And next, Syria?

[CrabbedOne]

From Washington Institute Rojava's Sustainability and the PKK's Regional Strategy

Balanche is unusually optimistic. Does not look very promising to me. Swallowing a big swath amount of territory that is largely Arab is liable to choke the PKK. Pressing onto the Med as some PKK maps suggest seems a fantasy.

The water they need is in Turkey and much of the farmland of Rojova and Syria is going very arid; a key cause of the revolt. And the idiot PKK command can't help but be forever hostile to Ankara, Apo it seems was outlier with his hopes of a necessary peace or at least a hudna.

The PKK have no route to export Rojova's oil in bulk. That's actually out through Turkey. The KRG is run by Kurds long hostile to the PKK and even if that changed their pipe still runs to Turkey. The other alternative is the regime who regard that oil as theirs and are likely to extract a large price for being middle men. And PKK-regime relations are disastrously worsening. Oil smuggling will go on as it always has of course but at a fraction of the rate of overt exports.

And that all means Rojova will be dirt poor. The article reckons the PKK might Kurdify some Arab speaking tribes with Kurdish roots. I doubt if many city Kurds will choose to subsist with the PKK as masters. PKK rule polls are rather unpopular even with Syrian Kurds a far from happily united people. Better off Kurds are already fleeing Syria in high numbers. Governing is a harder test than conquest.

The YPG lacks the manpower to hold the turf it has taken without continued US CAS and they are likely to lose that once IS is pressed back. It's PKK reserves are at war in SE Turkey. The PKK's ideology will make it a target for radical Salafi. Whoever rules Damascus will also will covet the return of its lands. The expense of warfare is likely to persist.

Of course the Israelis managed to survive with enemies on all sides but they had powerful sponsors and a Med coast. Their only friends were not mountains they had left behind.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On CMEC After Murky Diplomacy, Turkey Intervenes in Syria

...
It seems almost certain that the Jarabulous intervention was preceded by some sort of understanding between Turkey and one, or more likely several, other actors in the war. What remains to be known is how far back planning went, how many nations and factions were actually in on the secret, how far the other main players will accept that Turkey and the Turkish-backed groups advance, and whether there is a deeper political dimension to the Turkish intervention. Has Erdogan agreed to trade concessions with Assad, or with Iran or Russia, or for that matter with the United States, in return for their permission to rearrange the factional landscape north of Aleppo?

The strange game of musical chairs now playing out in northern Syria, in which the Kurds currently seem to have been stuck without a seat, is typical of the state of the Syrian war today. As factions jostle for influence, the original causes of conflict slowly fade away and opportunistic deals become the new order of the day, among the insurgents and government supporters on the ground as well as among the war’s many regional actors. And as the Islamic State begins to slowly crumble and lose its grip on northern and eastern Syria, all sides prepare to move in and exploit the new openings, or at least deny them to their enemies.

With Assad’s army tied down by Turkish-backed rebels in Aleppo proper, a war of positioning in the Jarabulous-Manbij region has now clearly commenced. It will be fought by Syrians and foreigners, on the battlefield and in conference halls—and it will not be over anytime soon.

Damascus has protested Turkey infringing its sovereignty but its allies are not jumping up and down.

The fix is in. Neither the Russians nor the Iranians are much interested in Assad's quixotic plan for ruling every corner of Syria again. The latter does not support Kurdish projects of secession and sees regional Balkanisation as a Zionist plot. Moscow has supported Kurdish causes including the PKK since Soviet times but tactically often as part of a wider anti-NATO strategy. The US has always favoured Kurdish integration in existing states and often ruthlessly abandoned the Kurds when it suited.

After a bloody battle to take Manbij the Syrian PKK appears to have caused displeasure in DC by announcing it was heading for al Bab rather than Raqqa in time for the US elections like obedient mercenaries. Now the PKK's knuckles have been rapped by what looks like a successful armoured Turkish incursion at Jarabulous slicing into Rojova. The PKK promise a bloody quagmire to Turkey but have grown dependant on US CAS. DC yanks their leash Westward. IS melts away from a hopeless fight in Jarabulous.

