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Ukraine

I'm seeing a lot of media that suggests Putin still has the ability to broker power here; that can't be right can it? There's no chance of an invasion and short of that only option is to finance Crimean groups etc.

I heard one of the Kiev politicos admit tonight they were going to have to talk to Putin. Russias still their biggest trading partner, energy supplier, employs a serious amount of Ukrainians. Theres a serious amount of stuff they have to have a chat about. Yanukovich might be gone, the reality of Ukraine and its essential and immediate interests certainly hasnt gone with him.
And the districts that happen to produce Ukraines wealth are the districts that right now are rejecting the coups authority...comprising just over half the population . These realities are inescapable no matter how hard they wave the flags and sing the anthem in Kiev.

The Kiev crowd still desperately need the east and Russia no matter how much they hate them . The Eastern blocs backs are well up and their noses are out of joint. Putin will be necessary ...essential..to calm them down and accept Kievs authority. And calming them down will require some sort of deal coming out of Kiev. Which,ultimately, Putin will have to broker .

thats providing war doesnt break out mind . which could well happen . What I hope the Russians are doing right now is trying to keep the ethnic Russians calm . Which will be no easy task.
 
It seems from that article that the EU and America are looking to work together to raise money for Ukraine. Now that means the country is in real trouble - they might get an IMF loan! :eek:
I think i read somewhere ages ago when this all started that any deal with the EU would involve the IMF.

pocketscience when they said 'fallout' i don't think they meant that kind :eek:
 
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So now the Olympics are over what's Russia gonna do? I don't think the liklihood of them rolling in the tanks to partition the country is very high, but I noticed Susan Rice the national security adviser to President Obama say that Moscow would be making a "grave mistake" if it sent any kind of military aid to eastern Ukraine or Crimea. Now the fact that the US has had to make such an overt warning (a grave mistake, the language is significant) suggests that they believe there's a small but realistic chance of Russia intervening militarily.

I can't see Russia simply doing nothing though. I mean after the Syria mess, watching one of their key allies in the middle-east descend into anarchy and bloodshed, seeing another one of their key allies descend into a similar state would surely be intolerable. If the new government threatens the naval base in Sevastapol then Russia simply has to react, it was be a huge admission of weakness that would damage Putin's own legitimacy if he did not react. After all, will Russians accept such humiliations? What will the Russian people think of Putin if he's incapable of asserting Russia's power in it's own traditional sphere of influence? His well-cultivated image as a strong leader restoring Russia to it's natural place on the world stage after 2 decades of chaos and corruption is going to fall apart unless he demonstrates a capacity to intervene in situations like this. So, politically, simply putting up with it and passively observing as the EU menacingly expands further and further towards Russia's borders isn't an option if Putin wishes to retain his popularity in the country. But the other side of this calculation is that by reacting too harshly Russia could escalate this into a full-scale civil war within Ukraine and that could lead to a direct military confrontation with the West.

I don't like to make predictions on a situation so complex but i think that in the eastern Ukraine there will be no military aid, and I don't even think that the ethnic Russians in Ukraine are looking to start a civil war, but I do think that Crimea, as home of the Black Sea Fleet, is a potential conflict area. We've seen "citizens militia's" start to be formed in Crimea and there's a realistic chance that if the provisional Ukrainian government shows any inclination to get rid of those ships then Crimea could break away, with Russian support and recognition.

Just as an aside when I did my first IR year at uni we were given a presentation on potential "fault-lines" in the world that could potentially cause major conflicts. This included China (+ North Korea) and Japan, sunni and shi'ite civil war in Iraq and Syria, and an attempt to push Ukraine into the EU and split the country between east and west. I find it awfully frightening that these hypothetical end of the world WW3 scenarios we were discussing in our first few IR seminars back in 2006 are literally taking place right now.
 
What is happening in Parliament? It is 450 seats, Party of Regions had 189, Communists 30 odd, but ousting Yanu got 324 I think, and lowering standing of Russian language got 200 and something.

