RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
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War propaganda, 'Realists' and neocons, and the denigration of the war sceptics
- Thread starter RD2003
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agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Maybe it is me being desperate to see them but there have been a few of possibly positive signs this afternoon - Putin's apology, some of the things Lukashenko said in his AP interview and now this third UN evacuation of people from Mariupol.
Obviously the level of confidence and trust that anyone can have is close to zero at the moment, but I really hope all parties are trying to do everything possible to calm this down.
Obviously the level of confidence and trust that anyone can have is close to zero at the moment, but I really hope all parties are trying to do everything possible to calm this down.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Tens of billions of dollars' worth of weapons flooding into the country will likely result in far more deaths than would a flawed peace. Ukraine can't win this outright, and neither can Russia. Neither side is destined to be satisfied, but an end has to come sooner rather than later because if the much-trumpeted Ukrainian counter-offensive is successful, we stand a good chance of seeing tactical nuclear weapons used, which changes everything for everybody. And not in a good way (as they say these days.)
Unfortunately, you have already won-it's the path they have all chosen.
ska invita
back on the other side
you're right - most of the article has nothing to do with this point about Ukraine Winning, and i agree with everything said in it that doesnt rest on that point.
But the relevant bit of the argument is around the necessity to fight and continue to arm indefinitely, because "Ukraine can win". This argument wobbles a bit when faced with the fact that Ukraine has lost significant territory already. The more accurate (realist!) case might be made that Ukraine Must Fight To Minimise Losses As Much As Possible.
If territory losses come to be acknowledged then that in turn leads to future questions about whether arming is pointlessly prolonging the war, and about the rights of guerrilla war against occupiers etc etc, but I guess thats for a future time...though not that far away i expect
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
It's all very well to say Ukrainians should negotiate with him, but that nobody except some nebulous experts can say what that actually entails. Loads of politicians have tried to speak to Putin. Even the pope has tried to speak to Putin (ignored). Guterres spoke to Putin, then when he was in Kyiv the following day, the city was hit again.
Putin has made it abundantly clear that he won't negotiate for anything less than serious capitulation; then what? He's shown he can't be trusted to stick to any agreements, as have his military - promises of humane corridors that result in civilians being murdered. If he feels he can take what he wants in Ukraine, he can start on Transnistria or Kazakhstan. It'll certainly be bad news for Belarus, just as a Ukrainian defeat will be. If Putin's side is defeated in the war in Ukraine, that weakens Lukashenko's grip on his people. It's important to listen to Belarusians about this. They live under a terribly brutal dictatorship, supported by Putin, the overwhelming majority are rooting for the Ukrainians, in a sense of fraternity and justice, but also for their own sakes.
Taras Bilous* has said (in the piece bluescreen linked to on the previous page), "Some argue that supplying weapons to Ukraine will prolong the war and increase the number of victims. In fact, it is the lack of supplies that will do that. Ukraine can win, and Ukraine’s victory is what the international left should stand for. If Russia wins, it will establish a precedent for the forced redrawing of state borders and push the world into a Third World War."
This isn't just about what "armchair generals" in Western Europe think, it's about listening to people directly affected by this shit and learning a bit about the dynamics in the area from their point of view.
*leftist Ukrainian, living in Ukraine
(Edited for typo.)
Putin has made it abundantly clear that he won't negotiate for anything less than serious capitulation; then what? He's shown he can't be trusted to stick to any agreements, as have his military - promises of humane corridors that result in civilians being murdered. If he feels he can take what he wants in Ukraine, he can start on Transnistria or Kazakhstan. It'll certainly be bad news for Belarus, just as a Ukrainian defeat will be. If Putin's side is defeated in the war in Ukraine, that weakens Lukashenko's grip on his people. It's important to listen to Belarusians about this. They live under a terribly brutal dictatorship, supported by Putin, the overwhelming majority are rooting for the Ukrainians, in a sense of fraternity and justice, but also for their own sakes.
Taras Bilous* has said (in the piece bluescreen linked to on the previous page), "Some argue that supplying weapons to Ukraine will prolong the war and increase the number of victims. In fact, it is the lack of supplies that will do that. Ukraine can win, and Ukraine’s victory is what the international left should stand for. If Russia wins, it will establish a precedent for the forced redrawing of state borders and push the world into a Third World War."
