Theresa May's time is up

[Yossarian]

 

[Pickman's model]

No....

 

[brogdale]

No. 10 last night.

 

[gosub]

All corbyn wants is to create disunity. As opposed to all the unity we have now.

Ah you mean datunity

 

[Kaka Tim]

amazing that she is still prime minister. completely devoid of authority. utterly humiliated. everything she's worked for since becoming PM reduced to rubble. And now utterly incapable of finding a way out of the mess - because all she can do is obsessively repeat the same failure.
But she' still there - because none of her own party want the job until brexit is resolved.
Its like some grim absurdist beckett play. "Waiting for Junker"

 

[brogdale]

amazing that she is still prime minister. completely devoid of authority. utterly humiliated. everything she's worked for since becoming PM reduced to rubble. And now utterly incapable of finding a way out of the mess - because all she can do is obsessively repeat the same failure.
But she' still there - because none of her own party want the job until brexit is resolved.
Its like some grim absurdist beckett play. "Waiting for Junker"

PCP aversion to ( & fear of?) a GE is also keeping her in place.

 

[SpackleFrog]

amazing that she is still prime minister. completely devoid of authority. utterly humiliated. everything she's worked for since becoming PM reduced to rubble. And now utterly incapable of finding a way out of the mess - because all she can do is obsessively repeat the same failure.
But she' still there - because none of her own party want the job until brexit is resolved.
Its like some grim absurdist beckett play. "Waiting for Junker"

I mean to be fair, even now there are plenty of Tory MP's who want the job.

 

[SpackleFrog]

PCP aversion to ( & fear of?) a GE is also keeping her in place.

They can't reject her deal and prevent a GE forever though, at some point they need another strategy.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I mean to be fair, even now there are plenty of Tory MP's who want the job.

the cabinet are all sitting on their hands. and none of the backbenchers are calling for her to go. Shes tied to the wheel of a sinking ship whilst they all look on.

 

[Teaboy]

They can't reject her deal and prevent a GE forever though, at some point they need another strategy.

You can if you're in favour of a hard brexit, crash out. I think the ERG would have been pretty happy with last night. Theirs is probably the trickiest route given the opposition they face from both in Parliament and from business bosses, yet it is still the one outcome that is on course.

 

[brogdale]

They can't reject her deal and prevent a GE forever though, at some point they need another strategy.

Thing is...both sets of 'tory rebels' have an interest in keeping her in place; the swivel-eyed loons think it'll yield their WTO nirvana and the remainiacs know that they're toast in their local associations & won't get reselected.
I think from now until March 29th the party political will become less and less relevant.

 

[billy_bob]

The idea of volunteering for the top job at the moment reminds me of that old joke about the devil showing a new arrival his different options for eternal punishment. They're all in the 'Tea break's over - back on your heads' room right now, being very careful not to agree to anything.

 

[belboid]

even Yvette Cooper complaining about May refusing to speak to Corbyn. She's totally fucked

 

[brogdale]

even Yvette Cooper complaining about May refusing to speak to Corbyn. She's totally fucked

View attachment 158856

No point in any 'talks' until she ditches some 'red lines', but when she does that she'll lose a VoNC.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I propose adopting the Gazebo as the unit of severity of political crisis

 

[Teaboy]

After the last election May gave a speech saying how she is listening and she will reach out to others and then carried on as normal. We were all told about her conciliatory tone when she met with the PCP after the election who were very much gunning for her, since then she has readily dismissed vast swathes of them. When the faced the no confidence vote from her own party and a large number voted against her she did the same 'I'm listening, I will reach out' speech, she then went straight back to doing exactly as she was before hand.

She made a similar speech again last night, its mad that anyone thinks she was doing anything other than lying to buy a bit more time as she has done consistently throughout. She won't even involve vast swathes of her own party or a party she relies on to prop up her government. She sure as hell isn't going to speak to any opposition parties.

More rounds of cajoling, bribing and brow beating her own MP's before presenting the same deal again and getting beaten again, rinse and repeat until she is put out of her misery.

 

[butchersapron]

After the last election May gave a speech saying how she is listening and she will reach out to others and then carried on as normal. We were all told about her conciliatory tone when she met with the PCP after the election who were very much gunning for her, since then she has readily dismissed vast swathes of them. When the faced the no confidence vote from her own party and a large number voted against her she did the same 'I'm listening, I will reach out' speech, she then went straight back to doing exactly as she was before hand.

She made a similar speech again last night, its mad that anyone thinks she was doing anything other than lying to buy a bit more time as she has done consistently throughout. She won't even involve vast swathes of her own party or a party she relies on to prop up her government. She sure as hell isn't going to speak to any opposition parties.

More rounds of cajoling, bribing and brow beating her own MP's before presenting the same deal again and getting beaten again, rinse and repeat until she is put out of her misery.

