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And next, Syria?

mikey mikey said:
(transferred from other thread) The Jihadi (AQ, nusra, ISIS) are being supported by the US and the UK in order to oust Assad in a long term foreign to cause regime change in Syria.
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Jesus wept. After nearly 8000 posts on this thread alone - leaving aside the many concurrent or now dead ones - undermining this crude idiocy, we're back to this insulting simplistic and untrue nonsense. If nothing else, it demonstrates the value of simple propaganda on a simple mind.

Why would you even look to get involved in discussions on this issue if this is the level of knowledge you have? Asking questions to become better informed, looking to evaluate which sources you can trust and what the interests, agendas and motivations of different actors - internally externally, locally, globally, militarily, economically, politically - all good and probably essential stuff since you're celarly not reading any thing serious or attempting serious research away from here and a few cranks, anti-semites, far right loon and pro-regime jihadi sites. But just to turn up here and say this stuff is laughable. And it shows that you don't actually give a shit about what's happening in syria.
 
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teqniq said:
I suspect a fairly simple answer to this is: trolling. Hence the splurging of provocative bullshit across a number of threads.
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It's not trolling, it's genuinely ill-informed and motivated idiocy - you don't end up in the bartlett-beeley-ashdown-icke-keefe-etc sewer by accident.
 
Even the bearded young man who was shouting at me about 'america' and how we 'have it all wrong' last week, from 30 feet away on a bike, did better than that mikey.

And he didn't do very well at all at all.
 
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Oh really? I'm the troll?

Getting repeatedly insulted and wished dead while not rising to the bait is trolling now?

Gee it's almost as if you were "moderates" from the Labour party lashing out with insults and threats and accusations of "trolling" while threatening and insulting people that disagreed with your party line.

I wonder why that is.:hmm:
 
Well if your mods think I'm trolling they can contact me about it.

I am sure they will be equally willing to look at the insults, mobbing, and death wishes that I have been subject to as well.
 
Casually Red said:


We weren't snubbed, we just weren't invited ...:D:D

Welcome to the multipolar world, oh indispensable nation
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On C4 news yesterday Jon Snow asked the question of the non-invitation of the US and UN "Have Western interests lost out in Syria?" I mean what the fucking fuck???? The three powerful neighbours in geography and/or diplomacy of Syria finally sit down at the table and try to work this shit out in a way they can all live with, with the potential of bringing the war to an end (what's Saudi or Qatar gonna do, invade?) or at least turning the rate of kill down to just another Chicago-Sunday levels... and this cynical pillocks main concern is "has the West lost, in this massive shit-fest of a war that we've done our best to extend because Regime Change Crusade" Absolutely sickening.

What they say is true, you know nothing Jon Snow.

eta: Just watched the vid, what a load of old bollocks they speak, it's worse than reading the likes of apron or coplicker. "Power vacuum in the Middle East" wails blokey, as not just one but three powers in the region sit down to work things out. I guess it's not considered power unless it's US power, all others being either vassals or essentially designated for regime-change or destruction.

I wonder if this was Lavrovs plan all along, demonstrate endless patience with American bad-faith at the table so as to demonstrate to those to whom this whole thing isn't a game just how pointless it is involving the US in anything that involves de-escalation in Syria. Perhaps that's why Russian diplomats are being targeted now, their diplomacy skills are now considered a serious threat to the hegemon of chaos.
 
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camouflage said:
On C4 news yesterday Jon Snow asked the question of the non-invitation of the US and UN "Have Western interests lost out in Syria?" I mean what the fucking fuck???? The three powerful neighbours in geography and/or diplomacy of Syria finally sit down at the table and try to work this shit out in a way they can all live with, with the potential of bringing the war to an end (what's Saudi or Qatar gonna do, invade?) or at least turning the rate of kill down to just another Chicago-Sunday levels... and this cynical pillocks main concern is "has the West lost, in this massive shit-fest of a war that we've done our best to extend because Regime Change Crusade" Absolutely sickening.

