Ukraine

[redsquirrel]

Yeah, that's definitely what you meant by posting the above on a thread asking whether people now supported military action against Syria.

 

[albionism]

..my mistake

 

[goldenecitrone]

Yeah, that's definitely what you meant by posting the above on a thread asking whether people now supported military action against Syria.

Yep. That's what I meant. Dumbo.

 

[Pickman's model]

By whatever means the Syrian opposition can get rid of the twat. Well remembered.

and what if they can't? where would you stand then? very happy to have other people do the work for you i note.

 

[Delroy Booth]

it is, but you've got to ask how much choice he has - he's in charge of a country with almost no earning potential except natural resouces and arms sales, he's got countless nationalities and regions just itching to be long gone, his military capability (with a couple of exceptions) is on the bones of its arse, and he's got massive social/political problems that would bring down any 'normal' government - the only thing that keeps him afloat is that everyone thinks he's a stone hard winner, and that there's little point fighting him (politically, economically, diplomatically or militarily).

he needs a regular 'win' to stay a winner - and public defeats are very bad news for someone who's politics are 'i'm a winner..'. upping the ante is a definate risk for Putin, no doubt about it - but so is doing nothing.

I think you're underestiming Russia's potential. If Russia were as powerless and dysfunctional as this then the US wouldn't spend so much time and effort trying to weaken them and engage in these destablising proxy wars like in Syria or Ukraine. If Russia was as much as a basket case now as it was under control of Yeltsin/IMF then the US would be much more relaxed about all this.

Its the threat that Russia is re-emerging from it's post soviet malaise as a serious world power once again that motivates. The US is an empire in long-term delcine, and they see nations like Russia and China as waiting in the wings patiently for this decline. They will use their military and political superiority now whilst they have it to slow down this decline, rather than wait for the superiority gap to be narrower.

Likewise the Russian military might not be at the level the Soviet Union's military was, but it's still 2nd only to the United States. It's still not something that be written off. And also worth pointing out that conventional military power doesn't actually count for much when it comes to this, nuclear brinkmanship is what a conflict between the USA and Russia would involve and that's not something that really depends on tanks and troops and so on.

 

[Delroy Booth]

and what if they can't? where would you stand then? very happy to have other people do the work for you i note.

I think that we should club together, get gc a plane ticket, a parachute and a rifle, and give him the opportunity to put his words into practice. I'm pretty skint but I'll throw a few quid in.

After all "by any means necessary" surely includes volunteering to go over to fight yourself, does it not?

 

[Pickman's model]

I think that we should club together, get gc a plane ticket, a parachute and a rifle, and give him the opportunity to put his words into practice. I'm pretty skint but I'll throw a few quid in.

After all "by any means necessary" surely includes volunteering to go over to fight yourself, does it not?

yeh it's very easy to call for something from 2000 miles away. let's give him the chance to show us what he's really made of. i'll chuck in a score.

 

[elbows]

Regarding gas, Russia has started construction of the 'south stream' pipeline which bypasses Ukraine. I don't think it will be ready for a couple of years but it alters the equation.

http://rt.com/business/serbia-gazprom-pipeline-launch-238/

Russia’s Gazprom has broken ground on a $2.7 billion pipeline in Serbia, bypassing Ukraine and ensuring unhindered transport of Russian natural gas to Europe. The Serbian PM says it is "vital" and will create thousands of jobs making it an "energy hub".

The project is expected to be finished in 2 years and will employ 20,000 people in construction, gas storage, and energy plant industries, according to Prime Minister Ivica Dacic.

"This is vital for Serbia's energy safety ... Serbia will become an energy hub," Prime Minister Dacic said Sunday, AP reported.

It is part of the South Stream pipeline project to bypass Ukraine, which currently carries 50 percent of Russian gas exported to European markets. Supply disruptions have made Ukraine an unreliable transport partner.

I should note that it's already fallen foul of 'EU regulations'.

