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The Russian military’s admiration is based in part on Hezbollah’s performance during the Battle of Martyr Abu Omar Saraqib, a failed rebel offensive in late October to break the siege of east Aleppo. Hezbollah and regime forces recaptured areas lost during the initial attack, as well as adjacent rebel positions. Somewhere between
28 and
35 Hezbollah fighters died at the battle, out of a total 143 pro-regime fighters killed. This high number underscores the significant role that Hezbollah played in defending that front. During the initial onslaught, Hezbollah fighters reportedly
stood their ground against suicide car and truck bombs, ensuring that the regime line remained intact. “When the Russians see Hezbollah on the battlefield, they stop, talk to us, and show respect for our work. They do not have the same opinion of the Syrian army units,” said the Hezbollah commander.
On November 24 this cooperation was made public. Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper close to Hezbollah,
reported that the organization held its first official and direct meeting with Russian senior military officers to discuss the final battle for Aleppo. According to the article, the Russian officers, who had called the meeting, praised Hezbollah’s performance during the Battle of Martyr Abu Omar Saraqib. Both sides agreed to maintain constant communication “across joint channels in Syria.” Such cooperation led to the swift fall of Aleppo over the following month, with precise Russian airstrikes
providing cover for Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to capture rebel-held areas. “The Russians bring precision to the battlefield. Syrian airstrikes have terrible aim and go off target; the Russians are reliable,” the Hezbollah commander said. As the regime moves its focus to consolidating its gains in Aleppo and
expanding its territory, this relationship is likely to continue unfettered, for now.
For Moscow, a strong allied armed force on the ground that is competent both in offense and defense provides numerous benefits to its military campaign. Russian military planners learned the value of this early in the intervention, when regime forces and their allies were
unable to take back territory under the cover of Russian airstrikes until the Russians took the lead by dramatically escalating their own attacks. Hezbollah helped the regime take more efficient advantage of these airstrikes,
learning much from the Russians along the way. The Lebanese militia proved its ability to save the Assad regime by helping capture strategic areas, notably the towns of Salma in Latakia governorate, Sheikh Miskeen in Daraa, and Nubl and Zahraa in Aleppo. Bashar al-Assad has now taken control almost all of “
useful Syria”—what Iran calls the economic and demographic core in the west of the country through which it can funnel aid to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Moving forward, Hezbollah will likely continue to spearhead the campaign, bolstering the regime’s offensive capabilities while providing defense as required. With a trustworthy ally on the ground able to help the regime consolidate its holdings and capture new, strategic territory, Moscow can focus on bringing the conflict to a negotiated end.
Hezbollah has been a useful non-state partner to Russian forces in Syria. The Lebanese Shia militia and Iranian proxy currently fields
between 6,000 and 8,000 fighters in that country’s civil war, with some estimates as
high as 10,000. Having suffered roughly
2,000 deaths and over
5,000 injured since their involvement in the conflict, Hezbollah has continued to be a stalwart ally of the Assad regime, fighting as far away as
Deir ez-Zor. Since September 2015 this has included
working closely with the Russian military, which intervened in an apparently effective attempt to save the Assad regime. Hezbollah’s success on the ground in Syria has been noted by Moscow, which views it as a capable ally that has strongly contributed to the survival of the Syrian government. But as the regime’s fortunes improve, Russia is signaling its willingness to rebels and their foreign backers to find a negotiated solution to the conflict, calculating that the regime’s current ascendancy will give it more leverage at the negotiating table to secure a favorable deal. Yet in the long term this solution may also limit Hezbollah’s influence in a post-conflict Syria.
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