Kai
New Member
You can follow your YPG guys from this Twitter account >>> İhanete Bedel (@ihanetebedel) on Twitter
And next, Syria?
- Thread starter Idris2002
- Start date
teqniq
DisMembered
It's not very nice news I know but it's news nevertheless and it's of a piece with their claims to wanting to take Manbij. I really hope the US does some arm-twisting here as I think they are in a position to do so but part of the problem is a lack of joined-up thinking on their part. On the one hand you have the CIA supporting the FSA and the Pentagon supporting the Kurds, also they have Turkey as a NATO member to consider. I saw a piece yesterday too that had Lerov and Biden making a joint declaration on Syria saying in effect that it should remain as one state (can't find it atm sorry). This would pretty much put paid to Kurdish aspirations for an independent statelet.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
On Syria Comment “Turkey’s Syria Intervention,” by Joshua Landis
Landis not very optimistic. Guesses the Turks will be stuck in Northern Syria fighting the PKK and maybe some other groups as the FSA flagged rebels they are backing up by Jarabulus have a record of being not much use. That Ankara has accepted Assad's survival at least in the medium term in return for blocking the PKK drive for unification. That the PKK won't drop that ambition. That like the US the Turks think there's no real prospect of a rebel victory. It will just prolong the suffering in Syria.
I'd say it's been a hopeless meat grinder for some time.
Landis not very optimistic. Guesses the Turks will be stuck in Northern Syria fighting the PKK and maybe some other groups as the FSA flagged rebels they are backing up by Jarabulus have a record of being not much use. That Ankara has accepted Assad's survival at least in the medium term in return for blocking the PKK drive for unification. That the PKK won't drop that ambition. That like the US the Turks think there's no real prospect of a rebel victory. It will just prolong the suffering in Syria.
I'd say it's been a hopeless meat grinder for some time.
teqniq
DisMembered
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
In The Daily Sabah YPG will be targeted if they don't retreat, FM Çavuşoğlu says
CENTCOM leaning to Ankara.
Elsewhere in the WSJ they seem rather worried SDF embedded US SF will get caught in the middle. You know the ones who were tactfully wearing YPG insignia at one point. I expect there's a great deal of shouting down the blower going on in the CIA's MOC in Turkey.
The Daily Sabah, always balanced and fair. As if Ankara would ever do anything to hamper the PKK's efforts against IS.
CENTCOM leaning to Ankara.
Elsewhere in the WSJ they seem rather worried SDF embedded US SF will get caught in the middle. You know the ones who were tactfully wearing YPG insignia at one point. I expect there's a great deal of shouting down the blower going on in the CIA's MOC in Turkey.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
I doubt they let him near children anymore.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
And Iranian strategic interests are mostly about consolidation down South as well.
Kai
New Member
The page below is from US National Security Website, they closed this page after a short time they started to support PYD terrorists, when they realized they officially declare them as "terrorist" in their website. Just read the parts I got into a red box.
Kai
New Member
Stealing lands is not "liberating" somewhere. The locals of the region is not PYD, these areas belong to Arabs and Turkomens. They want PYD to leave their region.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
The US line that the PYD is separate from the PKK is a legal fiction like SF not being essentially PIRA's political wing. In this case its not just a nicety they would be breaking US law in supporting a correctly designated terrorist organisation otherwise.
I don't know of any regional wonks who actually believe this handy construction. The name of the PYD's statelet is a giveaway: Rojova means "The West". There's some political firewalls but its military is part of the same command chain. PKK supporters in Turkey often make no distinction whatever. It's just the organisations area of operation on the other side of a line in the sand. The PKK has always had a Syrian component and has become more Syrian centric lately. Rather a lot of Turkish PKK members fight in Syria as well. Syrian Kurds complain about all the Turkish being babbled by PKK fighters.
The US taunted by IS from Syria and with its Turkish ally refusing to act had few options but to back the PKK in Syria. It just unfolded from Kobane. Unfortunately the legalistic pretence here extended to not dealing with the PKK as a whole diplomatically which would have been the sensible approach. Trying to tamp down what have turned out to be very reasonable Turkish fears of PKK malign intent in Turkey and facilitate one of the few once promising ME peace processes. This would have slowed down the fight against IS but neglecting it did neither party any favours. Both now feel pretty betrayed and with some cause and are now at each other throats in Syria which does not even serve US tactical goals.
Edited: SF very hairy but certainly political.
