Ukraine
- Thread starter Zabo
- Start date
What conditions would you accept as legitimate? And would you apply these universally? (you can see where I'm going with this
)
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Ukraine was not independent either. It was being pulled at from east and west even then - Habsburgs and Russians.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Even the name 'Ukraine' comes from the Russian for 'borderland' or militarised border region.
And Poles!
SpineyNorman
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What conditions would you accept as legitimate? And would you apply these universally? (you can see where I'm going with this
Don't think I can just list the conditions under which partition would be a good idea but I can give an example where I think it might be a better option than the status quo.
I think a case could be made for a two state solution in Israel/Palestine for example, but there would still be consequences - difference being it may be a lesser evil than the current situation. (I don't really know whether I'm for a one or two state solution there tbh - I see serious problems with both)
That doesn't really apply in Ukraine though.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
im a region in which borders have often counted for less than affiliations, and borders drawn have been regardless of those, how do we get a partition to work? really?
SpineyNorman
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But Ukraine as a nation (as opposed to nation state) has a much longer history. I don't think anyone's ever spoken of or considered the idea of east and west ukraine as separate nations. What would be the basis for separate eastern Ukrainian and western Ukrainian states?
I hate it when people point this out as if it therefore excuses what's going on now. I'm not saying you're doing that btw, just that I've seen people make that comment IRL as if it's some hugely insightful piece of information when it's really not, when actually many towns, counties, regions and nations have names that include some reference to being a border in the name, Denmark spring to mind, the historic county of the Marches on the English/Welsh border too, that's not unusual at all really.
Massive ethnic cleansing has been the traditional solution in Eastern Europe. Two world wars, genocide and a complete redrawing of the maps and it's still a mess.
The whole concept of what is the Ukraine and who is a Ukrainian is a hugely contested one.
ViolentPanda
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
SpineyNorman
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Where's that from?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/27167187
Russian jets 'entered Ukraine airspace'
The US says Russian military aircraft have entered Ukrainian airspace several times in the past 24 hours, amid rising tension in the east of the country.
A Pentagon spokesman told the BBC that the incidents had happened mainly near the border with Russia, but gave no further details.
Russian jets 'entered Ukraine airspace'
The US says Russian military aircraft have entered Ukrainian airspace several times in the past 24 hours, amid rising tension in the east of the country.
A Pentagon spokesman told the BBC that the incidents had happened mainly near the border with Russia, but gave no further details.
newbie
undisambiguated
The fact that the local process is long and boring doesn't mean it's not a partition (what else is it?). Nor does it alter the principle you were promoting, which awards a right of veto to a majority elsewhere if a region wants partition.
Similarly the risks aren't yours to decide. Strikes me there are significant economic, defence and diplomatic risks to rUK if Scotland leaves, but that's for us to deal with, it's their decision. The risks in Sudan were obvious, and there's a post-independence civil war there now.
Personally I haven't the faintest idea if the people of eastern Ukraine want to seceed, but the idea is on the table, and they're the only people entitled to make the decision. Not Western Ukraine, not Russia, not the EU, and not the warmongering Kerry who's looking increasingly out of his depth.
And the fact Russian bonds are nearly junk is a quite worrying sign. Might it be that Russia's not even going to wait for the sham referendum to move in? The bond markets would seem to be expecting a war.
This could be a hideous miscalculation from Russia, because invading another sovereign state that has it's indepedence guaranteed by treaty would force the west/NATO to act. If the west doesn't act then NATO and all the expansion they've done in the last 20 or 30 years is wasted as the ex-Soviet states lose confidence in the willingness of the USA to defend them from Russia.
I still don't think he's wanting to invade, I think Putin and Lavrov want those regions to stay inside Ukraine so they can be a continual source of civil strife within Ukraine rather than to incorporate them into Russia and risk a war with NATO in the process.
This could be a hideous miscalculation from Russia, because invading another sovereign state that has it's indepedence guaranteed by treaty would force the west/NATO to act. If the west doesn't act then NATO and all the expansion they've done in the last 20 or 30 years is wasted as the ex-Soviet states lose confidence in the willingness of the USA to defend them from Russia.
I still don't think he's wanting to invade, I think Putin and Lavrov want those regions to stay inside Ukraine so they can be a continual source of civil strife within Ukraine rather than to incorporate them into Russia and risk a war with NATO in the process.
SpineyNorman
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People in the west of Ukraine don't get any say in the matter then?
Of course another difference is that Scotland has existed as a country and as a nation since fuck knows when.
And the Eastern, Russian speaking, parts only became part of Ukraine in the 1920's.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
it feels almost like I'm talking from the mid 70s to say it, but afaik the NATO class planes that could contest incursions are far better than the Russian MiG variants. But russia has loads of them, whereas NATO not so many of its typhoons, eurofighters whatever available. Or the pilots to fly them.
I am going on fear and half remembered data though.
