And next, Syria?

[Casually Red]

Something that doesn't look like it's run by 'loons

Spooks’ view on Syria: what wikileaks revealed

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

View attachment 97624
do any of these look like reputable sources?

I suggest you try another search engine. us destabilising syria at DuckDuckGo

Just to clarify - you seriously don't see any of the situation in Syria as the result of US/UK efforts toward destabilisation?

 

[Casually Red]

I suggest you try another search engine. us destabilising syria at DuckDuckGo

Just to clarify - you seriously don't see any of the situation in Syria as the result of US/UK efforts toward destabilisation?

US/UK/France/Saudi/Qatari . All with a long track record in pouring billions in arms and finance into " leftist " uprisings

The qatari pipelines just part of this . It's also..primarily.. about neutering Iran . in Lebanon too . About getting rid of non compliant states and actors whomever they are . Anyone closing their eyes to this is wilfully dishonest on the issue . It's a proxy war actively promoting and utilising sectarian hatred and division first and foremost to destabilise the levant and promote a host of interests, every last one of which any leftist worthy of the name should be firmly against .

Articles here that rip these " leftist " fantasies to bits . Exposing their " leftist " anguish at the US state department not supplying sufficient advanced weaponry to the jihadists , for not directly attacking Syria itself . And their empty infantile slogans about " Russian imperialism " . All to justify support for a sectarian bloodbath led by the scum of the earth .

No to Western intervention in Syria and Ukraine, no to its left-wing apologists - A Socialist in Canada

This one directed first and foremost at French 5th columnists but applicable to all of them .

Syria: French Academic Exposes Left-Wing Charlatans as Harbingers of Terrorism

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Iran Tracker

...
Regional Developments & Diplomacy

• Velayati hails “Moscow Declaration.” Senior Foreign Policy Adviser to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati praised the December 20 meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkey regarding the Syrian crisis as a “major development.” He stated, “In the past, Iran and Russia have been on one side, and Turkey on the other. Today, however, these three countries have formed the premise for achieving… the liberation of the Syrian government and people from the hands of foreigners.” Velayati “expressed hope that through this meeting, the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the legitimate government of Syria will be stabilized, the people will escape this ruinous war, the terrorists will be driven out of Syria, and Syria will be out of the hands of foreigners.” (Tasnim News Agency) (E) (Asr Iran)
  
• Shamkhani praises trilateral ministerial meeting. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani applauded the trilateral negotiations between the Iranian, Russian, and Turkish foreign ministers for “completely supporting the independence and sovereignty of Syria and giving priority to the political process.” Shamkhani added that the results of the talks represent the “true strategy of the Islamic Republic since the outbreak of terrorism in Syria.” (Fars News Agency)

...

Christmas has come early in Teheran.

The hugs for Turkey and Syrian independence are hilarious as it was probably an Iranian drone strike that killed four TSK soldiers engaged in Erdogan's anti-PKK land grab up by al Bab a week ago.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In The WSJ Russia’s Rise in Mideast Creates Enemies

...
“Russia is certainly being perceived as the new bully in the neighborhood,” said Hassan Hassan, a fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington. “The way people react to its involvement in the decimation of one of the most revered Sunni cities in the Middle East, Aleppo, is reminiscent of how the U.S. was viewed after its occupation of Iraq. You only need to follow how the killer of the Russian ambassador was glorified throughout the region to get an idea of how Russia is despised by the populace today.”

Though Russia has become the immediate focus of this outrage, the fall of Aleppo is also intensifying support in the region for jihadist groups that plot terrorist attacks in the West such as Islamic State and al Qaeda.

“There is a feeling that Aleppo signifies a new phase,” said Lebanese lawmaker Basem Shabb. “The level of anger is very high and there is no doubt that what happened there will fuel a lot of extremism, in Europe and other parts of the world.”
...

Imperialist Russkis becoming a magnet for Sunni Arab anger.

