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The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

"Should Scotland be an independent country?"

  • Yes

    Votes: 43 66.2%
  • No

    Votes: 17 26.2%
  • Other

    Votes: 3 4.6%

  • Total voters
    65
  • Poll closed .

brogdale

Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
View attachment 47229

OK, so I've waited till 2014 to kick this off. I thought that after last night's broth, haggis and whisky it was as good a time as any to start the discussion about this potential moment of consequences for the UK.

To (re?)start the discussion....here goes...some polling to help the Nats with their tender heads this morning....

ALEX Salmond is within reach of victory in the independence referendum, according to an exclusive poll showing that support for the cause has grown dramatically by five percentage points over the last four months.

The largest swing towards a Yes vote recorded so far in the campaign is revealed today in an ICM survey for Scotland on Sunday, which has found that support for independence has grown from 32 per cent to 37 per cent since September.

The surge in those backing Yes was accompanied by a corresponding drop in No support by five percentage points from 49 per cent in September to 44 per cent currently.

and...

The poll also found that when the 19 per cent who said they didn’t know how they would vote were excluded, support for Yes is at 46 per cent compared with 54 per cent who said they would vote No.

There was more good news for Yes Scotland, when the “don’t knows” were pressed further on their views on independence. When they disclosed how they were “most likely” to vote, the results were factored into the equation and the pollsters found that support for independence stood at 47 per cent compared with 53 per cent in favour of No.

Game on?
 
But that polling did look interesting.

OK, only one poll and all that, but....
 
But that polling did look interesting.

OK, only one poll and all that, but....
Yes, if the Don't Knows were persuaded to join the Yes camp, and also to turn out on the day. That's a few Ifs, but it does suggest things could be more interesting than hitherto imagined. John Curtice is saying that Yes needs to concentrate on winning the economic argument, since that's what most peopleare saying will influence them.
 
Yes, if the Don't Knows were persuaded to join the Yes camp, and also to turn out on the day. That's a few Ifs, but it does suggest things could be more interesting than hitherto imagined. John Curtice is saying that Yes needs to concentrate on winning the economic argument, since that's what most peopleare saying will influence them.

Almost certainly true, but that £500 better off/worse off polling question was tragically poor polling methodology.
 
I've added the word polling to the title, so the thread might have a useful life outside of the ranty, argument style one? I suspect that there will be a great many polls on this over the coming 8 months or so.
 
Almost certainly true, but that £500 better off/worse off polling question was tragically poor polling methodology.

The justification is: "The £500 figure was a best guess for an amount of money big enough to have impact on a person's material well-being, symbolic of an improvement in an individual's standard of living, but not so large as to completely override everything else." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25846914
 
Are you asking Scots or the board in general, and if the latter, are you asking what would be better for Scotland or for narrow South British interests? As far as I'm concerned they'd be mad to leave and we'd be well rid.
 
Are you asking Scots or the board in general, and if the latter, are you asking what would be better for Scotland or for narrow South British interests? As far as I'm concerned they'd be mad to leave and we'd be well rid.

Anyone; on any basis.
 
I want Scotland to stay in the UK but would probably vote for independence were I living in Scotland.

I'm aware that I haven't got back to danny with a well thought out justification for this position :D
 
Hope this is the right thread for this - If the yes campaign won, what would it actually mean? Would it be full independence (ie. own currency, or poss the Euro, separate armed forces, etc) or is it a kind of devolution max? I remember there was some debate/discussion around this question a bit back but I don't remember hearing how it had been resolved. So what would the changes be?
 
Hope this is the right thread for this - If the yes campaign won, what would it actually mean? Would it be full independence (ie. own currency, or poss the Euro, separate armed forces, etc) or is it a kind of devolution max? I remember there was some debate/discussion around this question a bit back but I don't remember hearing how it had been resolved. So what would the changes be?
There's a huge website/document on what the SNP proposes, should they form the first government.

Some of it will depend on post referendum negotiations with Westminster, though, notably the currency issue. The SNP wants a Sterling Zone, at least initially. That is SNP policy, though, and not necessarily what shape independence would take.

This is all discussed in some detail on the other thread.
 
Go on, tell us why you think both.

Because Scotland is economically dependent on the rest of the UK: it's by far its biggest export market, as it were. It does very well out of the Barnett formula and - like everywhere else in Britain - is effectively subsidised by the London economy. It may have financial services and high tech industries but the investment in these is based on Scotland being part of the UK, the only genuinely independent industry you have is the oil stuff in Aberdeen which will decline when North Sea oil runs out. If you leave the UK but keep the pound you are vulnerable to a Euro-style monetary policy crisis - the same applies of course if you join the Euro. If you invent your own currency then you are at the mercy of the international money markets, which may not trust the groat.