Are some PofR backing Maidan to give it Parly majority? If so that does changes dynamic.

Apparently those in East believe they are being forced to vote against their will though.

Seems like a pretty critical point to get to bottom of.
 
So now the Olympics are over what's Russia gonna do? I don't think the liklihood of them rolling in the tanks to partition the country is very high, but I noticed Susan Rice the national security adviser to President Obama say that Moscow would be making a "grave mistake" if it sent any kind of military aid to eastern Ukraine or Crimea. Now the fact that the US has had to make such an overt warning (a grave mistake, the language is significant) suggests that they believe there's a small but realistic chance of Russia intervening militarily.

I can't see Russia simply doing nothing though. I mean after the Syria mess, watching one of their key allies in the middle-east descend into anarchy and bloodshed, seeing another one of their key allies descend into a similar state would surely be intolerable. If the new government threatens the naval base in Sevastapol then Russia simply has to react, it was be a huge admission of weakness that would damage Putin's own legitimacy if he did not react. After all, will Russians accept such humiliations? What will the Russian people think of Putin if he's incapable of asserting Russia's power in it's own traditional sphere of influence? His well-cultivated image as a strong leader restoring Russia to it's natural place on the world stage after 2 decades of chaos and corruption is going to fall apart unless he demonstrates a capacity to intervene in situations like this. So, politically, simply putting up with it and passively observing as the EU menacingly expands further and further towards Russia's borders isn't an option if Putin wishes to retain his popularity in the country. But the other side of this calculation is that by reacting too harshly Russia could escalate this into a full-scale civil war within Ukraine and that could lead to a direct military confrontation with the West.

I don't like to make predictions on a situation so complex but i think that in the eastern Ukraine there will be no military aid, and I don't even think that the ethnic Russians in Ukraine are looking to start a civil war, but I do think that Crimea, as home of the Black Sea Fleet, is a potential conflict area. We've seen "citizens militia's" start to be formed in Crimea and there's a realistic chance that if the provisional Ukrainian government shows any inclination to get rid of those ships then Crimea could break away, with Russian support and recognition.

Just as an aside when I did my first IR year at uni we were given a presentation on potential "fault-lines" in the world that could potentially cause major conflicts. This included China (+ North Korea) and Japan, sunni and shi'ite civil war in Iraq and Syria, and an attempt to push Ukraine into the EU and split the country between east and west. I find it awfully frightening that these hypothetical end of the world WW3 scenarios we were discussing in our first few IR seminars back in 2006 are literally taking place right now.

Yeah, if those ships are threatened or if the Ukrainian government try and dislodge them it will be war for sure.
 
What is happening in Parliament? It is 450 seats, Party of Regions had 189, Communists 30 odd, but ousting Yanu got 324 I think, and lowering standing of Russian language got 200 and something.

Are some PofR backing Maidan to give it Parly majority? If so that does changes dynamic.

Apparently those in East believe they are being forced to vote against their will though.

Seems like a pretty critical point to get to bottom of.
The Party of the Regions MPs were all at a meeting (which had been planned for a long time) in the east when the votes took place.They have now ditched their leader so whether they made themselves scarce to avoid supporting their leader or it was planned by the right as the best time to take over I don't know.
 
Wotan Jugend, who apparently have branches in Ukraine, Russia and the Czech republic and whove been active in the insurrection.

Interestingly Sergiy Chapligin, who I think controls 'Right Sector" follows them on VK (Russian version of Facebook).

He also has another interesting thing on his VK page from last night, paraphrasing and not for certain as my Russian is shit and it's Ukrainian text talk, but they have spotters in Sevastopol which have seen Yanukovych leaving for the Russian port with 7 jeeps and 3 armoured personnel carrier. Something about him heading to the Russian landing ship Azov and he asks for them to delay, or follow. He also remarks that they want to see him hung in the square, so if that was to happen it may not go down to well. Being these are heavy armed militant groups, even in peace time let alone after a coup, I'm assuming they plan to apprehend him while avoiding an international war with Russia.
 