Syria does show some promise of becoming a low rent Russian version of the US misadventure in Iraq but more work is needed here by Moscow. As far as I can tell the Arab and Turkish streets are still clinging to the comforting idea that Uncle Sam is behind all evil in the world. After trillions of tax dollars flushed down the pan most Iraqi's still poll as thinking the US backs IS. It's as stubborn a folk belief as Santa Claus or trickle down economics.

 

[Pickman's model]

I suggest you try another search engine. us destabilising syria at DuckDuckGo

Just to clarify - you seriously don't see any of the situation in Syria as the result of US/UK efforts toward destabilisation?

So you're a fan of the status quo ante

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Chatham House Most Syrian Christians Aren’t Backing Assad (or the Rebels)

...
Apolitical actors

Yet both of these groups – those who support the regime or the revolution – are a minority among Christians. The majority are neither with the regime nor with the opposition. They look sceptically toward the revolution, particularly after its Islamization – but neither do they support the regime.

One senior religious leader told me how Christians in his area are willing to take up arms to defend their neighbourhoods against attack from armed Islamic groups – but this doesn’t translate into support for the regime. They refuse to serve with the military; they’re unwilling to fight for this regime. Many believe the regime cares little for their safety.

In April 2013, one week before he was kidnapped, Bishop Yohanna Ibrahim, head of the Syriac Orthodox Church in Aleppo, blamed the Syrian regime for failing to deal with the ongoing crisis.

Some Christians who used to support the regime now register their discontent with the poor public services provided by the state and accuse the regime of neglecting Christian areas. A few months ago, another Syrian bishop warned the regime not to test the patience of the Christians in his area because of the deterioration of public services.

Unlike those who support the regime or the revolution, this group has no definite political position in the current struggle. They simply care for their safety and the provision of services.
...

A position probably shared by a plurality of Syrians.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Monotheism finger fail!

Reports of IS burning alive captured Turkish soldiers up by al Bab.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On MEE Aleppo falls to Assad forces as Russia plans Syria ceasefire talks

For all the hand wringing and hysterical holocaust comparisons the siege of Aleppo ended rather tidily as these things go; well after several years and 31K dead. That's about three Sarajevo's or a tenth of an Okinawa.

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

So you're a fan of the status quo ante

Sorry, was the question too difficult? Or are you just treading water while we wait for Butchers to turn up and tell you what to think?

 

[Pickman's model]

Sorry, was the question too difficult? Or are you just treading water while we wait for Butchers to turn up and tell you what to think?

no, it didn't seem to me that you seriously wanted a response.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sorry, was the question too difficult? Or are you just treading water while we wait for Butchers to turn up and tell you what to think?

as i say, it seems you would have preferred the status quo ante to continue.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Echoes of Algeria.

 

[CrabbedOne]

New Syrian Army old news?

I'd have thought CENTCOM would have been wanting something rebely in the way of the reestablishment of the Iranian GLOC across Anbar to the Beqaa.

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

no, it didn't seem to me that you seriously wanted a response.

Yes, I seriously want a response. I even used the word 'seriously' in the question in the hope that you would understand this.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, I seriously want a response. I even used the word 'seriously' in the question in the hope that you would understand this.

yeh it was that use which gave me to understand that the question was rhetorical, that you felt no one could feel other than you do.

anyway, you've had responses now and i hope you're happy with them.

 

[CrabbedOne]

The saintly Bashar really shouldn't feel he's being picked on unfairly; Uncle Sam has always been a bit regime changey.

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

yeh it was that use which gave me to understand that the question was rhetorical, that you felt no one could feel other than you do.

Nope, it's a simple question, directed to you, based on a post you made where you appear to doubt that US/UK/etc. destabilisation had a role in shaping the current situation in Syria.

Do you want to 'phone a friend'? (It's already 50/50, so you can't have that).

 

[Pickman's model]

Nope, it's a simple question, directed to you, based on a post you made where you appear to doubt that US/UK/etc. destabilisation had a role in shaping the current situation in Syria.

Do you want to 'phone a friend'? (It's already 50/50, so you can't have that).

i would like to know which question you want an answer to.

started off with the us.

then it was the us and uk.

now it's the us, the uk "etc"

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Take your pick. Whichever you find easiest.