And still has it's own law, it's own customs, institutions and so on, making a comparison with eastern ukraine very difficult. It has clearly defined nationalist symbolism including anthems and flags and all the rest of it.
Scotland was, and still is, a nation in it's own right. Scotland's not being partitioned either they're being asked if they wish to remain part of the Union, which is a different thing entirely with a history that's unique to those nations that make up The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The nation has existed long after the Scottish state merged/was taken over by England between 1603-1707, even if there is no such thing as a scottish state any more that has persisted for hundreds of years.
The referendum isn't trying to partition a nation, Scotland was and is already a nation, just one without a sovereign state. It's asking whether they still want to be part of the constitutional settlement of several nations united via the Crown into one unitary state that was arranged between 1603-1707.
Now if we were to have a referendum within one of those nations, so Yorkshire breaking away from England, Aberdeenshire breaking away from Scotland, Snowdonia breaking away from Wales etc, that might be a more accurate comparison than England and Scotland, which have always been seperate nations with a shared state.
I'm sure they are but I don't want to be in a position where we're having dogfights over Ukraine where could that escalate too? Who's gonna the breaks on then?
These are the sorts of situations, like Cuba in the 1960's, that can very quickly end up getting out of hand and fast. I don't like this one bit.
SpineyNorman
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Because you're talking about splitting their country in two ffs
If they're not consulted in some way they won't accept the partition of their country as being legitimate any more than the Irish accepted the partition of their island to be legitimate. I'm afraid "why should they" won't cut it, you'd create one state which refuses to recognise the legitimate existence of another state on it's borders, it's a recipe for war man think about it.
newbie
undisambiguated
so you would award a veto to people elsewhere? Oppose a referendum on secession because, from afar, it's not looking like a great idea? That's the recipe for peace, right?
All sorts of claims are being made about what the Eastern Ukrainians want. Tanks are rumbling, warplanes are breaking the sound barrier, speculation is rife about air superiority, this is looking like it might turn particularly unpleasant. Of all the options available, what should be done?
All sorts of claims are being made about what the Eastern Ukrainians want. Tanks are rumbling, warplanes are breaking the sound barrier, speculation is rife about air superiority, this is looking like it might turn particularly unpleasant. Of all the options available, what should be done?
sunny jim
A pikey fluffy type
Well, if partition isn't on the cards then I'd say it means war. Russia isn't about to let its nationals (the millions of people who live in eastern Ukraine who hold Russian passports as well as Ukrainian passports) be subjugated into Untermensch by the fascist rulers in Kiev. Hopefully it'll be like Georgia and South Ossetia where the Russians went in, done the business and didn't occupy the country, but I wont hold my breath for them not occupying afterwards.
Surely partition is better than that scenario?
Surely partition is better than that scenario?
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
I can't imagine Ukraine would be a viable state in its current form if a particularly nasty battle takes place there. Pinning it all on Russia is certainly one strategy, not sure that will wash on the people being bombed.
Well I think the Kiev regime needs to stop coming out with stupid and provocative comments about Russia wanting to "start the third world war" and start taking the disarming of the far-right paramilities in their area seriously. There's no point Kerry and Lavrov signing treaties to disarm the militias if Kiev isn't prepared to follow it up. However they can't do this because their popular support depends upon incorporating a large chunk of that far-right support, they depend upon the far-right as a makeshift police/national guard, their own legitimacy rests upon the idea they're at war (of some kind) with Russia, so they can't even if the US wants to make them, you can't persuade a government to commit political suicide. They knock this kind of talk on the head before they get what they wish for.
Russia isn't going to back down an inch until Kiev tones down the rhetoric and stops these mad little military forays into the East. And even if Russia wants to, I don't think they have puppet-master style control over the seperatists in the East like the media supposes, I suspect they have a lot of influence but they don't control it in this crude way. They won't be able to talk these seperatists into giving up their guns until Kiev moves, and Kiev hasn't moved an inch during any of this time infact they've gone out of their way to ratchet up tensions. To keep the population behind them, to maintain their own legitimacy by calling upon national unity in the face of a threat from an external enemy, they've made more and more bellicose noises and made no attempt to start any kind of dialogue with Russia about the future.
This has opened up a big can of worms and I think the US and EU might well come to the conclusion that the West of Ukraine maybe isn't worth all this after all. I wouldn't hold my breath though.
I think partition would be a part of that scenario, not an alternative to it. If there's going to be a partition it will be decided not by the ballot box but by armed forces.
It won't be like George and South Ossettia. Ukraine is too big a deal for NATO to just sit on the sidelines and observe. Every ex-communist state in Europe would start to worry that their alliances with the USA aren't going to be honoured when it comes to the crunch and the United States would start to lose trust very quickly.
And btw you skipped out on answering a whole bunch of questions earlier on, would you care to revisit them now you've got the time to post on this thread again?
newbie
undisambiguated
and not give an inch to the people of east Ukraine and their (apparent) doubts about whether or not they want to be governed from Kiev? Tanks are rolling towards them.