It doesn't matter if she genuinely listens or not - the number don't stack up. What could she have done differently?

 

[Kaka Tim]

After the last election May gave a speech saying how she is listening and she will reach out to others and then carried on as normal. We were all told about her conciliatory tone when she met with the PCP after the election who were very much gunning for her, since then she has readily dismissed vast swathes of them. When the faced the no confidence vote from her own party and a large number voted against her she did the same 'I'm listening, I will reach out' speech, she then went straight back to doing exactly as she was before hand.

She made a similar speech again last night, its mad that anyone thinks she was doing anything other than lying to buy a bit more time as she has done consistently throughout. She won't even involve vast swathes of her own party or a party she relies on to prop up her government. She sure as hell isn't going to speak to any opposition parties.

More rounds of cajoling, bribing and brow beating her own MP's before presenting the same deal again and getting beaten again, rinse and repeat until she is put out of her misery.

exactly this. i dont think shes capable of doing anything else. shes a nutjob.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Thing is...both sets of 'tory rebels' have an interest in keeping her in place; the swivel-eyed loons think it'll yield their WTO nirvana and the remainiacs know that they're toast in their local associations & won't get reselected.
I think from now until March 29th the party political will become less and less relevant.

The Remainiacs are toast anyway aren't they...?

 

[brogdale]

The Remainiacs are toast anyway aren't they...?

Yeah, but the plug is only switched when the associations have to (re)select their PPCs...turkeys voting etc.

 

[Spymaster]

even Yvette Cooper complaining about May refusing to speak to Corbyn. She's totally fucked

This was inevitable though. Whoever was PM now would be in the same position. If the roles were reversed do you think JC would heve done a better job? He's now making as much political capital out of the tory discomfort, as he has to, but that's all he can do and it'll come to nothing. Today's vote is a waste of time. As we said yesterday, the path is laid and it leads to R2 and a tory government at least to 22. Again inevitable. Other things could happen, but they won't.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I've been trying to do the maths, and I've probably got it wrong but I reckon around 12 abstaining Tories would mean the govt falls. Probably. Maybe. Anyway, William Hill are doing 12-1 so I've lumped on it.

Brexit is opportunity.

 

[SpackleFrog]

This was inevitable though. Whoever was PM now would be in the same position. If the roles were reversed do you think JC would heve done a better job? He's now making as much political capital out of the tory discomfort, as he has to, but that's all he can do and it'll come to nothing. Today's vote is a waste of time. As we said yesterday, the path is laid and it leads to R2 and a tory government at least to 22. Again inevitable. Other things could happen, but they won't.

This is absolutely ludicrous. I could totally accept the idea that it's possible for the Tories to hang on in some mutated form until 2022 but the idea that it's inevitable is nonsense.

 

[brogdale]

This was inevitable though. Whoever was PM now would be in the same position. If the roles were reversed do you think JC would heve done a better job? He's now making as much political capital out of the tory discomfort, as he has to, but that's all he can do and it'll come to nothing. Today's vote is a waste of time. As we said yesterday, the path is laid and it leads to R2 and a tory government at least to 22. Again inevitable. Other things could happen, but they won't.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yeah, but the plug is only switched when the associations have to (re)select their PPCs...turkeys voting etc.

Aye but there doesn't have to be a General Election does there?

 

[danny la rouge]

I've been trying to do the maths, and I've probably got it wrong but I reckon around 12 abstaining Tories would mean the govt falls. Probably. Maybe. Anyway, William Hill are doing 12-1 so I've lumped on it.

Brexit is opportunity.

Has the Guardian done an interactive game?

 

[Teaboy]

It doesn't matter if she genuinely listens or not - the number don't stack up. What could she have done differently?

Isolated the ERG types (who aren't that great in numbers and will never be happy with anything apart from crash out) in her own party and work with those waverers on both side of the house. There are quite a few Labour MP's from leave supporting areas who must be a bit nervous about the repercussions of being seen to vote against and potentially not delivering Brexit. Basically test the water, see what could get through the house. Isn't that what Parliamentary craft is supposed to be about?

It might not have worked but there would be a better understanding of where the numbers are at and what could work.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Has the Guardian done an interactive game?

They did one for May's deal last night - helped me work out how many Tories she needed!

 

[brogdale]

Aye but there doesn't have to be a General Election does there?

Not sure there'd be many tory associations mad enough to attempt a deselection of a sitting MP

 

[killer b]

I've been trying to do the maths, and I've probably got it wrong but I reckon around 12 abstaining Tories would mean the govt falls. Probably. Maybe. Anyway, William Hill are doing 12-1 so I've lumped on it.

Brexit is opportunity.

12 abstaining ex-tories. They would need to resign the whip, or would be drummed out. I don't for a second think there's 12 who'd do that.