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The 2023 Russian Coup.

ska invita said:
Ive posted two links in the last week, one from Zelenskys adviser Oleksiy Arestovych and the other from a NATO chief of staff Stian Jenssen who both suggested very publicly that an option is for Ukraine to give up territory and get NATO membership in return. Both widley reported
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Neither of those articles say what you said at all.

Do you really mean Ukrainian military when/if Ukraine is a member of NATO (so not at all troops under NATO command) rather than NATO troops from another country enforcing any border? Quite a different meaning, be a bit like saying it was NATO troops in Northern Ireland.
 
Last edited:
editor said:
I feel sorry for the innocent parties who appear to have been murdered. People like the pilot and any flight crew.
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Possibly, but if they were trusted to fly that level of leadership around they’d most likely been with Wagner a fair time,

Even if they hadn’t flown combat missions in other aircraft for the company, which is a possibility, I doubt they were blind to what Wagner does. I’m sure details on the manifest will come out soon.
 
LDC said:
So you really mean Ukrainian military when/if Ukraine is a member of NATO (so not at all troops under NATO command) rather than NATO troops from another country enforcing any border? Quite a different meaning, be a bit like saying it was NATO troops in Northern Ireland.
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And by that logic, NATO forces already enforce 1,600 miles of border with Russia.
 
LDC said:
So you really mean Ukrainian troops when/if Ukraine is a member of NATO (so not at all troops under NATO command) rather than NATO troops from another country enforcing any border? Quite a different meaning.
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I'm not sure what you are getting it. It doesn't really matter who is on border patrol duty. Id imagine on a day to day it would be staffed by Ukrainian state soldiers but there's no reason why NATO countries wouldnt set up bases within Ukraine once NATO membership is bestowed and fighting officially ends. Seems very probable to me in fact, not least as there's going to be a lot of Western business interests to protect. The key thing under a 'land for NATO' deal is if the border is breached by Russia NATO will pile in.

When wars end and borders are negotiated its not based on trust of the other side (i was here responding to the "cant trust Putin/whatever leader" comments so often said on these threads) its based on brute force and presumes distrust.
 
Pickman's model said:
It certainly shows crossing putin is a bad idea
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True, but it also shows that trusting Putin is a bad idea.

As ever in the world of grown ups, very different things can be true at the same time:

It's a terror attack - rather like Salisbury - a ridiculously convoluted and error prone way of killing someone that makes Putin look more Bond Villain than just ruthless and efficient. It'll also instil fear.

It shows that the ridiculously long kill chain was secure from Freinds of Prigozhin - how many people must of been in on it: Putin's office, Minister of Defence's office, Chief of Staff's office, military district, SAM unit, air traffic control, people at the airport (baggage handlers?) to confirm which plane Progozin got on - every one of these links could of had a leak, but didn't.

It shows that Putin can pull off a 'spectacular', but it also shows that Putin feels he needs to - that he's so offended by Prigozhin that a jail cell, or a car bomb, or two bullets to the head aren't enough.

Putin undoubtedly did a clever thing - he used soft words to disarm the rebellion /coup/mutiny/whatever at a time when he was obviously uncertain about the support he had from the military and national guard, and then when he was much more secure, and they thought they were, he pounced, and destroyed Wagner.

But in closing one door, he's opened another - that he can't be trusted.

I think a live Prigozhin, for all Wagner's usefulness for Russian foreign policy, was simply a headache/danger/signal-to-others that Putin couldn't live with - and in his position, I'd agree.

Putin is undoubtedly in a stronger position than he was 8 weeks ago - the other side of that coin is that it's been shown to all that half measures will only get you killed, so....

To a large extent the fragility of Putin's government remains - as Wagner went north the Army didn't get involved, Rosgvardyia took the day off, and the FSB failed to notice the planning. None of those organisations have been shaken up, none have had their leaders replaced. It's possible that the military is going to get a shoeing now Vlad feels secure, but based on past intelligence/security disasters, both FSB and Rosgvardyia will be left alone despite being the biggest culprits.

Perhaps the only certainty this achieves that that we can now solidly put to bed the fantasy that Prigozhins mutiny/coup/whatever was a put up job by Uncle Vlad the Master Strategist....
 
That's very different to saying there's been signs that NATO would guard any DMZ/border between Russia and Ukraine though, saying that is quite a loaded and dramatic statement.
 