What they say is true, you know nothing Jon Snow.

eta: Just watched the vid, what a load of old bollocks they speak, it's worse than reading the likes of apron or coplicker. "Power vacuum in the Middle East" wails blokey, as not just one but three powers in the region sit down to work things out. I guess it's not considered power unless it's US power, all others being either vassals or essentially designated for regime-change or destruction.

I wonder if this was Lavrovs plan all along, demonstrate endless patience with American bad-faith at the table so as to demonstrate to those to whom this whole thing isn't a game just how pointless it is involving the US in anything that involves de-escalation in Syria. Perhaps that's why Russian diplomats are being targeted now, their diplomacy skills are now considered a serious threat to the hegemon of chaos.
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Its frickin unbelievable . I'd always thought he was alright . Hard to believe that's the same Snow who donned a wetsuit alongside Fisk and some Iraqi commandos and swam out to rescue a bunch of sailors trapped in no mans land by the Iranians . But then again the western msm reacted the very same way to chinas investment summit in Africa . Why no Yanks Brits etc ? What's gone wrong ?

I think Lavrov knew the mental level he was dealing with when Clinton presented him with that big red reset button with some gibberish on it . They couldn't even get that right . Didn't get any better after that . The assholes only know how to break stuff .
 
I suppose in this case it has been shown the the 'indispensable nation' can be dispensed with, in the name of peace anyway. Maybe later when we none-crusaders want shit fucked-up beyond all recognition somewhere we'll give em a call.
 
camouflage said:
. Perhaps that's why Russian diplomats are being targeted now, their diplomacy skills are now considered a serious threat to the hegemon of chaos.
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There could be something to that . Time and time again the choice in geo politics comes to an adherence to international law as a framework or choosing chaos . The Russians always have that to fall back on, Putins phd was well chosen . Their opponents just aren't imaginative enough to make it up as they go along , they just keep breaking stuff and thinking the free market will sort it out eventually . Bonkers .

Liberating Allepo means the yanks and their proxies have few cards to play now . The wars been won strategically speaking although there's a serious lot of mopping up to do. And Russian diplomacy is were its at now for the seriously minded . Erdogans facing the consequences of his own lunacy and has nowhere else to turn . There's nothing the yanks could even bring to that table . Been reading a number of reports there hasn't been a militant TOW video upload since the start of the month . Could indicate the tap got turned off In the face of strategic defeat and an incoming administration that might have a thing or 2 to say about breaking US law to supply jihadis . for the life of me I can't see Trump giving those bums a packet of fags .

Multipolarism is we're it's at now . The empires definitely not what it was . Massive fail but at a catastrophic price for the Syrian nation .
 
Well it was getting hard to see what the US was bringing to the table in Geneva apart from the airs and graces of Great Power grandstanding for the Russians to bask in. Lots of US sulking but no real leverage despite all those resources thrown behind the revolt. The Russians don't really seem to be fully in control either. They're ending up as Chair of a long peace process with the thankless task of herding regional cats.

Seems all the Syrians (no regime, opposition or PKK) were utterly dispensable at that Russia-Turkey-Iran meeting as well. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose! It continues in the manner of the imperious Russia-US talks in Geneva just with some smaller, fry at table. Of course the Baathist regime has no interest in flapping its gums at a fragmented opposition with little to bargain with.

The Turks and more so the Iranians have real power on the ground but none of them are now doing anything but nakedly pursuing their own interests on a pile of Syrian skulls. The IRGC is laying in deterrent capability for a war with Israel. It is the Iranians who probably set final limits on what turf the hollowed out Baath regime can hold securely. Their occupying force of militias appears essential to that. While the Turks intend to use the dependant remains of the Northern revolt as strategic depth against the PKK no matter how the US squeals about IS. The phrase "What a carve up!" comes to mind.
 