The Party of the Regions MPs were all at a meeting (which had been planned for a long time) in the east when the votes took place.They have now ditched their leader so whether they made themselves scarce to avoid supporting their leader or it was planned by the right as the best time to take over I don't know.

They also spent the whole of yesterday removing every member of the previous government and appointing their own men. Plus you have to be under the impression that most of these people are under duress. I wouldn't want to be voting with a bunch of armed guards outside the parliament.
 
Hum some interesting thing coming from another officer in the Right Sector. They have taken over ТРК Вінниччина which I think is the news channel of the Ukraine Communist Party, according to all accounts the editorial policy will be different, I'm assuming that means daily Lord Haw-Haw propaganda. He also calls for people to take control of Yanukovych supporters homes and offices etc.
 
I'm surprised I have to make this comment, a longish one at that, but what I said throughout is "to do with what were talking about here". The other day, I think before any news sources were linked on this thread, given the Ukrainian nationalism expressed, I applied general knowledge & speculated that some Israeli state managers may want to fly Judaic Ukrainians out of the country to Tel Aviv airport, then onwards to a colony in eastern Palestine. That scenario has been a consistent part of Israeli state planning & practice since 1948, & that is nothing new to most readers here. Ethiopia was more recent but the policy originated with respect to North Africa & Iraq.

It was others who posted links to events concerning Judaic Ukrainians (ethnicising & religioising-ethnicising processes are not one of my central interests), & in this thread I have commented on a number of kindly linked pieces, including on the topic in hand. It was you yourself who linked to a Jewish Chronicle article about 'zhids', & we all know about the associated discussion in Britain: many, many Tottenham fans proudly call themselves & their club yids, they celebrate the word, but some national commentators (Baddiel, for example) have argued in effect that the word is necessarily anti-Judaic & can never be used in the neutral or affectionate or celebratory way that we have witnessed with, for example, 'nigger' & 'queer'.

Given your link I simply made the point that if any Judaic Ukrainians feel they have to leave I would prefer they came to Britain rather than a colony in eastern Palestine. I'm surprised you find that opinion "annoying" - I, in fact, find this political possibility annoying, not least for Judaic Ukrainians, who up until the other month didn't have their lives disturbed by such attention.

Opinions expressed here concerning possible outcomes of Ukraine's political turmoil have included opposition to the growth of nationalism of any sort. My opinion concerning whether citizens stay in the country or not is of that order, neither more nor less. It is rational & reasonable to offer an opinion on the future of all Ukrainian citizens, including those who identify as Jews or are, unfortunately, castigated as one even if they do not self-identify that way.

Lastly, please also note it was not me but brogdale who yesterday afternoon (page 31) linked to the Guardian carrying an excerpted translation from the 3rd largest Hebrew-language daily, Maariv:
"A Ukrainian rabbi has urged Kiev’s Jews to leave the city and even the state. Rabbi Moshe Reuven Azman, told Ma’ariv, an Israeli newspaper:
"'I told my congregation to leave the city center or the city all together and if possible the country too. I don’t want to tempt fate. But there are constant warnings concerning intentions to attack Jewish institutions.'
"Edward Dolinsky, head of the umbrella organization of Ukraine’s Jews described the situation in Kiev as dire, told Maariv 'We contacted Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman requesting he assist us with securing the community there.'"
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-live-updates#block-5308c041e4b04f22a42ea07a (3:27pm; my emphases)

You also linked yesterday evening (page 34) to this item from an Israeli outlet:
"[the protests] have led to a worrying upswing in violence against Ukrainian Jewry [. . ., &] the Ukrainian police forces - who are loyal to Yanukovych - have been making open threats against the Jewish community.
"They [the police, or at least some policemen] have also been promoting anti-Semitic propaganda.
"Recent reports indicated that extremists have been targeting [dead link, unfortunately] the Jewish community.
"Anti-Semitism in Ukraine has picked up throughout the unrest, which began in late November. In January, unknown assailants stabbed a hareidi man [another dead link] in Kiev as he was making his way home from synagogue on a Friday night earlier this week, anti-Semitic graffiti [it works: 6 Feb] was sprayed on a Holocaust memorial in the city of Alexandria.
"Last year, the president of the All-Ukrainian Jewish Congress narrowly escaped with his life after a bomb was hurled at his car [dead link] as it pulled out from an office."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/wap/Item.aspx?type=0&item=177727 (my emphases)