This isn't just about what "armchair generals" in Western Europe think, it's about listening to people directly affected by this shit and learning a bit about the dynamics in the area from their point of view.
*leftist Ukrainian, living in Ukraine
(Edited for typo.)
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RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Then surely, given what the alternatives are, they should redouble their efforts, as an outright Ukranian victory is simply not possible, no matter how much we are led to believe it is by those in the West who should know better, and, much more understandably, by leftists (or anybody else) who are unfortunate enough to be mired in the situation. There is hardly a leader of any nation in history who has proved beyond reach eternally. Plus, there is bound to come a time when, one way or another, Putin is forced into a rethink.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
your just keep repeating the same airy arse - please explain how cutting off or reducing the supply of weapons to Ukraine will save lives and stop the destruction.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
I didn't advocate cutting off the weapons supply. I argued against the additional supplying of tens of billions in offensive weaponry, which represents significant escalation and all the dangers connected with that,
As I said, though, I don't know why you're bothered about anything I may say when you've already won. You are getting what you want.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
You've been arguing against military aid from the beginning.
All your arguments help the Russians at the expense of the Ukrainians.
Using the same logic, a stronger Ukraine will make it more likely to drive the Russians to negotiate, and shorten the war.
Stopping the Russian advance has already likely saved many lives. Mariupol has been horrifying enough, can you imagine how much worse the siege of Kiev would have been?
All your arguments help the Russians at the expense of the Ukrainians.
Using the same logic, a stronger Ukraine will make it more likely to drive the Russians to negotiate, and shorten the war.
Stopping the Russian advance has already likely saved many lives. Mariupol has been horrifying enough, can you imagine how much worse the siege of Kiev would have been?
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
My arguments and yours don't help or hinder anybody, It's just us talking cobblers on here.
We can confidently state whatever we like, but it's mere opinion.
Another reminder though-the side you 'support' (in the same way as cheering on a football team on telly) is winning. You are going to get your escalation. You should make a banner for your living room wall: 'More bombs save lives.'
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Lots of people saying they have an issue with the 'Ukraine can win' narrative, seemingly based on gut feelings, flawed reckons or the fact that Russia is currently occupying 10% of Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine has already pushed Russia out of the vast amounts of northern territory they gained in the opening weeks of the war, and is currently pushing them out of other territories too, notably the area around Kharkiv, but also with counterattacks around Izyum and Kherson. All of that was achieved without the new supplies of NATO arms currently making their way to the front lines.
What makes people so sure that Ukraine is unable to repeat their success over the coming months, or that Russia is so capable of holding their lines once Ukraine's military force is stronger than theirs, as it soon will be?
Genuinely baffled by the certainty so many people on here have that Ukraine 'can't win'. They've shown they're capable of it already, and I think they chances they're able to force Russia back to pre-February 24th front lines are high.
Ukraine has already pushed Russia out of the vast amounts of northern territory they gained in the opening weeks of the war, and is currently pushing them out of other territories too, notably the area around Kharkiv, but also with counterattacks around Izyum and Kherson. All of that was achieved without the new supplies of NATO arms currently making their way to the front lines.
What makes people so sure that Ukraine is unable to repeat their success over the coming months, or that Russia is so capable of holding their lines once Ukraine's military force is stronger than theirs, as it soon will be?
Genuinely baffled by the certainty so many people on here have that Ukraine 'can't win'. They've shown they're capable of it already, and I think they chances they're able to force Russia back to pre-February 24th front lines are high.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Angus puts it better than any of us can: Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now | Angus Roxburgh
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Yeah, why not listen to Putin's former PR advisor.
Quite apart from that, his analysis of likely outcomes and what's actually going on on the ground in Ukraine is shite. It's like he's completely ignored the last two months. It's a pitiful 'analysis'.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
It's unclear whether he was ever close to Putin during his three year stint, but he doubtlessly gained a better insight into Kremlin thinking than people folowing events from afar.
