Ukraine

[butchersapron]

They won't annexe the Crimea, or any land there, if they have any strategic sense (although given Putin's autocracy, that isn't a given!). Both sides will sit down at a table and, with "international oversight", negotiate a leasing arrangement for Russian bases and infrastructure to supply them, plus a shared airspace arrangement. The Russians are desperate to retain the Black Sea fleet (such as it is) and the access to the Med that it provides. The Russians want to retain access both for trade reasons, and due to realpolitik.

Putin also wants maximally autonomous Crimea under de facto russian protection inside the Ukraine to add further political and demographic weight to the eastern russian speakers and sympathisers nationally - these people are his tool within the Ukraine, see his relationship with the bloke who legged it and his parties. That's the current wider buffer strategy, weak states surrounding russia with large russian minorities who can be manipulated/used as excuses whenever and wherever as required. A sort of version of the ring of instability thesis that some have came up with to describe their last decades close foreign policy.

 

[kebabking]

They won't annexe the Crimea, or any land there, if they have any strategic sense (although given Putin's autocracy, that isn't a given!). Both sides will sit down at a table and, with "international oversight", negotiate a leasing arrangement for Russian bases and infrastructure to supply them, plus a shared airspace arrangement. The Russians are desperate to retain the Black Sea fleet (such as it is) and the access to the Med that it provides. The Russians want to retain access both for trade reasons, and due to realpolitik.

i'm not going to disagree with your reasoning, but i think Russia isn't going to hand back Crimea - i don't think they are daft enough to formally annexe it, but i'm pretty certain that they'll 'facilitate the wish of its people for independance..' and create a puppet state thats part of Russia in all but seats in the UN.

much as i may think that bad Vlad has got the Duma sewn up, i doubt he'll want to go back to them without something more than 'we've secured the use of Sevastapool..', i think he needs more than that, and the return of Crimea to mother Russia's loving embrace is going to fit the bill nicely.

to me, much more interesting/worrying than Ukrine is Russia handing out passports hand over fist in the Baltic states - perhaps in a couple of years we'll be hearing about the need to protect Russians in other parts of the near abroad that happen to be in the EU/NATO..?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

to me, much more interesting/worrying than Ukrine is Russia handing out passports hand over fist in the Baltic states - perhaps in a couple of years we'll be hearing about the need to protect Russians in other parts of the near abroad that happen to be in the EU/NATO..?

You should also be worried by the the way that the Baltic states are flouting EU laws wrt their treatment of Russian-speaking minorities, have been flouting these laws for years, and the EU has done fuck all about it.

 

[co-op]

None of them are insane. What they are though, is incredibly crude and barely bothering to hide their interests - media over here undoubtedly attempt to put comparable messages across but in much more subtle ways. When was the last time you saw the BBC just make something up and then deliberately illustrate it with pictures from something else entirely on such important issues (see the refugee crisis stories for example or any of these examples - orgreave was 30 years ago before anyone brings that up and they learnt not to be so crude as a result). This puts RT closer to Iraqi invasions news Syrian state news and pres tv (they both allow conspiracy freaks leading voices) than anything else.

I get that RT crudely represents the pov of the Russian state, and without much 'debate' to muddy their line, it's just that of these "14 insane moments" a good 10 of them are being routinely used by the western media (ie the mode of reporting not the actual story of course) including the BBC. And it looks perfectly possible that the "Russian ultimatum" story which the BBC faithfully repeated all day on R5 was indeed just made up (too early to say for sure).

I'm suspicious of RT fans, they are often nutters ime but if it's meant to distinguish RT from their western counterparts, this Buzzfeed list is junk.

 

[butchersapron]

I get that RT crudely represents the pov of the Russian state, and without much 'debate' to muddy their line, it's just that of these "14 insane moments" a good 10 of them are being routinely used by the western media (ie the mode of reporting not the actual story of course) including the BBC. And it looks perfectly possible that the "Russian ultimatum" story which the BBC faithfully repeated all day on R5 was indeed just made up (too early to say for sure).

I'm suspicious of RT fans, they are often nutters ime but if it's meant to distinguish RT from their western counterparts, this Buzzfeed list is junk.

I dont think it was meant to do that at all - it was meant to be a bit of media insiders of funny - look at that bizzare nonsense claiming that Obama killed 3000 people in 911 for example. The main writers next story for example was on state funded rt allowing someone to oppose the russian states actions.

 

[Eastern-Odyssey]

Meanwhile RT continues to show us the facist psychopaths of the Right Sector, meet Igor "sexy beast" Moseychuk.