I don't know of any regional wonks who actually believe this handy construction. The name of the PYD's statelet is a giveaway: Rojova means "The West". There's some political firewalls but its military is part of the same command chain. PKK supporters in Turkey often make no distinction whatever. It's just the organisations area of operation on the other side of a line in the sand. The PKK has always had a Syrian component and has become more Syrian centric lately. Rather a lot of Turkish PKK members fight in Syria as well. Syrian Kurds complain about all the Turkish being babbled by PKK fighters.
The US taunted by IS from Syria and with its Turkish ally refusing to act had few options but to back the PKK in Syria. It just unfolded from Kobane. Unfortunately the legalistic pretence here extended to not dealing with the PKK as a whole diplomatically which would have been the sensible approach. Trying to tamp down what have turned out to be very reasonable Turkish fears of PKK malign intent in Turkey and facilitate one of the few once promising ME peace processes. This would have slowed down the fight against IS but neglecting it did neither party any favours. Both now feel pretty betrayed and with some cause and are now at each other throats in Syria which does not even serve US tactical goals.
Edited: SF very hairy but certainly political.
Last edited:
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
I think you'll find that SF was PIRA's political wing, CrabbedOne.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
On Reuters Turkey Deputy PM says not in war, no plan to stay in Syria: NTV
Well that's the posture the Russians took initially as well.
Well that's the posture the Russians took initially as well.
Mordi
Amoral adventurist
WSJ article can be read here gives the Washington spin on Turkey/US communication problems.
One interesting point is
Which to my reading implies that the vetted list of rebel groups that the CIA and Turkey were happy to send in weren't quite 'moderate' enough for the White House - Send them weapons sure, just don't let them take hostages we give a damn about.
One interesting point is
WSJ said:
Which to my reading implies that the vetted list of rebel groups that the CIA and Turkey were happy to send in weren't quite 'moderate' enough for the White House - Send them weapons sure, just don't let them take hostages we give a damn about.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
In Gulf News Russia offers to send ground troops to Syria’s Aleppo
I tend to believe Erdogan traded being allowed to attack the PKK at Jarabulus for something. I doubt it was Aleppo, it looks more like the sort of looser stance on Assad the Kremlin has persuaded the US to adopt. Ankara needs some military leverage to manage the Kremlin the counter-siege provides that and it is still supported. The Kremlin has been focused on diplomacy. They are bigging up Putin the international peacemaker not just as Vlad of Arabia. They've been less eager than Teheran to fully take the city IRGC assets are bleeding for. A protracted siege gives the Kremlin a little leverage over an Assad clan Russia has always found stubbornly independent. It also would be very Russian just to see Aleppo as a big Jihadi KZ; draining the swamp in Idlib.
Not clear if the PKK's diligent courtship of the Kremlin simply failed or they decided they had Uncle Sam over a barrel enough for US CAS to get them all the way from the Euphrates to Afrin. It did look like the latter: the tail wagging a reluctant American dog. Loudly announcing they were headed for al Bab not Raqqa after taking Manbij may have been a miscalculation. I detect genuine US displeasure not just pandering to Turkey.
As Russia-Turkey relations improved after the Turkish mutiny it is likely the Russians saw less need of the PKK in its old Soviet era role as an anti-Turkey/NATO pawn. And this move usefully unbalances US anti-IS policy in Syria. Always good to have Kerry running between spinning plates.
A little too tidy I think.
I tend to believe Erdogan traded being allowed to attack the PKK at Jarabulus for something. I doubt it was Aleppo, it looks more like the sort of looser stance on Assad the Kremlin has persuaded the US to adopt. Ankara needs some military leverage to manage the Kremlin the counter-siege provides that and it is still supported. The Kremlin has been focused on diplomacy. They are bigging up Putin the international peacemaker not just as Vlad of Arabia. They've been less eager than Teheran to fully take the city IRGC assets are bleeding for. A protracted siege gives the Kremlin a little leverage over an Assad clan Russia has always found stubbornly independent. It also would be very Russian just to see Aleppo as a big Jihadi KZ; draining the swamp in Idlib.
Not clear if the PKK's diligent courtship of the Kremlin simply failed or they decided they had Uncle Sam over a barrel enough for US CAS to get them all the way from the Euphrates to Afrin. It did look like the latter: the tail wagging a reluctant American dog. Loudly announcing they were headed for al Bab not Raqqa after taking Manbij may have been a miscalculation. I detect genuine US displeasure not just pandering to Turkey.
