Ukraine

[rekil]

I think it's Sevastopol. Also, it goes without saying that we should be wary of confusing nationalist sentiment with anti-fascism.

http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-protest-ukraine-upheaval-pro-russian-port-205056185.html

 

[kebabking]

...I certainly don't think Russia wants that kind of war, but the threat of that kind of massive global conflict might be the only bargaining chip he has at this point. It might be the only option that can realistically stop the US + EU in their tracks. A massive "who blinks first" type thing in other words....

there was a chap on R4 last week who felt is was a real possibility - his view was that the EU was still obsessed with its 'cooperative, win-win' end-games with regrds to Russia, while Putin not only wants to win, but he wants others (In this case, western Europe) to lose as this makes his 'win' look even bigger, both at home and for his next victim. his is a much easier game to play.

Putin must know that if the tanks rolled, or he threatened to make the tanks roll, Europe and the US would cave on Ukraine - he's got the political guts to frighten us, and we've not got the political guts - willingness - to stand up to him. he is, to some degree, a paper tiger - he could never win an actual war with Europe over Ukraine and his pockets aren't endless - but if he enemies run at the sight of a paper tiger, then he doesn't need to be able to win a military or economic confrontation...

 

[DaveCinzano]

North East Anti Fascists posted this pic...I fear it's bullshit.
View attachment 49082

The watermarked URL is for a Crimean news website in Sevastopol, with a live webcam currently up of the same car park/square, now largely empty.

 

[Delroy Booth]

there was a chap on R4 last week who felt is was a real possibility - his view was that the EU was still obsessed with its 'cooperative, win-win' end-games with regrds to Russia, while Putin not only wants to win, but he wants others (In this case, western Europe) to lose as this makes his 'win' look even bigger, both at home and for his next victim. his is a much easier game to play.

Putin must know that if the tanks rolled, or he threatened to make the tanks roll, Europe and the US would cave on Ukraine - he's got the political guts to frighten us, and we've not got the political guts - willingness - to stand up to him. he is, to some degree, a paper tiger - he could never win an actual war with Europe over Ukraine and his pockets aren't endless - but if he enemies run at the sight of a paper tiger, then he doesn't need to be able to win a military or economic confrontation...

Big gamble if it goes wrong though, don't you think? I agree with the logic, it's extremely worrying.

 

[DaveCinzano]

FAO albionism- it's Nakhimov Square in Sevastopol, Crimea.
Nakhimov Square now:



Nakhimov Square from video:



See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sevastopol._Nakhimov_square.JPG
http://cd-2013.visitsevastopol.org/...mea.ua/en/sevastopol-sights/details/1624.html

 

[J Ed]

If I were Putin one option I would seriously consider is funding and training opposition groups in Greece and Spain for a start.

 

[Idris2002]

If I were Putin one option I would seriously consider is funding and training opposition groups in Greece and Spain for a start.

This is a joke, right?

 

[frogwoman]

I think it's Sevastopol. Also, it goes without saying that we should be wary of confusing nationalist sentiment with anti-fascism.

http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-protest-ukraine-upheaval-pro-russian-port-205056185.html

Exactly.

 

[J Ed]

This is a joke, right?

No?

 

[DaveCinzano]

If I were Putin one option I would seriously consider is funding and training opposition groups in Greece and Spain for a start.

Nobody would expect the SPANISH INSURRECTION

 

[TomUS]

And if this is the new preferred method of US-backed regime change post-Iraq......

It's not. Obama isn't crazy or stupid enough to intentionally provoke a major confrontation with Putin over Ukraine. This isn't G.W. Bush & the neocons.

 

[Idris2002]

No?

A bit OT, but the other day Spain jailed a young woman for calling on Twitter for the left-wing paramilitary group GRAPO to resume the armed struggle. So someone somewhere thinks it might not be an entirely incredible threat.

 

[Pickman's model]

No?

you don't know if it's a joke or not?

 

[J Ed]

A bit OT, but the other day Spain jailed a young woman for calling on Twitter for the left-wing paramilitary group GRAPO to resume the armed struggle. So someone somewhere thinks it might not be an entirely incredible threat.

I dunno if the bunker is quite ready to resume false flag attacks.

I don't see what's so incredible about what I'm saying though, RT is very indulgent with comparatively tiny and ineffectual left-wing groups here, they would certainly find more fertile ground in Spain and Greece.

 

[Pickman's model]

If I were Putin one option I would seriously consider is funding and training opposition groups in Greece and Spain for a start.

if i was putin i would be thinking about 'volunteers' to help the russian ukrainians in the event the situation further deteriorates; cf the german freikorps in the baltic states

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Ukranian Insurgent Army more like.

Same black and red background, but that definitely says Пра́вий се́ктор (Right Sector) on the front.

 

[Delroy Booth]

It's not. Obama isn't crazy or stupid enough to intentionally provoke a major confrontation with Putin over Ukraine. This isn't G.W. Bush & the neocons.

What happened to the democratically elected president of Egypt again? Remind me...

 

[kebabking]

Big gamble if it goes wrong though, don't you think? I agree with the logic, it's extremely worrying.

it is, but you've got to ask how much choice he has - he's in charge of a country with almost no earning potential except natural resouces and arms sales, he's got countless nationalities and regions just itching to be long gone, his military capability (with a couple of exceptions) is on the bones of its arse, and he's got massive social/political problems that would bring down any 'normal' government - the only thing that keeps him afloat is that everyone thinks he's a stone hard winner, and that there's little point fighting him (politically, economically, diplomatically or militarily).

he needs a regular 'win' to stay a winner - and public defeats are very bad news for someone who's politics are 'i'm a winner..'. upping the ante is a definate risk for Putin, no doubt about it - but so is doing nothing.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Indeed, fuck him. But it's not just him that's fucked, is it? It's slightly over half the country of 45 million people, Jews, ethnic russians, left-wingers etc, who are fucked, not just him. Do you have such a glib attitude to their fate too?