The Energy Community, a European Union policy group, said Russian gas exporter OAO Gazprom should strike a deal with the bloc on its planned South Stream pipeline to avoid wasting money on a project that falls foul of EU law.

Russia’s agreements to build South Stream with countries including Austria, Greece, Hungary and Serbia are unlawful, Dirk Buschle, deputy director of the Vienna-based group, said in the Serbian capital Belgrade. A compromise is possible, he said.

Gazprom in December vowed to continue construction of its South Stream pipe to Europe, saying EU legal concerns could be clarified as the project moved ahead. The bloc’s regulatory arm called on member states to renegotiate their intergovernmental deals with Russia on the venture, saying the accords breached EU law on pipeline management, third-party access and pricing.

The agreements between Russia and EU members give Gazprom “100 percent control,” violating the bloc’s free-market rules, Buschle said yesterday in an interview. South Stream was declared illegal by the EU last year.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_21/02/2014_537580

 

[TomUS]

What happened to the democratically elected president of Egypt again? Remind me...

The US didn't engineer that. It was mass protests & the generals saw their chance & grabbed it.

 

[DaveCinzano]

why the fuck are North East Anti Fascists saying it's Kiev? Eejits.

From what I can see, it's captioned:

An enormous anti-fascist rally in Ukraine. Down with the Nazis! Down with the EU! Down with imperialism! (Kyle)

 

[butchersapron]

Side note on ukranian femen whilst we're having an OT hour:

Here they are celebrating the slaughter of Dresden the other week - in the middle of all this:

(spotted by Ian)

 

[frogwoman]

From what I can see, it's captioned:

to be honest i wouldn't be so sure there were no fash in that crowd. just different fash to the ukrianians.

 

[Delroy Booth]

The US didn't engineer that. It was mass protests & the generals saw their chance & grabbed it.

Would they be the same Egyptian generals who are armed, funded and trained (to the tune of many billions of dollars per year) by the United States?

The same United States that immediately backed and recognised the military coup? And turned a blind eye to the most sustained period of government repression and violence since the 1950's? So violent infact that the even the US-based (and nominally US-friendly) Human Rights Watch described events as "the most serious incident of mass unlawful killings in modern Egyptian history." (here)

 

[frogwoman]

Side note on ukranian femen whilst we're having an OT hour:

Here they are celebrating the slaughter of Dresden the other week - in the middle of all this:



(spotted by Ian)

For fuck's sake

 

[peterkro]

One problem with cutting of Ukraine's gas supply is that the country is also a conduit for pipelines to the EU, the biggest being the Brotherhood pipeline/s (which run/s close to Kiev), but also plenty of smaller ones plus some oil pipelines as well. Cut them off and lose valuable €€, also you cut off the Russian speakers/Crimea etc.

There are two other pipelines nearing completion,Putin is not stupid enough to bet the house on a pipeline through a potential unfriendly area.He won't (I don't think) cut the supply but very soon he'll have the ability to shut the Ukraine source and route round it.

 

[DaveCinzano]

to be honest i wouldn't be so sure there were no fash in that crowd. just different fash to the ukrianians.

I offer no comment on the make up of the crowd, but unless it's been recently edited, it doesn't say Kiev, and what it does say is in line with the 'Maidan & western Ukrainians a bunch of fascists & pro-EU cheerleaders’/‘Yanukovych & eastern Ukrainians a bulwark against the Nazis’ perspective of some.

 

[frogwoman]

I offer no comment on the make up of the crowd, but unless it's been recently edited, it doesn't say Kiev, and what it does say is in line with the 'Maidan & western Ukrainians a bunch of fascists & pro-EU cheerleaders’/‘Yanukovych & eastern Ukrainians a bulwark against the Nazis’ perspective of some.

what im saying is that is in Crimea.

while there will be a lot of anti-fash etc there, there are pro-russian fash in crimea and russian nationalists who hate ukrainians and i doubt all of their motives for going on that demo and waving Russian flags etc are anything to do with fighting fascism.

