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Tory Death Spiral

redsquirrel said:
Yep definite oblivion for a party that 42% of the vote four months ago, still has significant capital backing and that's basically polling neck-and-neck with Labour.
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Well as we all know at any one time one or other of the two main parties must be facing a total collapse they can never recover from. It was Labour about six months ago but they're looking up a bit so...
 
Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
Well as we all know at any one time one or other of the two main parties must be facing a total collapse they can never recover from. It was Labour about six months ago but they're looking up a bit so...
Click to expand...
Yep. You'd think the people making these breathless pronouncements might reflect on the (near) history but that's obviously asking a bit too much.
 
An awful lot of people vote(probably more than any of us would like to admit) vote on the principle of choosing the lesser evil, they vote Labour because they're afraid of Tory policies or they vote Tory because they're afraid of the Labour ones. I've offered my opinion many times before that is why the Liberal Democrats are now dead, A huge number of their voters were anti-Tory but realised Labour were no-hopers in their constituency.
Most of the people I know who say they will vote Tory come the next election whenever it might be say it is because they don't like Corbyn not because they like Theresa the Doomed.
At the moment Corbyn is the key figure in UK politics, he's very divisive, people split into 2 camps, they've either like him or hate him but very few are indifferent. May on the other hand gets a modest amount of hate but even the people who voted Tory last time are mostly meh, who again?
 
Corbyn is a divisive figure, but the numbers are changing. Very slowly, but they're there. Wouldn't be surprised to see him take a lead in the next couple of months, and Labour put on a more significant one.

DLdCQ0OW4AA1qjH.png:large
 
killer b said:
Latest yougov (fieldwork weds & today) has labour 42 / tories 40 tbf. It's all been very enjoyable but the dial have barely twitched.
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Also worth thinking about the, imo quite plausible, hypothesis that a lot of the rapid movement in polling during the general election was due to a more rigorous enforcement of impartiality rules. Without that the BBC et al has slipped back into the balance of having on panels consisting of say Helen Lewis, David Davis and Isabel Hardman all commentating on how awful the Labour leadership is. Any election and those rules on impartiality kick back in but the Labour vote is starting from a much higher baseline.
 
Labour from '97 on won 3 elections on the trot with large majorities. The next 3 elections have seen the Tories go from minority government to small majority & back to minority government. It's quite possible that Labour could win next election with at least a reasonable majority. Which makes Labour rather more successful than the Tories in the last 2 decades.

At last GE with annihilation of Labour predicted I reckoned Labour would not do that bad & a hung parliment was possible. The reason imho was not Brexit but housing. I'm happy to see that housing is becoming front centre of everything. I think victory at next GE will go to the party that offer detailed plans of how they will build council housing estates on the scale of the 60s/70s. I would guess voters would trust a Corbyn lead Labour party to deliver that more so than the Tories.
 
Conservative Brexiters turn fire on Philip Hammond's Treasury

seems the vermin are starting to proper go for it the "circular firing sqaud" department.

Team remain want May to sack Johnson. Team brexit want May to sack the chancellor. Team Panic Button want May to sack her self.

Also notable for an early sighting of the "stab in the back" narrative for brexits inevitable failure as Bernard Jenkin argues that

the EU had “coopted the CBI, parts of the City and, it seems, the Treasury” to assist it in making the Brexit process difficult and damaging. “They are legitimising EU threats of economic disruption,” he said.
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Torygraph own take on it - most of article is paywalled - but the opening paragraph is fun -

Boris Johnson will 'just say no' if Theresa May tries to sack him amid calls for 'miserable' Philip Hammond to face axe

Boris Johnson will "just say no" if Theresa May tries to demote him, his allies have said as they warned sacking him as Foreign Secretary would undermine Brexit and destabilise the Government.

The Prime Minister is instead being urged by members of her Cabinet to sack Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, for "making Brexit hard" and being "miserable".

Mrs May indicated that Mr Johnson could be moved into another Cabinet role in a reshuffle at the end of the month, saying that she would not "hide from a challenge".

Her comments prompted a furious response from Mr Johnson's backers, with one Tory minister saying that there is a "stench of death" emanating from Downing Street.
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FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

Worth remembering that those tories going public with their posion - Shapps, Nadine Doris, Heseltine, Jenkins - are very likely acting as mouthpieces for government ministers.
 
Lolz. Surprisingly, out of the cabinet, that awful wanker Hammond has actually done some real life work stuff before he became an MP ( rarified *work* obvs but these things are all comparative).

Aon an aside, there is something deeply unsatisfying about Rudd - I cannot put my finger on it and Don't think its latent sexism in me, but something about her that gives me the unease that I do not get with the rest of them
 
Kaka Tim said:
Torygraph own take on it - most of article is paywalled - but the opening paragraph is fun -

Boris Johnson will 'just say no' if Theresa May tries to sack him amid calls for 'miserable' Philip Hammond to face axe



FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

Worth remembering that those tories going public with their posion - Shapps, Nadine Doris, Heseltine, Jenkins - are very likely acting as mouthpieces for government ministers.
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I have this mental vision of them all in the Cabinet office and someone just chucking a knife into the middle of the table and watching them scramble for it
 
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