It seems a very bad time for the PKK's to break its hudna with Damascus over Hasakah but perhaps hubris was in the air.

Kurdish projects of state building have always collapsed because "the Kurds" are as fractious a set of dialect divided peoples as "the Arabs" and pawns in the great games of other states.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On ARANews Analysts: Kurdish position more precarious after Jarabulus operation

Some disagreement here among analysts. Balanche alone thinks the PKK might still try for al Bab and unification with Afrin falling back on Russian support. Well the PKK have been eagerly cultivating that and the Russian have shown signs of wanting to split US proxies in Syria from DC. I actually don't think Russia wants to unnecessarily antagonise Turkey though. They look to be in the loop on Jarabulus tolerating a limited incursion that's specifically meant to thwart unification. I think they've sold their old PKK chums out in return for Turkish flexibility on Assad.

Rationally they should trot off obediently as their American masters demand but the PKK is unpredictable. Like IS it's revolutionary force run by a bunch of messianic fanatics not pragmatists. Rather than focussing limited resources on consolidating their success in Syria they interpreted IS attacks on Kurds in Turkey as Ankara black flag ops exactly as IS had intended. They then restarted their war there pretty much trashing all the good democratic progress the PKK aligned HDP had made on the Turkish left. This suited Erdogan and put the US in a very awkward spot with its NATO ally. Then they cross the Euphrates with a not so eager US supporting them. They've been advertising Rojova unification for some time and made very clear statements of intent recently. It seems the PKK lost hundreds of men taking Manbij very much to that end. Now they are denied Jarabulus by Ankara armour and a bunch of head chopping Salafists who just walk in and take it almost undefended with the loss of one beard. IS with a keen eye for a tipping point just hit a Kurdish wedding in Turkey. To be directed back West of the Euphrates now to bleed for Raqqa by evil capitalism's greatest state power could be seen as an unbearable humiliation.

 

[Kai]

Is not it interesting that Turkiye have seized Jarabulus city in 12 hours from ISIS while US nor any other coalition countries cant take the city since 3 years.

Are you sure you US, Britain and other countries are figthing ISIS ?

 

[teqniq]

What is actually of more interest to me is how Jarabulus was taken with very little fighting and only one casualty from the FSA strangely IS had vacated the place, almost like they had advance warning. Compare that with the fight the PKK and SDF had to liberate Manbij, odd eh?

 

[CrabbedOne]

On ARANews Analysts: Kurdish position more precarious after Jarabulus operation

Some disagreement here among analysts. Balanche alone thinks the PKK might still try for al Bab and unification with Afrin falling back on Russian support. Well the PKK have been eagerly cultivating that and the Russian have shown signs of wanting to split US proxies in Syria from DC. I actually don't think Russia wants to unnecessarily antagonise Turkey though. They look to be in the loop on Jarabulus tolerating a limited incursion that's specifically meant to thwart unification. I think they've sold their old PKK chums out in return for Turkish flexibility on Assad.

Rationally they should trot off obediently as their American masters demand but the PKK is unpredictable. Like IS it's revolutionary force run by a bunch of messianic fanatics not pragmatists. Rather than focussing limited resources on consolidating their success in Syria they interpreted IS attacks on Kurds in Turkey as Ankara black flag ops exactly as IS had intended. They then restarted their war there pretty much trashing all the good democratic progress the PKK aligned HDP had made on the Turkish left. This suited Erdogan and put the US in a very awkward spot with its NATO ally. Then they cross the Euphrates with a not so eager US supporting them. They've been advertising Rojova unification for some time and made very clear statements of intent recently. It seems the PKK lost hundreds of men taking Manbij very much to that end. Now they are denied Jarabulus by Ankara armour and a bunch of head chopping Salafists who just walk in and take it almost undefended with the loss of one beard. IS with a keen eye for a tipping point just hit a Kurdish wedding in Turkey. To be directed back West of the Euphrates now to bleed for Raqqa by evil capitalism's greatest state power could be seen as an unbearable humiliation.