LDC said:
That's very different to saying there's been signs that NATO would guard any DMZ/border between Russia and Ukraine though, saying that is quite a loaded and dramatic statement.
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Have to admit Im not sure what is loaded and dramatic about it
Poland military state + border with Belarus is a good example, only postwar Ukraine will be more so
 
kebabking said:
True, but it also shows that trusting Putin is a bad idea.

As ever in the world of grown ups, very different things can be true at the same time:

It's a terror attack - rather like Salisbury - a ridiculously convoluted and error prone way of killing someone that makes Putin look more Bond Villain than just ruthless and efficient. It'll also instil fear.

It shows that the ridiculously long kill chain was secure from Freinds of Prigozhin - how many people must of been in on it: Putin's office, Minister of Defence's office, Chief of Staff's office, military district, SAM unit, air traffic control, people at the airport (baggage handlers?) to confirm which plane Progozin got on - every one of these links could of had a leak, but didn't.

It shows that Putin can pull off a 'spectacular', but it also shows that Putin feels he needs to - that he's so offended by Prigozhin that a jail cell, or a car bomb, or two bullets to the head aren't enough.

Putin undoubtedly did a clever thing - he used soft words to disarm the rebellion /coup/mutiny/whatever at a time when he was obviously uncertain about the support he had from the military and national guard, and then when he was much more secure, and they thought they were, he pounced, and destroyed Wagner.

But in closing one door, he's opened another - that he can't be trusted.

I think a live Prigozhin, for all Wagner's usefulness for Russian foreign policy, was simply a headache/danger/signal-to-others that Putin couldn't live with - and in his position, I'd agree.

Putin is undoubtedly in a stronger position than he was 8 weeks ago - the other side of that coin is that it's been shown to all that half measures will only get you killed, so....

To a large extent the fragility of Putin's government remains - as Wagner went north the Army didn't get involved, Rosgvardyia took the day off, and the FSB failed to notice the planning. None of those organisations have been shaken up, none have had their leaders replaced. It's possible that the military is going to get a shoeing now Vlad feels secure, but based on past intelligence/security disasters, both FSB and Rosgvardyia will be left alone despite being the biggest culprits.

Perhaps the only certainty this achieves that that we can now solidly put to bed the fantasy that Prigozhins mutiny/coup/whatever was a put up job by Uncle Vlad the Master Strategist....
Click to expand...

Err, shouldn’t you be too busy to be posting on here this morning…
 
Well, this is interesting, if it's accurate. Middle-aged Russians drifting towards the internet for the news they suspect TV isn't giving them.
ridl.io

Russia’s broken Television – Riddle Russia

Andrei Pertsev on how and why the main instrument of Russian propaganda is struggling
ridl.io ridl.io

(Still plenty of state propaganda on the interwebs though, once it works out how to find the elders.)
 
RD2003 said:
*There is also speculation that the overthrow of Ceausescu in '89 was far from the spontaneous uprsing it was portrayed as, as opposed to a Soviet-inspired coup, with middle-ranking officials of the Rumanian CP pushed to the fore. Ceausescu, with his resistance to Gorbachev-style reform, had long been regarded as an enemy among those who had maneouvred their way into influence in Moscow. Bucharest was apparently full of Russians in the weeks leading up to the 'uprising.' Naturally there had to be a few thousand deaths to make it appear authentic. This is not to say that most of those on either side didn't believe in what they were fighting for.
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I remember this one - there was video footage of one of the Romanian rebels, in a meeting, saying "Comrades, the National Salvation Front has been functioning for six months." Years later, I was able to ask a couple of Romania colleagues about this one, and they said that in Romania it's one of those stories that comes back into the papers every few years or so, and everyone is fed up with it.

Then there was the incident at the beginning of the Velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia, where a group of Soviet soldiers turned up at the grave of Jan Palach to light some candles in memory of the martyr. I have a hard time seeing Russian squaddies doing something like that on their own initiative.
 
bluescreen said:
Well, this is interesting, if it's accurate. Middle-aged Russians drifting towards the internet for the news they suspect TV isn't giving them.
ridl.io

Russia’s broken Television – Riddle Russia

Andrei Pertsev on how and why the main instrument of Russian propaganda is struggling
ridl.io ridl.io

(Still plenty of state propaganda on the interwebs though, once it works out how to find the elders.)
Click to expand...
However, as the article linked to in post 1371 above outlines, it doesn't necessarily mean that all, or even most of these people are seeking the liberal message.
 
bluescreen said:
:confused:

Of course not. Is there any reason to suppose middle aged Russians in particular would be seeking a liberal message? They probably just want to know what the hell is going on.
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I was just seekling to head off the liberal optimists on here really, and their fond dreams of regime change and a democratic Russia.
 