 

[butchersapron]

Fantastic, quietly blistering piece from Fadi A. Bardawil: Forsaking the Syrian Revolution: An Anti-ImperialistHandbook

an examination of the political discourses of the Metropolitan Left vis-à-vis Syria, the arguments and logics they draw on, and what they circumvent.

and after demonstrating just how these logics work to disappear the revolution, work to foreground their own relation to 'empire' etc concludes:

Having said that, Metropolitan anti-imperialism, when it comes to Syria, is uncannily haunted by imperial arguments, logics and sensibilities. Both groups cannot imagine political practice that is not bound to, and defined by its relation, to Empire. They both draw from the same Islamophobic pool of concepts, making distinctions between Good Muslims and Bad Muslims. They are both convinced that they know better than the people on the ground, especially if they contest their imperial/anti-imperial politics. They both practice a politics drenched with moralism; possessed by a crusading spirit that seeks to eradicate evil in the world (America is the eradicator of all Evil/America is the source of all Evil). At the level of sensibilities, they are both endowed with a self-complacency and self-assuredness of being on the right side of History.

Assad, recently, declared that Donald Trump could be a “natural ally”. Those Leftists who foreclose the possibility of solidarity with the Syrian struggle for emancipation by excising the revolutionaries from the domain of the political by dubbing all of them ‘Jihadis’ and ‘sectarian’ may well draw from the same conceptual pool of those proposing a ‘Muslim registry’ in the Metropole.

 

[Pickman's model]

Nope, it's a simple question, directed to you, based on a post you made where you appear to doubt that US/UK/etc. destabilisation had a role in shaping the current situation in Syria.

Do you want to 'phone a friend'? (It's already 50/50, so you can't have that).

no. i do not.

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

You did phone a friend!

Thanks.

 

[Pickman's model]

You did phone a friend!

Thanks.

You asked 'do you want to phone a friend'

I said no I don't.

But now it seems you don't understand a simple answer.

 

[butchersapron]

That second paper is really interesting. Syrian economy completely fucked by profiteering military/paramilitary spivs. It's basically a lively Hobbesian economy of armed actors on both sides energetically screwing the population. Lots of incentives for perpetuating low level conflict. Conventional developmental assistance may not work until this societal breakdown is somewhat repaired and a more centralised state restored.

I expect you've seen this one:

Liberalization and Conflict in the Syrian Economy

This essay will shed some light on the economic aspect of the Syrian conflict from the perspective of the Syrian regime. It will begin by providing background on the Syrian economy under Hafez al-Asad and the liberalization measures undertaken under Bashar. It will, then, address the impact of the conflict and its associated policies and conclude by highlighting the dynamics of the Syrian economy under a potential transition government.

In one of Bashar’s interviews, he portrays the reconstruction process as rewarding to political allies – namely Russia, China and Iran – and expects adversarial countries to urge their companies to join the process.

The implicit assumption of this logic is that economic liberalization must take place, in order to attain such a profit-generating reconstruction. This is evident from the laws enacted in this regard during the Geneva 3 peace talks.

Given that the amount of devastation might not facilitate a profit-driven reconstruction, the Syrian economy may have to be content with a gradual and partial re-construction process, if it seeks to avoid political concessions.

A similar logic applies to the process of lifting economic sanctions. Whereas Western powers will use sanctions as a tool for extracting concessions, the Syrian response could be to further reorient trade away from the West. This option is manageable given the country’s low technological base as well as the emergence of other economic powers.

 

[CrabbedOne]

From The Aleppo Project THE WAR ECONOMY IN NORTHERN SYRIA

...