 

[CrabbedOne]

IS have been saying online they pulled out of Jarabulus a week ago. So it may have been just sitting there for the taking. It probably wasn't viable to stay there with Manbij gone.

 

[teqniq]

ANALYSIS: Iran coordinating between Turkey and Assad during incursion

 

[josef1878]

IS have been saying online they pulled out of Jarabulus a week ago. So it may have been just sitting there for the taking. It probably wasn't viable to stay there with Manbij gone.

Do you read the news on Turkish TV by any chance?

 

[butchersapron]

After recent weeks of up to 40 barrel bombs a day:

Darayya Surrenders After 45 Months

It’s difficult to describe my feelings, we kept holding on for four years to the last breath. The city was destroyed over our heads and we are now not leaving a city but a pile of rubble.

The Syrian military surrounded Darayya in November 2012 after the opposition took control of the suburb and established its own council. Air attacks have escalated this year, with thousands of barrel bombs, missiles, and rockets fired as pro-Assad forces tried to overrun the suburb on the ground.

The surrender came on the fourth anniversary of a mass killing by the Syrian military, who left hundreds dead after house-to-house raids.

The Syrian military first burned the farmland needed to provide food during the siege, then occupied it this spring in their ground advance. Meanwhile, the regime blocked the UN’s attempts to get aid into the town — one token shipment was allowed in June, but it was followed within hours by more shelling. Negotiations were carried out periodically through the summer for a ceasefire in which the residents would accept regime conditions, including reoccupation by pro-Assad troops, and rebels would leave the area

Never forget: Assad or the country burns.

 

[Kai]

Terrorists PYD groups started to make false propaganda after they been banged by FSA.

 

[teqniq]

Will Turkey's Jarablus win lead to showdown with Kurds?

 

[butchersapron]

Will Turkey's Jarablus win lead to showdown with Kurds?

The brief answer is yes/no - the YPG has no chance against turkish mechanised etc forces and it will not have any US air support, not to mention none of the arab component of the SDF. The ongoing fighting in SE turkey so on will continue but there won't be a Turkish Military VS YPG straight fight - small attacks on advanced FSA (and i'm not buying these are kosher FSA on the whole - there's going to be a whole lot of turkmen and grey wolves style fascists) units possibly but nothing to lose US air support on the other side of the euphrates. That said, the US is dependent on the YPG for any attack on raqqa. A rush to afrin via al-bab avoiding the border and into FSA territory in north aleppo is most likely now whilst gobbling up as much ISIS territory north of manbij/south of jarabulus as possible then planning on lines stabilising/holding that territory as bargaining chips. But, i suppose it all depends on how much Turkey will commit.

 

[Idris2002]

The brief answer is yes/no - the YPG has no chance against turkish mechanised etc forces and it will not have any US air support, not to mention none of the arab component of the SDF. The ongoing fighting in SE turkey so on will continue but there won't be a Turkish Military VS YPG straight fight - small attacks on advanced FSA (and i'm not buying these are kosher FSA on the whole - there's going to be a whole lot of turkmen and grey wolves style fascists) units possibly but nothing to lose US air support on the other side of the euphrates. That said, the US is dependent on the YPG for any attack on raqqa. A rush to afrin via al-bab avoiding the border and into FSA territory in north aleppo is most likely now whilst gobbling up as much ISIS territory north of manbij/south of jarabulus as possible then planning on lines stabilising/holding that territory as bargaining chips. But, i suppose it all depends on how much Turkey will commit.

TAZ this morning is claiming that Erdogan is aiming at a (I presume more or less permanent) Turkish security zone in north Syria.

 

[inva]

TAZ this morning is claiming that Syria is aiming at a (I presume more or less permanent) security zone in north Syria.

did you mean to write syria twice?

 

[Idris2002]

did you mean to write syria twice?

