The Dominic Cummings file

[Pickman's model]

It's 127,750 people that have died, not 150,000, as of this morning and as reported by the BBC.

about twice the number of people killed in the uk by enemy action between 1939 and 1945

 

[elbows]

Excess deaths have been lower than both those figures, the last UK figure I saw reported was about 120k, I can only find the recent recent figures for England & Wales, so Scotland & NI would increase that.

Excess deaths were lower than normal for various lengthy periods, due to a combination of lockdowns preventing normal seasonal flu, less deaths from other causes for all manner of reasons including lower levels of economic activity (start of recessions generally lead to less deaths than boom times) and the fact that some of the people who died of Covid earlier would otherwise have died later.

So the proper analysis of overall UK total will involve a somewhat complicated mix of the different figures. eg it is entirely appropriate to use excess deaths during the first wave, when testing was exceedingly limited, and death certificate deaths for other periods. I'm not going to attempt my amateur version of that again right now, but last time I did it wasnt very hard to get a UK total that was well past 160,000.

 

[Jay Park]

Saw this last night and not going to lie its just circling in my head and I'll never not find it funny.

fucking Batman here

 

[Jay Park]

Cummings said Hancock lied consistently to cabinet and public. He doesn't say which ones though? (Apart from whenever he opens his mouth of course).

I'd imagine Hancock will say something along the lines of "I'm not going to grace the rumours being spread by that man with a replay." Followed by "I've already answered that question and I'm now off to save more lives".

to the Batmobile

 

[equationgirl]

It's fucking disgraceful whatever the number is.

 

[dessiato]

I've been told, again, that everything would be worse under Corbyn. My response that we don't know that, because he didn't get in, is, I'm told, ridiculous.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've been told, again, that everything would be worse under Corbyn. My response that we don't know that, because he didn't get in, is, I'm told, ridiculous.

my response would be at least when corbyn ruined xmas it was just for a few labour mps who thought they'd be reshuffled. when johnson ruined xmas it was because gran and grandad were dead and the country was in lockdown after he'd fucked things up earlier in the autumn. say what you want about corbyn but he hasn't the blood of thousands on his hands.

 

[ska invita]

The Sun are basically calling Cummings Captain Hindsight... Effective line, proven

 

[chilango]

Corbyn wouldn't have got much past March before being removed

 

[brogdale]

I've been told, again, that everything would be worse under Corbyn. My response that we don't know that, because he didn't get in, is, I'm told, ridiculous.

What sort of dullards are telling you this?
& why are you listening?

 

[equationgirl]

The Sun are basically calling Cummings Captain Hindsight... Effective line, proven

I quite like that. Has a certain ring to it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Excess deaths were lower than normal for various lengthy periods, due to a combination of lockdowns preventing normal seasonal flu, less deaths from other causes for all manner of reasons including lower levels of economic activity (start of recessions generally lead to less deaths than boom times) and the fact that some of the people who died of Covid earlier would otherwise have died later.

So the proper analysis of overall UK total will involve a somewhat complicated mix of the different figures. eg it is entirely appropriate to use excess deaths during the first wave, when testing was exceedingly limited, and death certificate deaths for other periods. I'm not going to attempt my amateur version of that again right now, but last time I did it wasnt very hard to get a UK total that was well past 160,000.

Indeed, and as you say excess deaths would also be kept low, because a number of people dying from covid would have died during this period anyway, but they still need counting as covid deaths, even if their lives were shorten by only by a matter of days, let alone weeks or months.

 

[equationgirl]

BBC reporting Hancock as saying 'we've always been straight with people'. I almost died laughing at that brazen whopper, he wouldn't know straight if he was handed a ruler.

Liar liar pants en flambe.

 

[ska invita]

I quite like that. Has a certain ring to it.

Its designed to discredit Cummings testimony, just as it discredits Starmers pathetic attempts to scrutinise

 

[maomao]

I've been told, again, that everything would be worse under Corbyn. My response that we don't know that, because he didn't get in, is, I'm told, ridiculous.

It quite possibly would have been worse under Corbyn; the media would have been in full revolt well before the pandemic hit and there's nothing about the PLP to suggest that they're actually more competent in any way. There might have been less blatant corruption but there may have been completely different kinds of mistakes; maybe we would have had the Woodcraft Folk in charge of testing rather than PWC with equally disastrous results.

 

[dessiato]

What sort of dullards are telling you this?
& why are you listening?

My goddaughter and her partner. I'm listening because they're the ones who organise family Zoom so I can speak to my mother.

 

[elbows]

Indeed, and as you say excess deaths would also be kept low, because a number of people dying from covid would have died during this period anyway, but they still need counting as covid deaths, even if their lives were shorten by only by a matter of days, let alone weeks or months.

