30 years since Falklands War

[Hocus Eye.]

So far they are hitting dry wells when drilling for the black stuff (so I've heard from a moaning client who's shares are yo yo ing)

May change the picture a bit if the FIs only natural resource is Penguin guanno

From my memory of reading news they were drilling for oil and struck water.

 

[likesfish]

well at least half the population of the 6 counties REALLY REALLY want to remain British in a very violent and not very british attitude 30 years of bombing and murders didn't really change their mind on that score. So changing the sovereignty of the 6 counties might happen in the next 60 years but I wouldn't place a bet on it. unless I was an international hedge fund but then they are pretty fucking hopeless

 

[Deareg]

well at least half the population of the 6 counties REALLY REALLY want to remain British in a very violent and not very british attitude 30 years of bombing and murders didn't really change their mind on that score. So changing the sovereignty of the 6 counties might happen in the next 60 years but I wouldn't place a bet on it. unless I was an international hedge fund but then they are pretty fucking hopeless

It is an artificial majority, that was maintained my oppression and discrimination.

 

[likesfish]

yes but its is a fact on the ground.
its not going to change any time soon the Southern goverment could not hold it if things kicked off.
The British wouldn't be stupid enough to let them try

 

[frogwoman]

Hello Urban... Be gentle...

My earliest memories were of the invasion, as a kid in Buenos Aires. Dad was a UK diplomat; three days to pack and fuck off. My first day at school, aged 4, in San Isidro was devoted to Las Malvinas. All kids had the cause drummed into them as an article of faith, including me. The adjustment to life in Orpington that followed, in the fever of anti-Argie sentiment, was a tad difficult to say the least...

This won't go away any time soon, especially in the minds of the people of Argentina. The obsession is less about what Falklands/Malvinas is, but what it means in the context of Argentine identity and history.

The war was a horrendous tragedy that fucked up the lives of those left alive in its wake in both countries. The UK had spent years, from the early '60's, attempting some sort of settlement that would eventually mean effective transfer of sovereignty to Argentina. "Leaseback", "Condominium" and other initiatives I recall... all roundly vetoed by the Kelpers. Successive administrations found themselves in the position of trying to sell these deals to the Falklanders and failing.

Admiral Anaya felt that a swift capture of the islands would be a fait accompli. "Plan Goa" was its planning name (Argentine commanders studied the Indian capture of Goa from Portugal, a classic anti-imperialist move that barely caused a ruffle at the UN) and they believed world opinion would largely support them. It condemned many young, illiterate conscripts to death, PTSD and public shame.

Ultimately, the right to self-determination of the inhabitants, enshrined in the UN charter, fucked the Argentine case at the UN and allowed Reagan to support the UK (diplomatically and materially). This has had the end result of locking Britain (after the war ended) into defending the place in perpetuity regardless of the cost. Argentina want the Malvinas (and always will, it's not a subject you can discuss rationally without nationalist emotion taking over in Argentina) but I would hope that the methods of the fascist junta are now long gone and that diplomatic pressure is the only viable route they would choose...

This ain't over. My only hope is that armed conflict is not an option.

That's a really interesting first post. Keep posting more x

 

[Hocus Eye.]

well at least half the population of the 6 counties REALLY REALLY want to remain British in a very violent and not very british attitude 30 years of bombing and murders didn't really change their mind on that score. So changing the sovereignty of the 6 counties might happen in the next 60 years but I wouldn't place a bet on it. unless I was an international hedge fund but then they are pretty fucking hopeless

That leaves the other half though. Mind you I don't think the republicans would want the relative poverty of the South for themselves currently. The Northern Ireland protestants would be disappointed to find what the mainland English think of them though. Most people on this side of the Irish Sea have had little sympathy with the Northern Ireland Protestants and just wish they would go away.

Southern Ireland from what I read doesn't want political control of the 'Six Counties' either at the moment. They have their republic and don't want to have to deal with the troublesome 'prods'. At some point though no matter how long it takes, this last of the old British colonies must be released in some way. The Loyalists call themselves that but over here we could do without their misplaced loyalty which is to the Crown and Establishment, not to the ordinary English.

