littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I agree to an extent. There are problems with this, however. The status quo is rotten, and it is particularly rotten for the Ukrainian-speaking West, as most of the industry is in the East. There is a great deal of grinding poverty in Ukraine. If I were Ukrainian, I'd be asking why the country cannot look both ways - trade with the EU and Russia.I think there's plenty of evidence that a deal with Putin's empire might be better for Ukraine than an association agreement with the EU empire.
Take aircraft manufacturing. Russia and Ukraine due to their Soviet history have cross-distributed capacity. Due to all the political posturing and bickering this capacity has been left to wither at the expense of Ukrainian jobs. Ukraine does not have the economies of scale to run an aerospace industry. But together with Russia it does. There is simply no such collaboration potential with the EU. The EU is not interested in “Russian” technology and would prefer that Russian aerospace potential disappeared completely.
My point is that Russia would actually buy Ukrainian products. The EU would not. The EU instead wants a market for its own goods. This is the same problem as during the 1990s. In the case of Russia, whole industries were shocked into competing on the global market even before they could invest in upgrades. So, naturally, they failed and the Russian market was flooded with western higher quality consumer and industrial products and services. This sort of shock is what Ukraine will face, again. The witchdoctors who came up with the notion that free trade is a panacea should be lined up against the wall and shot. No western country was exposed to free trade during its development phase. This also applies to the Asian Tigers, specifically Japan and South Korea. Ukraine is not at the point where it can have real free trade with the EU. Its WTO membership is bad enough, but at least there it has some protectionist shielding as does Russia.