Sadly no.

 

[butchersapron]

TAZ this morning is claiming that Syria is aiming at a (I presume more or less permanent) security zone in north Syria.

How are they going to do that with no forces at all in North syria? I presume you mean Turkey is aiming at that? This has been a plan mooted for the last two years. Blimey, was this post really that long ago?

Edit: no it wasn't. Oops.

 

[Kai]

This is just beginning. Turkish Army will seize Aleppo, Raqqa, Mosul too within a few months. These areas will be states of Turkiye by public voting.

 

[butchersapron]

Can we ignore this clown please?

 

[Idris2002]

How are they going to do that with no forces at all in North syria? I presume you mean Turkey is aiming at that? This has been a plan mooted for the last two years. Blimey, was this post really that long ago.

You presume correctly.

 

[frogwoman]

This is just beginning. Turkish Army will seize Aleppo, Raqqa, Mosul too within a few months. These areas will be states of Turkiye by public voting.

 

[CrabbedOne]

...
The other option of course would be to call for the help of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, but relations between the PYD and the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are also extremely poor. If a Kurdish controlled entity is what the PYD is aiming for, then it seems like that the only support it will get in the region will be from other Kurds. Ultimately the PYD needs to do something to heal the rift with the KDP to get at least some form of outside assistance.

The PYD cannot face its current predicament in isolation. The project for Rojava is not at risk of being over, but if the PYD does not begin to recalculate its regional and security policies, then it could risk losing much of its gains over the past two years. Having a serious conversation with its US backers to ascertain red lines is the first step. The second step would be to go and make some friends in the neighborhood, or else things could get a lot worse in the near future.

Article suggests the PKK has over reached. Too many enemies, not one loyal friend. Well this could have been much worse if they'd united their cantons and were scrabbling with less than 60K troops to hold all that territory. They didn't have the muscle to hold even Kobane against IS until they gained US air support.

There are only two real choices of ally for the PKK in Syria, Damascus or Ankara. Going cap in hand to the kleptocratic Barzani clan, a Turkish vassal, may be worse than seeking terms with Ankara as Apo did, monkeys and organ grinders innit. I would not count on Kurdish solidarity but the KRG does provide an example.

It seemed farfetched in the 90s that Irbil would have such a close and profitable relationship with Ankara. The KRG is proof that Ankara can live with unthreatening Kurdish autonomy and even the rhetoric of Kurdish statehood that Apo once dreamed of. Now Ankara watches the KRG's Iraqi land grabs with a benevolent eye eager for Kirkuk's oil. The pleas of Pesh oppressed Turkmen and Sunni Arabs are ignored.

The PKK in Syria still have a position of relative strength. The hostile often Salafist rebels are preoccupied with toppling Assad, the hudna with the regime may be failing but the PKK have good relations with the US and Russia, a cooler channel to the Iranians, captured oil resources and lots of fawning Western MSM PR.

Erdogan has said there'll be no talking until the PKK disarm but he's nothing if not an agile politician. The command of the units fighting the PKK in Turkey self decapitated in the recent mutiny. A lot of officers who objected to talking peace with Apo are now banged up. The PKK's war in SE Turkey is futile and politically self defeating in Turkey; it's hurt the promising HDP. The PKK should focus on consolidation in Syria and finally going legit. Given a slice of Turkish water resources and pipe to run their hydrocarbons to market Rojava could be a prosperous buffer zone with the failed state(s) of Syria. A tranche of the strategic depth Ankara hoped for in Syria before the Arab Spring. Other territories might come their way in time. All the PKK have to do is abandon their junkyard dog hostility to the Turkish state, Rojava will likely fail otherwise.

