Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[The39thStep]

Definitely looks like change is coming.
Also from today’s Guardian.
“

• Meanwhile, US president-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said the new administration would seek “bold diplomacy” to end the war. “There will have to be concessions made by the Russian Federation, but also by the Ukrainians,” he said.”

Ukraine war briefing: US House speaker dumps key Ukraine backer Mike Turner

Mike Johnson removes his fellow Republican as chair of powerful intelligence committee; Poland says Europe must take care of itself. What we know on day 1,058

www.theguardian.com

This is from his confirmation hearing . The line that Russia cannot take all of Ukraine (which is true) , could be respun as Russia failed to take Ukraine ( also true) if there is a negotiated end to the war.

 

[dilute micro]

A postponement to the war, not an end.

 

[CNT36]

A postponement to the war, not an end.

Yeah, though watching the video Rubio thinks that whatever the negotiated end of the war looks like it needs to make sure that it doesn't leave the door open for Russia to pop back in "5 years" and finish the job. I'm not sure how that'll go down with the boss who I doubt cares what happens in 5 years when he is out on his arse anyway but will want to look good in 100 days.

As an aside. Rubio seems different in the clips I've seen of the selection hearing to how I've always imagined him. An incompetent MAGA type ideologue. He doesn't really seem like either here. I get the context that he's probably had people working to dial both the incompetence and ideology down but slightly worried he is actually a competent MAGA type ideologue.

 

[The39thStep]

A postponement to the war, not an end.

I've heard this before, can you explain your workings out on this?

 

[dilute micro]

Yeah, though watching the video Rubio thinks that whatever the negotiated end of the war looks like it needs to make sure that it doesn't leave the door open for Russia to pop back in "5 years" and finish the job. I'm not sure how that'll go down with the boss who I doubt cares what happens in 5 years when he is out on his arse anyway but will want to look good in 100 days.

As an aside. Rubio seems different in the clips I've seen of the selection hearing to how I've always imagined him. An incompetent MAGA type ideologue. He doesn't really seem like either here. I get the context that he's probably had people working to dial both the incompetence and ideology down but slightly worried he is actually a competent MAGA type ideologue.

Yes, the right words and signatures will make sure this never happens again. Never mind this whole thing is a tale of incompetence going back to the original agreement and disarmaments.

 

[Ax^]

the right words from this administration, that is very hopefully..

we just about working thru the final arrangement of a ceasefire for the war caused by their last roadmap to peace..

be lucky if russian are not back sorry after the mid terms to finish the deal

 

[WouldBe]

the right words from this administration,

Just not necessarily in the right order.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I've heard this before, can you explain your workings out on this?

Putin famous at saying enough is enough. Like he did after Crimea and Donbas.

 

[CNT36]

the right words from this administration, that is very hopefully..

we just about working thru the final arrangement of a peace deal from the war caused by their last roadmap to peace..

be lucky if russian are not back sorry after the mid terms to finish the deal

You could also argue that the administration continuing a policy of militarily arming an ally didn't help matters much either...A stupid comparison obviously but aren't they all.

Yes, the right words and signatures will make sure this never happens again. Never mind this whole thing is a tale of incompetence going back to the original agreement and disarmaments.

A Ukrainian victory doesn't mean this will never happen again it may just kick the can further down the road. At some point there will need to be an end to the conflict. Words probably won't be enough in any event.

 

[dilute micro]

You could also argue that the administration continuing a policy of militarily arming an ally didn't help matters much either...A stupid comparison obviously but aren't they all.



A Ukrainian victory doesn't mean this will never happen again it may just kick the can further down the road. At some point there will need to be an end to the conflict. Words probably won't be enough in any event.

That works either way. What's the going internet definition for a Ukrainian victory?

 

[CNT36]

That works either way. What's the going internet definition for a Ukrainian victory?

Fuck knows.

ETA I was thinking of the one mentioned by Rubio in the video being discussed.

 

[dilute micro]

Fuck knows.

ETA I was thinking of the one mentioned by Rubio in the video being discussed.

Losing permanently territory they've lost critically wounds Ukraine. Even if "peacekeepers" move in after a cease fire that would be more welcome to Putin and whoever comes after him than full NATO membership. But it seems even NATO isn't that much of a worry.