On the other hand, Ukrainian TV continues to highlight Russian provocateurs middle aged women, kids with guns and the Russian flag waver.

 

[camouflage]

Christ. The Usual Suspects with typical hubris blunder into another nations politics and cause a big mess, and what do our resident Leftists do? Pile predictably in as if it's all a devious scheme by Russia to conquer more territory. Yes, who knows what crazy Putin will do next, surely the tanks are headed to Warsaw as we speak.

Kerry, McCain and Apron all agree that Russia and Furher Putin are the problem. There simply is no such thing as a Western Block Dissident.

 

[butchersapron]

Christ. The Usual Suspects with typical hubris blunder into another nations politics and cause a big mess, and what do our resident Leftists do? Pile predictably in as if it's all a devious scheme by Russia to conquer more territory. Yes, who knows what crazy Putin will do next, surely the tanks are headed to Warsaw as we speak.

Kerry, McCain and Apron all agree that Russia and Furher Putin are the problem. There simply is no such thing as a Western Block Dissident.

wtf are you on about space cowboy?

 

[seventh bullet]

Christ. The Usual Suspects with typical hubris blunder into another nations politics and cause a big mess, and what do our resident Leftists do? Pile predictably in as if it's all a devious scheme by Russia to conquer more territory. Yes, who knows what crazy Putin will do next, surely the tanks are headed to Warsaw as we speak.

Kerry, McCain and Apron all agree that Russia and Furher Putin are the problem. There simply is no such thing as a Western Block Dissident.

Run along and play with your bitcoins.

 

[J Ed]

I have to say that the lies coming from Kerry and Clinton, claiming that not only that there are no fascists in Ukraine but that Putin is Hitler have managed to outdo even the Russian government's lies.

 

[treelover]

Lots of 'Christian love' there....

 

[camouflage]

wtf are you on about space cowboy?

Spead-reading your posts feels like Inside the mind of John Kerry or something, in terms of what you have to say re the situation in Ukraine, that's all.

 

[teqniq]

speed reading fail

 

[treelover]

So, fascists seem pretty embedded in the new Ukrainian government. - http://www.channel4.com/news/svoboda-ministers-ukraine-new-government-far-right

Just a thought I've been having... If Syriza win the next election in Greece, subversion from Golden Dawn is inevitable, especially as they are embedded in the security forces. Now Golden Dawn may have a foreign government as a direct sponsor, which increases their strength considerably. The situation in Ukraine may not lead to WW3, but it may lead to an unpredictable Syria-style civil war centered in Greece...

wonder what would happen if European leftists went to fight there in support of a progressive govt, would they be classed as terrorists?

 

[camouflage]

I have to say that the lies coming from Kerry and Clinton, claiming that not only that there are no fascists in Ukraine but that Putin is Hitler have managed to outdo even the Russian government's lies.

What's more alarming is how readily people you'd think would nknow better are prepared to just accept the picture that's been painted for them in the Western media.

Not saying Russia isn't authoritarian etc, but you have a big defensive blob sitting there happy with the status quo, and un-threatened by the democratic processes taking place in a nation in it's back yard where whoever is elected after the last disappointment that was elected is mostly going to be in touch with the reality of living in Russia's geographical, historical, cultural and economical 'back-yard' etc, then here come the 'tear it all down and start again' brigade, don't wait for elections next year, encouraged by 'us' to Not Negotiate (the usual tactic, "red an white stripes all over" etc) until 'politics' breaks down (as intended) and now let's fuck over the political system and bring down the president from the streets... to hell with the 13 million (yes-probably-were) face-palming Ukrainians that were probably quite looking forward to having another go at this voting lark next year... nah scrap all that.

Russia is the new Hitler, let's just bang that drum instead.

Can't be asked being articulate for now, what's the point anyway.

 

[butchersapron]

Spead-reading your posts feels like Inside the mind of John Kerry or something, in terms of what you have to say re the situation in Ukraine, that's all.

How dispiriting. Oh well.

 

[camouflage]

speed reading fail

Perhaps. Keeping up with this thread for a busy man like me is like scanning the front pages of the Metro held by passengers in a passing tube. Nonetheless, every Apron post I've caught is the same thing "Big Scary Russia, the trouble maker, probably wants to gobble up Eastern Europe again". Along those lines seems to be the overall message.

 

[camouflage]

Run along and play with your bitcoins.

Your bitterness and puzzlement at it all is irrelevant.