As Russia-Turkey relations improved after the Turkish mutiny it is likely the Russians saw less need of the PKK in its old Soviet era role as an anti-Turkey/NATO pawn. And this move usefully unbalances US anti-IS policy in Syria. Always good to have Kerry running between spinning plates.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
In The WSJ Turkish Offensive on Islamic State in Syria Caught U.S. Off Guard
Long talked of US-TSK operation shelved when Russia upped it presence. US wanting to get its Kurds back East of the Euphrates and embed US SF with Turkish forces. Some characteristic Obama Whitehouse dithering over safety of US SF out among AQ linked rebels. Then Turkey launches into Jarabulus unilaterally taking it much more easily than anticipated. Sold as joint move by DC and Ankara but really the initiative is with the latter.
One thing to remember here is having SF embedded with a force isn't just a means of support it's often also about surveillance and operational control. You can see how this went wrong rather quickly. It might have just been swapping out a questionably sustainable SDF holding force to be replaced by rebels backed by TSK armour. Ended up having more the look of a typical big sweeping TSK search and destroy anti-PKK mission.
Long talked of US-TSK operation shelved when Russia upped it presence. US wanting to get its Kurds back East of the Euphrates and embed US SF with Turkish forces. Some characteristic Obama Whitehouse dithering over safety of US SF out among AQ linked rebels. Then Turkey launches into Jarabulus unilaterally taking it much more easily than anticipated. Sold as joint move by DC and Ankara but really the initiative is with the latter.
One thing to remember here is having SF embedded with a force isn't just a means of support it's often also about surveillance and operational control. You can see how this went wrong rather quickly. It might have just been swapping out a questionably sustainable SDF holding force to be replaced by rebels backed by TSK armour. Ended up having more the look of a typical big sweeping TSK search and destroy anti-PKK mission.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
On TSG IntelBrief The Limits of U.S. Influence in Syria
Compares the dilemma with the PKK and Turkey to the Muhj war back in Afghanistan. As this says it's a little different but there are similarities.
The proxy war in Afghanistan was in part payback for Vietnam. There's an element in Syria of trying to contain Iran after taking Baghdad had the reverse effect to that hoped for and the Iranians expanded their sphere of influence. Post Church Commission Langley's proxy war with the USSR in Afghanistan was part sponsored by the Saudis, a major player in Syria but against Iran not the Reds. They matched the US dollar for dollar in funding the Muhj. Unlike in Syria the CIA had very little direct contact with the Muhj but again it was a rag tag constellation of groups some extremely radical. The Soviets called the Muhj Islamo-Fascists and much of what they got up to did resemble future Taliban behaviour. Like Syria's rebels the Muhj faced a brutal regime and were widely romanticised as freedom fighters in our press. The stout Reagan men in Langley at that time saw them as fellow Holy warriors. Not a mistake today's CIA would be prone to but their vetting of rebel groups has sometimes been inaccurate. You might consider there is a similar path dependant blindness around about the PKK's likely role in a post-IS Syria that mostly opposes their goals. It would have taken a great leap of imagination to see the Muhj war leading to 9-11 figuring out that Rojova would likely be a war zone after displacing IS isn't as difficult.
In Afghanistan the middleman that kept the CIA at an arms length was Pakistani intelligence, the ISI. Here you could compare the Pakistani interest in Afghanistan to that of Turkey in Syria. A righteous Jihad for strategic depth. Turkey lacks Pakistan's very real existential dilemma with India, its fears of Kurdish separatism are real enough though.
Erdogan contrasted with Pakistan's Zia-ul-Haq would make an interesting study. It would make the former look like a very tame pussy cat.
Compares the dilemma with the PKK and Turkey to the Muhj war back in Afghanistan. As this says it's a little different but there are similarities.
The proxy war in Afghanistan was in part payback for Vietnam. There's an element in Syria of trying to contain Iran after taking Baghdad had the reverse effect to that hoped for and the Iranians expanded their sphere of influence. Post Church Commission Langley's proxy war with the USSR in Afghanistan was part sponsored by the Saudis, a major player in Syria but against Iran not the Reds. They matched the US dollar for dollar in funding the Muhj. Unlike in Syria the CIA had very little direct contact with the Muhj but again it was a rag tag constellation of groups some extremely radical. The Soviets called the Muhj Islamo-Fascists and much of what they got up to did resemble future Taliban behaviour. Like Syria's rebels the Muhj faced a brutal regime and were widely romanticised as freedom fighters in our press. The stout Reagan men in Langley at that time saw them as fellow Holy warriors. Not a mistake today's CIA would be prone to but their vetting of rebel groups has sometimes been inaccurate. You might consider there is a similar path dependant blindness around about the PKK's likely role in a post-IS Syria that mostly opposes their goals. It would have taken a great leap of imagination to see the Muhj war leading to 9-11 figuring out that Rojova would likely be a war zone after displacing IS isn't as difficult.
