2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[belboid]

Labnour have regained Bradford - is that with wins from Respect? Their election page refuses to load

UKIP actually won the popular vote in Rotherham
UKIP: 30,084 (44.3%)
Labour: 27,793 (40.9%)
Conservative: 6,482 (9.5%)
Other: 3,611

And Mark Krantz is the last SWP result in 163, 4.2%

 

[brogdale]

From the BBC...

• Labour are ahead of their performance last year, and in 2010, but they have not done as well as they are doing in national polls.

• The Tories are doing worse than in 2010, but better than they were doing last year.

• The Lib Dems are doing worse than in 2010, worse than they are doing in the polls, but better than last year.

• Ukip are doing significantly worse than last year, but better than in the polls.

Labour
Today's figure: 31%

And how it compares to -

Locals in 2010: +4

Locals last year: +2

Opinion polls: -4

Conservatives
Today's figure: 29%

And how it compares to -

Locals in 2010: -6

Locals last year: +4

Opinion polls: -3

Lib Dems
Today's figure: 13%

And how it compares to -

Locals in 2010: -13

Locals last year: -1

Opinion polls: +4

Ukip
Today's figure: 17%

And how it compares to -

Locals in 2010: n/a

Locals last year: -6

Opinion polls: +3

Today's figure is the BBC's projected national share figure.

 

[Red Storm]

.

 

[Cid]

TUSC got 2150 over 9 wards in Salford. Average of 238 votes.

Of how many?

 

[Red Storm]

Of how many?

20 wards I think.

 

[Cid]

20 wards I think.

I mean what % of the vote did they get in the wards they stood in?

 

[Red Storm]

I mean what % of the vote did they get in the wards they stood in?

Ah. Not got a clue, Manchester Evening News not putting the % on.

Labour are getting around 1400 votes each time, which is a win.

 

[Red Storm]

Just over the river in Manchester: TUSC is doing appallingly, getting around 40 votes a time.

Wonder why they did much better in Salford?

 

[emanymton]

Just over the river in Manchester: TUSC is doing appallingly, getting around 40 votes a time.

Wonder why they did much better in Salford?

Manchester results.

At least they beat the motorcycle alliance.

 

[elbows]

I mean what % of the vote did they get in the wards they stood in?

Numbers are here:

http://www.salford.gov.uk/results.htm

 

[Cid]

What are Barton, Little Hulton like and Weaste and Sedley like? Particularly strong showings...

 

[Red Storm]

What are Barton, Little Hulton like and Weaste and Sedley like? Particularly strong showings...

All rum places. Barton less so though.

 

[elbows]

Fun news for tory haters from my towns council, Nuneaton & Bedworth. In 2008 the tories managed to control the council. Some infighting meant they just lost control of it in 2010, and Labour won it back in 2012. Thanks to the latest election they now have just 3 seats! (out of 34 in total).

My council is shit and hasn't published the detailed results yet, so I can't comment in full. But it sounds like the tories lost another seat to the greens (NIMBY new housing estates driving that one), giving us 2 green councillors (husband and wife). EDIT - not husband and wife, different seat won by greens to the one I assumed it was.

No UKIP councillors here still, but the share of the vote they picked up in one ward seems to have cost the tory group leader his seat (to labour). Traditionally not a very strong part of the country for UKIP, but they did manage to field candidates in all council wards this time. The BNP, who were pretty strong here at their peak and had 2 councillors at one point, continued their decline by only fielding 3 candidates.

Given that in general elections this is a constituency which tends towards Labour, but often elects a tory MP when the tories are at their strongest (1983, 1987, 2010), alarm bells should be ringing for them

 

[SpineyNorman]

All rum places. Barton less so though.

http://www.salford.gov.uk/results.htm

some fairly low results in salford too - the 400s and 200s bumped it up but there's a coupe in the 50s and low hundreds. Have you or anyone you know been involved mate? Be interested to see whether the good results are in areas that were canvassed more thoroughly or if the vote was just better in the more working class/deprived wards.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

Polling day for the Irish locals and Euros and a couple of Dail by-elections today.

The Socialist Party is in with a shout for an extra Dail seat. Dublin looks likely to increase on its 12.5% Vote for a Trotskyist in the last euros, but this time the hard left vote will be split thanks to the fucking SWP. In the council elections, there will be a fair few leftists elected.

The more general picture will be a big vote for Sinn Fein and a collapse by a Labour.

Up North, the usual shite will happen with almost all councillors divided between the four sectarian parties (DUP, UUUP, SF, SdLP) and the upper middle class liberals of the Alliance. The BBC are apparently reporting that the Socialist Party activist running as an anti-fracking candidate is "one to watch" based on early tallies. He used to be a Sinn Fein councillor.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Polling day for the Irish locals and Euros and a couple of Dail by-elections today.

The Socialist Party is in with a shout for an extra Dail seat. Dublin looks likely to increase on its 12.5% Vote for a Trotskyist in the last euros, but this time the hard left vote will be split thanks to the fucking SWP. In the council elections, there will be a fair few leftists elected.

The more general picture will be a big vote for Sinn Fein and a collapse by a Labour.

Up North, the usual shite will happen with almost all councillors divided between the four sectarian parties (DUP, UUUP, SF, SdLP) and the upper middle class liberals of the Alliance. The BBC are apparently reporting that the Socialist Party activist running as an anti-fracking candidate is "one to watch" based on early tallies. He used to be a Sinn Fein councillor.

