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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

agricola said:
When they could conceivably take the rest of the country anyway
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Conceivably, but a long way from certainly. The Russians seem to be down to sending in 20 year-old commercial vans with Z painted on the side.

There may be historical examples which say differently, but I would find it surprising for anyone to surrender their country to the enemy just because eventual defeat is conceivable.
 
elbows said:
By the way the Boiko mentioned there is presumably the one who started using his fists some years ago when another politician went on about his dodgy links to Moscow and said he was going to ask the security services why Boiko wasnt in prison yet.

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Well that does make the offered terms look more like trolling than any kind of actual proposal.
 
Raheem said:
Conceivably, but a long way from certainly. The Russians seem to be down to sending in 20 year-old commercial vans with Z painted on the side.

There may be historical examples which say differently, but I would find it surprising for anyone to surrender their country to the enemy just because eventual defeat is conceivable.
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Again though, are they really doing that? Yes, we’ve all seen that tweet umpteen times but it could easily be misinformation (in fact I’d say it’s much more likely to be). I’d hope we and Ukraine have a better idea of what is actually going on but I do have my doubts.
 
bimble said:
They also (according to this) say that Zel wld be permitted to stay on as president “pro forma”.
View attachment 313309

It’s tempting to read into the story an idea that Russia is backing down but that might be stupid, it might mean anything or nothing.
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I can't see that working. If (unlikely hypothetical) Z were to accept it (and trust the Russians to keep their word :confused: ) then he'd stand accused of leading his fellow citizens to die in their thousands needlessly, have their cities trashed and a couple of million flee as refugees - all for concessions he could have granted at the outset.
Except these concessions would never have been enough at the outset, and the whole idea is outrageous.

No, I reckon this is just manufactured for domestic consumption to show how 'unreasonable' the Ukrainians are being.
 
bimble said:
Well that does make the offered terms look more like trolling than any kind of actual proposal.
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It is, but that’s the point of engaging with it publicly. Boyko as PM isn’t going to be able to do anything either unless Russian forces control Ukraine; if that’s part of the deal then it needs to be exposed as clearly ludicrous.
 
agricola said:
Again though, are they really doing that? Yes, we’ve all seen that tweet umpteen times but it could easily be misinformation (in fact I’d say it’s much more likely to be). I’d hope we and Ukraine have a better idea of what is actually going on but I do have my doubts.
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The vans are tangential, really. But, however you look at it, Russian victory is not immediately at hand. Ergo, expecting Ukraine to surrender right now is not realistic or serious.
 
The inside scoop from that nuclear plant is that the Russians haven't let any workers in or out for any reason. So no shift changes. In over a week. The Russians have a military commander running the place, not anyone who actually knows what the fuck they're doing. Phone signals are blocked so the workers in the plant cannot communicate with families.

In the nearby town the men are all staying indoors 24/7 because any male under 60 who ventures out is likely to be press ganged by the Russian occupiers.
 
agricola said:
Again though, are they really doing that? Yes, we’ve all seen that tweet umpteen times but it could easily be misinformation (in fact I’d say it’s much more likely to be). I’d hope we and Ukraine have a better idea of what is actually going on but I do have my doubts.
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I saw someone state that they were for civil use, Russia occupies a chunk of the country and does need to keep things running in the occupied bit.

The shabby looking fuel tankers will probably be used for supplying the military though, since they’re short of those following targeted action by Ukrainian forces. Reportedly they are moving fuel around in standard trucks (presumably in IBCs or something) to try and avoid them being targeted.
 
bluescreen said:
.... I reckon this is just manufactured for domestic consumption to show how 'unreasonable' the Ukrainians are being.
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I think it's manufactured for foreign consumption to see if they can divide Russia's opponents. There may be some governments in the west that are willing to contemplate a Munich-style 'peace' agreement even if it means dismembering Ukraine.
 
SpookyFrank said:
The inside scoop from that nuclear plant is that the Russians haven't let any workers in or out for any reason. So no shift changes. In over a week. The Russians have a military commander running the place, not anyone who actually knows what the fuck they're doing. Phone signals are blocked so the workers in the plant cannot communicate with families.

In the nearby town the men are all staying indoors 24/7 because any male under 60 who ventures out is likely to be press ganged by the Russian occupiers.
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Fucking insanity. Tired stressed people, that's who I want running a nuclear power plant.

What happened with the attack on the Kyiv physics institute building, reported late last night IIRC.

Ed2a some info here. Kharkiv not Kyiv. And fortunately no fissile material or enriched uranium on site. Unfortunately the facility has been destroyed though.
 