This is the passage that matters most:
'Western leaders cannot bring themselves to broach these matters, which would seem to reward Putin for attempting to redraw the map by force. They would rather fight – or more accurately, let Ukraine fight, in the hope of defeating Russia. But if one thing is certain it is that Putin will never accept defeat. He is already too deeply invested in this war to back off with nothing to show for it. If western leaders think that their arms-length encouragement of Ukraine will bring about a Ukrainian military victory, then they are fatally misreading Putin’s intentions and resolve. For Ukraine’s sake, we need to stop him now, one way or the other, before nothing is left of the country we want to protect.'
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Yanis Varoufakis:
'What appalls me about those who purport to support Ukraine and who are attacking my position, is that they seem to be seriously considering the possibility that Ukraine is going to win the war and overthrow Putin. Now that’s completely pie in the sky. Anybody who believes that is jeopardising the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians as we speak.
At best, you’re going to have a stalemate. Now a stalemate is terrible for the people of Ukraine. Because we know what Putin is going to do. He’s going to do what he did in Grozny. He’s going to raze to the ground areas that he needs to abandon. The Ukrainian army has been very heroic, and I applaud them for having resisted. But they cannot win the war. Do we really want this painful, murderous stalemate go on and on and on? Do we really want to invest in regime change in Russia that is instigated by the United States? Whenever the United States has tried to regime change we’ve had complete catastrophe. Look at Afghanistan, look at Iraq, look at Libya. And this is a nuclear power. Do we want to play with this fire, with this nuclear fire?'
'What appalls me about those who purport to support Ukraine and who are attacking my position, is that they seem to be seriously considering the possibility that Ukraine is going to win the war and overthrow Putin. Now that’s completely pie in the sky. Anybody who believes that is jeopardising the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians as we speak.
At best, you’re going to have a stalemate. Now a stalemate is terrible for the people of Ukraine. Because we know what Putin is going to do. He’s going to do what he did in Grozny. He’s going to raze to the ground areas that he needs to abandon. The Ukrainian army has been very heroic, and I applaud them for having resisted. But they cannot win the war. Do we really want this painful, murderous stalemate go on and on and on? Do we really want to invest in regime change in Russia that is instigated by the United States? Whenever the United States has tried to regime change we’ve had complete catastrophe. Look at Afghanistan, look at Iraq, look at Libya. And this is a nuclear power. Do we want to play with this fire, with this nuclear fire?'
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Yanis has summat to say about those who are profiting from all this, including the arms industry:
'I remember when the United States were about to invade Iraq, even Left-wingers like Christopher Hitchens, a man that I admired all my life, became liberal imperialists. He was gung-ho about invading Iraq and spreading democracy. If you think of the early 1960s, it was JFK who initially showed a degree of enthusiasm for taking over Vietnam.
I do fear that it’s not just some liberal imperialists or liberal supporters of victory — of war until the final victory is achieved, as if it is possible to imagine invading Moscow. I feel that there’s something else there: a missing ingredient. Follow the money. The United States is a very complex economy. And it’s not homogeneous. Segments of the American economy are suffering as a result of the war, with the increasing price of oil. I believe Silicon Valley is not happy, because they’re being put in a very difficult situation. Even the banking sector, Wall Street, can’t really be enjoying what’s going on.
But if you are selling weapons, you are having a party. You have Olaf Scholtz, the German Chancellor, about to order 100 billion euros worth of American equipment, because the Germans are not making the stuff. If you are providing fracked oil and gas from New Mexico, from Minnesota, from Texas, you are looking at the new deals that are being struck between the European Union and the United States for LNG (liquefied natural gas), and you are rubbing your hands with glee. Because what was a dying industry in the United States now suddenly has been given a huge lease of life. This is not a conspiracy. If you have liberal imperialists, and you’ve got people that are going to make a lot of money out of this liberal imperialism, and you bring these together, you have a very powerful constituency in favour of maintaining the conflicts.'
'I remember when the United States were about to invade Iraq, even Left-wingers like Christopher Hitchens, a man that I admired all my life, became liberal imperialists. He was gung-ho about invading Iraq and spreading democracy. If you think of the early 1960s, it was JFK who initially showed a degree of enthusiasm for taking over Vietnam.
I do fear that it’s not just some liberal imperialists or liberal supporters of victory — of war until the final victory is achieved, as if it is possible to imagine invading Moscow. I feel that there’s something else there: a missing ingredient. Follow the money. The United States is a very complex economy. And it’s not homogeneous. Segments of the American economy are suffering as a result of the war, with the increasing price of oil. I believe Silicon Valley is not happy, because they’re being put in a very difficult situation. Even the banking sector, Wall Street, can’t really be enjoying what’s going on.