 

[seventh bullet]

Your bitterness and puzzlement at it all is irrelevant.

As accurate as your other posts.

It took you what, around twenty minutes for that?

 

[camouflage]

As accurate as your other posts.

It took you what, around twenty minutes for that?

Yes... I even went an got a tea hoping Apron would have posted an interesting come-back by then. But there was only your post still.

Ah well, got it out the way at least.

 

[J Ed]

Good article from Channel 4 here, much more detail than the Graunid's whitewash

http://www.channel4.com/news/svoboda-ministers-ukraine-new-government-far-right

The man facing down Putin's aggression as secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council is Andriy Parubiy. He oversees national security for the nation having previously served as security commandant during the anti-government protests in Kiev.

Parubiy was the founder of the Social National Party of Ukraine, a fascist party styled on Hitler's Nazis, with membership restricted to ethnic Ukrainians.

The Social National Party would go on to become Svoboda, the far-right nationalist party whose leader Oleh Tyahnybok was one of the three most high profile leaders of the Euromaidan protests - negotiating directly with the Yanukovych regime.

Overseeing the armed forces alongside Parubiy as the Deputy Secretary of National Security is Dmytro Yarosh, the leader of the Right Sector - a group of hardline nationalist streetfighters, who previously boasted they were ready for armed struggle to free Ukraine.

Inside Right Sector was an alliance of hardline nationalist groups including Patriot of Ukraine and the paramilitary group UNA-UNSO, who have fought against Russian troops in Chechnya and Moldova. Their members paraded in balaclavas and wore uniforms bearing far-right insignia, including the wolfsangel.

 

[Nylock]

Perhaps. Keeping up with this thread for a busy man like me is like scanning the front pages of the Metro held by passengers in a passing tube. Nonetheless, every Apron post I've caught is the same thing "Big Scary Russia, the trouble maker, probably wants to gobble up Eastern Europe again". Along those lines seems to be the overall message.

Maybe you need to slow down a little with your speed-reading then. Unless we are in different realities, the only thing I've really seen BA do on this thread is pointing out the dangers of uncritically repeating what the various news media from all sides have been reporting about events...

 

[SoleSoul]

Going to Ukraine – take body armor

Otherwise you might be shot by valiant marksmen Mrs.Ashton sent to help Maidan opposition. Listen yourself if you don't believe (warning: blood, violence, dead bodies) – Ukranian Security Service took pains for our awareness

Vive European Democracy in Ukraine!

 

[Idris2002]

http://www.b92.net/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2014&mm=03&dd=05&nav_id=89530

Interesting. . .

E2A: RT is claiming that a hacked phone call between Ashton and the Estonian foreign minister has them discussing a credible claim that the snipers who fired on people at the Maidan were hired by the anti-Yanukovich camp.

Which is "interesting. . ." but also problematic, GIVEN THAT IT'S A CLAIM COMING FROM RT.

 

[Eastern-Odyssey]

Going to Ukraine – take body armor

Otherwise you might be shot by valiant marksmen Mrs.Ashton sent to help Maidan opposition. Listen yourself if you don't believe (warning: blood, violence, dead bodies) – Ukranian Security Service took pains for our awareness

Vive European Democracy in Ukraine!

Was just about to post that, it would seem are friends from Right Sector are a little more organized than what the EU/US would like to admit. Blocking roads and burning buses to stop police reinforcements, taking control of police stations/arms depots and now snipers strategically positioned to take out both police and protesters, either Right Sector, or another group are far more well prepared, or as I've been suspecting have friends in high places. I've strongly suspected factions in the Ukrainian military and secret service were not only involved with the coup, but have strong connections to Ukraine's ultranationalists ever since learning about the attacks of coaches on the highway's.

 

[butchersapron]

Some polling from SOCIS:

 

[Eastern-Odyssey]

Some polling from SOCIS:

I wonder what percentage of people have changed their mind based on the recent events.

 

[butchersapron]

Yep me too. I saw the results of januarys polling earlier, but questions were pretty different i think. I'll try and find that in a bit anyway.

 

[laptop]

The Russians are desperate to retain the Black Sea fleet (such as it is) and the access to the Med that it provides.

One word for the historically aware: WarmWaterPort.

If for some reason Russia lost Sevastopol, and since it's effectively lost Tartus in Syria, on historical precedent it'd be smartish negotiating a basing deal with Iran.

Which would get interesting...

 

[Casually Red]

Bla bla media Janukovic died last night he had hard attack

another widely spun lie by western media