 

[Deareg]

yes but its is a fact on the ground.
its not going to change any time soon the Southern goverment could not hold it if things kicked off.
The British wouldn't be stupid enough to let them try

You are probably right on 1 and 3 but as for two, I don't think the loyalists would have the balls for it without British backup, just like the AWB in South Africa.

 

[Deareg]

That leaves the other half though. Mind you I don't think the republicans would want the relative poverty of the South for themselves currently. The Northern Ireland protestants would be disappointed to find what the mainland English think of them though. Most people on this side of the Irish Sea have had little sympathy with the Northern Ireland Protestants and just wish they would go away.

Southern Ireland from what I read doesn't want political control of the 'Six Counties' either at the moment. They have their republic and don't want to have to deal with the troublesome 'prods'. At some point though no matter how long it takes, this last of the old British colonies must be released in some way. The Loyalists call themselves that but over here we could do without their misplaced loyalty which is to the Crown and Establishment, not to the ordinary English.

They have no loyalty to anyone, not even each other.

 

[Streathamite]

Argentina want the Malvinas (and always will, it's not a subject you can discuss rationally without nationalist emotion taking over in Argentina) but I would hope that the methods of the fascist junta are now long gone and that diplomatic pressure is the only viable route they would choose...

that's my understanding too

 

[Andrew Hertford]

the people who live in the falklands today (and back then) know no other home - born there raised there etc. Why do you not believe sufficently in the principle of self-determination to make their wishes, their rights, the main issue, rather than Argentinian national ego? (and it is ego - all my extensive firsthand experience of that country, people and society has convinced me of that - they have no idea of what they'd actually do with the place). Don't thay have any rights?
Finally, do you realise that if your views had prevailed 30 years ago, it would have meant abandoning some 3,000 people to the tender mercies of a fascist regime which by then had killed c.30,000, tortured thousands more, which only invaded as a last desperate gambit to save a crumbling regime, and which would have been kept in power for at least a decade more if they'd managed to hang on to the Falklands?

I don't believe that the islanders were actually in much danger, the Argentineans had offered them safe passage out and (here this is only from memory) guaranteed the safety of those who chose to stay. It certainly wouldn't have been in their interests to have treated them badly.

It's difficult to argue against the principle of self determination and no one could doubt the brutality of Galteri and his mob, but to sacrifice almost a thousand lives, 255 of them British, in pursuit of the self determination of a couple of thousand souls who's lives were not actually at risk, was in my view unjustified.

And what in my view puts a lie to 'self determination' being the main reason for our going to war in the first place, as well as our continuing inflexible stance on the Falklands, is the hypocrisy of successive British governments both before and after the conflict when it comes to the self determination of other peoples, like the Chagos Islanders who are still fighting the British government for the right to return home after WE kicked them off their islands between 1967 and 1973. They may be similar in number as well as also being British subjects, but of course unlike the Falkland Islanders they're not white and they don't speak English.

 

[DotCommunist]

it would be nice if britain and argentinia could perhaps reach some sort of power sharing agreement and welcome which ever mad bastards from argentinia wanted to come settle into a community of shared values and mutual co-operation, forgetting not the blood spilled but recognizing it s the folly that makes fools of brothers in arms. With a new cultural influx the islanders could become something unique, not british, not argentine but a community that has the best of both cultures. Bend the swords into ploughshares and move on from the memory of when a shrivelled old hag sent people to fight against the conscripted boys from a mad evil dictator. It would be nice, it would be heartwarming. Never happen though.

 

[DownwardDog]

From my memory of reading news they were drilling for oil and struck water.

Nobody has ever found a drop of oil in the Falklands. Although I have been told by someone who should probably know that the geology looks 'favourable'.

 

[DownwardDog]

The next window of opportunity for the Argentinians may come when we have two aircraft carriers but no aircraft to put on them.

