The Brexit process

[gosub]

There are measurables in there - the massive difference in expectations between leave voters and remain voters as to the damage brexit might do to the economy. One or other group is going to be shown to be right. Where does that leave the decision? If most of those who voted out turn out to have been wrong about the effect of brexit on the UK economy, who is held responsible for the damage? That's one of the inherent contradictions of the situation as it is now - brexit must happen even if it causes various kinds of damage to the UK, even if those doing it don't think it's the right thing to do, even if most of those who voted for it were mistaken or unrealistic in their beliefs about what it would actually mean. We have this one poll, fixed in time, that must be obeyed no matter what.

Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety

 

[ska invita]

So, did Nissan panic May into some knee-jerk corporate welfare, and/or has she signalled (inadvertently?) her negotiation objectives?

I was talking with someone this weekend who's convinced that this Nissan thing is one sign amongst others (they also reckon theres massive backroom infighting amongst the tory cabinet who are predominantly in favour of no brexit) that hard brexit is not going to happen, and the reality will be softer than soft, and slowly softened over the course of time to deflate the balloon gently. This person who reckons this does have his ear to the ground somewhat but god knows how much truth there is in that. Its all speculation ultimately, but the Nissan thing is pretty mysterious and the so called confession of the reality of it today didnt really tell us anything.

Not sure if its worth posting this post ,considering its so fact-free, but I found it interesting as Ive become convinced by the narrative of hard brexit thats being presented of late - it could well be massively watered down yet ,and just being presented right now to appease at this point in time. Certainly we now know Mays true feelings on it...(thanks to the Goldman Sachs recording)

 

[agricola]

I was talking with someone this weekend who's convinced that this Nissan thing is one sign amongst others (they also reckon theres massive backroom infighting amongst the tory cabinet who are predominantly in favour of no brexit) that hard brexit is not going to happen, and the reality will be softer than soft, and slowly softened over the course of time to deflate the balloon gently. This person who reckons this does have his ear to the ground somewhat but god knows how much truth there is in that. Its all speculation ultimately, but the Nissan thing is pretty mysterious and the so called confession of the reality of it today didnt really tell us anything.

Not sure if its worth posting this post ,considering its so fact-free, but I found it interesting as Ive become convinced by the narrative of hard brexit thats being presented of late - it could well be massively watered down yet ,and just being presented right now to appease at this point in time. Certainly we now know Mays true feelings on it...(thanks to the Goldman Sachs recording)

The deal we will probably end up with will be quite close to what went before; probably the only difference will be that EU workers coming here will probably have more protection than they had previously.

 

[Raheem]

And when the fuck did "ouster" become acceptable

1531, according to the Chambers Dictionary of Etymology.

 

[Raheem]

The deal we will probably end up with will be quite close to what went before; probably the only difference will be that EU workers coming here will probably have more protection than they had previously.

Yes, as night follows day, the whole thing is likely to end up with the UK's relationship to the EU largely the same. But the question is how long that will take and where we will go in the meantime.

 

[redsquirrel]

The referendum result is not a mandate for any particular form of brexit. Specifically, it is not at all a mandate for a 'hard' brexit with the ending of free movement of people. Given that 48 percent voted in a way that implicitly endorsed continuing free movement of people, even if a majority of those who voted leave want some kind of hard brexit, if only 10 percent of leave voters oppose versions of 'hard brexit', that gives a majority against hard brexit.

I'm not talking about "hard brexit", whatever that means, I post I quoted simply mentioned "opposing brexit".

The background to that HP article is the same liberal anti-democratic bullshit that's been flying around the last year, that essentially "we" require guardians to protect us from the people. It's disgusting crap and shows exactly why liberalism is the enemy of every socialist.

 

[isvicthere?]

Assuming for the minute that this is true why is it a bad thing? MPs are supposed (ha ha) to represent their constituents.

Well, it clearly illustrates the corruption of the fptp system, in which a very narrow majority translates into getting on for two thirds of the seats.

 

[andysays]

Well, it clearly illustrates the corruption of the fptp system, in which a very narrow majority translates into getting on for two thirds of the seats.

Not sure that it "shows" any such thing.

You seem to be confusing a GE, where voters choose the candidate who best (supposedly) represents them over the whole range of possible issues, with a referendum where they choose between two either/or options on one particular issue.

There's no reason why the results of one should map on to the results of the other, whichever method of voting (FPTP, PR, etc) is used in a GE.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not talking about "hard brexit", whatever that means, I post I quoted simply mentioned "opposing brexit".

The background to that HP article is the same liberal anti-democratic bullshit that's been flying around the last year, that essentially "we" require guardians to protect us from the people. It's disgusting crap and shows exactly why liberalism is the enemy of every socialist.