 

[Delroy Booth]

There are two other pipelines nearing completion,Putin is not stupid enough to bet the house on a pipeline through a potential unfriendly area.He won't (I don't think) cut the supply but very soon he'll have the ability to shut the Ukraine source and route round it.

Interesting that, thanks.

 

[DaveCinzano]

what im saying is that is in Crimea.

while there will be a lot of anti-fash etc there, there are pro-russian fash in crimea and russian nationalists who hate ukrainians and i doubt all of their motives for going on that demo and waving Russian flags etc are anything to do with fighting fascism.

I think we're talking at cross-purposes.

albionism thought that it was referring to an anti-fascist demonstration in Kiev. It is not captioned as Kiev, Ukraine, but simply ‘Ukraine’ (being a picture from Sevastopol, Ukraine).

Those on the demonstration may well self-define as ‘anti-fascist’ regardless of what we think. It is neither an actual anti-fascist demonstration in Kiev, nor a fascist/pro-fascist/Maidan etc demonstration in Kiev which has been mis-captioned, as mooted as a possibility upthread.

 

[Delroy Booth]

However, I think in the next few week's, it all ready started a little in the media, you will start to see opinion change when they start to work out who's really calling the shots. This is a problem not just for Russia, but also a problem for the EU, as they've just given a green light to Nazi revolutionaries which already have a lot of power in Eastern Europe, to start their own revolutions. Not only that the EU doesn't want a far right government, or a civil war on it's doorstep and I think the EU has just as much to loose, being Ukraine is already the key arms smuggling route to Europe and the conflict could spread out towards the Balkans, or even wider.

I've been lurking on some of the fascist and neo-nazi webforums and this is exactly what they're saying.

Anyone who saw the Polish independence day celebrations this year will know that the potential for this to spread to the rest of the former soviet bloc is very real.

 

[Coolfonz]

There are two other pipelines nearing completion,Putin is not stupid enough to bet the house on a pipeline through a potential unfriendly area.He won't (I don't think) cut the supply but very soon he'll have the ability to shut the Ukraine source and route round it.

It isn't that simple. There are many pipelines criss-crossing Ukraine, east to west, north to south, even a bit of a Druzhba offshoot taking oil...

South Stream is some way off and yes the EU have ruled the contracts illegal, that is because they are. You can't have gas suppliers also owning the pipeline system. It becomes a huge monopoly, notwithstanding Gazprom's stooges in the EU like Eni - especially ceo Scaroni - have argued that Gazprom should be allowed to own pipelines.

 

[butchersapron]

I've been lurking on some of the fascist and neo-nazi webforums and this is exactly what they're saying.

Anyone who saw the Polish independence day celebrations this year will know that the potential for this to spread to the rest of the former soviet bloc is very real.

These 'national revolutions' require much larger active social dissatisfaction (with maybe historical grudges being important for at least a large minority) with a few key triggering events to bring a mass of people to a point where it becomes a question of either/or - they can't do it on their own. How many places across eastern/southern europe have these conditions? I genuinely don't know.

 

[albionism]

From what I can see, it's captioned:

Ah, ok . Thanks.

 

[J Ed]

These 'national revolutions' require much larger active social dissatisfaction (with maybe historical grudges being important for at least a large minority) with a few key triggering events to bring a mass of people to a point where it becomes a question of either/or - they can't do it on their own. How many places across eastern/southern europe have these conditions? I genuinely don't know.

There have been pretty large and active demonstrations in Bulgaria and Hungary, both countries have sizeable far-right groups with parliamentary representation.

What I find very worrying is, following some power sharing with the far-right, the prospect of Ukraine becoming a hub of European fascism... giving financial support, training and above all an example of 'national revolution' to fascists elsewhere.

 

[butchersapron]

There have been pretty large and active demonstrations in Bulgaria and Hungary, both countries have sizeable far-right groups with parliamentary representation.