The carriers or lack thereof is largely irrelevant now that islands have a 9,000ft runway. That would make the FI very much easier to defend and reinforce than in 1982. If the Argentinians successfully invade we won't be getting them back ever.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Make both them and Northern Ireland independent and piss both sides off. It's only fair.

 

[Bob_the_lost]

The carriers or lack thereof is largely irrelevant now that islands have a 9,000ft runway. That would make the FI very much easier to defend and reinforce than in 1982. If the Argentinians successfully invade we won't be getting them back ever.

Based on the assumption that they don't manage to take it in the first place. There's only 4 Eurofighers there, the Argentinians have enough aircraft that they could just run the Eurofighters out of missiles, crater the runway then storm in and take the island with infantry, tanks and so on. If that happens then we can't take it back. In fact it's worse now, once you have the island you've got an all up airfield to use to defend it from.

 

[Streathamite]

I don't believe that the islanders were actually in much danger, the Argentineans had offered them safe passage out and (here this is only from memory) guaranteed the safety of those who chose to stay. It certainly wouldn't have been in their interests to have treated them badly.

and you'd have placed much faith in the promises of a regime which dealt with its' opponents by dropping them out of airplanes, and which had torture jails the length of the country, and which would have been made invincible by a successful, unchallenged conquest? I wouldn't.

And what in my view puts a lie to 'self determination' being the main reason for our going to war in the first place, as well as our continuing inflexible stance on the Falklands, is the hypocrisy of successive British governments both before and after the conflict when it comes to the self determination of other peoples, like the Chagos Islanders who are still fighting the British government for the right to return home after WE kicked them off their islands between 1967 and 1973. They may be similar in number as well as also being British subjects, but of course unlike the Falkland Islanders they're not white and they don't speak English

Our treatment of the chagossians is disgusting, but 2 wrongs don't make a right

 

[Casually Red]

What about Britain's claim to the 6 counties?

lo and behold its another bit of someone elses country theyve decided to half inch , just like Las Malvinas.

 

[Casually Red]

[quote="Streathamite,

the people who live in the falklands today (and back then) know no other home - born there raised there etc.

the argentinians made no effort to expel them , and dont call for their expulsion

Why do you not believe sufficently in the principle of self-determination to make their wishes, their rights, the main issue, rather than Argentinian national ego?

because firstly I dont dismiss the issue of sovereignty vs colonialism as some dagos ego . And because I dont agree with the right of a small minority to have a veto over a nations national sovereignty , and thereby permit a national territory to be divided or disrupted by a colonial power . In fact Im of the belief its against international law . Ive told you I would oppose this self determination "principle" if it was pakistanis in Bradford demanding its annexation, or even Yorkshire independence .

(and it is ego - all my extensive firsthand experience of that country, people and society has convinced me of that - they have no idea of what they'd actually do with the place). Don't thay have any rights?

of course they have rights , but in my view it doesnt have the right to disrupt Argentinian territorial unity

Finally, do you realise that if your views had prevailed 30 years ago, it would have meant abandoning some 3,000 people to the tender mercies of a vicious, tyrannous regime which by then had killed c.30,000, tortured thousands more,

the one Britian was supplying with military equipment ? While supplying Pinochet with the same and proclaiming him an ally ? Good enough for the dagos but not our chaps ?

which only invaded as a last desperate gambit to save a crumbling regime, and which would have been kept in power for at least a decade more if they'd managed to hang on to the Falklands?

do you realise its likely therell be another conflict in the future , and that next time round its unlikely Argentina will stand alone in Latin America ? The issue as to whether or not Argentinians supported or opposed their regime is a matter for Argentinians . To try and make the argument they were better off with Britian nicking their turf, which they wouldnt know what to do with anyway , when Britian was one of those happily propping these regimes up in the first place is quite absurd in my view .

The best thing all round for everyone is for Britian to assent to enter into talks at the UN and decide the issue there under international law . Its also better for the islanders themselves if they can start having access to the Argentinian mainland and a fresh supply of DNA before it turns into Royston fucking Vasey . Even the US state department has now begun openly referring to the place as Las Malvinas . The writings on the wall . Better to sort it out in a dignfied fashion than another war .

