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The Dominic Cummings file

Cummings said Hancock lied consistently to cabinet and public. He doesn't say which ones though? (Apart from whenever he opens his mouth of course).

I'd imagine Hancock will say something along the lines of "I'm not going to grace the rumours being spread by that man with a replay." Followed by "I've already answered that question and I'm now off to save more lives".
 
Cummings said Hancock lied consistently to cabinet and public. He doesn't say which ones though? (Apart from whenever he opens his mouth of course).

I'd imagine Hancock will say something along the lines of "I'm not going to grace the rumours being spread by that man with a replay." Followed by "I've already answered that question and I'm now off to save more lives".
 
Interesting timing in this yesterday : Hillsborough trial: Men acquitted as judge rules no case to answer

Mr Denton, Mr Foster and Mr Metcalf were accused of trying to minimise the blame placed on South Yorkshire Police in the aftermath of the disaster by altering statements.
However, the judge said the statements had been prepared for the public inquiry chaired by Lord Taylor in 1990.
He said this was not a statutory inquiry and therefore not considered "a court of law", so it was not a "course of public justice" which could be perverted.
Prosecutor Sarah Whitehouse QC said they would not seek leave to appeal against the judge's decision.
 
I remember seeing a very early briefing with Hancock describing how they were going to do intermittent lockdowns to ensure that people got infected for herd immunity but to manage it in waves so the NHS didn't get overwhelmed. I don't have proof, but I swear I did not imagine this. I have a very good memory for certain things and did not imagine it early on. There were graphs about how many seriously ill people the NHS could cope with at any one time and everything (and the approach was never about preventing people getting ill, just how many needing intensive care/ventilators/oxygen could be coped with at any particular time so it didn't overwhelm the NHS)

Funny you should mention that. First a little background:

There were only a few days in March where they explicitly talked about herd immunity, in the contect of getting it all out of the way with a single wave. As part of explaining the original plan A, and then that plan went down badly and was incompatible with reality so they pulled the plug on it within days. And part of pulling the plug involved publicly denying that herd immunity was ever part of the plan. Hancock was one of the first to be sent out to deliver that message.

The next stage was messy because plan B was botched together over the next week+. And they tried to make it sound like it wasnt a giant u-turn, so aspects of the original language and explanations were retained and then only moved away from in stages. Due to the previous shitstorm its unlikely they used the term herd immunity at that stage, but they may still have spoken about immunity more vaguely, and the need to avoid a winter wave.

Its also certainly true that 'turning measures on and off repeatedly' was on their mind for plan B, because the likes of Imperial College did subsequently explore that possibility when looking at alternative options, talking about having trigger points for reactivating measures as infections rose, and a long cycle of mini-waves. This wasnt really considered desirable for all sorts of reasons including economic ones, so over time we ended up with all the local restrictions and pinning hopes on mass testing etc etc.

Anyway the reason I am explaining this now is to do with the fact that I think something has not really been drawn attention to when it comes to the 'plan B whiteboard photo' that Cummings tweeted the other day.

Screenshot 2021-05-27 at 11.31.49.png

So two of the curves in that graph are to do with the original thinking - the extremely high peak wave if nothing was done, and the somewhat 'pushed down and stretched out' peak that they were aiming for with original herd immunity plan. And then there is the original possible plan B, the wiggly line where we end up in a cycle of mini waves that dont exceed NHS etc capacity.

But whats this wording attached to the plan B wiggly line? Oh look, it says 'Roughly same number infected but no collapse'. Well roughly same number infected implies same expectations of herd immunity! So attempts to attach a desire for herd immunity as the endgame were not just a feature of plan A, but also at least this initial stab at plan B!

Screenshot 2021-05-27 at 11.32.04.png
 
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Well, sadly, Hancock got away with very little squirming, bating away difficult questions with the predictable mentions of the vaccination success story.
 
But the mass testing never happened either, did it.

It did but it was very slow in all sorts of different senses, and could not meet demand by September when infection levels hit a dangerous tipping point.

In my book the biggest issue ultimately with the 'avoid second wave via testing' was something I kept telling a couple of people on this forum who pinned all their hopes on test & trace and thought we could avoid future lockdowns as a result. Testing systems only help manage the overall pandemic if authorities are prepared to act on the suveillance data that testing provides! ie they do not offer everything needed to keep the virus under control on their own, they tell you when you need to act more strongly, impose lockdowns, circuit breakers etc. We had with the Johnson government a stubborn load of shit that was not prepared to act in September when the results of testing proved that the resurgence was well under way and that urgent action was required. For all its faults and limitations the test system did give us a better view of the state of infections, but the opportunity to act on that was utterly squandered.
 
Spot on. Cummings performance won’t bring Johnson down, but it’s confirmed and added to a narrative that isn’t going away. As the understandable relief about the vaccine and life ‘returning to normal’ subsides the longer term consequences for the economy and health will sharpen. For starters there are 150,000 people who lost a loved one who’ll continue to be asking a simple question: why?

I think it's the families of the 150,000 people who died who will be asking the question why? and that's a whole load more people...
It's 127,750 people that have died, not 150,000, as of this morning and as reported by the BBC.
 
The latest ONS number I have is 153,093 which covers deaths by date of death up to mid May.

The actual number will be higher still, since death certificates are also expected to miss some deaths, and thats why analysis of excess mortality forms part of how the mainstream experts on such subjects try to analyse total burden in pandemics and epidemics.
 
It's 127,750 people that have died, not 150,000, as of this morning and as reported by the BBC.

The 127,748 figure is the total of daily reported deaths after testing positive, the 152,068 figure is the number reported with covid on their death certificates, hence you see both figures getting quoted.

Excess deaths have been lower than both those figures, the last UK figure I saw reported was about 120k, I can only find the recent recent figures for England & Wales, so Scotland & NI would increase that.

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 14 May 2021 was 737,168 in England and Wales. Of the deaths registered by 14 May 2021, 139,790 (19.0%) mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. During this period, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 112,834 deaths.

 
The latest ONS number I have is 153,093 which covers deaths by date of death up to mid May.

The actual number will be higher still, since death certificates are also expected to miss some deaths, and thats why analysis of excess mortality forms part of how the mainstream experts on such subjects try to analyse total burden in pandemics and epidemics.
not to mention the many thousands of people who will go through something awful because they weren't able to get eg early cancer diagnoses
 
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