The next coalition government

[brogdale]

So we've now seen the current LD leadership intervene directly into the tory leadership contest. Clearly the orange bookers have (used the loon Baker) to undermine May's credibility as a possible leader able to negotiate with the LDs in any future coalition.

So Clegg (and obviously Alexander) have clearly set out their stall in support of Osborne to succeed from 'two-time loser' Cameron. I suspect that they are assuming that on about 32% of the popular vote, Osborne will only have between 280 and 290 seats. If the LDs themselves can drag their vote just into double figures they could hang on to 25 to 30 of their seats, giving the new coalition up to 320 seats. Maybe not big enough for outright majority, but pinning their hopes on a weak Lab performance of, say, 30 to 31%, and the fact that the SNP won't work with them...they could govern.

I wonder whether Alexander has already cut the deal with Osborne?

 

[brogdale]

Oh yeah....and not forgetting the venal little slug Farron...who's in the mix...of course...

Tim Farron, the Lib Dem president, was also on the Today programme this morning talking about Norman Baker’s resignation. He said Theresa May was at fault for not being willing to compromise with the Lib Dems.

I’m not here to lay into Theresa May, but...

 

[marty21]

I think SNP would work with Labour, if they win 30+ seats as could happen, it'll put them in a very strong position to get Labour to do their bidding in Scotland

 

[brogdale]

I think SNP would work with Labour, if they win 30+ seats as could happen, it'll put them in a very strong position to get Labour to do their bidding in Scotland

But doesn't it help the nationalist's narrative to keep a tory government in England(Westminster) governing as colonial masters?

 

[SpookyFrank]

So we've now seen the current LD leadership intervene directly into the tory leadership contest. Clearly the orange bookers have (used the loon Baker) to undermine May's credibility as a possible leader able to negotiate with the LDs in any future coalition.

So Clegg (and obviously Alexander) have clearly set out their stall in support of Osborne to succeed from 'two-time loser' Cameron. I suspect that they are assuming that on about 32% of the popular vote, Osborne will only have between 280 and 290 seats. If the LDs themselves can drag their vote just into double figures they could hang on to 25 to 30 of their seats, giving the new coalition up to 320 seats. Maybe not big enough for outright majority, but pinning their hopes on a weak Lab performance of, say, 30 to 31%, and the fact that the SNP won't work with them...they could govern.

I wonder whether Alexander has already cut the deal with Osborne?

You're expecting another tory lib-dem coalition next time round then? With Cameron falling on his sword immediately afterwards?

 

[marty21]

But doesn't it help the nationalist's narrative to keep a tory government in England(Westminster) governing as colonial masters?

I can't see the Tories getting more seats, they are likely to lose a fair few - possibly a couple to UKIP (Although I'm not convinced they will do well in a General Election when the turnouts are a lot higher) and they will lose seats because they are the governing party and haven't been a success

 

[SpookyFrank]

But doesn't it help the nationalist's narrative to keep a tory government in England(Westminster) governing as colonial masters?

It doesn't seem to have helped that much. I think with another referendum not on the cards for the forseeable future the SNP is probably going to be more interested in getting on with their job rather than playing some silly-bugger long game which would most likely harm Scotland.

e2a: The narrative thing definitely won't work if people know that the SNP have actively helped the tories remain in power.

 

[brogdale]

You're expecting another tory lib-dem coalition next time round then? With Cameron falling on his sword immediately afterwards?

I think it's a credible scenario tbh, given the flux and trends in current polling. I'm increasingly thinking that the SNP have the capability to sink NuLab's chances of establishing a workable majority.

 

[brogdale]

I can't see the Tories getting more seats, they are likely to lose a fair few - possibly a couple to UKIP (Although I'm not convinced they will do well in a General Election when the turnouts are a lot higher) and they will lose seats because they are the governing party and haven't been a success

Yeah, but I speculated on 280 to 290 above, down from their 307 in 2010.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I think it's a credible scenario tbh, given the flux and trends in current polling. I'm increasingly thinking that the SNP have the capability to sink NuLab's chances of establishing a workable majority.

Yes but if they do that then the Scottish people will know that they let the tories in. As part of a government the SNP could demand all sorts of crowd-pleasing stuff providing they don't sell out like Clegg's mob did so wholeheartedly.

 

[brogdale]

Yeah, but I speculated on 280 to 290 above, down from their 307 in 2010.

FWIW...here's where we are atm...

Party Seats
Conservative 303
Labour 257
Liberal Democrat 56
Democratic Unionist 8
Scottish National 6
Sinn Fein 5
Independent 3
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Alliance 1
Green 1
Respect 1
Speaker 1
UK Independence Party 1
Vacant 1
Total number of seats 650
Current working Government Majority 76

 

[brogdale]

Yes but if they do that then the Scottish people will know that they let the tories in. As part of a government the SNP could demand all sorts of crowd-pleasing stuff providing they don't sell out like Clegg's mob did so wholeheartedly.

So fight them tooth and nail in Scotland, smash the unionist quasi-tories in their heartland...and then prop them up as a government in Westminster?

