Theresa May's time is up

[Kaka Tim]

Now then - if may cant get a Brexit deal through parliament (and she's struggling to get it even through cabinet at the moment) - I think she will have to resign.
I think may going and the government collapsing within the next 5 weeks is definitely a plausible scenario now.
the fact that both tory remainers and leavers are planning to vote down her proposed deal has surely cooked her goose.

 

[Wilf]

Now then - if may cant get a Brexit deal through parliament (and she's struggling to get it even through cabinet at the moment) - I think she will have to resign.
I think may going and the government collapsing within the next 5 weeks is definitely a plausible scenario now.
the fact that both tory remainers and leavers are planning to vote down her proposed deal has surely cooked her goose.

Everything is probably in play at the moment. Failure to get a deal and then failure to get a deal through Parliament could easily lead to her resigning or being challenged (the latter more than the former I'd have thought), though neither Tory remainers or headbangers would be that keen on doing a leadership campaign in the final throes of leaving the EU. Even less a general election.

What is still interesting is the Tories are still ahead in most of the polls. Labour have had an intellectually defensible position in terms of the 5 tests (or is it 6, can't remember), but they haven't managed to insert themselves into the political debate as the party to take control of brexit.

 

[billy_bob]

That's the real shocker, isn't it? I can't remember a more disunited, under-equipped, simultaneously vicious and useless government than this one. My own reservations about Corbyn as the saviour aside, the fact that the general public aren't storming no. 10 and carrying him in there on their shoulders suggests mind-bogglingly inept opposition.

 

[Kaka Tim]

That's the real shocker, isn't it? I can't remember a more disunited, under-equipped, simultaneously vicious and useless government than this one. My own reservations about Corbyn as the saviour aside, the fact that the general public aren't storming no. 10 and carrying him in there on their shoulders suggests mind-bogglingly inept opposition.

dunno. corbyn is very marmite. a big chunk of voters wont vote for him whatever, but he has motivated a big chunk of the previously disengaged. Essentially we are still where we are after the last election. Im not convinced that someone else would do any better - certainly not another blairite.

 

[billy_bob]

dunno. corbyn is very marmite. a big chunk of voters wont vote for him whatever, but he has motivated a big chunk of the previously disengaged. Essentially we are still where we are after the last election. Im not convinced that someone else would do any better - certainly not another blairite.

Not sure whether you're saying Corbyn is or isn't the problem. Of course he divides a crowd - but I've seen previous governments pass the 'for God's sake, anyone but them' point long before the dark place the current government has reached. On the other hand, if you think no-one else would do any better the problem is obviously bigger than him.

I tend to agree that they haven't got anyone - and certainly not any blairite - who would be any better. But in terms of whether they succeed rather than whether they're any good (which is what I was commenting on), at this point it's hard to imagine anyone doing worse at capitalising on the situation.

 

[DotCommunist]

bears repeating but its polarised. There are people who aren't going to vote corbyn no matter how bad the other side fuck up. The tide of angry voters waiting to sweep corbyn in doesn't exist- a lot of people are fine with the tories atm so long as they deliver brexit. All this 'why isn't labour ahead stuff', really. Also did everyone forget that the SNP took scotland? they appear to have done so, cos they keep wondering why labours showing is a bit light....

 

[DotCommunist]

oh and last survation I saw was lab 40 con 39 so make of that what ye will

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I tend to agree that they haven't got anyone - and certainly not any blairite - who would be any better. But in terms of whether they succeed rather than whether they're any good (which is what I was commenting on), at this point it's hard to imagine anyone doing worse at capitalising on the situation.

I think it's very easy - any of the others likely leaders would be unequivocal remainers. How would that play electorally?

 

[killer b]

I don't think a more centrist leader would do too badly electorally, on the short term - sure they'd lose some of the pro-brexit heartlands, but they'd make it up and more on right-wing voters who wouldn't conceive of voting for Corbyn - plus there'd be a significant softening of the opposition from the press.

