Theresa May's time is up

[Pickman's model]

I was just on the bus and literally going down Whitehall as she was delivering that statement. I caught sight of her from the top deck as I was listening to it on Radio 4 which was surreal.

Tim Farron was also on the same bus, which was less interesting.

tom farron defends himself by a sphere of ennui which deters potential assailants from putting the boot in.

 

[killer b]

Matt Singh has 159 declared support for May - I'd say she's safe.

 

[chilango]

Ideal result a May win, but as narrow as possible?

 

[killer b]

Not sure. If she loses and a no-deal headbanger takes the leadership, then a parliamentary VONC and general election are probably more likely I think?

 

[Teaboy]

For all the support she receiving now its hard to imagine many tories mp's would want her to lead them into the next election. Whichever way you look at it she's probably going to out within 6 months.

 

[skyscraper101]

Worth noting. Thatcher led on the first round of the no confidence, but also resigned before the next round (IIRC?) I think May would dig her heels in more though. Plus different rules etc now I think.

 

[killer b]

Worth noting. Thatcher led on the first round of the no confidence, but also left. I think May would dig her heels in more though. Plus different rules etc now I think.

Totally different rules now though. She was expected to lose a second round - if May wins a VONC there isn't a second round.

 

[Teaboy]

Worth noting. Thatcher won the no confidence, but also left. I think May would dig her heels in more though.

Yeah, drag the country through Brexit by hook or by crook and then resign. Though how she is going to do that is not clear at all.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Worth noting. Thatcher led on the first round of the no confidence, but also resigned before the next round (IIRC?) I think May would dig her heels in more though. Plus different rules etc now I think.

Thatcher won, but not by enough, she was 4 votes short of the required 15% majority, so it was going to a second ballot, which she said she would fight, before having her mind changed after consultation with the Cabinet, because they thought she would lose.

As killer b says, the rules have changed, she could win by just one vote & in theory she would be safe.

 

[chilango]

Not sure. If she loses and a no-deal headbanger takes the leadership, then a parliamentary VONC and general election are probably more likely I think?

Yeah.

I think what I want is her to scrape through, thus ruling out the possibility of an internal change but with enough pissed off Tories losing their shit over it and being willing to aid a successful vote of no confidence in the govt.

...then a GE.

Then a Corbyn led Socialist Utopia. Or at least a mildly social democratic breathing space for a few years whilst we sort our shit out.

Right?

/Daydream.

 

[Lord Camomile]

For all the support she receiving now its hard to imagine many tories mp's would want her to lead them into the next election. Whichever way you look at it she's probably going to out within 6 months.

If she wins this they can't vote again for a year, right? So some may think "now or not soon enough"?

 

[killer b]

enough pissed off Tories losing their shit over it and being willing to aid a successful vote of no confidence in the govt.

this isn't going to happen if May wins.

 

[Teaboy]

If she wins this they can't vote again for a year, right? So some may think "now or not soon enough"?

Yes its a possibility some will consider but its hard to think that even May would insist on carrying on if enough of her MP's told her it was time to go by way of informal chats.

 

[Sasaferrato]

For all the support she receiving now its hard to imagine many tories mp's would want her to lead them into the next election. Whichever way you look at it she's probably going to out within 6 months.

Well, if she wins this evening, she's safe for a year.

 

[Lucy Fur]

Well, if she wins this evening, she's safe for a year.

Does this also prohibit the opposition launching a vote of no confidence?

 

[Teaboy]

Well, if she wins this evening, she's safe for a year.

My thinking is that it'll either be Brexit achieved (somehow) and she will resign straight away or general election and she will have to resign regardless of the rules, the reality will take over. We'll see.

 

[Teaboy]

Does this also prohibit the opposition launching a vote of no confidence?

No, that would be no confidence in the government, this is no confidence in her being leader of the tories.

 

[chilango]

Do you see any route to a GE, or even a vonc in this?

this isn't going to happen if May wins.

 

[Pickman's model]

Does this also prohibit the opposition launching a vote of no confidence?

think that'll wait until we see whether this morning's government is tomorrow morning's government

 

[cupid_stunt]

Vince Cable thinks she will win.

 

[Kaka Tim]

shes arguing that if she goes then a new leader would have to revoke A50 because time would have run out.
From what ive heard some of the moggladytes saying it seems their "plan" is to get a brexiteer in, revoke a50, then re-trigger it and plan for a "managed no deal" in 2 years time.
As i understand it - revoking and retriggering a50 would require parliament to vote it through - which leaves open the possibility of the brexiteers winning the vote to stop the brexit process - then losing the vote to restart it. Which would be very very funny indeed.

 

[killer b]

Do you see any route to a GE, or even a vonc in this?

If she wins and pushes ahead with her deal, I can see a situation where the DUP peel off. If she loses and a headbanger takes the reins, it's feasible some Tory remainers might. Fuck knows though.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Yeah.

I think what I want is her to scrape through, thus ruling out the possibility of an internal change but with enough pissed off Tories losing their shit over it and being willing to aid a successful vote of no confidence in the govt.

...then a GE.

Then a Corbyn led Socialist Utopia. Or at least a mildly social democratic breathing space for a few years whilst we sort our shit out.

Right?

/Daydream.

A Corbyn government would not be a daydream, it would be a nightmare.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Fuck knows.

probably the overwhelming consensus as to what might happen

 

[chilango]

A Corbyn government would not be a daydream, it would be a nightmare.

For who though?

 

[Teaboy]

Do you see any route to a GE, or even a vonc in this?

At the moment the DUP can take comfort in the fact that Parliament is not behind May's deal so can say with confidence they'd back her in a vonc. It would be interesting to see if May can get those numbers to change and could potentially get her deal through with the backstop intact, under those circumstances would the DUP pull the plug on their arrangement? That is one route to a GE.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Yeah.

I think what I want is her to scrape through, thus ruling out the possibility of an internal change but with enough pissed off Tories losing their shit over it and being willing to aid a successful vote of no confidence in the govt.

...then a GE.

Then a Corbyn led Socialist Utopia. Or at least a mildly social democratic breathing space for a few years whilst we sort our shit out.

Right?

/Daydream.

More cops though.

 

[Lucy Fur]

At the moment the DUP can take comfort in the fact that Parliament is not behind May's deal so can say with confidence they'd back her in a vonc. It would be interesting to see if May can get those numbers to change and could potentially get her deal through with the backstop intact, under those circumstances would the DUP pull the plug on their arrangement? That is one route to a GE.

Apparently this is happening:

 

[chilango]

More cops though.

Under Corbyn?

Yeah.

But right now we're too weak to create an alternative to cops.

 

[AnandLeo]

Matt Singh has 159 declared support for May - I'd say she's safe.

What a bunch of posh yobs these MPs are? They have nothing better to do than stoking crisis in their own house.