2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[brogdale]

I posted earlier that Cable could be in trouble given the mauling the lib dems got down here. However (and it pains me to say this) on closer analysis in the wards in his actual constituency the lib dem vote held-up OK.

Vine's computer says no.

 

[Teaboy]

Vine's computer says no.

Vine's computer is going on the results of LBRUT, Cable's constituency is less than half of that. In fact the libs nicked a seat from the tories in a ward in his area.

 

[Nylock]

LD's seriously starting to pull ahead now: 163/178

 

[emanymton]

I stood in one ward (not telling cos you'll all take the piss but it's not been announced yet)

Oh come on, as if we would.

Actually to randomly derail the thread, I might be in Sheffield over the weekend, can you, Belboid or anyone else recommend anywhere decent to eat in the city centre? Not too expensive but doesn't have to be dirt cheap, there is always wetherspoons beer and a burger if I feel cheap on the day.

 

[marty21]

I did see a Lib Dem on the Dimblebot show last night suggesting that the Lib Dems should leave the coalition before the election - I think she is still a fringe view tbf - I'm guessing that if it happened, the Tories would continue as a minority administration until calling an election in May next year.

 

[Badgers]

LD's seriously starting to pull ahead now: 163/178

It is not over yet
Gap is back to 11 fails

Tories / LibDems
171 / 182

#hatepoll

 

[belboid]

Oh come on, as if we would.

Actually to randomly derail the thread, I might be in Sheffield over the weekend, can you, Belboid or anyone else recommend anywhere decent to eat in the city centre? Not too expensive but doesn't have to be dirt cheap, there is always wetherspoons beer and a burger if I feel cheap on the day.

he beat the 19 TUSC got in Bristol, so not enough fun to be had with our spiney anyway

There's a reasonable mexicanny place - http://www.streetfoodchef.co.uk/ Up for anything interesting? Could buy you a pint...

 

[SpineyNorman]

Oh come on, as if we would.

Actually to randomly derail the thread, I might be in Sheffield over the weekend, can you, Belboid or anyone else recommend anywhere decent to eat in the city centre? Not too expensive but doesn't have to be dirt cheap, there is always wetherspoons beer and a burger if I feel cheap on the day.

Belboid will probably have better recommendations - I've got 2 favourite places but one of them shut down recently (Indian on west street called Nirmal's) and the other is a caribbean place that's probably too far from the city centre. There's a good all you can eat chinese place across the road from the O2 academy, near the travel information place though - you can get an all you can eat buffet and a drink for about a tenner there. I'd have offered to meet up for a drink but I'm stuck in chesterfield at my mum's this weekend.

King Biscuit Time might know somewhere as well

 

[belboid]

I'm guessing that if it happened, the Tories would continue as a minority administration until calling an election in May next year.

indeed. If they were better placed, they could force an immediate election, but they're not, so they wont

 

[Teaboy]

I did see a Lib Dem on the Dimblebot show last night suggesting that the Lib Dems should leave the coalition before the election - I think she is still a fringe view tbf .

It'd be pointless I reckon, they're going to get humped regardless so they may as well enjoy their ministerial cars for as long as possible.

 

[Wilf]

It is not over yet
Gap is back to 11 fails

Tories / LibDems
171 / 182

#hatepoll

 

[brogdale]

Vine's computer is going on the results of LBRUT, Cable's constituency is less than half of that. In fact the libs nicked a seat from the tories in a ward in his area.

I stand corrected; I took Vine's methodology at face value...I thought he'd said it was constituency wide, but I must have been mistaken.

 

[brogdale]

3.27pm BST

Ukip won 10 of the 13 seats up for election on Great Yarmouth, which has gone from Labour to no overall control. Ukip have 10 of the 39 seats on the full council, with Labour holding 15 and the Conservatives 14.

Blimey.

 

[belboid]

oh, you'll like this Spiney...

Burngreave - MB 8.4%
Manor & Castle - AT 10.1%

 

[Cid]

Oh come on, as if we would.

Actually to randomly derail the thread, I might be in Sheffield over the weekend, can you, Belboid or anyone else recommend anywhere decent to eat in the city centre? Not too expensive but doesn't have to be dirt cheap, there is always wetherspoons beer and a burger if I feel cheap on the day.

Tamper have the best coffee in Sheffield and a decent selection of sandwiches etc. Tend to be quite busy though.

 

[emanymton]

he beat the 19 TUSC got in Bristol, so not enough fun to be had with our spiney anyway

There's a reasonable mexicanny place - http://www.streetfoodchef.co.uk/ Up for anything interesting? Could buy you a pint...

Cheers. Long story short, I have a friend staying with me for a few weeks as she is working near me*, but she has also just been dumped by her partner after living together for 7 years. She was in Sheffield last week for work and liked to look of the city and is talking about us having a day out there over the weekend, but it will really depend on how she feels as she is a bit all over the place at the moment. So to answer your question not anything that interesting just wander around really.

*Well she is actually <cough>an intern<cough> but she is at least getting paid minimum wage.

 

[brogdale]

BBC's projected national share estimate based on declarations so far:-

Lab 31%, Con 29%, UKIP 17%, LD 13%, Oth 10%.

 

[belboid]

oooh, Projected National Share out now!

Lab 31
Cons 29
UKIP 17
Libs 13
Other 10

Labour 4 seats short of overall majority

 

[brogdale]

BBC PNS of 17% for UKIP depressed by the 'London effect' bias in the totality....down from 23% last time around.

 

[The39thStep]

Lib Dems gain a seat in Stockport but lose one . They have a good footprint in Stockport . Labour lose one and gain one .

 

[butchersapron]

@robfordmancs UKIP 2014 average shares: 19% in Lib Dem held wards, 20% in Con, 25% in Labour.

 

[brogdale]

LD PNS lower than last time's 'lowest ever'. John Curtice "..an abysmal performance".

 

[The39thStep]

Lib Dems now lost two in Stockport to the Tories

 

[Wilf]

@robfordmancs UKIP 2014 average shares: 19% in Lib Dem held wards, 20% in Con, 25% in Labour.

That's interesting and pretty depressing for Labour, but also the kind of statistic that means (if the pattern was the same next year) that ukip won't get any Westminster seats.

 

[Red Storm]

TUSC got a few 400+ votes in wards in Salford.

Shocked how "well" they've done

 

[butchersapron]

On that BBC projected share = this is compared to last year:

LAB 31 (+2)
CON 29(+4)
LD 13(-1)
UKIP 17(-6)

But this is compared to the last time these seats were contested (2010):

CON -7
LAB +2
LD -10
UKIP +14

 

[brogdale]

That's interesting and pretty depressing for Labour, but also the kind of statistic that means (if the pattern was the same next year) that ukip won't get any Westminster seats.

Those are average figures. Though it is very difficult for them to get Westminster seats I think we're getting enough indications that they may well win a handful in 2015. Places like Grimsby, Yarmouth, some in S.Essex and Farage himself in Thanet.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I doubt UKIP will do as well taking votes from labour in the GE when they'll actually have to have some policies. At present it looks like they're pro-benefits, pro-house building when they're in a labour ward and anti-scrounger, pro-green belt in tory wards

Plus all these newly elected kipper councillors have just been handed a whole year's worth of rope with which to hang themselves, an opportunity I doubt they'll waste.

 

[Badgers]

Matthew Ellery is a bit of a card eh?
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk...he_son_of_Basingstoke_UKIP_leader_Alan_Stone/

 

[Red Storm]

TUSC got 2150 over 9 wards in Salford. Average of 238 votes.