 

[CyberRose]

The best thing all round for everyone is for Britian to assent to enter into talks at the UN and decide the issue there under international law . Its also better for the islanders themselves if they can start having access to the Argentinian mainland and a fresh supply of DNA before it turns into Royston fucking Vasey . Even the US state department has now begun openly referring to the place as Las Malvinas . The writings on the wall . Better to sort it out in a dignfied fashion than another war .

So you want everyone but the people who live there to have a say in the future of the Falklands?

Do you also think the British and Irish governments should the only ones to decide Northern Ireland's future? Sod what the people who live there think...

 

[CyberRose]

With a new cultural influx the islanders could become something unique, not british, not argentine but a community that has the best of both cultures.

You mean like fish and chips with chimichurri sauce?

 

[binka]

So you want everyone but the people who live there to have a say in the future of the Falklands?

Do you also think the British and Irish governments should the only ones to decide Northern Ireland's future? Sod what the people who live there think...

casually red doesn't give a fuck about the people who live there, he is only interested in the hurt feelings of the argentine ruling class

 

[Giles]

not for little gangs of colonists pining for the mother country while thousands of miles away on another countrys territory , no . Id have just as little time for a bunch of people of pakistani descent arguing for the same thing in Bradford . Or of Irish descent arguing for it in Boston or Kilburn .

I view the British claim as a colonial hangover extremely detrimental to international relationships and a provocation to all those in Latin America who hold Bolivarian principles , and view the argentine claim to their coastal territory as the legitmate one .

When you say "coastal territory" in fact it is 300 miles or so off the coast of Argentina. This is by no means "coastal territory".

Why not let the inhabitants vote on who they wish to belong to?

Giles..

 

[Streathamite]

the argentinians made no effort to expel them , and dont call for their expulsion

So, you would have been quite happy to consign the falkland islanders to the tender mercies of a brutal, murderous regime which - I repeat - had killed 30,000 in the Dirty War, and which would have been rendered invincible by victory in the Falklands.

because firstly I dont dismiss the issue of sovereignty vs colonialism as some dagos ego

I do NOT call Argentinians "dagos", I have family there, ffs! But it really IS about the egoes of the argentinian middle and upper classes - the Junta's main support base

. And because I dont agree with the right of a small minority to have a veto over a nations national sovereignty

Argentina's histroical claim over the Falklands is so weak - they'd never settled a population there, and Argentina didn't even exist as a nation under that name at the time of the first British settlement, so this has ZERO to do with Argentina's 'national sovereignty. The idea is ridiculous.

and thereby permit a national territory to be divided or disrupted by a colonial power

since when were the falklands a unitary part of Argentina? never, that's when.

In fact Im of the belief its against international law . Ive told you I would oppose this self determination "principle" if it was pakistanis in Bradford demanding its annexation, or even Yorkshire independence .

for the reasons above, an even more absurd comparison

of course they have rights , but in my view it doesnt have the right to disrupt Argentinian territorial unity

for the umpteenth time the Falklands have sod all to do with "Argentinian territorial unity"

the one Britian was supplying with military equipment ? While supplying Pinochet with the same and proclaiming him an ally ? Good enough for the dagos but not our chaps ?

when we've dispensed with the student swappie sloganeering, we perhaps may see that eternal British cynicism and duplicity has zero connection with the rights of the falkland islanders

do you realise its likely therell be another conflict in the future , and that next time round its unlikely Argentina will stand alone in Latin America ?

No there won't, short of another military dictatorship seizing power. IMO and IME, they simply haven't got it in them, and most argentinians, outside of the ex-oligarcico are far more concerned with domestic and economic issues, like grabbing and sharing round some of the extreme wealth of that ruling class.
Equally, I can't see a wave of panamerican bolivarianism resulting in ANY other nation sending troops in support. There may be cultural affinity, but little taste for making common military cause, especially if it looks like resulting in a bodycount.

