Theresa May's time is up

[SpackleFrog]

Not sure there'd be many tory associations mad enough to attempt a deselection of a sitting MP

Ahhhh sorry I thought you meant at an election. When would it happen normally then?

 

[Teaboy]

I've been trying to do the maths, and I've probably got it wrong but I reckon around 12 abstaining Tories would mean the govt falls. Probably. Maybe. Anyway, William Hill are doing 12-1 so I've lumped on it.

Brexit is opportunity.

The ERG will keep her in place because whilst she is there crash out is still a distinct possibility.

I think its more likely the odd Labour MP might support the government (Hoey, anyone?) then any tory MP's vote against.

 

[chilango]

It doesn't matter if she genuinely listens or not - the number don't stack up. What could she have done differently?

There's been a few points where she could've quit and forced the hands of others in way or another.

 

[SpackleFrog]

12 abstaining ex-tories. They would need to resign the whip, or would be drummed out. I don't for a second think there's 12 who'd do that.

I think it was on a different thread but you said Soubry was backing May. This wouldn't inspire me with confidence if I was May.




What did she say exactly? I couldn't find anything.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah, but the plug is only switched when the associations have to (re)select their PPCs...turkeys voting etc.

They have a pretty watertight process for this which gives near total control over who gets to be put to local associations. The people who control it - the PCP bureaucracy essentially - are pro-remain/anti-brexit. I think that's being missed by a lot of commentary now in favour of an easy tory = leave view.

 

[killer b]

I think it was on a different thread but you said Soubry was backing May. This wouldn't inspire me with confidence if I was May.




What did she say exactly? I couldn't find anything.

She told a reporter last night straight after the vote she'd be backing the government in a VONC.

 

[butchersapron]

Isolated the ERG types (who aren't that great in numbers and will never be happy with anything apart from crash out) in her own party and work with those waverers on both side of the house. There are quite a few Labour MP's from leave supporting areas who must be a bit nervous about the repercussions of being seen to vote against and potentially not delivering Brexit. Basically test the water, see what could get through the house. Isn't that what Parliamentary craft is supposed to be about?

It might not have worked but there would be a better understanding of where the numbers are at and what could work.

How? What does 'work with' mean?

 

[chilango]

12 abstaining ex-tories. They would need to resign the whip, or would be drummed out. I don't for a second think there's 12 who'd do that.

Had UKIP taken a different path, held on to it's two seats, maybe grabbed another or so in the meantime and was still led by Garage, maybe, just maybe a few might be willing to risk it.

But they didn't. So they won't.

 

[SpackleFrog]

She told a reporter last night straight after the vote she'd be backing the government in a VONC.

*shrug* I mean, I wouldn't bet on her telling the truth.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Had UKIP taken a different path, held on to it's two seats, maybe grabbed another or so in the meantime and was still led by Garage, maybe, just maybe a few might be willing to risk it.

But they didn't. So they won't.

It wouldn't be Brexiteers that would abstain though, they're tied to May.

 

[butchersapron]

There's been a few points where she could've quit and forced the hands of others in way or another.

Without quitting what else could she have done other than try and get a deal with the eu and simultaneously seek to mollify both sides of her party who were attacking her for doing what she has to and what they demand she does? She couldn't capitulate to either side.

 

[killer b]

*shrug* I mean, I wouldn't bet on her telling the truth.

I'd bet on her wanting to remain a Tory MP.

 

[chilango]

Without quitting what else could she have done other than try and get a deal with the eu and simultaneously seek to mollify both sides of her party who were attacking her for doing what she has to and what they demand she does? She couldn't capitulate to either side.

Nothing. she's been utterly fucked all along.

As have we all.

 

[killer b]

Nothing. she's been utterly fucked all along.

She could probably have squeezed something through if she hadn't have called the election tbf. That's what really fucked her.

 

[butchersapron]

...and to add to the post above, people also forget that a majority of labour seats (61%) voted to leave, so that's the figure that needs to be borne in mind, not guff about labour voters or party members as a whole when doing this.

 

[butchersapron]

Nothing. she's been utterly fucked all along.

As have we all.

Well, i've had no extra fucking over this beyond it being more expensive to buy books from the US.

