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The 2023 Russian Coup.

All I mean is has it been confirmed for definite that he was on the plane. I simply don't know, as I haven' seen anything yet.
Evidence he wasn't on the plane would be much easier to get then evidence he was. That none has come out (like him saying he wasn't on it) is a strong indication he was. Unless he is using it as cover to go into hiding.
 
In other news it was sneaked out a few minutes before Prigozhin’s unfortunate meeting with anti-aircraft fire that General Surovikin has been sacked.

Not clear if this means a P45 or taken to the local woods wearing the condemned man’s hessian headwear. No one has seen him alive since he was taken into custody.

I already mentioned this upthread. It's interesting timing at the least.
 
Anyway, whatever is happening, it's all very exciting, just like 'the June coup,' and a lot better than the telly.
 
This would be a very elaborate way to fake death unless the state played a part, it’s not like he would be able to take command of an air defence battery to organise this.

It still might not be Putin behind this, there are separate factions in the military with grudges. We may never know.
I'm sure he is dead, but him being alive will rank as one of the more plausible conspiracy theories out there. Although they will be wrong about one thing. He won't have planned it. If he wasn't on the plane it would be just luck or because he got word of something happening and after it went down he fucked off into hiding.
 
I'm sure he is dead, but him being alive will rank as one of the more plausible conspiracy theories out there. Although they will be wrong about one thing. He won't have planned it. If he wasn't on the plane it would be just luck or because he got word of something happening and after it went down he fucked off into hiding.
Maybe he swapped planes with his daughter
 
'Seemingly.' I think he probably was, but a Telegram channel, even his own, isn't necessarily the word.

They were, after all, telling the world that a coup was in motion. It wasn't.
A coup attempt was in motion. You might not have got pissed there, but Rostov is has a population of over a million and is a major military command centre, but it fell to Wagner who went on to send their troops halfway to Moscow. The fact that the Wagner Putsch failed doesn't mean it didn't happen. It was an indication of the regime's weakness, as was the prevarication, up until today over its leader. This assassination and whatever has happened to Surovikin are unlikely to make it any stronger.
 
A coup attempt was in motion. You might not have got pissed there, but Rostov is has a population of over a million and is a major military command centre, but it fell to Wagner who went on to send their troops halfway to Moscow. The fact that the Wagner Putsch failed doesn't mean it didn't happen. It was an indication of the regime's weakness, as was the prevarication, up until today over its leader. This assassination and whatever has happened to Surovikin are unlikely to make it any stronger.
Prigozhin and co. might have been making some kind of point, but it wasn't a serious coup attempt for reasons already outlined. It couldn't possibly have succeeded. Nobody but the people involved really know anything about the reasons for the subsequent apparent prevarication. You may well turn out to be right, and I wrong, but if the regime is weak who is poised to take over?

I'd be prepared to bet you that in a year's time Putin, if he hasn't been taken by natural causes, will still be at the helm and the war in Ukraine still going on.
 
A coup attempt was in motion. You might not have got pissed there, but Rostov is has a population of over a million and is a major military command centre, but it fell to Wagner who went on to send their troops halfway to Moscow. The fact that the Wagner Putsch failed doesn't mean it didn't happen. It was an indication of the regime's weakness, as was the prevarication, up until today over its leader. This assassination and whatever has happened to Surovikin are unlikely to make it any stronger.
A hate to say it but I'm kind of with RD2003 here. This was not really a coup. There was a massive inflation of its importance and chance of toppling Putin at the time. I have head it described as a mutiny rather than a coup, and I think that is the best description of it.
 
Someone who’d managed to climb to such position of power and influence clearly can’t be that stupid or naive. So I continue to struggle to understand his mindset when he decided to go for broke with the coup, and in particular what made him call it off so quickly.