On ISW Russian Airstrikes in Syria: November 21 - December 19, 2016
...
Russia also intensified its air operations against ISIS in Eastern Syria beginning on December 7 in a failed attempt to prevent the recapture of Palmyra in Eastern Homs Province by ISIS on December 11. Russia conducted heavy waves of airstrikes against ISIS on the outskirts of Palmyra from December 7 – 10 amidst an ongoing offensive by the group against outlying oil and natural gas fields. Although the air campaign forced ISIS to temporarily reverse its progress into Palmyra, poorly-trained pro-regime militiamen on the ground proved unable to hold the city – particularly given the withdrawal of local garrisons by Russia and Iran on or around December 7. In the wake of that defeat, Russia conducted punitive air operations against ISIS-held terrain in Eastern Syria on December 12, including the group’s stronghold in Ar-Raqqa City and a swathe of several villages in Eastern Hama Province allegedly targeted with chemical munitions. Russia will likely invest more heavily in the defense of the nearby T4 (Tiyas) Airbase in order to protect its main base of operations in Central Syria. Russia reportedly deployed special operations forces to T4 Airbase on December 13 amidst ongoing clashes with ISIS, reflecting the airfield’s critical importance as a launching point for helicopter gunships operated by Russia in Palmyra. The recapture of Palmyra highlights the inability of pro-regime forces to establish security across the entire country without sustained support from Russia and Iran, notwithstanding their recent success in Aleppo City. In the end, Russia and Syria prioritized the defeat of the opposition in Aleppo City over the defense of Palmyra from ISIS, ultimately enhancing the threat posed by Salafi-jihadist groups in both Northern and Eastern Syria.
...
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Not sure the Russians "prioritized" much there. The regime concentrated most of its limited offensive resources in Aleppo. The IRGC clearly had Mosul and Aleppo as a higher priority. The thinned line of Palmyra's defenders on the ground ran away despite quite a lot of Russian CAS. The small Russian ground force there was (sensibly) the most eager to get out of IS's way blowing up its camp and sparking a panic. In the rout the Iranians lost a couple of officers and IS claims to have killed ~350 of the defenders.
 
On GRI Interview with Dr. Joshua Landis: The Syrian regime in 2017
...
Dr. Landis: President Assad has said that he won’t negotiate autonomy with Syria’s Kurds. Russia tried to intercede and facilitate this and [Assad] rejected any negotiation. This is in large part because Assad believes in the future he could become stronger, both militarily and politically on the ground. Then he would be in a much better position to handle the Kurds. There may be an accommodation, but this would likely also come with a military push and pull which won’t be easy for Assad. The Kurds and Assad have very different objectives. The Kurdish YPG wants something that resembles what the Iraqi Kurds already has, essentially de facto independence. Assad is not going to want this type of autonomy to take hold within Syria – separate schools, separate flag, a separate army. He might have to accept a certain amount of that, but most of the economic resources will not be tolerated. A lot of this is dependent the balance of power with Turkey.

The more difficult the relations are between President Erdoğan and the Kurds of Syria, the more they will be forced back into the arms of President Assad. The Kurds and the Assad forces have kept their distance from each other and have even been working together, as we saw in Aleppo. They both see Turkey as a common enemy. Assad is going to want to use the Kurds against Turkey, and is going to want to move north to Al-Bab and other ISIS-held areas before Turkey does. Turkey would like to spread Operation Euphrates Shields as far south as they can. On the other hand, Assad could present himself as the force that can reign in and prevent the Kurds from gaining their national sovereignty. The Turks could accomplish that with their own army, but they’d prefer to leave the grunt work to the Syrian government.
...
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Has Assad not being much worried by Salafist Idlib.

I can't see how the regime can hold Aleppo without securing a buffer zone in the countryside. It's much like the Baghdad Belts situation and it would be just as easy to project a very nasty terrorist war into the city to spoil Assad's victory. AQ certainly knows how to do that.

Though al Bab falling to the TSK presents similar longer term problems so Landis has a point. A clash with the Turks is the sort of thing worth calling up your reserves for. The regime's been telegraphing for sometime if would deny Turkey al Bab.
 
So the article says:
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
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That is because the author, one Jonathan Mautner is in the US and in fact just graduated from Harvard where he was the close protege of James Baker (the neocon Republican who worked for Dubya, no less).