No. You seem to though.

 

[Delroy Booth]

No. You seem to though.

iirc weren't you a big advocate of the UK and USA bombing Syria too?

 

[goldenecitrone]

iirc weren't you a big advocate of the UK and USA bombing Syria too?

You seem a bit confused, Delroy.

 

[Eastern-Odyssey]

Thinking out loud here - trigger warning for rank stupidity

Put yourself in Putin's shoes. What would you do? Would you passively accept this, and risk your own position and authority within Russia in the process, or would you fight back, even if it carried a risk of starting another world war?

What kind of fightback would you do if you Putin? Because I had a very worrying thought when I was thinking about this that realistically, the only way to prevent the EU from fast-tracking the post-coup government to EU + NATO membership now would be to escalate things, to threaten all out war. Not with the intention of doing so, I certainly don't think Russia wants that kind of war, but the threat of that kind of massive global conflict might be the only bargaining chip he has at this point. It might be the only option that can realistically stop the US + EU in their tracks. A massive "who blinks first" type thing in other words.

They could use econonic means to achieve these aims. Cutting off the gas, not giving them loans etc. That would have some impact no doubt, but would it be enough? yes it would be damaging in the short term but would it not also alienate Russian-speaking Ukrainians? And remember, if it's a "who can spend the most to prop up Ukraine" competition my money is on the west. For all the talk of austerity and "there's no money left" in the EU at the moment it's funny isn't it how they can always find a few spare billions for situations like this. The IMF isn't short of a few quid either.

And if this is the new preferred method of US-backed regime change post-Iraq then where else is next? Belorussia? Iran? China?

In all honesty I think Putin is in a bind, although I don't think he has to worry to much yet. Everything is being controlled by the far right elements who don't want EU, or NATO membership, or at least only on their terms. At the moment there is a lot of duplicity going on, as Alexander Dugin has mentioned on the Ukraine crisis these groups want a "third path" and most certainly don't want IMF loans, EU membership, or the EU/US messing with Ukrainian affairs. What you currently have at the moment is the main backed EU parties vying for power in the government, using the standard kosher EU political speech and the far rights groups allowing them to get on with it, as it retains EU/US backing while they take control of much of the country were there is still a power vaccum. Despite that the Far Right groups can only take control of the West and unless they change the constitution to allow the Ukrainian military to step in (they currently arguing that they have no constitutional right to step in for internal political crisis) then their going to retain political deadlock. The problem lies with when the military groups on either side decide to take control of East, or the West. In this case Putin has two choices, send special forces to back Eastern (Crimean) police forces to take back the Western side of the country, or wait for sectarian violence to break out in the East and move in troup's to protect the East under the conditionality of humanitarian intervention.

However, I think in the next few week's, it all ready started a little in the media, you will start to see opinion change when they start to work out who's really calling the shots. This is a problem not just for Russia, but also a problem for the EU, as they've just given a green light to Nazi revolutionaries which already have a lot of power in Eastern Europe, to start their own revolutions. Not only that the EU doesn't want a far right government, or a civil war on it's doorstep and I think the EU has just as much to loose, being Ukraine is already the key arms smuggling route to Europe and the conflict could spread out towards the Balkans, or even wider.

 

[Delroy Booth]

You seem a bit confused, Delroy.

Sincere question, I can't remember fully. Were you or weren't you?

 

[goldenecitrone]

Sincere question, I can't remember fully. Were you or weren't you?

No, I wasn't. I'd still like to see Assad toppled though.

 

[Eastern-Odyssey]

North East Anti Fascists posted this pic...I fear it's bullshit.
View attachment 49082

I see to many Russian flags for an anti-fascist parade, that's probably just the former government supporters.

 

[butchersapron]

Same black and red background, but that definitely says Пра́вий се́ктор (Right Sector) on the front.

I was talking more of the implied continuity. Astonishing thing to see on the front of the telegraph in 2014.

 

[Pickman's model]

it is, but you've got to ask how much choice he has - he's in charge of a country with almost no earning potential except natural resouces and arms sales, he's got countless nationalities and regions just itching to be long gone, his military capability (with a couple of exceptions) is on the bones of its arse, and he's got massive social/political problems that would bring down any 'normal' government - the only thing that keeps him afloat is that everyone thinks he's a stone hard winner, and that there's little point fighting him (politically, economically, diplomatically or militarily).

he needs a regular 'win' to stay a winner - and public defeats are very bad news for someone who's politics are 'i'm a winner..'. upping the ante is a definate risk for Putin, no doubt about it - but so is doing nothing.

i'd have thought that russia had great earning potential, which would be made concrete if only the investment was put into developing it. it's not like a country with a population in the region of 145 million is going to be entirely devoid of talent and unable to diversify its exports.

 

[Delroy Booth]

No, I wasn't. I'd still like to see Assad toppled though.

Right I remember now, you weren't in favour of miltary attacks, but you'd still like to see the US-backed jihadi's overthrow Assad, just without our help. Gotcha.

And btw I'd like to see Assad toppled too, but not to be replaced with a government based on ISIS or Jabhat al-nusrah.

 

[redsquirrel]

Sincere question, I can't remember fully. Were you or weren't you?

It's time for Assad to go. By whatever means.

 

[goldenecitrone]

By whatever means the Syrian opposition can get rid of the twat. Well remembered.