Theresa May's time is up

[ska invita]

I get a bit annoyed with the Tories Are Incompetent bit - they've run this country for the last 40 years straight (if you include Thatchers "greatest achievement" New Labour years) and seem to be doing an amazing job of getting a majority of people to back them time and again. Fuck sake, that budget got them a bounce in the polls supposedly, thats the country we live in. I wish they were incompetent.

I live in Bromley, A London extension of the deep Tory Kent heaertland. Tory support here runs deep and across class lines. From here you can imagine indefinite Tory rule without any difficulty.

Capitulating to the EU without destroying the conservative party and ushering in a Corbyn government is the trick. A bit more troublesome.

This is true...I can see scenarios that dont involve losing to Corbyn though..the most likely would be one where the House of Commons in common 'take control' of the situation in some fashion once They vote down Her deal. That gets her off the hook and shares the blame around neatly. Labour are going to be complicit in all that in a big way.

 

[killer b]

Who's going to accept 'sharing round the blame'? Avoiding being in the firing line for blame for this clusterfuck has been one of the key ingredients of the last 24 months of political activity...

 

[ska invita]

Who's going to accept 'sharing round the blame'? Avoiding being in the firing line for blame for this clusterfuck has been one of the key ingredients of the last 24 months of political activity...

Not sure I understand your question.
Im saying (a possible version of what happens next is)
*The Commons will vote down May's plan - at that point they collectively take on a responsibility.
*What happens next will be decided by the Commons (art50 extension, 2nd referendum, Norway model) - most likely steps away from Brexit, definitely from a hard Brexit, and Labour's fence sitting runs out at that point.
*May can say: a did the best I could, its the Commons (esp Labour) who blocked it...and now they want to do X Y Z - cue Enemy of the People narrative on a loop

I can picture that

 

[billy_bob]

I get a bit annoyed with the Tories Are Incompetent bit

I know what you mean. I did say 'simultaneously vicious and useless' further up, which may sound much the same but I don't think I meant 'incompetent' exactly. What I meant was more that plenty of them don't seem to have much in the way of skills or aptitude for holding power other than (1) the Cameron-style assumption that you will because you were brought up to, or (2) Grayling-style levels of ideological fanaticism that get a certain amount done despite the zealot in question's other apparent shortcomings.

 

[DJWrongspeed]

John Wittingdale (ugh) was the radio last night saying that once parliament votes down her proposal May will then have to go. This seem likely for sure.

That said, today it doesn't look like there's even going to be a deal to vote on ? So I'm even more unclear .......
There seems to be a general 'we don't know' in parliament. i can't remember a time like it.

 

[killer b]

How many times has it been the last chance saloon for May though? I won't believe it until she's in the limo with a tear in her eye...

 

[ska invita]

John Wittingdale (ugh) was the radio last night saying that once parliament votes down her proposal May will then have to go. This seem likely for sure.

That said, today it doesn't look like there's even going to be a deal to vote on ? So I'm even more unclear .......
There seems to be a general 'we don't know' in parliament. i can't remember a time like it.

It would be up to her to resign. I can imagine her not doing so. If she resigns doesn't that also trigger a lengthy election process? Internal is long enough, general election even longer.

That could easily lead to a drift to the March deadline which would in turn lead to a no deal brexit. Partly why she may not stand down and have support not too.

Back to speculation again, trying not to get to involved in that.

 

[billy_bob]

Back to speculation again, trying not to get to involved in that.

Wrong thread, then...

It's in her interests to cling on - her only hope of coming out of the whole thing with any dignity is if she can preside over not completely fucking up the deal. And it's in others' interests to leave her to it as long as there's a good chance it'll be a complete fuck-up and they want to be well clear of the splashback.

 

[killer b]

If she resigns doesn't that also trigger a lengthy election process?

Nope.

 

[killer b]

There would be pressure to call an election and her successor might well do so - but there's no obligation. cf. Gordon Brown, May herself both taking office without a general election.

 

[ska invita]

Nope.

What happens?

 

[killer b]

What happens?

the tories elect another leader, who is then prime minister.

 

[ska invita]

There would be pressure to call an election and her successor might well do so - but there's no obligation. cf. Gordon Brown, May herself both taking office without a general election.

May won an internal election
Can't remember if Brown did?

 

[ska invita]

the tories elect another leader, who is then prime minister.

Yeah that's what I mean, that internal election takes a few weeks

 

[steeplejack]

May's whole schtick since day one has been to muddle through and survive week to week, and it is pretty remarkable it has worked for so long.

She's run out of road, though. Pretty clearly the EU won't be helping her out with any kind of fabricated "deal" (which would be nothing of the kind, anyway). If she were to stay she'd be faced with the choice of lying that a crap deal is somehow good for the country, or enforcing a long period of misery through clinging onto power to ensure a no deal outcome.

May has no mandate for a no deal Brexit- absolutely no one voted for that and no one other than the wingnut faxtion of the Tory party will support it. Decisive moments will come when she is finally forced out.

 

[killer b]

Yeah that's what I mean, that internal election takes a few weeks

oh yeah - well, the last couple of times it's happened (May & Brown) they've been more or less unapposed. Don't expect that will happen this time, but who knows - people are always full of admiration at how quickly the tories can sort out this kind of bloodshed when it happens.

 

[teqniq]

I have no admiration, plenty of cynicism though.

 

[ska invita]

oh yeah - well, the last couple of times it's happened (May & Brown) they've been more or less unapposed. Don't expect that will happen this time, but who knows - people are always full of admiration at how quickly the tories can sort out this kind of bloodshed when it happens.