 

[Flavour]

explosions close to where Starmer is in Kiev apparently -- that'd be a big fucking escalation if they killed the son of the toolmaker

 

[maomao]

explosions close to where Starmer is in Kiev apparently -- that'd be a big fucking escalation if they killed the son of the toolmaker

Be a big fucking party too.

 

[klang]

since johnson survived covid i get less excited about these things.

 

[Chz]

What an absolute spouting of bollocks from Starmer. I support Ukraine and all that, but this "100 year partnership" thing is the big... well it's Starmer, it probably isn't the biggest load of shit he's ever spewed but it ranks up there.

 

[Pickman's model]

What an absolute spouting of bollocks from Starmer. I support Ukraine and all that, but this "100 year partnership" thing is the big... well it's Starmer, it probably isn't the biggest load of shit he's ever spewed but it ranks up there.

neither the united kingdom nor ukraine are likely to survive the next hundred years in anything resembling their form today.

 

[TopCat]

Starmer’s rhetoric was a bit bizarre.

“Starmer said the unprecedented agreement reflected the “huge affection between our two nations”.

Huge affection? Really? How so?

UK to back Ukraine ‘beyond this terrible war’ with 100-year pact, says Starmer

PM visits Kyiv to agree partnership and says Putin shows no signs of wanting to stop ‘unrelenting aggression’

www.theguardian.com

 

[yield]

Sending troops to train has often been the prelude to sending troops to fight.

UK considers sending troops to Ukraine to help train its forces

Defence Secretary John Healey visits Kyiv to discuss plans to provide more support to Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

More talk of British troops in Ukraine

What British boots on the ground would look like in Ukraine
Telegraph. 15 January 2025 https://archive.ph/yj3qF

Former defence secretaries call for UK to join a post-war peacekeeping force, but troops could run a training mission or even defend Kyiv

 

[ska invita]

Post-war though. Enforcing the new border

 

[The39thStep]

Post-war though. Enforcing the new border

Scenario 2 in that article isn't post-war


neither is Scenario 3

 

[TopCat]

Scenario 2 in that article isn't post-war

View attachment 459973
neither is Scenario 3

View attachment 459974

Looks like madness to me.

 

[TopCat]

Drones, desertions, death, destruction. Ukrainians' hopes and concerns as Trump presidency nears

 

[Ax^]

the mental gymnastics that will happen on here when Putin reneges on the next ceasefire is going to be something to watch ....

 

[existentialist]

the mental gymnastics that will happen on here when Putin reneges on the next ceasefire is going to be something to watch ....

Nah, it won't be. Revisionism doesn't work like that.

 

[TopCat]

More reportage from the Guardian on the efforts by the Ukrainian state to combat illegal exit of the country to avoid conscription.
“

Ukraine police conduct raids in draft evasion probe​

Ukrainian police said Friday its officers were conducting 200 searches nationwide as part of an ongoing probe into the illegal exit of military-aged men from the country.

Kyiv has been pushing a sweeping and divisive mobilisation campaign to boost its military, which is struggling to hold back Russia’s significantly larger army that is advancing across at several sectors across the front, AFP reported.

“The national police force is conducting more than 200 searches regarding cases of illegal border crossings” of Ukrainian men who are eligible for army service, the national police said in a statement.

The raids announced on Friday are just the latest step in a country-wide probe launched by law enforcement last week when Kyiv said police were searching around 600 homes, offices and other sites.

Last week, police said the operation was primarily targeting the organisers of schemes that help draft evaders to illegally cross the Ukrainian border.

Police said Friday that its searches were being conducted in 19 different regions and posted pictures of officers with weapons entering and cameras at what appeared to be private residences and offices.”

Russia-Ukraine war: Ukraine police conduct nationwide raids over draft evasion – as it happened

Ukrainian police said officers were conducting 200 searches nationwide amid probe into illegal exit of military-aged men from the country

www.theguardian.com

 

[CH1]

More reportage from the Guardian on the efforts by the Ukrainian state to combat illegal exit of the country to avoid conscription.
“

Ukraine police conduct raids in draft evasion probe​

Ukrainian police said Friday its officers were conducting 200 searches nationwide as part of an ongoing probe into the illegal exit of military-aged men from the country.