To try and make the argument they were better off with Britian nicking their turf, which they wouldnt know what to do with anyway , when Britian was one of those happily propping these regimes up in the first place is quite absurd in my view .

But I'm not making that argument - who here is?

The best thing all round for everyone is for Britian to assent to enter into talks at the UN and decide the issue there under international law . Its also better for the islanders themselves if they can start having access to the Argentinian mainland and a fresh supply of DNA before it turns into Royston fucking Vasey . Even the US state department has now begun openly referring to the place as Las Malvinas . The writings on the wall . Better to sort it out in a dignfied fashion than another war

which basically boils down to "stuff the falklanders and whatever they may want"

 

[likesfish]

Argentina possibly has the number of aircraft on paper but as this points out a military solution is not on the table.
http://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2011/04/the-falkland-islands-and-our-pants/

The Falkland Islands and surrounding smaller ones are sovereign territory, we have a clear obligation and mandate to protect them from aggression. Any operation there would not be a war of choice and we must not forget that Argentina has not relinquished her claim to the Islands.​

The Argentine authorities have declared that any shipping that wishes to travel between Argentina and the Falkland Islands (including South Sandwich and South Georgia) must seek permission. This is a gradual upping of the general tempo around an issue which has never been fully resolved, i.e. Argentina continues to refuse accept that the Falklands are the Falklands and not the Malvinas.​

What of the claims and counter claims?​

The first thing we must be very clear on is that the defence of the Falkland Islands is based on a strategy of graduated readiness and scalable response, when the threat level increases ‘things happen’​

The UK maintains a very close eye on the political and security situation within South America in general and Argentina specifically so military readiness on the islands is matched to observation and analysis. It is judged that currently, there exists a relatively low but tangible threat from Argentina and maintaining an appropriate defence and deterrent force is the right strategy.​

Should this change and a more belligerent government come into power that matches sabre rattling with the buying of real sabres, then calculations would change and so would force levels and capabilities.​

If we look at the actual capabilities of the Argentine forces to mount a combined arms amphibious operation to retake the islands, sustain an occupation against experienced and well armed dispersed defence forces and resist an operation to retake them then again, it is quite clear that fantasy does not meet reality.​

They can huff and puff all they like but the piggies are quite safe, sitting in hardened aircraft shelters and 100m below sea level thank you very much.​

So lets assume that MI6, GCHQ and the combined intelligence capability of the UK, plus of course Jane’s and Shepard Defence, have completely missed a change in Argentine intentions and military capability to such a degree that the alert state on the islands remains low, no reinforcement having taken place and jogging is continuing to be carried out normally. We might also assume that intelligence and security relationships with our NATO and EU allies have also completely broken down and no product has been forthcoming from them either.​

To lend credibility lets make some more Captain Fantastic assumptions, the internet has been disivented and and the thousands of expats living in Argentina, defence contractors and Argentine press are doing their very best hear no, see no, see no and type no evil.​

In short, all the vast array instruments of intelligence at our disposal in a globalised and interconnected defence economy have completely failed.​

Embarrassment is difficult for any nation, let alone one in South America with all that latin machismo.​

telling everyone not to panic.​

Executing a neat shimy, Strictly Come Dancing style, our scenario also forgets that the roulement infantry company, detachment of Short Range Desert Group (Shemagh and Shades optional), Falkland Islands Defence Force, RN presence and various other capabilities basically sit on the sideline with a note from mum, excusing them anything strenuous.​

The RIC will of course all have various shades of sun tan from their extensive world tour and therefore likely have ten times more actual combat experience than the forces ranged against them.​

But none of this matters does it.​

Filed in the ‘not relevant’ section of the scenario is the inconvenient fact that UK forces have been doing nothing for the last 30 odd years except planning for and rehearsing such an attack on MPA by Special Forces, I mean, whoever would have thought of that!​

Credible so far?​

If any of the Typhoons are in the air or launched within this initial attack , remembering there are more HAS than aircraft, each one could carry up to 8 air to air missiles and it is acknowledged to be one of the most potent air defence aircraft in the world.​