Come on Andrea Leadsom! Second time lucky....

 

[ska invita]

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Interesting piece, mainly about Corbyns position, but especially the bit that suggests Mays deal could pass after an initial vote down and amendments, and that some MPs are discussing that scenario. She's not gone yet

ETA annoying ft links

 

[Wilf]

John Wittingdale (ugh) was the radio last night saying that once parliament votes down her proposal May will then have to go. This seem likely for sure.

That said, today it doesn't look like there's even going to be a deal to vote on ? So I'm even more unclear .......
There seems to be a general 'we don't know' in parliament. i can't remember a time like it.

I heard the same programme, with the house of commons clerk feller on. My interpretation of what he said was that it would be difficult for the government to accept amendments in the commons 'in the normal way'. Wasn't entirely sure what he meant, but my reading of the situation was that the government would still have substantial control of the process, which my guess is might include re-voting, bringing their own amendments to get things through and the rest. Anyway, we'll see about that. For now, I imagine the real hurdle is getting it through cabinet. Preferment has gone, the whole cabinet know she will never make appointments again. They can vote in ways that position themselves for the next leader. By and large, MPs are scum who can be railroaded into anything - well, almost anything. Brexit is a case that will really test that.

 

[Poi E]

I get a bit annoyed with the Tories Are Incompetent bit - they've run this country for the last 40 years straight (if you include Thatchers "greatest achievement" New Labour years) and seem to be doing an amazing job of getting a majority of people to back them time and again. Fuck sake, that budget got them a bounce in the polls supposedly, thats the country we live in. I wish they were incompetent.

I live in Bromley, A London extension of the deep Tory Kent heaertland. Tory support here runs deep and across class lines. From here you can imagine indefinite Tory rule without any difficulty.


This is true...I can see scenarios that dont involve losing to Corbyn though..the most likely would be one where the House of Commons in common 'take control' of the situation in some fashion once They vote down Her deal. That gets her off the hook and shares the blame around neatly. Labour are going to be complicit in all that in a big way.

It's mainly the votes from England that keep them in.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Last nights Lord Mayors speech by her mayship - stated that the preservation of the union is one of the handful of fixed aims in this process

She has fucking no grasp on reality has she ?

 

[Pickman's model]

Last nights Lord Mayors speech by her mayship - stated that the preservation of the union is one of the handful of fixed aims in this process

She has fucking no grasp on reality has she ?

 

[elbows]

 

[ska invita]

It's mainly the votes from England that keep them in.

yes...heres something i saw yesterday -
'A political choice': UN envoy says UK can help all who hit hard times
UN visiting Jaywick (several times described as most deprived part of the UK - in Essex, just south of Clacton) about Austerity - people sharing how hard life is and about the cuts in services - who do they consistently vote for? Tories.
By some margin (more than double) at the last election
Essex in general

 

[redsquirrel]

yes...heres something i saw yesterday -
'A political choice': UN envoy says UK can help all who hit hard times
UN visiting Jaywick (several times described as most deprived part of the UK - in Essex, just south of Clacton) about Austerity - people sharing how hard life is and about the cuts in services - who do they consistently vote for? Tories.
By some margin (more than double) at the last election
Essex in general

Are you really continuing this nonsense. You who has argued that people must vote X to keep out the fascists?

I getting a majority of people to back them time and again.

Really, when over the last 40 years has a majority of people living in this country "backed the Tories"?

Incidentally when German voters vote for your favourites the German Green Party are they endorsing neo-liberalism and NATO bombing campaigns?

 

[butchersapron]

It's mainly the votes from England that keep them in.

It's mainly the votes from england that do anything at all because of the size of the country. Why turn that to nationalist crap. You never used to be such a fucking dolt. You keep saying this when voting results over the last two general elections have show that it's england where labour - and labour under a left leadership - has out electorally outpeformed other areas and past non-left labour leaders. This rancid stuff day day after day from some one like you - a supposed comrade - is a fucking dagger in the heart. It's beyond anti british statism and into outright nationalism. Fuck that. Sort yourself out.

 

[co-op]

You keep saying this when voting results over the last two general elections have show that it's england where labour - and labour under a left leadership - has out electorally outpeformed other areas and past non-left labour leaders.

Yes! There's even a dose-effect; under Miliband when Labour tiptoed nervously left, the English Labour vote went up by a million votes. Under Corbyn when Labour took a confident and public step left the Labour vote went up by 3.5 million, while almost standing still in Scotland, so this was a huge increase in the English (and Welsh) Labour votes.

Outside of London the English Labour vote went up by a greater % than inside London. Done as pure numbers the English Labour (non-London) vote went up by 43% in just two years between 2015 & 2017 (this from memory, I did the calculations but I'm on another computer). This is totally unprecedented in electoral history.

 

[co-op]

Incidentally when German voters vote for your favourites the German Green Party are they endorsing neo-liberalism and NATO bombing campaigns?

Like when Joschka Fischer was the Foreign Secretary and kept Germany out of the Iraq invasion?

 

[redsquirrel]

Like when Joschka Fischer was the Foreign Secretary and kept Germany out of the Iraq invasion?

Are you going to try and make Chirac and de Villepin anti-war politicians too?

The German Greens strongly back NATO, they supported the bombing in the Balkans, they've sold out time and time again. That fact that the German foreign minister happened to be a member (in what government BTW) of them during the time when the US launched perhaps the most unpopular western military adventure in recent times hardly makes then some anti-war heroes.