I don’t buy the argument that he called it all off to avoid Russian blood being spilled. Only a complete idiot would have expected the entirety of the Russian AF to disobey orders. If anything, I reckon he would have been astonished at the ease and bloodless manner his forces had been progressing in the first day. Before launching the coup, even if he genuinely thought he could reach Moscow and take over the Kremlin, there’s no way he wasn’t expecting heavy casualties on both sides.

What the fuck was he told that afternoon that made him change his mind? He probably knew Putin more intimately than most others. Either you think someone you’ve known for many years is likely to, say, go nuclear, or you don’t. Surely he would have considered Putin’s likely reaction to a coup and decided he would be bluffing about any doomsday threats he might predictably make on the day?

And worse still, was he really that fucking naive to think that Putin was going to honour any peace agreement after he handed him the biggest humiliation of his life? Perhaps an assassination would have been unavoidable in the long term, but at least don’t fucking return to Russia ffs :D

Funny as fuck anyway. And good riddance.
 
A hate to say it but I'm kind of with RD2003 here. This was not really a coup. There was a massive inflation of its importance and chance of toppling Putin at the time. I have head it described as a mutiny rather than a coup, and I think that is the best description of it.

Not so sure. Putin didn't seem to be in on the protest against Shoigu and Gerasimov. This means big shot billionaire was moving an army through Russia without permission and towards the capitol and was expecting help from the army that backed out. Also it appears it was threats against Prigozhin's family to be what actually stopped him. Prigozhin was angry with the military heads but at some point that caries over to Putin. The motive was there.
 
Someone who’d managed to climb to such position of power and influence clearly can’t be that stupid or naive. So I continue to struggle to understand his mindset when he decided to go for broke with the coup, and in particular what made him call it off so quickly.
I dont think its that unusual for their successes to go to their head, and for that to interfere with their decision making. He overestimated himself.

As for why his 'coup' was called off so quickly, he probably needed support from certain quarters to emerge at a key moment, and when that didnt happen new plans were required, an offer was made and he took it.

As some others said earlier, his death was not a surprise.
 
Not so sure. Putin didn't seem to be in on the protest against Shoigu and Gerasimov. This means big shot billionaire was moving an army through Russia without permission and towards the capitol and was expecting help from the army that backed out. Also it appears it was threats against Prigozhin's family to be what actually stopped him. Prigozhin was angry with the military heads but at some point that caries over to Putin. The motive was there.

So you don't think he'd weighed up the inevitable threats to his family beforehand and these came as a complete surprise?

You think he was expecting help from the army? What help? Where's the evidence they were going to help but backed out?

If he was already angry with the military heads why would he have expected help from the army?
 
So you don't think he'd weighed up the inevitable threats to his family beforehand and these came as a complete surprise?

You think he was expecting help from the army? What help? Where's the evidence they were going to help but backed out?

If he was already angry with the military heads why would he have expected help from the army?
High stakes strong-arm blow-hard approaches to life require those sorts of gambles.

Coups often involve trying to gain momentum and banking on certain forms of support from within that are far from certain until the moment of truth arrives.
 
Someone who’d managed to climb to such position of power and influence clearly can’t be that stupid or naive. So I continue to struggle to understand his mindset when he decided to go for broke with the coup, and in particular what made him call it off so quickly.

I don’t buy the argument that he called it all off to avoid Russian blood being spilled. Only a complete idiot would have expected the entirety of the Russian AF to disobey orders. If anything, I reckon he would have been astonished at the ease and bloodless manner his forces had been progressing in the first day. Before launching the coup, even if he genuinely thought he could reach Moscow and take over the Kremlin, there’s no way he wasn’t expecting heavy casualties on both sides.

What the fuck was he told that afternoon that made him change his mind? He probably knew Putin more intimately than most others. Either you think someone you’ve known for many years is likely to, say, go nuclear, or you don’t. Surely he would have considered Putin’s likely reaction to a coup and decided he would be bluffing about any doomsday threats he might predictably make on the day?