I placed emphases to draw attention to the general & homogenising nature of the report. Importantly it is consistent with the politics of 'the new anti-semitism', a politics that is being used to bolster support for Judaic-Israeli supremacism throughout the former Mandated Palestine. Also please note no evidence was offered that the stabbing & bomb incidents were motivated by anti-Judaism; one can suspect, one can assume, but we need to recognise this. (The 6 Feb report indicates at least a public unity of Ukrainians in Alexandria: "Many residents, Jews and non-Jews alike, reacted in anger, demanding that authorities track down the perpetrators and deal with them harshly".)

The source, which you didn't remark on, is Arutz Sheva (Hebrew for 'Channel Seven'), going under the equally benign web addy, israelnationalnews.com. It's based in eastern Palestine, in a Judaic colony (Beit El, Hebrew for 'House of God'), & is the principal mouthpiece for so-called religious Zionism, the neo-Zionism of the post-1967 colonists. It also produces a free newspaper delivered to 150 000 homes. Not surprisingly it was founded & still run by a religious skool, not surprisingly named Beit El Yeshiva, on the north-east edge of Ramallah. Its own English-language website has the definitive strapline, 'The Torah World Gateway'. What beckons beyond the gate, the consequences of this colonising project, is unlikely to ever be benign.

What concerns me not least in all this reporting is the extent to which Judaic Ukrainians have been subjected to slighting & the threat & exercise of violence. Crucially, how many incidents have occurred, & how many have been publicised? What is the evidence supporting (1) the good rabbi's call to his congregation - the Guardian journo's alarmism misrepresented him - "to leave the city center or the city all together and if possible the country too", & (2) Dolinsky's appeal to the Israeli Foreign Minister "requesting he assist us with securing the community"? Precious little has been publicised so far.

As far as Spiney goes, please be polite, there's no need for arrogant bravado & vacuous threats. You speak as a controller, like a state official such as a policeman, & you neither have that role nor power. Please don't assume, ascribing to me meanings that are not intended; rather, if something strikes you as untoward, just be normal: please do the polite thing & simply inquire. No need for aggression. I think I had succeeded in expressing myself in the way I intended, & re-reading my comments of the last day I believe I have. So please discard the maligned view you have of what I said & instead take it for what it is, aided by my above elaboration.

And Spanky asks rhetorically, "Not keen on the Jews are you?" Please see, not least, my final point below. Truth is I'm not keen on homogenising groups of people, but as you ask, as much as any other group of religioised or ethnicised peeps - so neither more than less - and I malign none. The language of "the Jews" is alien to me; in fact Shlomo Sand has marshalled interesting evidence & offered a series of arguments countering the idea & existence of 'a Jewish people' or 'a Jewish nation', focusing instead on (1) the political project (a religioising-ethnicising kind of supremacism over Mandated Palestine) to advocate such a thing, & (2) the political project of convincing those linked to Judaism, believers or not, that they should primarily live as religioised &/or ethnicised people of the Jew kind; & we can contrast this with the Christian kind, the Brit kind, or the alleged pure untainted Ukrainian kind. As Max Blumenthal has put it on his current tour promoting 'Goliath', many of the advocates of Jews constituting a people are living high on the ziocaine flowing from J positive blood.

A final, general, point. As we know, tone of voice & facial expression is lacking from our medium, so let's all be generous in how we interpret what is said. Sometimes how we interpret is clouded by previous encounters, & what is currently said is placed within that, rather than in the present conversation.