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think it's a credible scenario tbh, given the flux and trends in current polling. I'm increasingly thinking that the SNP have the capability to sink NuLab's chances of establishing a workable majority.

It's not totally impossible. But if Cameron managed to hold on to enough seats for another Tory/Lib coalition I think he'd probably stay as PM, surely?

Think the most important question remains whether Labour can get an outright majority or not...

 

[Lo Siento.]

The problem is a little different for the SNP. Seeing as they don't actually aspire to govern in Westminster, there's little point in them joining a coalition government. So they'll find it easier just to prop up a minority government in exchange for further devolution...

 

[SpackleFrog]

So fight them tooth and nail in Scotland, smash the unionist quasi-tories in their heartland...and then prop them up as a government in Westminster?

If they can get a commitment to another Indy ref, with control over the terms etc, yeah, probably.

 

[brogdale]

If they can get a commitment to another Indy ref, with control over the terms etc, yeah, probably.

Labour? Give them another ref?

 

[Lo Siento.]

Of course, temporarily propping up a coalition government is also what the Lib Dems should've done...

 

[SpookyFrank]

So fight them tooth and nail in Scotland, smash the unionist quasi-tories in their heartland...and then prop them up as a government in Westminster?

The alternative would be rather worse for them though.

 

[Lo Siento.]

If they can get a commitment to another Indy ref, with control over the terms etc, yeah, probably.

I don't think they'll get another ref out of anyone, and by the look of the last polls I saw on the subject they'd be ill advised to ask for one. Better off just rinsing that promise for further powers for whatever they can and pencilling in another ref for 2025.

 

[brogdale]

The alternative would be rather worse for them though.

Would it? A party committed to EVEL fits their narrative better, surely?

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't think they'll get another ref out of anyone, and by the look of the last polls I saw on the subject they'd be ill advised to ask for one. Better off just rinsing that promise for further powers for whatever they can and pencilling in another ref for 2025.

Maybe so, but even control over devolution proposals would be tempting to them...

 

[marty21]

If they can get a commitment to another Indy ref, with control over the terms etc, yeah, probably.

I think they'd need a committment to support independence rather than just give them a referendum

 

[belboid]

the SNP will be the third biggest party, with 30-40 seats, mostly at Labours expense. They will absolutely not go into coalition with the tories, not being as stupid as the Libscum (if only because they've watched the last few years with a big smirk on their faces). The rise of the SNP will also hit the libs badly, as what seats they may have held with a Labour revival are still likely to fall to the nats. they'll be lucky to keep two seats. They just wont have enough MP's to be a meaningful coalition partner.

The SNP will offer Labour a deal - another vote, with devo max as a specific option, and a coalition; or a weaker deal for Scotland and a co-operation pact, but no coalition. You know, the kind of thing the Libs should have offered to the Tories were they not imbeciles.

 

[butchersapron]

Quite difficult to tell if people are suggesting the SNP would prop up/join a tory govt in westminster. If they did they would immediately lose all those newly won and not yet solid labour voters who've switched to them in the short period since the lost referendum - they'd effectively a) prop up labour in scotland further down the road b) set a limit on just how far they themselves can go in that longer term and cut their own throats in the short-medium term. I can't believe that they would be that stupid - esp not with the lib-dem example staring them in the face.

 

[marty21]

the SNP will be the third biggest party, with 30-40 seats, mostly at Labours expense. They will absolutely not go into coalition with the tories, not being as stupid as the Libscum (if only because they've watched the last few years with a big smirk on their faces). The rise of the SNP will also hit the libs badly, as what seats they may have held with a Labour revival are still likely to fall to the nats. they'll be lucky to keep two seats. They just wont have enough MP's to be a meaningful coalition partner.

The SNP will offer Labour a deal - another vote, with devo max as a specific option, and a coalition; or a weaker deal for Scotland and a co-operation pact, but no coalition. You know, the kind of thing the Libs should have offered to the Tories were they not imbeciles.

The Tories did an excellent job of stitching the LibDems up

 

[butchersapron]

The Tories did an excellent job if stitching the LibDems up

The lib-dem did as well too. It was a joint effort. Who says coalitions don't work. For one party anyway.

 

[brogdale]

the SNP will be the third biggest party

I'm not totally convinced by that. In order for that to happen the highest SNP and lowest LD polling would have to actually transpire at the ballot box.

I'd speculate that the LDs will actually hold onto around 25 to 30 of their seats, and that the nationalists will add 20 odd to their present tally...giving them roughly similar weight at Westminster.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think they'd need a committment to support independence rather than just give them a referendum

Nah. 2-3 years of Labour austerity after 5 years of Tory austerity and they won't need shit from Westminster except a referendum.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The lib-dem did as well too. It was a joint effort. Who says coalitions don't work. For one party anyway.

Are coalition govts a zero sum game in Britain? Maybe they are...

 

[marty21]

Nah. 2-3 years of Labour austerity after 5 years of Tory austerity and they won't need shit from Westminster except a referendum.

they can afford to be very demanding of which ever party courts them