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World Cup betting tips

sarobinson said:
Nah just for the outright winners - are Spain still 4-1 favourites etc?

Just wanna know what the odds are for the big teams really - Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Germany etc.
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Argentina are 9/2 with most bookies
Spain are 5/1
Brazil are between 4/1 and 5/1
Germany are betweem 6/1 and 7/1
England are 8/1 in most places.

Also, Paddy Power are doing some nice comedy bets today - they are at the bottom of me blog innit - http://theboymitchell.com/world-cup-2010-day-8-mon-dieu/

eta - beaten to it by NickSonic!
 
Germany to at least semi I reckon.

I wonder what the odds are that France won't score a single goal in their last game?
 
nicksonic said:
football365's 'cheeky punt' is usually worth a read -

http://worldcup.football365.com/story/0,27111,18486_6211923,00.html
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hana v Australia
The Black Stars looked a tidy side as they beat Serbia 1-0 in their opening fixture, and I reckon they are definitely a punt at even money to see off Australia here. Everyone was raving about Germany's performance last Sunday but, let's have it right, the Socceroos were p***-poor. And they will be without talisman and chief goal threat Tim Chaill for this one. He was dismissed during their d**king at the hands of ze Germans and he'll be sorely missed. Brett Emerton looked about as useful as Rolf Harris in Australia's first match while in sharp contrast the likes of Andre Ayew and Asamoah Gyan impressed for the Africans. I fancy Ghana to do the business here. Big time. Indeed, if they don't win, I'll happily wedge a vuvuzela up my ringpiece.
Betting: Ghana to beat Australia at evens (Betfred)
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I see his reasoning that Ghana are favourites. But at evens they look short to me, and at 3-1 Australia look long.
 
Portugal at 33-1 don't look a bad bet at all.

Argentina 9-2 favourites? You could get 28-1 on them a few weeks back!
 
It still looks like very long odds for one of the pre-tournament favourites. I still fancy them to get out of their group, at which point their odds will probably drop to something like 6-1, allowing you to take a healthy profit.
 
In fact, there are a few teams that seem likely to get out of their groups (such as Uruguay) that I have to question whether their odds won't be much shorter by this time next week.
 
kabbes said:
It still looks like very long odds for one of the pre-tournament favourites. I still fancy them to get out of their group, at which point their odds will probably drop to something like 6-1, allowing you to take a healthy profit.
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only if they win though :confused:

unless i've missed something, or we're betting in futures.
 
No, you bet against them when the group stage is finished. You make the difference between 33-1 and 6-1.
 
ok, let's do an experiment then. portugal are 33-1 to win the tournament, so i'll put £10 on (in theory).

let's see if they qualify and if they do what their odds are not to scoop the hand-holding-melon-dipped-in-custard trophy :)
 
nicksonic said:
what their odds are not to scoop the hand-holding-melon-dipped-in-custard trophy :)
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It's things like Betfair that have really made this kind of approach feasible, because you can be the one accepting bets rather than placing them.
 
kabbes said:
It's things like Betfair that have really made this kind of approach feasible, because you can be the one accepting bets rather than placing them.
Click to expand...

indeed although it always makes me smile when i see their ads and tagline - 'win bigger with betfair.' in this case it means someone else loses bigger (not that anyone bets thinking they'll lose, iyswim).
 
kabbes said:
It's things like Betfair that have really made this kind of approach feasible, because you can be the one accepting bets rather than placing them.
Click to expand...

Aaaaah, right. So I lay a bet a tenner at 33-1 (pays 340). If the odds drop to 6-1 I can take any bet up to say 47gbp (pays 329), safe in the knowledge that if Portugal win, I still get my stake back, and in the more likely event that they don't win, I finish with a profit of 37 quid?
 
Lo Siento. said:
Aaaaah, right. So I lay a bet a tenner at 33-1 (pays 340). If the odds drop to 6-1 I can take any bet up to say 47gbp (pays 329), safe in the knowledge that if Portugal win, I still get my stake back, and in the more likely event that they don't win, I finish with a profit of 37 quid?
Click to expand...
You got it. It allows you to take advantage of short-term inaccuracies in the odds without having to commit yourself to expecting the team to win the whole tournament.

If you're really good, you can even use it to take advantage of the natural ups and downs of a tournament. Bet on a team after they lose the first game and close it out after they win the next game.

All theory, mind. I'm way too chicken to play it for real.
 
Lo Siento. said:
Aaaaah, right. So I lay a bet a tenner at 33-1 (pays 340). If the odds drop to 6-1 I can take any bet up to say 47gbp (pays 329), safe in the knowledge that if Portugal win, I still get my stake back, and in the more likely event that they don't win, I finish with a profit of 37 quid?
Click to expand...

Depending on how much you lay, you can "green-up" and lock in some profit whatever the outcome.

I backed Serbia for the tournament @ 260 last night, if they get anything from the game against Germany today, their odds will drastically shorten and I'll be able lay at that lower price, trading out for some guaranteed profit no matter who wins the tournament.
 
nicksonic said:
you'd think they would since both them and south africa need to win to have any chance of progressing.
Click to expand...

France are basically fucked now though. Their first game was a goalless draw so they'd lose to SA on goal difference anyway unless they beat the 4 0 or something which isn't going to happen :D
 
RaverDrew said:
Depending on how much you lay, you can "green-up" and lock in some profit whatever the outcome.

I backed Serbia for the tournament @ 260 last night, if they get anything from the game against Germany today, their odds will drastically shorten and I'll be able lay at that lower price, trading out for some guaranteed profit no matter who wins the tournament.
Click to expand...

^^^Someone who does it properly, and for real :)
 
Raymond Domenech is one crazy mofo.

France not scoring, I reckon is a good bet.
Draw or SA to win to nil.
 
RaverDrew said:
Depending on how much you lay, you can "green-up" and lock in some profit whatever the outcome.

I backed Serbia for the tournament @ 260 last night, if they get anything from the game against Germany today, their odds will drastically shorten and I'll be able lay at that lower price, trading out for some guaranteed profit no matter who wins the tournament.
Click to expand...

Serbia's price drops to 85

Time to trade ? Or should I wait until after the Australia - Ghana game ? :hmm:

Don't fancy anything in the USA - Slovenia game, could go either way. In terms of overs/unders it be a goalfest or end 0-0. Might wait until it goes in-play.
 
Just spoke to my dad and he's doing his mad £200 per stake bets.

I told him I was betting too.
Heard the sadness in his voice...

FFS, 10 quid here and there is not the same...
 
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