 

[CrabbedOne]

I think all the Turks wanted here was to head off the creation of a hostile PKK statelet that also would practically have extinguished the Northern revolt. Moscow has made deals with Tel Aviv that permit the IAF a deconflicted open season on HA arms movements in Syria. I'd guess something similar is now in place with Ankara over the PKK territorial expansion. The Russians probably wouldn't tolerate anything but a shallow security zone reclaimed from IS territory with Turkish 155s rolled forward to give wider fire control. That will do to stop the unification of Rojava and that will come at a political price which is probably a softer line on Assad. That'll be just fine with Teheran as well, they've often collaborated with the Turks to thwart the PKK when it got to big for its boots.

The Turks really can't afford to provoke Moscow into a shooting war that the US does not want. Most analysts reckon the Turkish Air Force would be shot out of the sky by superior Russian kit. Now much of TAF leadership is getting the full Midnight Express in clink it's out of the question. For the Turkish army rolling unopposed into Jarabulus is nice little morale booster after the mutiny but Erdogan could face problems with other parts of the army officer corps if he gets it up to its neck on the ground in Syria. Slapping the PKK or IS down is one thing but involvement in the revolt isn't popular in Turkey.

 

[Kai]

Turkish Airforces shot US-Western backed PYD at southern Jarabulus who do not heed the warnings to leave the region.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TIMEP The Great Game in Northern Syria

...
Equally important, the rebel involvement in the Turkish-led campaign undermined the YPG as the only formidable force against the Islamic State. Reliance on the YPG, even as the Kurds used the US support to establish a “federal system” in northern Syria, was not a sustainable policy. The group is perceived as an ally with the regime by locals living under the Islamic State and by the rebels, especially after the group fought the rebels as they attempted to seize regime bases in 2012. Regardless of what happens next, the damage has already been done for the YPG. It is no longer the only group capable of fighting the Islamic State, and is now less likely to have a lead role in the battle to retake Raqqa.

Overall, the Turkish intervention is an opportunity. It can help to channel the rebels’ energy to fight the Islamic State in Aleppo and eastern Syria. It can also be the start of a different chapter in that region, as both Turkey and Russia become directly involved on the ground.

Well that's an optimistic spin on it.

You could look at it differently US policy in Syria centring on a fight with IS using the largely Kurdish PKK as foot soldiers finally ran into it's limits. Will Turkey be as interested in finishing off IS as it's old war with the PKK? I tend to think neither US ally has Raqqa as a priority. Will Ankrara be promoting another front of Salafists like JaF or its KDP allies to roll them up? Is this just the war in SE Turkey leaking into Syria?

 

[teqniq]

US, Russia agree on preserving Syria's territorial unity, reject Kurdish Rojava project - ARA News

Moscow doesn’t want the Kurds to be too strong or too weak: Russian analyst - ARA News

 

[teqniq]

Alongside reports of the SDF disabling/destroying a Turkish tank, and killing a Turkish soldier

Deaths as Turkish air strikes hit targets in Syria

Turkish shelling and air strikes have killed at least 20 civilians in Syria on the fifth day of an incursion against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group and Kurdish forces, according to a monitoring group....

Still no sign of Turkish forces engaging IS, not that this should come as a surprise to anyone.

e2a ffs

 

[DownwardDog]

Most analysts reckon the Turkish Air Force would be shot out of the sky by superior Russian kit.

Which Russian "kit" is superior to the Turkish F-16C Block 50+/AIM-120C/Peace Eagle combination?

 

[CrabbedOne]

In TDS Turkey-backed Syrian rebels aim for Manbij city, commander says

To take it from the YPG that is.

 

[Kai]

Alongside reports of the SDF disabling/destroying a Turkish tank, and killing a Turkish soldier

Deaths as Turkish air strikes hit targets in Syria



Still no sign of Turkish forces engaging IS, not that this should come as a surprise to anyone.

What is SDF ? Another cover to legalize your terrorists ? So the Turkish tank was not shot by YPG but shot by SDF. Do you really think your self clever persons ?


Why your PYD guys (who is figthing ISIS) dont leave the region despite there is no ISIS guys anymore and its controlled by the locals of the region which is supported by Turkish Army ? Maybe because of your terrorists are trying to grab someone's lands ?