If you oppose brexit why not continue saying so? I don't stop opposing a govt just cos it was elected. If what you most oppose is hard brexit then building an alliance against that is what's now important. But if you think the whole thing is misguided and don't say so and why because you're afraid of a kicking, well that's the kind of thinking that gave us new labour.

 

[redsquirrel]

Well, it clearly illustrates the corruption of the fptp system, in which a very narrow majority translates into getting on for two thirds of the seats.

Apart from that is hasn't resulted in any such thing. You are railing about how a possible scenario, that may never happen, is terribly anti-democratic while completely ignoring the fact that at the current time there's an overwhelming majority of MPs who support the EU despite the wishes of the electorate.

 

[gosub]

Yes, as night follows day, the whole thing is likely to end up with the UK's relationship to the EU largely the same. But the question is how long that will take and where we will go in the meantime.

Disagree. Yes the EFTA position is pretty much where we would have ended up as a result of 5 President's report, but...this way we are doing it more on are terms and makes it more likely that other states may follow, which positively impacts on the viability of the position. If we end their on our lonesome its the right place to futher manage our departure.

ETA: If you think of thing as like Noughts and Crosses, what the referendum result has given us over the Associate Membership we were headed for anyway, is now we go first rather than second. EFTA is the centre square.

 

[isvicthere?]

Apart from that is hasn't resulted in any such thing. You are railing about how a possible scenario, that may never happen, is terribly anti-democratic while completely ignoring the fact that at the current time there's an overwhelming majority of MPs who support the EU despite the wishes of the electorate.

"Railing"! Not sure I've ever done that.

 

[butchersapron]

I bet this woman voted leave!

 

[ska invita]

Anyone fancy a punt on what the verdict from the High Court will be today? My money is on that triggering article 50 will have to be voted on by parliament. I say that as the Referendum was nonbinding and all law changes are normally voted on by parliament.
If so there'll be a close vote in parliament which Brexiters should win youd expect....though anything can happen really.

 

[brogdale]

Anyone fancy a punt on what the verdict from the High Court will be today? My money is on that triggering article 50 will have to be voted on by parliament. I say that as the Referendum was nonbinding and all law changes are normally voted on by parliament.
If so there'll be a close vote in parliament which Brexiters should win youd expect....though anything can happen really.

For comedy value, let's hope your hunch is right.

 

[andysays]

Brexit: High Court judges to give legal verdict

...Some of the leading figures in the legal world are involved in the historic case, which is expected to be appealed against to the Supreme Court whatever the verdict...

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

Anyone fancy a punt on what the verdict from the High Court will be today? My money is on that triggering article 50 will have to be voted on by parliament. I say that as the Referendum was nonbinding and all law changes are normally voted on by parliament.
If so there'll be a close vote in parliament which Brexiters should win youd expect....though anything can happen really.

At one point the LCJ said he was "baffled" by the Government's argument... so that's what I'm hoping too. But really have no idea!

 

[brogdale]

Brexit: High Court judges to give legal verdict

Then ECJ?

 

[andysays]

Then ECJ?

I was wondering about that too - that really would have some comedy value - but apparently not

The Supreme Court of the United Kingdom is the supreme court in all matters under English and Welsh law, Northern Ireland law and Scottish civil law. It is the court of last resort and the highest appellate court in the United Kingdom

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

I thought it could technically go from the supreme court to the ECJ? Might be wrong...

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Article 50 author Lord Kerr says Brexit not inevitable - BBC News

The Scottish cross-bench peer who wrote Article 50 - the procedure by which the UK would leave the EU - believed it was "not irrevocable".

In a BBC interview, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard said the UK could choose to stay in the EU even after exit negotiations had begun.

He has also renewed calls for either parliament or the public to be given a chance to stop Brexit.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I thought it could technically go from the supreme court to the ECJ? Might be wrong...

ECJ only deals with matters under the jurisdiction of European law. (I think)

 

[andysays]

ECJ only deals with matters under the jurisdiction of European law. (I think)

According to this, it's even more specific than that

It is the responsibility of the Court of Justice to ensure that the law is observed in the interpretation and application of the Treaties of the European Union and of the provisions laid down by the competent Community institutions

but only time will tell...

 

[butchersapron]

It can go to the ECJ if the judges in a supreme court appeal decide to refer it there for clarification - as the key thing would be what article 50 means by each countries constitutional arrangement - i.e it's eu law.. But consensus seems to be that this is not likely.

 

[butchersapron]

Govt loses.

 

[butchersapron]

Further appeal with legislation ball set rolling now i expect.

 

[brogdale]

Govt loses.

lol

 

[andysays]

It can go to the ECJ if the judges in a supreme court appeal decide to refer it there for clarification - as the key thing would be what article 50 means by each countries constitutional arrangement - i.e it's eu law.. But consensus seems to be that this is not likely.

Have you got a source where I can read more?

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

my colleague is in court right now - gov't lost! pissing myself.

 

[butchersapron]

Have you got a source where I can read more?

Here.