It just does not add up to any sort of credible threat but lets assume there is another means of attack.​

The Argentine Air Force wakes up one day and finds Santa Clause has delivered a fleet of fighter bombers, the support infrastructure and training necessary for an attack against one of the worlds premier air dominance fighters and slip on shoes champions 70 odd years running and decides to go for an attack. Against 4 Typhoon it could be a numbers game, probing and feints might sap the endurance but this scenario assumes that yet again, the UK has decided not to bother swinging into action with the very well planned reinforcement plan that would see multiple Typhoons tanked south along with an E3 Sentry or two.​

Yet again, the whole deception by distraction idea has never once been thought of, the RAF are complete chumps (stand fast at the back) and these scenarios have never been tested, ever, once, not ever.​

Meanwhile various naval vessels and an amphibious force would be on their way, UK C17 and C130 fleet would be flying South full to the brim with every high readiness unit at the UK’s disposal, all of course taking the time to plan, receive intelligence whilst inbound, slap on a fetching shade of cam cream and get busy combing their luxuriant facial hair accouterments.​

In very short order we could reinforce the Falkland Islands with a serious force, on top the very serious force that already exists.​

Any operation to invade the islands would therefore be an issue of timing, Argentine forces would need to destroy the ability of Mount Pleasant before the UK could reinforce it.​

 

[Andrew Hertford]

and you'd have placed much faith in the promises of a regime which dealt with its' opponents by dropping them out of airplanes, and which had torture jails the length of the country, and which would have been made invincible by a successful, unchallenged conquest? I wouldn't.

Our treatment of the chagossians is disgusting, but 2 wrongs don't make a right

It wouldn't have been about placing faith in the junta, it would have been a judgement about the potential risk to the islanders versus the willingness to sacrifice hundreds of lives - nearly a thousand as it turned out. I don't think even Thatcher actually thought that the islander's lives would be at risk if we hadn't gone for the military option. Ironically the only death amongst the islanders was from a shell fired by our side.

The war from our perspective only became about 'self determination' because the islanders were white and had English accents. If they hadn't been, we'd probably have told them to fuck off somewhere else and sold the Islands to Argentina decades before.

 

[laptop]

The war from our perspective only became about 'self determination' because the islanders were white and had English accents. If they hadn't been, we'd probably have told them to fuck off somewhere else and sold the Islands to Argentina decades before.

More likely to the US, like Diego Garcia... if they wanted it.

 

[Streathamite]

The war from our perspective only became about 'self determination' because the islanders were white and had English accents. If they hadn't been, we'd probably have told them to fuck off somewhere else and sold the Islands to Argentina decades before.

that's certainly true

 

[Giles]

Based on the assumption that they don't manage to take it in the first place. There's only 4 Eurofighers there, the Argentinians have enough aircraft that they could just run the Eurofighters out of missiles, crater the runway then storm in and take the island with infantry, tanks and so on. If that happens then we can't take it back. In fact it's worse now, once you have the island you've got an all up airfield to use to defend it from.

The UK could threaten (and do) other stuff though. Like position a sub or two outside of Argentina's main ports and torpedo everything belonging ot that country that goes in or out, until they agree to leave the Falklands.

This could be kept up pretty much indefinitely.

Giles..

 

[Deareg]

The UK could threaten (and do) other stuff though. Like position a sub or two outside of Argentina's main ports and torpedo everything belonging ot that country that goes in or out, until they agree to leave the Falklands.

This could be kept up pretty much indefinitely.

Giles..

They would only be kept there until the price of diesel went up again.

 

[Casually Red]

So you want everyone but the people who live there to have a say in the future of the Falklands?

Do you also think the British and Irish governments should the only ones to decide Northern Ireland's future? Sod what the people who live there think...

i couldnt give a toss about either the British or Irish governments . Northern Ireland is a totally artificially created entity . Only the Irish people as a whole- acting as a singular unit should be able to decide , without any foreign interference . Royalist national minorities shouldnt have a veto over national democracy just because the guns of the British army back them up .