 

[killer b]

(it'd be a disaster long-term, mind)

 

[Wilf]

bears repeating but its polarised. There are people who aren't going to vote corbyn no matter how bad the other side fuck up. The tide of angry voters waiting to sweep corbyn in doesn't exist- a lot of people are fine with the tories atm so long as they deliver brexit. All this 'why isn't labour ahead stuff', really. Also did everyone forget that the SNP took scotland? they appear to have done so, cos they keep wondering why labours showing is a bit light....

I think there's a sense that we are almost in the 'non-politics' of brexit at the moment. Brexit process is perceived of as shit and a disaster, people want it to be over and the rest, but see it almost outside of party politics. I think Labour could have changed that if they'd had a bit more to say, but it's as if normal business has been suspended. And it certainly has felt like that all the way through from the 2017 election.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Now then - if may cant get a Brexit deal through parliament (and she's struggling to get it even through cabinet at the moment) - I think she will have to resign.
I think may going and the government collapsing within the next 5 weeks is definitely a plausible scenario now.
the fact that both tory remainers and leavers are planning to vote down her proposed deal has surely cooked her goose.

Merry christmas one and all.

 

[Pickman's model]

Weak and wobbly

 

[hash tag]

Weak and wobbly

She ain't even kowtowing to her cabinet, yet alone parliament or the nation as a whole.

 

[Pickman's model]

She ain't even kowtowing to her cabinet, yet alone parliament or the nation as a whole.

There will be enough kow and tow for anyone soon enough

 

[MickiQ]

That's the real shocker, isn't it? I can't remember a more disunited, under-equipped, simultaneously vicious and useless government than this one. My own reservations about Corbyn as the saviour aside, the fact that the general public aren't storming no. 10 and carrying him in there on their shoulders suggests mind-bogglingly inept opposition.

They're not so much inept as trying not to commit themselves to anything, like the Tories they're trying to avoid alienate one bunch of key supporters to please another, Most key labour strongholds voted Leave but there is a whole new wave of younger voters who've been energised not so much by Corbyn's policy positions as the fact that he clearly hasn't come out of the same mould as Blair/Brown/Cameron/Milliband/Clegg/etc.
That group is almost entirely pro-Remain and spread around the country. labour have got away with this fence sitting because they're not in power and haven't really had to actually do anything, plus of course the current government is so utterly fucking imcompetent that no-one is paying much attention to anything else. But you can't win anything by not taking a position, they need to set out their stall but seem to be actively trying not too.

 

[killer b]

The government isn't incompetent, they're just faced with impossible electoral mathematics to push anything through - same as Labour really.

 

[a_chap]

The government isn't incompetent, they're just faced with impossible electoral mathematics to push anything through - same as Labour really.

It reminds me of the film "War Games": the only winning move is not to play.

 

[MickiQ]

The government isn't incompetent, they're just faced with impossible electoral mathematics to push anything through - same as Labour really.

They're faced with impossible maths yes but they're incompetent to boot making it worse, Many of the key figures such as May, BoJo, Davis and Mogg the Merciless also seem to have massive denial issues in facing up to the reality of that maths.
There is no reason to suspect that Labour would be any better though.

 

[killer b]

May is very much aware of the maths – it was dicey enough when she took office, which is why she called the election last year. Everyone else in parliament is keenly aware of the maths too, which is why she’s not actually received a challenge for the leadership since losing their majority. Don’t mistake rhetoric and factional positioning for what these people really think. None of them are in denial.

 

[brogdale]

The government isn't incompetent, they're just faced with impossible electoral mathematics to push anything through - same as Labour really.

The critical incompetence is obviously seated within the previous administration (many individuals common to both) for offering a plebiscite with no preparation for one possible outcome. Though I suppose, strictly speaking, it would be more accurate to describe that as towering and reckless arrogance rather than arrant incompetence.
That said, the present administration does appear to be overly blessed with ministers appearing far from competent.