Yes and I really hated the people who tried to diminish pandemic deaths using that sort of thing. I only mention it because I cannot fairly describe why excess deaths were lower during other periods without including that reason.

I've said on other threads in the past that I approve of using a particular measure when evaluating pandemic burden: QALYs lost. (description stolen from wikipedia: The quality-adjusted life year or quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is a generic measure of disease burden, including both the quality and the quantity of life lived. It is used in economic evaluation to assess the value of medical interventions. One QALY equates to one year in perfect health.)

 

[equationgirl]

I think Cummings discredited his own testimony to be honest ska invita .

 

[elbows]

Another thing that was not surprising about his testimony was the number of women who did their bit to make the pandemic response better at certain key moments or on an ongoing basis. Its a somewhat crude anaylsis but we've seen signs of this elsewhere when its come to the most obvious pandemic success stories*

* excluding Dido Harding, who is obviously not a success story. edit - and Jenny Harries, how could I forget to include her in the hall of shame.

 

[MrCurry]

In a startling revelation today, the British people were shocked to discover their Prime Minister is an idiot and doesn't really know what he's doing

This is the heart of the problem really, isn’t it? Johnson is essentially untouchable by allegations of incompetence since that’s the image he has profited from promoting for himself for many years.

 

[Pickman's model]

The Sun are basically calling Cummings Captain Hindsight... Effective line, proven

everyone has 20:20 hindsight. everyone. except for boris johnson.

 

[Pickman's model]

This is the heart of the problem really, isn’t it? Johnson is essentially untouchable by allegations of incompetence since that’s the image he has profited from promoting for himself for many years.

fucking poundland auric goldfinger

 

[two sheds]

It quite possibly would have been worse under Corbyn; the media would have been in full revolt well before the pandemic hit and there's nothing about the PLP to suggest that they're actually more competent in any way.

yep

There might have been less blatant corruption but there may have been completely different kinds of mistakes; maybe we would have had the Woodcraft Folk in charge of testing rather than PWC with equally disastrous results.

What would Corbyn have done though? As you say there'd be the general incompetence but I think he'd have done some useful things like throwing money at the NHS and having it do all the things Johnson and his dodgy mates siphoned off so probably make huge savings. You'd hope he'd have given the nurses more than one fucking percent. Quantitative easing and try to stop offshore tax dodging and giving the money to local authorities and people directly? You'd hope renationalize buses and railways at least at knock-down prices.

Yep somewhat hopeful and he might have done none of that, but it's the sort of thing that was in the manifesto and he'd have faced a revolt by the members if he'd have sat and done bugger all. But more likely of course the markets would crash and the pound would take a dive and labour right would stage a revolt and he'd be gone before doing any of it.

 

[prunus]

fucking poundland auric goldfinger

Cacric Shitfinger

 

[brogdale]

I quite like that. Has a certain ring to it.

Isn't that what blustercunt calls Starmer?

 

[maomao]

Isn't that what blustercunt calls Starmer?

It's a South Park reference.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Isn't that what blustercunt calls Starmer?

Yes, ‘Captain Hindsight’. Nobody can possibly disagree with Johnson without the benefit of it basically.

 

[Spandex]

I quite like that. Has a certain ring to it.

The 'Captain Hindsight' label is a catchy soundbite that, like all the best soundbites, summarises a lot in an easily memorable phrase.

It's used by Johnson to support the idea that last year he was faced with an unprecedented crisis, did his best in difficult circumstances and no one else could've done any better. Any criticism of what he did or didn't do is just hindsight from grumblers and moaners. That's likely to be his defence going into next year's Covid enquiry, so he wants the idea well established in the public mind before then.

It is, of course, a lie. At every step of the way there's been people shouting at him what he should be doing, whilst he ignored them all, blundering on, focused on the economy, leaving a trail of tens of thousands dead in his wake.

 

[steveo87]

In two weeks, Hancock will explain the Dancing Baby meme.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

The 'Captain Hindsight' label is a catchy soundbite that, like all the best soundbites, summarises a lot in an easily memorable phrase.

It's used by Johnson to support the idea that last year he was faced with an unprecedented crisis, did his best in difficult circumstances and no one else could've done any better. Any criticism of what he did or didn't do is just hindsight from grumblers and moaners. That's likely to be his defence going into next year's Covid enquiry, so he wants the idea well established in the public mind before then.

It is, of course, a lie. At every step of the way there's been people shouting at him what he should be doing, whilst he ignored them all, blundering on, focused on the economy, leaving a trail of tens of thousands dead in his wake.

Even if you take the most charitable interpretation possible (and I wouldn't), that's really only going to apply to the early stages isn't it. It doesn't even begin to explain why he was still making the exact same fuckups nine months later.