 

[chilango]

Well, i've had no extra fucking over this beyond it being more expensive to buy books from the US.

Fucked as in having no power to make Brexit happen, or not.

 

[chilango]

...and to add to the post above, people also forget that a majority of labour seats (61%) voted to leave, so that's the figure that needs to be borne in mind, not guff about labour voters or party members as a whole when doing this.

Do you think the Parties are bearing this in mind?

 

[butchersapron]

Fucked as in having no power to make Brexit happen, or not.

And part of the ongoing enclosure of the opps that brexit opened has been the utterly mad focus on politicians parties and arithmetic.

 

[butchersapron]

Do you think the Parties are bearing this in mind?

I think they are totally - commentary on here no so much.

 

[Teaboy]

How? What does 'work with' mean?

She could have taken a less party political approach. It was clear that Brexit did not follow party lines and spanned various different divides. She could have taken that approach to the house. Held rounds of discussions, all those meetings they have in little rooms behind closed doors. Thrash out what individual MP's across the house could accept as Brexit.

When she invited the leaders of SNP and Plaid for meetings it was clear from their reaction that May was not going to involve them in any way, to even attempt to get some sort vague agreement. She doesn't appear to have bothered at all with Labour.

As I say, it might not have worked but she'd surely be in a better position than now, at least she could say she tried.

 

[Spymaster]

I could totally accept the idea that it's possible for the Tories to hang on in some mutated form until 2022 but the idea that it's inevitable is nonsense.

So give us a set of circumstances that could realistically end otherwise.

 

[chilango]

And part of the ongoing enclosure of the opps that brexit opened has been the utterly mad focus on politicians parties and arithmetic.

Yeah

And I'm as sucked into this as everyone else.

Spectating.

 

[chilango]

I think they are totally - commentary on here no so much.

So what do you think this doing as far as their strategy right now goes?

 

[butchersapron]

She could have taken a less party political approach. It was clear that Brexit did not follow party lines and spanned various different divides. She could have taken that approach to the house. Held rounds of discussions, all those meetings they have in little rooms behind closed doors. Thrash out what individual MP's across the house could accept as Brexit.

When she invited the leaders of SNP and Plaid for meetings it was clear from their reaction that May was not going to involve them in any way, to even attempt to get some sort vague agreement. She doesn't appear to have bothered at all with Labour.

As I say, it might not have worked but she'd surely be in a better position than now, at least she could say she tried.

You think the EU would have gone ah look at her trying to be inclusive with a plan that at most could get her 5 more votes, let's give her a great brexit deal and forget our wider and longer term interests in punishing all who question us?

 

[belboid]

This was inevitable though. Whoever was PM now would be in the same position. If the roles were reversed do you think JC would heve done a better job? He's now making as much political capital out of the tory discomfort, as he has to, but that's all he can do and it'll come to nothing. Today's vote is a waste of time. As we said yesterday, the path is laid and it leads to R2 and a tory government at least to 22. Again inevitable. Other things could happen, but they won't.

I imagine Corbyn would at least know how to pretend to play the game, and would make the token effort of speaking to the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Nothing will change, but not being seen to play the game undermines her even more in the eyes of 'progressive' tories

 

[belboid]

So give us a set of circumstances that could realistically end otherwise.

The Great Tory War of 19-20

 

[butchersapron]

So what do you think this doing as far as their strategy right now goes?

In labour it clearly means this constructive ambiguity - last election managed to avoid it, maybe not next. Tories more get softest most remain brexit possible so sitting MPs can say they tried to all sides. In both parties it's a case of membership vs centre and neither accurately reflecting the wider leave constituencies.

 

[SpackleFrog]

So give us a set of circumstances that could realistically end otherwise.

Different government. Election. Referendum. Something.

May is going this year. How do the Tories hold together and avoid an Election?

 

[kebabking]

...May is going this year. How do the Tories hold together and avoid an Election?

Corbyn.

There's not one single Tory or DUP MP who would prefer - or take the serious risk of - a Corbyn led government over almost any of the Tory prospective leaders.

There's a huge amount of hate and bitterness within the PCP, but there are lots of possibles that the PCP could live with if the alternative was Corbyn.

They have nowhere to go - like the DUP - so they'll stick together through gritted teeth.