Why are we better off without you? As I said, it's a subsidised satrapy which doesn't provide much value to the UK as a whole. However I suppose you're electorally useful as you tend to distrust mad libertarian parties and send down a good chunk of Labour MPs. So I suppose I'd be sad if you left.
 
Anthony at YouGov starting to pick through the new Scots polling sees something unusual with the poll response from the young. Big polling blooper or real change of sentiment?

...the swing since September is strongly concentrated amongst young people. Amongst over 45s there’s no change, amongst people aged 25-44 support for YES is up 6 points, amongst under 25s it’s up 33 points (!). That rings a few alarm bells, but as ever, one shouldn’t read too much into very small subsamples – it could mean ICM had a weird sample that gave them a weird results, or that they had a weird group of under 25s but the overall sample was fine, or that there genuinely is a big shift towards YES amongst younger voters. We shall see.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8601
 
Yes, the fact that the swing is entirely amongst the under 44s is odd - and as Curtice points out, they had to count each 16-24 year old as two participants as they simply couldn't get enough of that age group to take part, so a small swing here would be magnified.
 
If the polling is to be trusted, then it's going to be a pretty close vote. That means as near as makes no difference half the Scottish people will end up with a situation they didn't want. Which half of Scotland ends up disappointed will depend on the floating voters, ie the people who care the least.

Democracy is shit. Or the thing we have that passes for it anyway.
 
Because Scotland is economically dependent on the rest of the UK: it's by far its biggest export market, as it were. It does very well out of the Barnett formula and - like everywhere else in Britain - is effectively subsidised by the London economy. It may have financial services and high tech industries but the investment in these is based on Scotland being part of the UK, the only genuinely independent industry you have is the oil stuff in Aberdeen which will decline when North Sea oil runs out. If you leave the UK but keep the pound you are vulnerable to a Euro-style monetary policy crisis - the same applies of course if you join the Euro. If you invent your own currency then you are at the mercy of the international money markets, which may not trust the groat.

Why are we better off without you? As I said, it's a subsidised satrapy which doesn't provide much value to the UK as a whole. However I suppose you're electorally useful as you tend to distrust mad libertarian parties and send down a good chunk of Labour MPs. So I suppose I'd be sad if you left.

Let us suppose for the moment that you are right, and Scotland is in receipt of a net subsidy from London (your claim is not that it is from the rest of the UK, but from London) – you are not right (See for example: 1., 2.), but let us for a moment suppose you are – what do you think is the fundamental difference between Scotland, a country you imply uniquely incapable of providing an economy to sustain its populace, unlike the other countries its size and smaller? Why is Scotland incapable of making a go of it?

The truth is that if there is indeed a net subsidy from London – if, mark you – then this is a state of affairs Scotland finds itself in as part of the Union. The Scotland we see today is a Scotland that is part of the UK, a product of 300 years of Union. Why then do you not decry the Union, rather than insisting Scotland is incapable of independence? The Union is clearly failing Scotland if it has reduced it to such a level of dependency, unlike the other independent countries its size and smaller.

This line that Scotland is simply not able to support itself is a line that Better Together repeatedly deploys, and even many Unionists feel it is not credible or useful.

A far better tack is the point made some years ago now by Gordon Brown, that Britons together can be proud, for example, of their role in creating the National Health Service. It’s an appeal to intra-British solidarity; those post-war institutions - wrought by the struggles of the ordinary people of these islands - are indeed achievements we should value.

Except, of course, many (north and south of the Border) will rightly say that the government in Westminster is now intent on dismantling that very Health Service. There, one might say, following Gordon Brown’s logic, goes one more reason for maintaining the Union.

As an aside, I’ve seen the figures suggesting “London” subsidises the rest of the UK. They are, though, very crude figures. They are based on the tax take per head. What they do not take into account are the jobs and infrastructure in London that the UK tax payer pays for: the jobs in Whitehall, including rafts of high paid mandarins; bodies with huge staff details in London, such as the Cabinet Office, Crown Prosecution Service, Department for Communities and Local Government, Department for Culture, Media and Sport, Department of Energy and Climate Change, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs, Her Majesty's Treasury, Ministry of Justice, UK Statistics Authority, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, boundary commission of England, Home Office, Ministry of Defence, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Department for Work and Pensions, Department of Health, Department for Transport, Department for Education, department for Culture, Media and Sport, DFID, Attorney General's Office, Treasury Solicitors, Government Equalities Office, The Supreme Court. Those employees pay tax, yes, but their wages and departments are paid for by the whole of the UK.