His project was entitled “Financing Jihad: ISIL, Al-Qaeda and the Money Behind Mass Casualty Terrorism,” and his advisor was James Baker.
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Jonathan Mautner Wins CMES AM Thesis Prize for Paper on ISIL and Financing Terrorism.

The site itself is of the ISW which was founded by Kimberly Kagan, wife to Karl Kagan whose brother is the co-founder of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century. That makes her sister-in-law Victoria "fuck Europe" Nuland, who was instrumental in putting Neo Nazis in power in Kiev.

And finally. here is the profile on the ISW itself.

ISW describes itself as a non-partisan think tank providing research and analysis regarding issues of defense and foreign affairs, but has been described by others as "a hawkish Washington" group[1] favoring an "aggressive foreign policy".[2]
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Their preferred writer for Syria previous to young Mautner here was Elizabeth O'Bagy who was fired because she...

..had an unrevealed affiliation with the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a U.S.-based group advocating the armed overthrow of the government of Syria.[12] In her paid work with that group, done simultaneously with her job at the officially nonpartisan Institute for the Study of War, she had lobbied American political leaders to send heavy weaponry to Syrian insurgent groups.
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Elizabeth O'Bagy - Wikipedia

And some of you talk about reliable sources and "fake news"!

Bwahahahahaha!
 
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In The National US out in the cold as Russia, Turkey and Iran team up on Syria
...
But the gulf between Ankara’s goals and what those proxies want could spell trouble.

"It looks like we’re approaching some sort of breaking point between Turkey’s proxy use of the rebels and then what those rebels are willing to tolerate," said Mr Heller. "Turkey’s instrumentalisation of these rebels for its own specific ends has only become more obvious and naked recently in ways that are pretty clearly mostly unrelated to the rebels’ own goals or to the Syrian revolutionary cause."

Russia, Iran and Turkey may also be trying to lay the groundwork on a Syria settlement before a new US president takes office on January 20, bringing with him the promise of significant, though still ill-defined, changes to Washington’s Syria policy.

Washington under president Barack Obama turned the US into a bit player in Syria, limited to training and equipping Syrian rebels. When it became apparent that Mr Obama would not use – or even continue to threaten – military action in Syria after a chemical weapons attack in 2013 or during the siege of Aleppo, the US lost negotiating power with Russia.

As Mr Obama prepares to leave the White House, Russia has openly mocked America’s diplomatic overtures, at one point dismissing them as "whining."
...
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Perhaps more interesting is Iran's Syria agenda really runs counter to the Assad's long rather passive aggressive policy Israel policy. When Ali Khamenei expresses delight at having forces next to the Israeli border in Syria it's not because of his appreciation for gefilte fish. Russia's ME policy also hinges on avoiding a confrontation with the rather dangerous and similarly belligerent Israel in Syria. Not least because the US would then rush to Israel's aid in a mama Grizzly way it never would have for any other nation.
 
mikey mikey said:
So the article (over a month old now) says:


That is because the author, one Jonathan Mautner is in the US and in fact just graduated from Harvard where he was the close protege of James Baker (the neocon Republican who worked for Dubya, no less).


Jonathan Mautner Wins CMES AM Thesis Prize for Paper on ISIL and Financing Terrorism.

The site itself is of the ISW which was founded by Kimberly Kagan, wife to Karl Kagan whose brother is the co-founder of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century. That makes her sister-in-law Victoria "fuck Europe" Nuland, who was instrumental in putting Neo Nazis in power in Kiev.

And finally. here is the profile on the ISW itself.



Their preferred writer for Syria previous to young Mautner here was Elizabeth O'Bagy who was fired because she...



Elizabeth O'Bagy - Wikipedia

And some of you talk about reliable sources and "fake news"!

Bwahahahahaha!
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Well that's all boringly common knowledge. But so what?

Are we such babes in the wood as to be completely incapable of reading a source critically? Trapped in an infantile playpen of ideologically comforting babble and unable to look at the world from other angles.