And worse still, was he really that fucking naive to think that Putin was going to honour any peace agreement after he handed him the biggest humiliation of his life? Perhaps an assassination would have been unavoidable in the long term, but at least don’t fucking return to Russia ffs :D

Funny as fuck anyway. And good riddance.
It isn't funny really though, is it? Not like the Two Ronnies or Peep Show are funny (or can be.) It's just history repeating itself as tragedy in new but recognisable forms, and there is no end to it. We can only laugh as we're not involved but inattentively watching it like a sometimes compelling TV drama.

People should not expect events in Russia to unfold in ways that we can fully comprehend here. (And yes, I know this as I frequently used to go there 30 years ago, and several times since, blah blah save other posters the time etc.) And in this there's nothing that unique about Russia, as it goes for most of the planet and probably always will.
 
A hate to say it but I'm kind of with RD2003 here. This was not really a coup. There was a massive inflation of its importance and chance of toppling Putin at the time. I have head it described as a mutiny rather than a coup, and I think that is the best description of it.
It wasn't a coup because it didn't succeed. It was an attempted coup. As to being a "mutiny", it wasn't an internal revolt against the military authorities by those of a lower rank. It was an attempt by an organised autonomous military entity to change, by force, the government.

Anyway, mutinies can be very effective. The Indian mutiny of 1857 destroyed the East India Company, which had controlled the country for the previous century.
 
He’s a master of disguise, no chance he’ll be recognised.

View attachment 388550

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"That's right, Mr Grace, we take Belgorod, and then on to Rostov..."
 
High stakes strong-arm blow-hard approaches to life require those sorts of gambles.

Coups often involve trying to gain momentum and banking on certain forms of support from within that are far from certain until the moment of truth arrives.

Not very sun tzu. Or zapatista. Or Red Action.

If you're gambling, you're doing it wrong. Fight when you know the odds are in your favour.

Not even sure he was fighting anyway. Worst 'coup' ever.
 
Someone who’d managed to climb to such position of power and influence clearly can’t be that stupid or naive. So I continue to struggle to understand his mindset when he decided to go for broke with the coup, and in particular what made him call it off so quickly.

I don’t buy the argument that he called it all off to avoid Russian blood being spilled. Only a complete idiot would have expected the entirety of the Russian AF to disobey orders. If anything, I reckon he would have been astonished at the ease and bloodless manner his forces had been progressing in the first day. Before launching the coup, even if he genuinely thought he could reach Moscow and take over the Kremlin, there’s no way he wasn’t expecting heavy casualties on both sides.

What the fuck was he told that afternoon that made him change his mind? He probably knew Putin more intimately than most others. Either you think someone you’ve known for many years is likely to, say, go nuclear, or you don’t. Surely he would have considered Putin’s likely reaction to a coup and decided he would be bluffing about any doomsday threats he might predictably make on the day?

And worse still, was he really that fucking naive to think that Putin was going to honour any peace agreement after he handed him the biggest humiliation of his life? Perhaps an assassination would have been unavoidable in the long term, but at least don’t fucking return to Russia ffs :D

Funny as fuck anyway. And good riddance.
Remember that the target of his coup was the military leadership, not Putin. He was (mostly) critical of military leadership for misleading Putin, only rarely having harsh words for the ‘boss’. Given his closeness to Putin maybe he felt protected? Maybe he expected others to join his mutiny, yet they didn’t step up (there were reports of families being threatened, which may have curtailed this). After delivering Bakhmut he may have thought he had some status he could bank on. That may have been what kept him alive after the march on Moscow halted.

His death might not be at Putin’s hand, there are other competing factions in the military and security services with the motive/means to do it. I guess we might get some indication when we hear the official state narrative (and how the sanctioned media put a spin on it), whether there is an admission that he was shot down, whether it’s portrayed as an accident or a deliberate act, or if something completely different is made up and the finger pointed at Ukraine/Jewish space lasers or whatever.
 
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