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Leighsw2 said:
I think it's manufactured for foreign consumption to see if they can divide Russia's opponents. There may be some governments in the west that are willing to contemplate a Munich-style 'peace' agreement even if it means dismembering Ukraine.
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But they wouldn't be parties to any agreement, would they? It's between Russia and Ukraine. Do you mean pressure to bear on Ukraine, such as 'you can't have any more arms, in view of this offer?' I don't reckon that will fly.

I guess this should be on the speculation thread.
 
Idris2002 said:
One possible angle for any future peace deal (after Putin goes to the great Lubyanka in the sky): an international peacekeeping force for the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.
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The OSCE were there monitoring the 'ceasefire' after 2014 rather than a UN peacekeeping force.
 
www.popularmechanics.com

Every Single Weapon Europe Is Sending to Ukraine (So Far)

Tanks and aircraft-killing weapons top the list.
www.popularmechanics.com www.popularmechanics.com

In an 11th hour attempt to bolster Ukraine's defenses against Russian invasion, NATO members and other Western countries are flowing a staggering amount of weapons into the country. So far, the weapons have included small arms and missiles designed to destroy Russian tanks and fighter jets; they've proven vital in stiffening Ukrainian defenses, allowing defenders to capitalize on the Russian Army’s poor showing in the war.

Here’s a list of weapons that the West has provided to Ukraine as of March 1. Note that a number of other countries, most notably France, have declared their intent to ship aid, but have not yet specified the types of equipment.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
The OSCE were there monitoring the 'ceasefire' after 2014 rather than a UN peacekeeping force.
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I should have been more specific. No Ukrainian government that wasn't a puppet could agree to total demilitarisation of the country.

At the same time, I wouldn't like to be an ethnic Russian in Ukraine when all this is over. Hence the proposal - a de facto demilitarisation of DPR and LPR, and the presence of UN troops.

This is all just pissing into the wind, of course.
 
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Raheem said:
The vans are tangential, really. But, however you look at it, Russian victory is not immediately at hand. Ergo, expecting Ukraine to surrender right now is not realistic or serious.
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As agricola says Ukraine have already lost control of significant territory south and east. THat is a degree of Russian victory. Giving that up officially via peace talks isnt that insane- its exactly the kind of demand from Russia you can expect to have in the settlement, and if there is to be a settlement its the kind of thing Ukraine are going to have to agree too. People were speculating about a partition from before the invasion happened.
The only other option is to push out occupying Russian forces militarily.
 
Is Zelensky still pushing for a no-fly zone? The stuff I've read about him ranting on the subject to the west suggests to me that the mental strain is getting to him.
 
Idris2002 said:
Is Zelensky still pushing for a no-fly zone? The stuff I've read about him ranting on the subject to the west suggests to me that the mental strain is getting to him.
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I posted about stuff like that and also how they used the nuclear fears to attempt to resonate further with european public sentiments, but I dont think there was anything unexpected or unhinged about the rhetoric used, it was just a sign of how loud rhetoric and propaganda gets in war, a sign of understandable desperation and the sort of thing desperate people call for even if they know they arent going to get it.

More recently I think he had moved on to asking for planes again, 'if you arent going to give us a no-fly zone then give us planes' type stuff, and then even more recently talking about the importance of nations boycotting Russian energy. But the other stuff may still feature again in future.
 
Idris2002 said:
Is Zelensky still pushing for a no-fly zone? The stuff I've read about him ranting on the subject to the west suggests to me that the mental strain is getting to him.
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He's not going to get it, but repeating his calls for it seems like exactly the thing he should be saying when he's, presumably, trying to maximise western support in all its forms. As a piece of PR, it was probably a couple of notches too high but, to be honest, I'd be cutting him a bit of slack in the circumstances.
 
ska invita said:
As agricola says Ukraine have already lost control of significant territory south and east. THat is a degree of Russian victory. Giving that up officially via peace talks isnt that insane- its exactly the kind of demand from Russia you can expect to have in the settlement, and if there is to be a settlement its the kind of thing Ukraine are going to have to agree too. People were speculating about a partition from before the invasion happened.
The only other option is to push out occupying Russian forces militarily.
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Indeed war has a habit of making compromises seem especially absurd, but at the same time ultimately more likely. Whether that ultimately ends up resembling the demands we've heard so far is something I feel a long way away from having any certainty about. Likewise when it comes to Ukrainian political parties that have long taken a pro-Russian stance, predictions that involve them having a productive role will seem very silly right now, but I dont want to presume to know what future they have. They were not completely decimated by Russias previous acts such as the last war and taking Crimea, but the current war has obviously gone well beyond what happened last time.
 
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