda which is a shame but only to be expected wrt to him and Syria.

e2a the title of his piece is particularly laughable especially in light of Dasmascus's support of Sunni Jihadist insurgents in Iraq
Click to expand...


It's propaganda that the Syrian army have lost a lot of men fighting IS long before the yanks got involved ? Is it bollocks .

Back in 2013..when IS and Al Q were still mates with everyone except the Syrian army...this what the Syrian Army were facing .

Siege of Menagh Air Base - Wikipedia

twitterpic_2637812b.jpg


And there's US ambassador Robert Fords top boy standing giving it the takbir with IS after the capture of Menagh in a joint operation . One of many .



Fisk called it exactly right . Denying this is delusional .

And that's a great source you posted . A pro Israeli website quoting the ramblings of a US general .
 
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copliker said:
Torture and Sexual Violence Against Women in Assad’s Detention Centres - A 36 page report by Syrian NGO 'Lawyers and Doctors for Human Rights'

http://ldhrights.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Voices-from-the-Dark.pdf

8 cases covered.
Click to expand...
*Bump*

Zahira”: Five months in detention, which started with 15 days of relentless brutal sexual violence including gang rape for which she needed four months of reparative surgeries and treatment.
Click to expand...

“Amina”: detained for three months whilst pregnant, she saw the dead bodies of men get dragged around by jailers and men hanging from the walls, screaming.
Click to expand...
 
teqniq said:
butchersapron Yeah I attempted to read that article by Fisk the other day, unfortunately it is indeed propaganda which is a shame but only to be expected wrt to him and Syria.

e2a the title of his piece is particularly laughable especially in light of Dasmascus's support of Sunni Jihadist insurgents in Iraq
Click to expand...

The anti IS coalition...comprising a number of IS backers... was only formed in mid 2014 .

Military intervention against ISIL - Wikipedia

The Syrian army had been fighting daesh under its various names...almost always embedded with the other rebel groups ...for 2 years or more prior to that . The menagh example i referred to was in mid 2013 . So Fisk was absolutely spot on .
The FSA groups had invited al Q / dash and a host of other global nutters into Syria years prior to the US forming their coalition . Fisk is right
 
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The regime was co-operating with and buying oil from ISIS in this period. It was effectively the airforce of ISIS -bombing the anti-ISIS FSA and other groups so ISIS could advance. The whole regime plan was to help the jihadis win. Job nearly done.
 
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