But if you are selling weapons, you are having a party. You have Olaf Scholtz, the German Chancellor, about to order 100 billion euros worth of American equipment, because the Germans are not making the stuff. If you are providing fracked oil and gas from New Mexico, from Minnesota, from Texas, you are looking at the new deals that are being struck between the European Union and the United States for LNG (liquefied natural gas), and you are rubbing your hands with glee. Because what was a dying industry in the United States now suddenly has been given a huge lease of life. This is not a conspiracy. If you have liberal imperialists, and you’ve got people that are going to make a lot of money out of this liberal imperialism, and you bring these together, you have a very powerful constituency in favour of maintaining the conflicts.'
That "might" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Why do you think they would they do that?
likesfish
You can't park here sir
we did see options for change.
then bosnia kicked off
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
and the options changed
Anyway some expert today reckons any order by Putin to push the button and escalate to nuclear will be ignored. He’s unwell and nobody around him wants the consequences of such a stupid move. Which makes sense really.
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Obviously I'm judging from thousands of miles away so take this with as much salt as you want, but I don't think Putin wants to go out in a blaze of nuclear glory. He wants to make Russia great again, not reduce it to radioactive ashes in an unwinnable nuclear exchange. I think the invasion was a test of how far Russia could take things without directly involving NATO. Well, the Russian government has succeeded on that front, but they have seriously underestimated the degree of Ukrainian resistance, as well as being undermined (perhaps fatally in terms of prosecuting this conflict) by their own corruption and military incompetence.
I think it's notable that the Russian government engaged in basically no preparation for a total war scenario. To me this strongly suggests that they genuinely believed that their "special military operation" was going to be a cake-walk and that they would have Ukraine quickly wrapped up. Whoopsie. Now they have quite the situation on their hands, and with a population that was both materially and psychologically completely unprepared for an extended and draining conflict.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
He's got his work cut out if he wants to mrga
Well he got away with loads of shit not limited to but including chemical attacks on individuals on foreign soil, murders similarly by other means, Crimea etc. Everyone shrugged. So these are those chickens coming home to roost as to how far he can actually push.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
That might be true, but I do worry that this (a drawn-out conflict) might have been the aim all along. I mean this has caused a lot of economic damage across the globe, there are political impacts being felt now in the West and there are exploitable crises starting to appear in much of the rest of the world.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Significant developments?
President Biden released a statement saying that his administration “has nearly exhausted funding that can be used to send security assistance through drawdown authorities for Ukraine”.
Calling for the US to “keep the weapons and ammunition flowing to Ukraine, without interruption” Biden pushed Congress to quickly provide the funding he’s requested. Though he did not specify in the statement the financial total for the latest package, Reuters reports it will amount to $150m and include 25,000 artillery rounds, counter-artillery radars and jamming equipment.
Here’s the president’s statement in full:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy outlined what he would consider a victory for his country on Friday, saying peace negotiations with Moscow would only be considered if Russian troops retreated from all occupied territory they gained after 24 February.
Zelenskiy emphasized that he still has hope for diplomacy but his conditions would be firm, the Washington Post reports.
President Biden released a statement saying that his administration “has nearly exhausted funding that can be used to send security assistance through drawdown authorities for Ukraine”.
Calling for the US to “keep the weapons and ammunition flowing to Ukraine, without interruption” Biden pushed Congress to quickly provide the funding he’s requested. Though he did not specify in the statement the financial total for the latest package, Reuters reports it will amount to $150m and include 25,000 artillery rounds, counter-artillery radars and jamming equipment.
Here’s the president’s statement in full:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy outlined what he would consider a victory for his country on Friday, saying peace negotiations with Moscow would only be considered if Russian troops retreated from all occupied territory they gained after 24 February.
Zelenskiy emphasized that he still has hope for diplomacy but his conditions would be firm, the Washington Post reports.
Lunacy. Imagine wanting an invader to retreat.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
The point being that these are possible signals of sanity beginning to prevail (?) It isn't a game.
I'm fairly sure it is to those it least affects but call the shots.
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