Everybody who looks at Syria seriously knows ISW is a Kagan outfit with a very pro-Israeli agenda. ISW also employs a respectable set of former military analysts trying to figure out what's going on in various conflicts mostly from Arabic language open sources. It's often a valuable crosscheck on CENTCOM's IO led positions. Col Lang on SST often praises their analytical rigour despite tending to take an pro-Assad stance.
 
CrabbedOne said:
Everybody who looks at Syria seriously knows ISW is a Kagan outfit with a very pro-Israeli agenda. ISW also employs a respectable set of former military analysts trying to figure out what's going on in various conflicts mostly from Arabic language open sources.
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That must be why you thought it wasn't worth mentioning.:thumbs:
 
The thread was taken off topic deliberately, as was the Russian ambassador assasination thread, by several individuals who wish to shout down anything not toeing the neo-con pro "moedrate rebels" (i.e. Isis amd AQ) line.

I remember something similar when there was the Iraq invasion and the Republicans were screaming "You hate America!". Except then hey didn't call themselves progressives; they called themselves conservatives. Now a Democrat or a New Labour "moderate" is doing for Syria what Dubya's fans on the internet were doing for Mission Accomplished.
 
mikey mikey said:
The thread was taken off topic deliberately, as was the Russian ambassador assasination thread, by several individuals who wish to shout down anything not toeing the neo-con pro "moedrate rebels" (i.e. Isis amd AQ) line.

I remember something similar when there was the Iraq invasion and the Republicans were screaming "You hate America!". Except then hey didn't call themselves progressives; they called themselves conservatives. Now a Democrat or a New Labour "moderate" is doing for Syria what Dubya's fans on the internet were doing for Mission Accomplished.
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Honestly butchers is right, it's not even about disagreeing with you it's just that you do not really know what you are talking about. I have done some reading on the Syrian Civil War, but not the amount that other posters here have done and that includes ones that I disagree with, though I know enough to know that you have no real idea as to what is going on. That being said, I am aware of my own ignorance and so instead of just bloviating stupidly from page to page on here I read and I learn.
 
mikey mikey said:
The thread was taken off topic deliberately, as was the Russian ambassador assasination thread, by several individuals who wish to shout down anything not toeing the neo-con pro "moedrate rebels" (i.e. Isis amd AQ) line.

I remember something similar when there was the Iraq invasion and the Republicans were screaming "You hate America!". Except then hey didn't call themselves progressives; they called themselves conservatives. Now a Democrat or a New Labour "moderate" is doing for Syria what Dubya's fans on the internet were doing for Mission Accomplished.
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The idiocy and ignorance of this post is quite staggering. FFS, nobody is toeing any neo-con lines on here. Please piss off and leave this really important subject to people that have some knowledge and critical abilities.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
The idiocy and ignorance of this post is quite staggering. FFS, nobody is toeing any neo-con lines on here. Please piss off and leave this really important subject to people that have some knowledge and critical abilities.
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Someone with 'a neo-con agenda' posting would probably be preferable and more interesting than the ramblings of 'mikey mikey'.
 
Neo-conservatism really is not a boogie monster or a conspiracy theory. Many of the people involved in the PNAC statement are involved at the highest level of politics. Not so recently the Labour Party "moderates" started claiming the term Blairite something similar- a phantom of the Left. This is while they openly expressed a desire for Tony Blair to come back into front-line Parliamentary politics.

Neocons and Blairites would like the population to forget that they were the ones who spread lies about WMD in Iraq and set up Gitmo, brought back the use of torture and detention without trial. They would like you forgetthat the press became complicit in their crimes because the general public trusted the likes of the BBC and CNN to tell them the news and not government war propaganda.

Now these same people and this same press are asking us to back the very terrorists we were originally at war with and they are distorting facts and creating fake news just like before.

And no, I won't "piss off".
 
mikey mikey said:
Now these same people and this same press is asking us to back the very terrorists we were originally at war with and they are distorting facts and creating fake news just like before.
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Have you actually read anything by any radical left-wing Syrians? Do you think the Syrian uprisings and revolution was/are a complete fabrication?
 
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