Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

[Nikkormat]

Interesting long thread on possibility of 9 May declaration of war/conscription, with a good digression on the liberal-Moscow-centric focus of western media when reporting on anti-Putin sentiment. Kamil Galeev is no fan of Navalny. He talks of the lack of agency and the lack of sense of any possibility of agency of ordinary Russians.
Like Alperovitch, he thinks mass mobilisation unlikely, because unlike the USSR, Russia lacks the command structure and training infrastructure to support a sudden upsurge in army numbers. And like Alperovitch, he thinks it would increase the likelihood of revolt from its present state of near zero. Conscription would be a dumb move, which doesn't rule it out entirely.

That's an excellent read, thanks for posting it. My partner was involved in Russian opposition, and it backs up some of the things she has said regarding agency, media focus on nationalist opposition and regionalism as an alternative.

 

[Supine]

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Another fire attack allgedly

 

[kabbes]

It’s impossible to evaluate the significance of these fires without having a baseline of how many fires there normally are in Russian warehouses. For all I know, one a week is typical.

 

[maomao]

It’s impossible to evaluate the significance of these fires without having a baseline of how many fires there normally are in Russian warehouses. For all I know, one a week is typical.

Are there not UK figures we could extrapolate from?

 

[kabbes]

Are there not UK figures we could extrapolate from?

Not really. Warehouse fire rates are very dependent on safety procedures and risk mitigation. No reason to assume that’s the same in Russia as it is in the UK

 

[platinumsage]

"Fire statistics in Russia reflect the current state of fire safety processes in the country.
According to the EMERCOM of Russia, about 150,000 fires are registered annually, the direct material damage from which is estimated by the state at about 20,000,000,000 rubles. About 10,000 people die every year in fires in Russia.
Thus, about 400 fires occur in our country every day, which claim the lives of 25-30 people!
About 70% of fires occur in the residential sector, 14% in transport, 4% in public buildings, 2% in production facilities, 1% in warehouses, 1% in construction and agricultural facilities, 8% in other objects."

Статистика пожаров | Огнетушители ОП

Статистика пожаров в России и мире

ognetushiteli-op.ru

 

[DaveCinzano]

Thus, about 400 fires occur in our country every day, which claim the lives of 25-30 people!

Is that your exclamation mark or is the Russian HSE just very upbeat?

 

[kabbes]

"Fire statistics in Russia reflect the current state of fire safety processes in the country.
According to the EMERCOM of Russia, about 150,000 fires are registered annually, the direct material damage from which is estimated by the state at about 20,000,000,000 rubles. About 10,000 people die every year in fires in Russia.
Thus, about 400 fires occur in our country every day, which claim the lives of 25-30 people!
About 70% of fires occur in the residential sector, 14% in transport, 4% in public buildings, 2% in production facilities, 1% in warehouses, 1% in construction and agricultural facilities, 8% in other objects."

Статистика пожаров | Огнетушители ОП

Статистика пожаров в России и мире

ognetushiteli-op.ru

So that looks like a baseline of about four warehouse fires per day. It’s hard to therefore conclude much about a handful of fires over the last two to four weeks.

 

[Supine]

So that looks like a baseline of about four warehouse fires per day. It’s hard to therefore conclude much about a handful of fires over the last two to four weeks.

Agree about the numbers. The potentially interesting thing for me is number at military places and closeness to the Ukraine boarder. Time will tell i guess.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Agree about the numbers. The potentially interesting thing for me is number at military places and closeness to the Ukraine boarder. Time will tell i guess.

Yep, they're the more interesting things.

Russian military plants/installations 'accidentally' catching fire

A thread for rumours, theories, analysis etc

www.urban75.net

 

[kabbes]

Agree about the numbers. The potentially interesting thing for me is number at military places and closeness to the Ukraine boarder. Time will tell i guess.

Again, I can’t know that without knowing the distribution of warehouses in Russia. Maybe they have more warehouses nearer their European border. Remember that we would expect there to have been about 100 warehouse fires across Russia in the last four weeks. How many of those would be expected to be kind of near the Ukrainian border? No idea.

 

[maomao]

Is that reported fires? Because only a small proportion of fires turn into big building destroying events.

 

[alex_]

"Fire statistics in Russia reflect the current state of fire safety processes in the country.
According to the EMERCOM of Russia, about 150,000 fires are registered annually, the direct material damage from which is estimated by the state at about 20,000,000,000 rubles. About 10,000 people die every year in fires in Russia.
Thus, about 400 fires occur in our country every day, which claim the lives of 25-30 people!
About 70% of fires occur in the residential sector, 14% in transport, 4% in public buildings, 2% in production facilities, 1% in warehouses, 1% in construction and agricultural facilities, 8% in other objects."