Idris2002 said:
I remember this one - there was video footage of one of the Romanian rebels, in a meeting, saying "Comrades, the National Salvation Front has been functioning for six months." Years later, I was able to ask a couple of Romania colleagues about this one, and they said that in Romania it's one of those stories that comes back into the papers every few years or so, and everyone is fed up with it.

Then there was the incident at the beginning of the Velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia, where a group of Soviet soldiers turned up at the grave of Jan Palach to light some candles in memory of the martyr. I have a hard time seeing Russian squaddies doing something like that on their own initiative.
Click to expand...
I also vaguely remember reading a novel which leaned heavily on the idea that the SU was behind it all, to the extent of having one of its central characters a NSF member and former minor(ish) Communist Party official hinting heavily at it throughout.

Fucked if I can remember the title or author, however. Seem to remember he was a Yank who spent a lot of time there at the end of the Ceausescu years.
 
Why on earth wouldn't people (particularly Rusdians) dream of regime change and a democratic Russia? If you don't even imagine it, how can it ever happen?

Your guff about the Russian psyche precluding it is just that, guff.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Why on earth wouldn't people (particularly Rusdians) dream of regime change and a democratic Russia? If you don't even imagine it, how can it ever happen?

Your guff about the Russian psyche precluding it is just that, guff.
Click to expand...
Haven't we done this one? People's imagination is shaped by their material circumstances. "In the social production that men carry on, they enter into relations of production that are indispensable and independent of their will."
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Why on earth wouldn't people (particularly Rusdians) dream of regime change and a democratic Russia? If you don't even imagine it, how can it ever happen?

Your guff about the Russian psyche precluding it is just that, guff.
Click to expand...
(Just clicked 'like' instead of 'reply'. )

Can you detail the posts where I've talked about anything like 'the Russian psyche,' whatever that may be? Nice to see people still doing the 'reply indignantly to what you want somebody to have said instead of what they have said' thing.

Evidently some Russians do dream of a democratic Russia, and their imaginations doubtlessly run as wildly over everything as those of people on here. And evidently many others don't. So what?
 
Idris2002 said:
Haven't we done this one? People's imagination is shaped by their material circumstances. "In the social production that men carry on, they enter into relations of production that are indispensable and independent of their will."
Click to expand...
What’s that quote then? I don’t understand it.
 
kebabking said:
True, but it also shows that trusting Putin is a bad idea.

As ever in the world of grown ups, very different things can be true at the same time:

It's a terror attack - rather like Salisbury - a ridiculously convoluted and error prone way of killing someone that makes Putin look more Bond Villain than just ruthless and efficient. It'll also instil fear.

It shows that the ridiculously long kill chain was secure from Freinds of Prigozhin - how many people must of been in on it: Putin's office, Minister of Defence's office, Chief of Staff's office, military district, SAM unit, air traffic control, people at the airport (baggage handlers?) to confirm which plane Progozin got on - every one of these links could of had a leak, but didn't.

It shows that Putin can pull off a 'spectacular', but it also shows that Putin feels he needs to - that he's so offended by Prigozhin that a jail cell, or a car bomb, or two bullets to the head aren't enough.

Putin undoubtedly did a clever thing - he used soft words to disarm the rebellion /coup/mutiny/whatever at a time when he was obviously uncertain about the support he had from the military and national guard, and then when he was much more secure, and they thought they were, he pounced, and destroyed Wagner.

But in closing one door, he's opened another - that he can't be trusted.

I think a live Prigozhin, for all Wagner's usefulness for Russian foreign policy, was simply a headache/danger/signal-to-others that Putin couldn't live with - and in his position, I'd agree.

Putin is undoubtedly in a stronger position than he was 8 weeks ago - the other side of that coin is that it's been shown to all that half measures will only get you killed, so....

To a large extent the fragility of Putin's government remains - as Wagner went north the Army didn't get involved, Rosgvardyia took the day off, and the FSB failed to notice the planning. None of those organisations have been shaken up, none have had their leaders replaced. It's possible that the military is going to get a shoeing now Vlad feels secure, but based on past intelligence/security disasters, both FSB and Rosgvardyia will be left alone despite being the biggest culprits.

Perhaps the only certainty this achieves that that we can now solidly put to bed the fantasy that Prigozhins mutiny/coup/whatever was a put up job by Uncle Vlad the Master Strategist....
Click to expand...
there were people left in the world who thought Putin was trustworthy?
 
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