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Theresa May's time is up

i think May will hang on, if so, the question is what effect that will have on Tory 'rebels', will they at least partly fall in line or split the party further. I cant see how they can split further, what more shots theyve got, so maybe they will fall in line? A bit at least.
 
If she wins. Which is the most likely outcome at the time of writing...what next?

Is she more likely to get her deal through or not?

How much will the margin of her victory impact upon those numbers, if at all?

What else, if anything, might it change?
 
Will be funny as fuck is she hints at stepping down before the next election to get through today's vote then declares she's staying on for the next election.
 
May would appear to have secured her position for a year by persuading some of her supporting members to write to Brady topping up his received letters to 48 from around 35 thereby triggering the vote that she is certain win.
 
If she wins. Which is the most likely outcome at the time of writing...what next?

Is she more likely to get her deal through or not?

How much will the margin of her victory impact upon those numbers, if at all?

What else, if anything, might it change?

I don't see how anything changes tbh. That's what makes it a strange strategy by the erg.
 
I don't see how anything changes tbh. That's what makes it a strange strategy by the erg.
If they had control of the 48 letters i.e. had the extra couple needed to get to 48, they should have either done it after the cabinet deal and resignations, or have been ready to do it after May lost the vote in the commons this week (which may have been their strategy, but of course the vote didn't take place). I suspect they've never been in a position to dictate the point when the 48 was reached - or if they have been, today is in odd point to do it. Or, to put it another way, had the 48 been something they precipitated today, the ideal would have been to have a press conference about her contempt for parliament, followed by the announcement that the 48 had been reached. Basically, today isn't of their doing.

Sorry, that's a convoluted way of saying today wasn't the right time to try and get May, which is an illustration the erg haven't got as many troops as they think.
 
noone actually supports the erg nutters do they. especially given that the tory party has no social base relative to 20th C. I don't even think they know what they're doing because their whole shtick has been antipolitics but they couldn't play the populist game either.
 
noone actually supports the erg nutters do they. especially given that the tory party has no social base relative to 20th C. I don't even think they know what they're doing because their whole shtick has been antipolitics but they couldn't play the populist game either.
It's certainly a shallow populism. There's a media/Westminster notion that Rees-Mogg has something to say to 'the people', a point of engagement that somehow emerges from the fact that he is so ridiculous and posh. It's bollocks, but says something about the May-Cameron-Miliband generation that by contrast he's seen as being more 'colourful'.
 
If they had control of the 48 letters i.e. had the extra couple needed to get to 48, they should have either done it after the cabinet deal and resignations, or have been ready to do it after May lost the vote in the commons this week (which may have been their strategy, but of course the vote didn't take place). I suspect they've never been in a position to dictate the point when the 48 was reached - or if they have been, today is in odd point to do it. Or, to put it another way, had the 48 been something they precipitated today, the ideal would have been to have a press conference about her contempt for parliament, followed by the announcement that the 48 had been reached. Basically, today isn't of their doing.

Sorry, that's a convoluted way of saying today wasn't the right time to try and get May, which is an illustration the erg haven't got as many troops as they think.

RE: The bolded bit.

There was something on the BBC ticker earlier quoting a senior person as saying something along the lines of "We may not get a new leader but we will certainly get a new leader for the 22".

This would back up your point that some shenanigans behind the scenes has wrong footed them.
 
Will be funny as fuck is she hints at stepping down before the next election to get through today's vote then declares she's staying on for the next election.
Yeah, I really can't imagine any of those Tory MPs will be stupid enough to fall for that one :rolleyes:
 
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