Fuchs66
Ring a ding
Russian irony!
Ukraine
- Thread starter Zabo
- Start date
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
Do you seriously think this is going to happen?
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Do you seriously think it's not a possibility?
The Huffington Post UK 15/03/2014
Russian Forces Seize Ukrainian Village Beyond Border, Hotels In Crimea Stormed By Masked Gunmen
Apparently there's "a natural gas distribution station" there which supplies Crimea?
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
A deliberate launching of pre-emptive war by one side (probably the Kremlin) is not likely. But it's highly likely that one side (probably the Kremlin) will discover that it has unleashed a process, and unleashed forces, that it cannot control, and may find itself (and everyone else) dragged into a vicious downward spiral that will lead only to. . .yep, you guessed it, war.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
My thoughts exactly! I really don't feel that the Russians want conflict but I also don't think they've thought it through properly and may have a few uncomfortable consequences to deal with in the near future.
Because the Russian government is far right. Of the 14 defining characteristics of fascism, I'd say Putin's Russia meets 9 or 10 of them.
1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
4. Supremacy of the Military
6. Controlled Mass Media
7. Obsession with National Security
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined to the government's policies or actions.
9. Corporate Power is Protected
10. Labor Power is Suppressed
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
14. Fraudulent Elections
seventh bullet
sovietwave
Is it fuck.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
How can you seriously copy and paste that and not believe that all of those also apply to Britain and America?
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
Bit of a difference between "seriously thinking something is going to happen", and thinking "it's a possibility", wouldn't you say?
co-op
But....but cLoWnFiSh....
It's not quite the full on invasion of the Eastern Ukraine that I was thinking of. So far, to me, this all looks quite a containable episode very much along South Ossetia lines and I don't see the Russian bear slavering for Ukrainian blood. In fact Putin seems pretty restrained so far. But then I also see this as a clash between two great imperial blocs, and the most provocative and interventionist behaviour has been from the West in the last 12 months - so I'm not backing one side or the other, nor do I see any great advantage to progressive forces anywhere in the whole horrible process.
It seems to me from posts on here that there's an anti-Russia head of steam getting up and many are jumping on a weird Russia-paranoia bandwagon - to the extent of celebrating Ukrainian "Govts of National Unity" with Nazi scum like Svoboda and the rest fully ensconced in it.
I question whether the Russians are about to sweep west - it just looks extremely unlikely to me - but like I say, I'm not twitching to see the Bear get a bloody nose and I don't really understand the logic of those who seem to be lining up behind it. It's so similar to Syria - jump on the western bandwagon, demand bombing etc - and then find yourself in bed with islamist nutters - utterly predictably and ridiculously.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
I agree, but in terms of the west not having thought things through and now getting high on own farts so to speak (thus adding to the hysterical stink of it all).
Johnny Canuck3
Well-Known Member
They're not idiots nor bumpkins. They are sophisticated politicians who have been running the largest country physically in the world, with a population of hundreds of millions, for a long time.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
Oh I agree that the "west" probably didn't reckon on Russia spitting on international law and annexing Crimea. Damn those "playing by the book" Westerners.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
I know how the Russians are having worked in the country for a large part of the last 6 years. Yes they do have a disregard for international treaties, agreements and laws and yes they do tend to get careless about it (mainly due to their arrogance), yes they do get caught out occasionally and no they don't give a flying fuck when they do get caught because they know that there is little anyone can do about it.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
If the situation were the reverse the US would chuck the book out too, and has done many times. When it's their "back yard" there is no book (Grenada, Panama, thats just the overt stuff).
maybe they have thought it through though, if crisis is the objective. If things played out, Ukraine would join NATO. If things didn't and Russia got tanky, then Russia 'gets it's own Iraq' in terms of bogged down and villified, and allies and military budgets get a nice boost.
It's a win win if you're a US cold warrior.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
Just because I don't like it when Russia disregards International law doesn't mean I cheerlead for the US if they do similar. But tbh I can't remember the last time the US actually annexed a part of a neighbouring country, Texas was maybe the last occasion.
Johnny Canuck3
Well-Known Member
But if it's wrong when the US does it, surely it's wrong when other countries do it, too.
Johnny Canuck3
Well-Known Member
American Samoa; Guam, Puerto Rico.
Johnny Canuck3
Well-Known Member
The US also tried with the San Juan Pig War, but we sent them packing.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
I agree, but real-politically I think it was obvious this would happen at some point. If Russia annexing Crimea is considered a bad thing then encouraging a burst out of political processes was probably a mistake. Things could have been kept nice and procedural apparently. I don't think we'd have seen all this if the EU had been amenable to Ukraine forming economic agreements in both directions, I don't think Ukraine joining NATO had to have been part of the ultimatum.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
Only Puerto Rico is close to being a neighbouring state and it as with Guam came to have their relationship with the USA as a result of the Spanish-American war, American Samoa was the result of a tiff between the US and Germany. So not exactly great but still date back to the end of the 19th century/start of 20th century and don't involve the military occupation of a neighbouring states territory and the annexation of that territory.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
I mean overt military intervention, annexation isn't something the US would have done in South or Central America of course, whereas Russia and Crimea have the kind of historical relationship that can (and now probably will) go in that direction. I don't think Russia will move to seize the rest of Ukraine though, even with a military invasion such as painted by some they would probably then want to leave again, having established a Russia friendly regime or something. Even that though would probably not be their preference imo, no one likes cleaning up spilt buckets of shit (if they felt a need to invade Ukraine... surely that would count as a spilt bucket of shit from the Russian point of veiw).
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Fuchs66
Ring a ding
We as in "The British Empire" we?The US also tried with the San Juan Pig War, but we sent them packing.
Johnny Canuck3
Well-Known Member
I'm not joking about the Pig War. There were various situations in Canada where US traders would come north, then start acting as if they controlled the territory. The likely intent was to extend US influence north of the 49th. They built forts on the southern prairies; and in the Fraser Canyon of BC, they started conflicts with, and killed, local indigenous people. They were successfully pushed back each time.
Johnny Canuck3
Well-Known Member
We as in "The British Empire" we?
Yes, Canada was part of the British Empire at that time.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
Oh I realise that, but was it a part of a centralised policy of expansion or was it just individual arseholes trying to make a buck here or there (more there than here)? And also as you mention they failed each time which sort of hints at the possibility that it was just individual groups of "entrepreneurs" that were pushing north.