• Ensure that the war economy is part of a peace process. The Dayton Accord that ended the war in Bosnia did not address the issue and the Bonn Agreement of 2001 that created an interim government in Afghanistan ignored the fact that most of the signatories had been involved in the war economy. In both cases, and in Iraq, Somalia and elsewhere, a failure to address criminality in the economy has undermined the peace, deepened instability and led to a vast waste of resources. Syria had a deeply criminal economy before the war; the low level of regulation and transparency has now entirely vanished. A failure to tackle these problems in peace agreements has been a disaster. “In countries such as Bosnia and Afghanistan, the results are enduring and pernicious: a large informal economy, powerful and armed organized crime groups, corruption in public office, the intimidation of public officials and drug trafficking and trafficking in humans. As a result, funds are generated for, and by, extremist groups and sometimes spoilers who have the power to undermine peacebuilding efforts.”176
• Foreign military support. The most important resource sustaining the combat economy is foreign military aid to rebel groups. Even the strongest armed group, Ahrar ash-Sham, is dependent on this. Curtailing it could force rebel groups to the negotiation table. These measures should come within a comprehensive package of diminishing combat economy resources of all sides. Cutting military aid from the rebel groups without destroying ISIS and Jabhet an-Nusra, which are fairly self-sustaining, will simple cede ground to these radical organizations. Similarly, the foreign resources directed to the regime’s combat economy must be halted. Undertaking these measures will require a consensus among all the important regional and international actors, something that has remained elusive.

...

Another look at Syria's rotted out war economy.

That last bullet is a good point. The more coercive Salafi-Jihadi groups will always be able to create a Syrian tax base that the less radical rebels fear would completely lose them their popular support. The former are only going to surge forward if the Gulfies and Turks cut off their funding of areas like rebel Idlib.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Military.com US Army General Slams Russia's 'Live-Fire Training' in Syria

...
In a BBC interview, Hodges, who has been central to the buildup of U.S. and NATO forces in Europe against Russia, said that "what we see in Syria, of course is a demonstration of capabilities" by the Russian military with no regard for the civilian casualties and the suffering inflicted.

The Russians in their support of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were "using weapons demonstrating, practicing if you will -- it's a live fire opportunity to experiment and train with all of its weapons systems. That's not helpful."

"Of course, the disregard for civilian casualties that we see in places like Aleppo, again, that‘s not the conduct of a nation that wants to be a superpower and be treated like a superpower," Hodges said, but Putin only underlined his claim that Russia was now dominant in both conventional and nuclear forces.
...

So unbecoming compared with the KSA's US backed chevauchée in Yemen or say staging a nice big armoured invasion of Iraq while the British were banging on about the training value of operational deployment.

Also has Trump promising to spend big on US nukes before he's even got his tiny hands of the nuclear codes.

So reassuring.

 

[GrowbagUK]

Modernisation of the economy does not equate to neo-liberalization. It is a neccessity in order to survive global capitalism especially in a war-torn state suffering from economic sanctions

The article does highlight some of the obvious stategic implications of a Syrian-Russian-Iranian alliance threatening western capital in the region but fails to address the somewhat crucial competing gas pipeline projects.

Also worth bearing in mind is the cultural war perpetrated through academia. This article focuses completely on economic factors where it is all to easy for academics to cherry-pick data from afar to suit their western narrative....and judging by the language and the political leanings of the author we can see where his ideoligcal biases lie.

 

[butchersapron]

On the same fraudster:

So a conspiracy theorist with a blog who briefly visited Syria as a guest of the regime is declaring that everything you know about Syria is wrong.



Very useful collection of links in the 2nd half of the takedown. The highly skilled and fearless minds won't even look at them. Here for example is her central claims being taken down.

A pic of that well attended meeting the UN called (no they didn't, the regime UN mission did) that the venerable bartlett was invited to address because of her importance and inside knowledge blah blah:

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Informed Comment With Fall of Aleppo, will a Russo-Iranian Middle East challenge Trump?

Prof Cole adds authoritarian Egypt under its MB loathing junta to not so much a Shia Crescent as an alliance of anti-Salafi states. Only Northern Yemen under the Houthi-Saleh axis should be greened out. Some gradations might be helpful. You could colour Afghanistan and Oman light green as both are rather Persian tolerant.

I would not be so sure of the Egyptians. Cairo's Generals might pimp themselves out again to the GCC at some point. Though that map does rather ram home what worries the Princes in the KSA.

This does present Trump and his Iran hating FP team with a quandary. Trump's amour fou Russia is allied with this bunch. Something has gotta give and it's probably Reset II with Russia.