That's without the considerable BBC presence still in London, the Unions with headquarters in London, the charities and NGOs with headquarters in London and so on.

What about the infrastructure that serves London? The Olympic stadia and infrastructure? The rail networks feeding London? The Channel tunnel? The Millennium Dome? And what food does London produce? And so on.

London does not subsidise the UK, it is an integral part of it. It is indivisible from it, whether that be the UK as it is today, or a possible future UK without Scotland. London could not go it alone. Scotland could.

1. http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/11/scotland-12288-union-public

2. http://newsnetscotland.com/index.ph...conomist-says-scotland-subsidising-rest-of-uk
 
Two referendum polls today:-

Survation’s first referendum poll in the Mail on Sunday had topline figures of:-

YES 32%, NO 52% and don’t know 16%,

very similar to the recent YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls. Given it’s Survation’s first Scottish referendum poll we obviously don’t have any changes from last time.

More interesting are the figures from TNS-BMRB which have:-

YES on 29% (up 2 points since December), NO on 41% (unchanged).

The change is small in isolation, but looking at the broader trend from TNS there does appear to be a gradual increase in Yes support. In August they has Yes on 25%, October on 25%, November 26%, December 27%, now 29%.

Usual source.​
 
Two more Scots polls, one post Osborne's intervention...

Firstly, the pre-Osborne methodology...
The figures in TNS’s poll are:-

YES 29%, NO 42%, 29% don’t know – entirely unchanged from their previous poll in mid-January.

Given the fieldwork was conducted prior to Osborne’s intervention though, this clearly doesn’t answer the question.

and...the more interesting one (albeit with a methodological caveat...)..

...a new Survation poll in the Daily Mail. This was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, so after Osborne’s intervention and at the time Alex Salmond was actively responding. Topline figures there are:_

YES 38%, NO 47%, Don’t know 16%.

Survation’s previous poll was showing YES on 32%, NO on 52%, so prima facie it looks as though there has been a significant shift towards YES.
 
Getting closer....

ICM/Scotland on Sunday poll numbers....

"No" 42% (-4), "Yes" 39% (nc), DN/WNV 19% (+4).

(Exc DN/WNV = "No" 52% & "Yes" 48%)

Front page...

BloiP5YIgAEszfB_zps0d0f582f.jpg


e2a :
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
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Of those surveyed in ICM #ImdyRef who were born in Scotland there's a 2% lead for YES. English born voters split 58-28 to NO

5:14 AM - 20 Apr 2014
 
...and now Anthony @ YouGov has put up the Survation poll...

The second poll for Survation has topline figures of:-


YES 38%(+1), NO 46%(-1). Without don’t knows the YES vote is at 45%.

This is a slight move towards YES since Survation’s previous poll a week and a half ago, but looking more widely it’s more of a “no change” poll, Survation also showed YES on 45% in March and February.
 
Good, I want a no vote! but there is a lot of time to go till the actual vote.
Oh, come on...you've been reading/posting about polling long enough not to fall into that trap, haven't you?

This from YG might help....

ICM in the Scotland on Sunday have figures of YES 34%(-5), NO 46%(+4). This looks like a sudden big shift to NO, but I suspect a lot of that is a reversion to the mean. ICM’s last Scottish poll was the one showing the NO lead shrinking to just 3 points… I suspect that one was just a bit of an outlier and this is a return to normality.

and then, for good measure....

My view is that the best way of seeing what is happening is still the rather laborious and imprecise process of looking at trends in individual pollsters:

Taking them one at a time, and excluding don’t knows so they are comparable,

ICM
had YES on 40% last September, then 46% in January, then 43% in February, 46% in March, 48% in April… now 43%. ICM have been more erratic than other companies (and have messed about with their methods more) so it’s quite difficult to differentiate trend from volatility or method change.

Ipsos MORI we had YES on 34% last September, 37% in December, 36% in February. We haven’t had anything since.

Survation we had YES on 38% in January, then after a methodological change they’ve been steady showing YES on a consistent 44% or 45%.

TNS-BMRB had YES on 36% in October, 38% in November, 40% in December & January, 41% in Feb, 40% in March, 41% in April, 42% now.

YouGov appears to show a similar steady but slow trend – 38% in September, 39% in Dec/ Jan, 40% in February, 42% in March and April.

Panelbase have consistently shown better scores for YES 44% in September, 45% in October and November, 43% and 44% in February. 47% in polls in March and April, 46% today.

My perception is still that there was a tightening in the polls at the tail end of last year after the white paper, and a very slow trend towards YES since then. The trend may well have slowed or stopped completely in recent weeks, but the single ICM poll or the normal variation in Panelbase is not enough to conclude it has reversed.
 
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