 

[billy_bob]

But you can't win anything by not taking a position

This is kind of everyone's problem at the moment, isn't it? The country is 50:50 on an issue with no middle ground (or none that one side or the other doesn't regard as just as bad as losing completely).

Instinct tells me it would have been better for Corbyn to come down on one side of the fence or the other from the start - admit he wasn't really pro-remain and have done with the right of the party, or commit properly to a remain position and have some hope of convincing people he meant it. Either way he'd have alienated a bunch of people, but at the moment he's not winning over either bunch in significant enough numbers, so who knows? And instinct based on past political experience has proved increasingly unreliable anyway in recent years so perhaps everything I've said is bollox...

 

[killer b]

That said, the present administration does appear to be overly blessed with ministers appearing far from competent.

Dunno about that... I think a lot of the time, what appears to be incompetence is just someone doing something you don't like, for reasons you don't understand. The delicacy of the current political situation and the rolling scrutiny politicians are subject to atm makes it much easier to slip up, and much more difficult to fake competence than it has been in the past. Either way, I don't think this is a uniquely useless government or a uniquely useless opposition - just uniquely interesting times.

 

[Wilf]

May is very much aware of the maths – it was dicey enough when she took office, which is why she called the election last year. Everyone else in parliament is keenly aware of the maths too, which is why she’s not actually received a challenge for the leadership since losing their majority. Don’t mistake rhetoric and factional positioning for what these people really think. None of them are in denial.

This. May knows what she's doing and she knows the situation. She does though seem uniquely unable to change the dynamic and the scenario that she created by fucking up the 2017 election. She's trapped in a psychodrama of her own making. She's desperate to do a deal, any kind of deal, but must see that she's getting closer to the edge.

And also this. May is playing out Cameron's arrogance and lack of foresight:

The critical incompetence is obviously seated within the previous administration (many individuals common to both) for offering a plebiscite with no preparation for one possible outcome. Though I suppose, strictly speaking, it would be more accurate to describe that as towering and reckless arrogance rather than arrant incompetence.
That said, the present administration does appear to be overly blessed with ministers appearing far from competent.

 

[killer b]

She does though seem uniquely unable to change the dynamic and the scenario that she created by fucking up the 2017 election.

who else could change it, this side of a general election? The maths isn't going to change anytime soon...

 

[not-bono-ever]

she is going to get the boot and her life will be over- she will sit there in her luxury armchair , regretting not doing hash, having casual sex outdoors with virtual strangers , doing tequila and lines until dawn & raving when the opportunity was presented when she was a naive young thing with a glint in her eye.


( I certainly regret not doing them)

 

[Wilf]

who else could change it, this side of a general election? The maths isn't going to change anytime soon...

Oh, I agree, another leader doesn't change the maths. But she's been closed and defensive about brexit from day 1. In retrospect at least, she probably should have announced a 2nd ref on the final terms of brexit (but not in/out) as soon as she 'won' the 2017 election. She should have done roadshows and all the stuff you do when you are trying to win an actual campaign. As it is she's just been repeating mantras and looking stonefaced. I'm not trying to come up with a strategy for how to sell brexit, because I don't want the tories to come out of it with any credit. But they themselves and May in particular have defined the whole thing as an internal party battle.

 

[ska invita]

She does though seem uniquely unable to change the dynamic and the scenario that she created by fucking up the 2017 election. She's trapped in a psychodrama of her own making. She's desperate to do a deal, any kind of deal, but must see that she's getting closer to the edge.

And also this. May is playing out Cameron's arrogance and lack of foresight:

Disagree...she's a remainer and that's the direction the ship is sailing, and she's slowly steering it that way in her own way...holding off the hard brexiters, whilst remaining ahead in the polls too.

 

[ska invita]

Then again, capitulating to the EU maybe isnt the hardest of skills

 

[killer b]

Capitulating to the EU without destroying the conservative party and ushering in a Corbyn government is the trick. A bit more troublesome.