In Afghanistan the middleman that kept the CIA at an arms length was Pakistani intelligence, the ISI. Here you could compare the Pakistani interest in Afghanistan to that of Turkey in Syria. A righteous Jihad for strategic depth. Turkey lacks Pakistan's very real existential dilemma with India, its fears of Kurdish separatism are real enough though.
Erdogan contrasted with Pakistan's Zia-ul-Haq would make an interesting study. It would make the former look like a very tame pussy cat.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
On ISW Turkish Incursion in Northern Syria Signals Turning Point in Anti-ISIS Fight: August 30, 2016
ISW suggests here the Turks might seek to undermine the SDF's role in a future Raqqa operation. The TSK is certainly capable of lunging at Raqqa but I doubt the Turks will be daft enough to get that deeply embroiled in Syria. They had a clear national interest in preventing the unification of Rojova. A hostile IS rocketing Turkish border towns had also become problematic. It's not apparent to me why they would devote a lot of resources to pursuing IS that far from their border. It's unlikely to have much effect on their domestic problems with IS. I don't think Erdogan feels a need or obligation to be in Obama's good books. The Turks might well prefer to let the PKK waste its resources taking it for Washington. The PKK who have far more reason to loath IS but have seemed a little reluctant to bleed for Raqqa. Being thwarted by the old Turkish enemy and effectively sold out by the US must surely have hit morale.
This political mess round Manbij would cast some doubt on the SDF taking Raqqa; it was meant to be a model for that. Raqqa was a rather Loyalist area with local tribes late to switch sides to the rising and that was more out of pragmatism than preference as the SAA lacked the resources to hold the Divisional HQ there. The disorganised rising then lost it to IS when they appeared stronger. There's no guarantee the Arab rebels backed by Turkey would be any more popular there than PKK's allies in the SDF. As I recall at least one mob in the latter is from Raqqa. But what Manbij highlights is lack of unity amongst Sunni Arab groups we hope will act as a holding force. The rebels are liable to end up fighting each other and the PKK. This is something IS or AQ could easily exploit; they have in the past.
Interesting bit of politics, the SDF were probably always going to face problems in Manbij as there was a rival rebel military council there before IS took it that felt they were the legitimate lords of the place. PKK policy is to have their place men running things. The Turks roll into Jarabulus and rebel opposition comes out of the woodwork in the Manbij countryside.
ISW suggests here the Turks might seek to undermine the SDF's role in a future Raqqa operation. The TSK is certainly capable of lunging at Raqqa but I doubt the Turks will be daft enough to get that deeply embroiled in Syria. They had a clear national interest in preventing the unification of Rojova. A hostile IS rocketing Turkish border towns had also become problematic. It's not apparent to me why they would devote a lot of resources to pursuing IS that far from their border. It's unlikely to have much effect on their domestic problems with IS. I don't think Erdogan feels a need or obligation to be in Obama's good books. The Turks might well prefer to let the PKK waste its resources taking it for Washington. The PKK who have far more reason to loath IS but have seemed a little reluctant to bleed for Raqqa. Being thwarted by the old Turkish enemy and effectively sold out by the US must surely have hit morale.
This political mess round Manbij would cast some doubt on the SDF taking Raqqa; it was meant to be a model for that. Raqqa was a rather Loyalist area with local tribes late to switch sides to the rising and that was more out of pragmatism than preference as the SAA lacked the resources to hold the Divisional HQ there. The disorganised rising then lost it to IS when they appeared stronger. There's no guarantee the Arab rebels backed by Turkey would be any more popular there than PKK's allies in the SDF. As I recall at least one mob in the latter is from Raqqa. But what Manbij highlights is lack of unity amongst Sunni Arab groups we hope will act as a holding force. The rebels are liable to end up fighting each other and the PKK. This is something IS or AQ could easily exploit; they have in the past.
CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
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