Kyiv has been pushing a sweeping and divisive mobilisation campaign to boost its military, which is struggling to hold back Russia’s significantly larger army that is advancing across at several sectors across the front, AFP reported.

“The national police force is conducting more than 200 searches regarding cases of illegal border crossings” of Ukrainian men who are eligible for army service, the national police said in a statement.

The raids announced on Friday are just the latest step in a country-wide probe launched by law enforcement last week when Kyiv said police were searching around 600 homes, offices and other sites.

Last week, police said the operation was primarily targeting the organisers of schemes that help draft evaders to illegally cross the Ukrainian border.

Police said Friday that its searches were being conducted in 19 different regions and posted pictures of officers with weapons entering and cameras at what appeared to be private residences and offices.”

Russia-Ukraine war: Ukraine police conduct nationwide raids over draft evasion – as it happened

Ukrainian police said officers were conducting 200 searches nationwide amid probe into illegal exit of military-aged men from the country

www.theguardian.com

Has there been a split in Guardian Media Group?
I mean has the Observer been sold off because it's too pro-Ukraine,, and now the residual Tankies can run their sort of stories in the purified Guardian?
I had been thinking of cancelling my Guardian DD - and your serial choice of stories makes this more likely.
Like the Guardian is tenting towards nu-RT - drip drip. II don't want to suppress the truth - but neither do I want Putinism with my cornflakes!
Ukraine is in a war for fuck's sake. Buildings constantly destroyed,, power grid off a lot of the time, civilians killed - and the Guardian expects people to be invited to fight - if they want to!

 

[DownwardDog]

Ukraine is in a war for fuck's sake. Buildings constantly destroyed,, power grid off a lot of the time, civilians killed - and the Guardian expects people to be invited to fight - if they want to!

The problem isn't with the concept of Ukrainian conscription, it's the arbitrary, highly corrupt and incompetent manner in which the conscription is executed.

 

[Elpenor]

More reportage from the Guardian on the efforts by the Ukrainian state to combat illegal exit of the country to avoid conscription.
“

Ukraine police conduct raids in draft evasion probe​

Ukrainian police said Friday its officers were conducting 200 searches nationwide as part of an ongoing probe into the illegal exit of military-aged men from the country.

Kyiv has been pushing a sweeping and divisive mobilisation campaign to boost its military, which is struggling to hold back Russia’s significantly larger army that is advancing across at several sectors across the front, AFP reported.

“The national police force is conducting more than 200 searches regarding cases of illegal border crossings” of Ukrainian men who are eligible for army service, the national police said in a statement.

The raids announced on Friday are just the latest step in a country-wide probe launched by law enforcement last week when Kyiv said police were searching around 600 homes, offices and other sites.

Last week, police said the operation was primarily targeting the organisers of schemes that help draft evaders to illegally cross the Ukrainian border.

Police said Friday that its searches were being conducted in 19 different regions and posted pictures of officers with weapons entering and cameras at what appeared to be private residences and offices.”

Russia-Ukraine war: Ukraine police conduct nationwide raids over draft evasion – as it happened

Ukrainian police said officers were conducting 200 searches nationwide amid probe into illegal exit of military-aged men from the country

www.theguardian.com

Government raids on ordinary people just going about their business are the sign of an oppressive state - believe Trump has immigration raids planned for next week in Chicago. Two sides of the same coin.

 

[redsquirrel]

Has there been a split in Guardian Media Group?
I mean has the Observer been sold off because it's too pro-Ukraine,, and now the residual Tankies can run their sort of stories in the purified Guardian?
I had been thinking of cancelling my Guardian DD - and your serial choice of stories makes this more likely.
Like the Guardian is tenting towards nu-RT - drip drip. II don't want to suppress the truth - but neither do I want Putinism with my cornflakes!
Ukraine is in a war for fuck's sake. Buildings constantly destroyed,, power grid off a lot of the time, civilians killed - and the Guardian expects people to be invited to fight - if they want to!

This is tin-foil hat stuff. The Observer has been sold off for financial reasons and the idea that the Guardian offices are full of Tankies is absurd and without any sort of basis. Who are these Tankies? Viner?

The last "Tankie" that I can think of with a regular column at the Guardian was David Aaronovitch and he left in 2005.