Weirdo
 
.If anything perhaps he should regret letting the situation get to a point where nazis were allowed to build great big fucking barricades and batter and shoot coppers with impunity.

Dictator? Shitator more like.
 
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Well, he did order his snipers to kill dozens of protesters. So fuck him.

I think they'd have hung Yanokuvych no matter what he did, snipers or no snipers. That was after all the demand of the neo-nazis involved in Maidan from day 1, long before any snipers turned out.

Indeed, fuck him. But it's not just him that's fucked, is it? It's slightly over half the country of 45 million people, Jews, ethnic russians, left-wingers etc, who are fucked, not just him. Do you have such a glib attitude to their fate too?
 
Thinking out loud here - trigger warning for rank stupidity

Put yourself in Putin's shoes. What would you do? Would you passively accept this, and risk your own position and authority within Russia in the process, or would you fight back, even if it carried a risk of starting another world war?

What kind of fightback would you do if you Putin? Because I had a very worrying thought when I was thinking about this that realistically, the only way to prevent the EU from fast-tracking the post-coup government to EU + NATO membership now would be to escalate things, to threaten all out war. Not with the intention of doing so, I certainly don't think Russia wants that kind of war, but the threat of that kind of massive global conflict might be the only bargaining chip he has at this point. It might be the only option that can realistically stop the US + EU in their tracks. A massive "who blinks first" type thing in other words.

They could use econonic means to achieve these aims. Cutting off the gas, not giving them loans etc. That would have some impact no doubt, but would it be enough? yes it would be damaging in the short term but would it not also alienate Russian-speaking Ukrainians? And remember, if it's a "who can spend the most to prop up Ukraine" competition my money is on the west. For all the talk of austerity and "there's no money left" in the EU at the moment it's funny isn't it how they can always find a few spare billions for situations like this. The IMF isn't short of a few quid either.

And if this is the new preferred method of US-backed regime change post-Iraq then where else is next? Belorussia? Iran? China?
 
I heard from an Antifa facebook page that there was a massive anti-fash
rally in Kiev today. Anyone know if it's true? There was a picture of a large,
indistinct crowd, but no text at all..Info anyone?
 
One problem with cutting of Ukraine's gas supply is that the country is also a conduit for pipelines to the EU, the biggest being the Brotherhood pipeline/s (which run/s close to Kiev), but also plenty of smaller ones plus some oil pipelines as well. Cut them off and lose valuable €€, also you cut off the Russian speakers/Crimea etc.
 
I heard from an Antifa facebook page that there was a massive anti-fash
rally in Kiev today. Anyone know if it's true? There was a picture of a large,
indistinct crowd, but no text at all..Info anyone?

Be fucking brave of them if they did given the other lot seem to be armed to the teeth.
 
One problem with cutting of Ukraine's gas supply is that the country is also a conduit for pipelines to the EU, the biggest being the Brotherhood pipeline/s (which run/s close to Kiev), but also plenty of smaller ones plus some oil pipelines as well. Cut them off and lose valuable €€, also you cut off the Russian speakers/Crimea etc.

Exactly, it's not only a vital source of revenue but the network of oil pipelines that run through Ukraine also service pro-Russia and more neutral areas. Doing that carries risks of further weakening Russia's ties with its allies. And would it even work? Wouldn't it just strengthen the resolve of the far-right nationalists involved, and bring more to their side?

But a brief statement saying any recognition of the post-coup government by any country would be considered an act of aggression might be able to achieve the desired effect without these downsides. But there's also a small chance that those states would call the bluff and then what? Frightening prospect all this I hope something gets worked out before it comes to anything like that.
 
Venezuela, they hope.

Of course the protests in Venezuela are just the "brave and defiant middle-classes" (courtesy of the Rory Carroll in the Guardian) trying to stop the evil socialist dicator from winning any more elections by bribing those genetically subhuman indigenous people with education and social welfare programs.

And it clearly has absolutely nothing to do with the fact Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves. Nope. It's about freedom.
 
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