Are alliance the ones that are kind of like the northern Irish lib dems? The ones who voted with sinn fein on the fleg stuff?

 

[Nigel Irritable]

Are alliance the ones that are kind of like the northern Irish lib dems? The ones who voted with sinn fein on the fleg stuff?

Yes. Mostly rich, mostly well meaning in a paternalistic sort of way and mostly useless. Less malicious than the Lib Dems.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Yes. Mostly rich, mostly well meaning in a paternalistic sort of way and mostly useless. Less malicious than the Lib Dems.

like a lib dem/Green party (england and wales) hybrid then?

 

[elbows]

Continuing my usual extremely local Nuneaton & Bedworth election coverage.

In 2012 it seems UKIP only had a candidate in one ward here. Its a traditional tory ward, next door to another traditional tory ward that went green in 2012 due to the aforementioned NIMBY housing issue. It has a NIMBY housing issue of it's own, thats still an issue in 2014. Anyway here is that ward (St Nicolas), 2012 vs 2014:

2012:
Tory 874
Labour 404
Green 349
UKIP 153

2014:
Tory 995
Green 602
UKIP 347
Lab 334

 

[treelover]

Hull turnout 21%, lowest on record

Blimey, that is low..

no, that's Alistair!

Alistair would have made a great councillor, he is so committed to basic issues, etc.

 

[treelover]

OK, now I'm afraid



I though west eccy was labour?

They missed a trick not standing in Manor Castle IMO, with the kinds of leaflets they've been putting out in w/c wards round here (anti-cuts, council house building, protection of benefits) I think they'd have taken most of our vote and a decent chunk from labour.

UKIP have been promising to protect benefits!

doing what the lib dems used to do, tailoring their offer to specific areas.

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Final shares:

Labour 38.6 31 seats (+5)
Tories 24.6. 10 (-2)
Green 16.4. 3 (0)
Lib Dems 8.4. 2 (-2)
UKIP 8.3. 0 (0)

Lib Dems squeaking 4th despite being beaten into 5th almost everywhere UKIP stood. Only saved by the wards with no UKIP candidates and the freaks on Tilehurst.

Good showing by the Greens.

The only tusc candidate only got 20 or 30 votes. The paper even labeled the party "TUSAC" and, separately, "Trade union socialists against cuts" (consistent in their apathy, as well - also roundly ignored the press release announcing candidates were standing) which is insult to injury.

Still if all your local Reading SP comrades devote all their energy to the Southampton candidates campaign, and you stand in a Tory stronghold, what can you expect? Would have been nice to see them beat the LDs as well, though.

 

[treelover]

Possible this could be a misprint because the TUSC vote is about 10 times what I'd expected but if not this is an interesting on - Broomhill:

Labour Party: Katherine Baker
Votes: 1412

Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts: Rich Brown
Votes: 415

Conservative Party: Michael Lawrence Ginn
Votes: 357

Liberal Democrat: Harry Matthews
Votes: 501

UK Independence Party (UKIP): Pat Sullivan
Votes: 232

Green Party: Brian Charles Webster
Votes: 2010

 

[dennisr]

TUSC got 2150 over 9 wards in Salford. Average of 238 votes.

TUSC got around 5000 votes in Walthamstow - again, christ knows how that translates into percentages let alone averages.

Ooops - I stand corrected "Waltham Forest (London), TUSC got 5482 votes across the borough. Up from 300 in 2010 general elections."

Waltham Forest/Walthamstow its all the same innit...

 

[treelover]

Yeah it is - just got a text through from the count. Thought this looked a bit high!

View attachment 54397

so which figure was it?

 

[Nigel Irritable]

like a lib dem/Green party (england and wales) hybrid then?

None of the slightly bewildered "leftish" stuff you get from Greens before they get into power. Perhaps if you are talking about the Irish Greens or the Brighton Council Greens.

 

[elbows]

And the Nuneaton & Bedworth wards where it looks like UKIP probably cost the tories a councillor. The Weddington one sees the UKIP factor combine with the green NIMBY issue I keep mentioning, but anyways...

ARBURY
Lab Gain
Lab 583
Con 542
UKIP 403
Green 84
BNP 48

ATTLEBOROUGH
Lab Gain
Lab 690
Con 547
UKIP 397
Green 111
EngDem 44
TUSC 22

BULKINGTON
Lab Gain
Lab 748
Con 741
UKIP 589

GALLEY COMMON
Lab Gain
Lab 614
UKIP 570
Con 513
TUSC 35

WEDDINGTON
Green Gain
Green 982
Con 800
UKIP 432
Lab 317
TUSC 13

UKIP got similar numbers in the other wards they stood in. But I will crunch a couple of numbers so I can see what sort of percentage they got in traditionally tory-leaning wards vs traditionally labour ones.

 

[SpineyNorman]

so which figure was it?

45 - thought it still says 415 on the council website

 

[treelover]

Belboid will probably have better recommendations - I've got 2 favourite places but one of them shut down recently (Indian on west street called Nirmal's) and the other is a caribbean place that's probably too far from the city centre. There's a good all you can eat chinese place across the road from the O2 academy, near the travel information place though - you can get an all you can eat buffet and a drink for about a tenner there. I'd have offered to meet up for a drink but I'm stuck in chesterfield at my mum's this weekend.

King Biscuit Time might know somewhere as well

Blue moon café/res, full veggie meal, 6.75

 

[belboid]

45 - thought it still says 415 on the council website

bloody communist infiltration