Статистика пожаров | Огнетушители ОП

Статистика пожаров в России и мире

ognetushiteli-op.ru

“There were 311 fire-related fatalities in Great Britain during 2020/21” ( Fire-related fatalities in Britain 2021 | Statista)

Russia population is 2x uk’s so - thats 15x more fire related deaths in Russia than U.K. - so I think you can assume a lot more fires

 

[maomao]

Though 10,000 fire deaths a year is fucking mental. The UK is just under half the population and about 300 fire deaths a year. So Russians are 16 point something times more likely to die in a fire.

 

[kabbes]

Is that reported fires? Because only a small proportion of fires turn into big building destroying events.

True, but we don’t know how many of the publicised fires were building destroying events either. Plus a lot of them on the map above would fall into the “public buildings” or “other” categories, which would add another 50 fires a day, or 1400 in the last four weeks. So in some ways, our baseline for comparison should really be more like 1500 fires.

In short, beware the baseline fallacy, particularly when you are given a statistic you would like to believe.

 

[DaveCinzano]

ALEX_:

“There were 311 fire-related fatalities in Great Britain during 2020/21” ( Fire-related fatalities in Britain 2021 | Statista)

Russia population is 2x uk’s so - thats 15x more fire related deaths in Russia than U.K. - so I think you can assume a lot more fires

ALEX_PLAINING:

Though 10,000 fire deaths a year is fucking mental. The UK is just under half the population and about 300 fire deaths a year. So Russians are 16 point something times more likely to die in a fire.

 

[Supine]

“There were 311 fire-related fatalities in Great Britain during 2020/21” ( Fire-related fatalities in Britain 2021 | Statista)

Russia population is 2x uk’s so - thats 15x more fire related deaths in Russia than U.K. - so I think you can assume a lot more fires

Not a fair comparison if russia doesn’t have fire regulation standards on par with UK/EU.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Though 10,000 fire deaths a year is fucking mental. The UK is just under half the population and about 300 fire deaths a year. So Russians are 16 point something times more likely to die in a fire.

Quite gob smacking. I'm guessing corruption, appalling health and safety and maintenance, complete disregard for human life, very little accountability.
Seems to be same approach accross entire country.
See also - the Russian military

 

[Nikkormat]

Quite gob smacking. I'm guessing corruption, appalling health and safety and maintenance, complete disregard for human life, very little accountability.
Seems to be same approach accross entire country.
See also - the Russian military

On this subject, I highly recommend the film The Fool, which although fiction, gives a good insight into the impact of corruption on health & safety.

 

[Dogsauce]

Quite gob smacking. I'm guessing corruption, appalling health and safety and maintenance, complete disregard for human life, very little accountability.
Seems to be same approach accross entire country.
See also - the Russian military

10,000 sounds appalling, that sort of number makes me think it’s been mistranslated and means casualties (killed or injured) instead, but suspect not.

I think a lot of what we’ve seen being passed around on social media might be ‘normal’ fires, with the exception of military or significant infrastructure like fuel depots close to the Ukrainian border.

 

[tim]

Though 10,000 fire deaths a year is fucking mental. The UK is just under half the population and about 300 fire deaths a year. So Russians are 16 point something times more likely to die in a fire.

Health and Safety gone good!

 

[two sheds]

gorn sayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyne

 

[alex_]

ALEX_:


ALEX_PLAINING:

Amazing timing !

 

[DaveCinzano]

Amazing timing !

A case of maomao haste, less speed

 

[maomao]

I didn't see the other post because I have everyone except myself and Phil Dwyer on ignore.

 

[alex_]

Not a fair comparison if russia doesn’t have fire regulation standards on par with UK/EU.

It’s a complete fair comparison - it shows the value of the regulations.

 

[alex_]

I didn't see the other post because I have everyone except myself and Phil Dwyer on ignore.

I suspect neither post was there when we posted.

 

[DaveCinzano]

I didn't see the other post because I have everyone except myself and Phil Dwyer on ignore.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

So that looks like a baseline of about four warehouse fires per day. It’s hard to therefore conclude much about a handful of fires over the last two to four weeks.

I disagree. The size of the fires which need to be reported from a governance and health and safety perspective will be any size of fire including the odd wheelie bins kids have torched. Not just burning down an entire factory sized fires. Think about it, if these huge fires that we’ve witnessed over the last few weeks was the norm, it would be a huge economic and political issue in a relatively short lengh of time. These fires are not the odd skip that’s caught fire. They are an anomaly.