What I find very worrying is, following some power sharing with the far-right, the prospect of Ukraine becoming a hub of European fascism... giving financial support, training and above all an example of 'national revolution' to fascists elsewhere.

Well, i would say, nothing at all is settled in the Ukaraine yet - it's perfectly possible that we end up with a simple national authoritarian state like Belarus or whichever on of the baltic states is being naughty right now - can't remember - and the competing oligarchs (pro-east and pro-west) coming to an implicit agreement to fleece the state on more quiet level together in order to isolate the proper ideological far-right and quieten separatist noises - with both the EU and Putin deciding that in the medium to sort term this is the better option to achieve longer term aims. All sorts of other scenarios could play out nationally and internationally. Remember within the power battle, there is a making-money component, a bloody large one - that is in fact the power battles (in any form) can't take place without.

I can't see Ukrainian state playing the same role that Munich/bavaria did in the 20s in Germany as home to the far-right and centre of outward directed far-right activity. On the level below the state, yes, this has been a massive victory for them and the consequences across that part of europe will be being felt for a long time yet.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well, i would say, nothing at all is settled in the Ukaraine yet - it's perfectly possible that we end up with a simple national authoritarian state like Belarus or whichever on of the baltic states is being naughty right now - can't remember - and the competing oligarchs (pro-east and pro-west) coming to an implicit agreement to fleece the state on more quiet level together in order to isolate the proper ideological far-right and quieten separatist noises - with both the EU and Putin deciding that in the medium to sort term this is the better option to achieve longer term aims. All sorts of other scenarios could play out nationally and internationally. Remember within the power battle, there is a making-money component, a bloody large one - that is in fact the power battles (in any form) can't take place without.

I can't see Ukrainian state playing the same role that Munich/bavaria did in the 20s in Germany as home to the far-right and centre of outward directed far-right activity. On the level below the state, yes, this has been a massive victory for them and the consequences across that part of europe will be being felt for a long time yet.

the problem with that is there are a lot of very angry people in the ukraine, some of whom have tasted victory: and that's a tricky genie to put back in the bottle. i suspect a more likely outcome in the short term at least is increasing ethnic violence with the potential for russian involvement, at least at first through their own dodgy groups coming over the border - potentially terror and counterterror - while there is the obvious opportunity for putin to grab land through a pretence / real protection of the russian population.

 

[RedDragon]

How can they talk about a revolution when the ill-gotten assets haven't been impounded - let's start with the blonde lady's 1.5 billion and all that is stashed in London banks/property.

 

[goldenecitrone]

I think that we should club together, get gc a plane ticket, a parachute and a rifle, and give him the opportunity to put his words into practice.

About as much chance of that happening as of you and Pickman's going on a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine. A sort of UN Laurel and Hardy to cheer up the beleagured Ukrainians. Poor sods.

 

[kebabking]

How can they talk about a revolution when the ill-gotten assets haven't been impounded - let's start with the blonde lady's 1.5 billion and all that is stashed in London banks/property.

depends what your revolution is for...

 

[Delroy Booth]

Well, i would say, nothing at all is settled in the Ukaraine yet - it's perfectly possible that we end up with a simple national authoritarian state like Belarus or whichever on of the baltic states is being naughty right now - can't remember - and the competing oligarchs (pro-east and pro-west) coming to an implicit agreement to fleece the state on more quiet level together in order to isolate the proper ideological far-right and quieten separatist noises - with both the EU and Putin deciding that in the medium to sort term this is the better option to achieve longer term aims.

The problem there is though whilst I'm sure both Putin and the EU would be quite happy with this sort of agreement, the pro-western oligarchs don't seem to be in a position to make any sort of agreement that the people at the maidan are willing to abide by. The tail is wagging the dog.

I keep seeing Klitschko being touted as a potential president. Who the fuck actually thinks that this guy actually has the support of people in the country?

I'm so fucking glad Lennox Lewis beat him and put 70 stitches into his stupid nazi collobarating face.